So I wasnt 100% sure what I was going to get out of this analysis, but I thought about how offensive efficiency should determine what pace your offense runs at. my basis of this is, if a team averages a touchdown on, lets say, 25% of their possessions, should they be running at a high pace or a low pace? it really shouldn't matter, as having 8 possessions a game means you score 14 points and 16 possessions a game means you score 28. Twice as much scoring for twice as many possessions. But as we all know, stats never reflect the game exactly to a dime. now you have to look at, what if they slightly over perform or under perform, so an additional score, or 1 less score means a range of 7-21 or 21-35 respectively. (Possessions are per team, so 8 possessions a game are 8 for team 8, 8 for team b = 16 total. 16 possession = 16 team A + 16 Team B = 32 total)
Obviously you have to play another team and they may have a better or a worse offense than you, and you should adjust to that. if that offense has an efficiency of 37.5% (3/8) touchdowns per drive, they would, on average, score 21 points in an 8 possession game and 42 points per game on 16 possessions. Just like before, we have to account for a better or worse game and not exact stats, so in 8 possessions, team B scores between 14 - 28 points and during 16 possessions, 35 - 49. So if you are team A, which pace do you run at? Well, in the 8 possession game, team A scores 7-21 points and team B scores 14 - 28. there is a slight possibility of team A winning the game, but only if they have a good game AND team B has a bad game. In situation 2 with a 16 possession game, team A scores 21-35 and team B scores 35-49. In the BEST case scenario, team A can only TIE team B. Therefore, teams with bad offenses should run at a slower pace than those with a better offense, and better offenses should try to run at a faster pace.
This is what my analysis is based off of. I selected drives per game between 8 and 16 by cherrypicking games such as low scoring, high scoring, blowouts, lots of turnovers, etc. and all those ended up between 18 and 30 total drives, meaning 9-15. expanding that just for thoroughness.
so this next picture you will not be able to read at all because it is so small. idk how to make it bigger, but this is to show the trend with each offense as a whole. this goes from 3-63 points.
NOTES:
1. I only accounted for TDs and FGs as anything else would be impacted by the defensive side of the ball.
2. The data for drive efficiency (tds per drive and fgs per drive) were provided from a previous analysis done by @ErMurazor (thanks ER!). I asked him if he wants payment for it, but he said no, so give me all the profits (Double thanks!)
3. yes, you cant read it. look at the colors. Don't worry, I will go into more depth later.
Order from top to bottom: Las Vegas, Orange County, Arizona, Baltimore
Order from top to bottom: Yellowknife, Philadelphia, Colorado, San Jose
What does this mean?
well, you can see that Orange County and Arizona have good offenses and Colorado and Las Vegas have terrible ones. whats new? well this shows that the more possessions really allows you to have almost an exponential growth in score distribution. Lets look at each team closer.
Las Vegas
the bottom 3 rows are Average, standard deviation, and the lower end of the 95th percentile (2 sigma). The 95th percentile is the row that I want to look at the most for this. Despite what pace the offense runs at, Las Vegas should score somewhere between 6 and 17 points each game, which holds true looking back at their schedule as they scored within that range in 9 of 14 of their games. The great thing about the Legion is that regardless of what pace, they have a legitimate chance at all of those scores below 17 points, so the best course of action would be to minimize their opponents scoring, therefore running almost exclusively at a slower pace.
Orange County
oh, this one is fun. Almost no one can match the offensive power of the Otters and they are only rivaled by the Outlaws because of their phenomenal defense. This chart practically picks up where the Legion left off as they are built completely differently.
OK I GOT REALLY TIRED, SO LET ME POST THE REST OF THE PICTURES AND I WILL COME BACK FOR ANALYSIS LATER
Arizona
Baltimore
Yellowknife
Philadelphia
Colorado
San Jose
Obviously you have to play another team and they may have a better or a worse offense than you, and you should adjust to that. if that offense has an efficiency of 37.5% (3/8) touchdowns per drive, they would, on average, score 21 points in an 8 possession game and 42 points per game on 16 possessions. Just like before, we have to account for a better or worse game and not exact stats, so in 8 possessions, team B scores between 14 - 28 points and during 16 possessions, 35 - 49. So if you are team A, which pace do you run at? Well, in the 8 possession game, team A scores 7-21 points and team B scores 14 - 28. there is a slight possibility of team A winning the game, but only if they have a good game AND team B has a bad game. In situation 2 with a 16 possession game, team A scores 21-35 and team B scores 35-49. In the BEST case scenario, team A can only TIE team B. Therefore, teams with bad offenses should run at a slower pace than those with a better offense, and better offenses should try to run at a faster pace.
This is what my analysis is based off of. I selected drives per game between 8 and 16 by cherrypicking games such as low scoring, high scoring, blowouts, lots of turnovers, etc. and all those ended up between 18 and 30 total drives, meaning 9-15. expanding that just for thoroughness.
so this next picture you will not be able to read at all because it is so small. idk how to make it bigger, but this is to show the trend with each offense as a whole. this goes from 3-63 points.
NOTES:
1. I only accounted for TDs and FGs as anything else would be impacted by the defensive side of the ball.
2. The data for drive efficiency (tds per drive and fgs per drive) were provided from a previous analysis done by @ErMurazor (thanks ER!). I asked him if he wants payment for it, but he said no, so give me all the profits (Double thanks!)
3. yes, you cant read it. look at the colors. Don't worry, I will go into more depth later.
Order from top to bottom: Las Vegas, Orange County, Arizona, Baltimore
Order from top to bottom: Yellowknife, Philadelphia, Colorado, San Jose
What does this mean?
well, you can see that Orange County and Arizona have good offenses and Colorado and Las Vegas have terrible ones. whats new? well this shows that the more possessions really allows you to have almost an exponential growth in score distribution. Lets look at each team closer.
Las Vegas
the bottom 3 rows are Average, standard deviation, and the lower end of the 95th percentile (2 sigma). The 95th percentile is the row that I want to look at the most for this. Despite what pace the offense runs at, Las Vegas should score somewhere between 6 and 17 points each game, which holds true looking back at their schedule as they scored within that range in 9 of 14 of their games. The great thing about the Legion is that regardless of what pace, they have a legitimate chance at all of those scores below 17 points, so the best course of action would be to minimize their opponents scoring, therefore running almost exclusively at a slower pace.
Orange County
oh, this one is fun. Almost no one can match the offensive power of the Otters and they are only rivaled by the Outlaws because of their phenomenal defense. This chart practically picks up where the Legion left off as they are built completely differently.
OK I GOT REALLY TIRED, SO LET ME POST THE REST OF THE PICTURES AND I WILL COME BACK FOR ANALYSIS LATER
Arizona
Baltimore
Yellowknife
Philadelphia
Colorado
San Jose