02-27-2020, 08:14 AM
(This post was last modified: 03-01-2020, 10:37 PM by JKortesi81.)
I’m a huge fantasy football fan and more recently I’ve gotten into dynasty fantasy football where you keep the same team year over year. While many of the same rules apply in this format, one thing that building a strong team relies on is the ability to draft rookies well. As such, I’ve dipped my toe into the fountain of knowledge known as r/dynastyff where hot takes abound and the echo chamber is quite loud. But amidst constant bickering about whether or not Sammy Watkins will ever be good there truly is a lot of great information to be gained. These days it’s all about metrics, but one metric that has proven to be quite reliable when it comes to predicting success at the wide receiver position is a metric called “Dominator Rating”. As explained on Player Profiler: “First outlined by Frank DuPont in the book Game Plan, the college dominator rating represents a player’s “market share” or his percentage of his team’s offensive production.”
In terms of WR and TE, offensive production means receiving yards and touchdowns. You can also calculate dominator rating for RB, but at least for the NFL there is not nearly as strong of a correlation for the hit rate of RBs.
The dominator rating is not without its flaws of course. For one thing, touchdowns are a significant variable as half of the equation and touchdown production in the NFL can be pretty volatile, even for elite players. Just ask any fantasy player that has owned Julio Jones before. Additionally, the WR position can be played in so many different ways that while the dominator rating can give an idea of whether or not a player can produce statistically, it doesn’t show you if they are a good blocker for example or if they can play in a pro style offense. So maybe it’s a little bit better for predicting fantasy success than actually being useful to an NFL team, but in a lot of ways these things go hand in hand. Additionally, age adjusted metrics have shown to be an even better indicator of a player being a success. So, the breakout age, the age at which a player has a 20% dominator rating has actually shown to be an even stronger indicator that a player will hit in the NFL. Also, dominator rating is certainly not the end all be all for determining player success despite the correlation. Looking at Julio Jones again, he had a dominator rating of 34% which is considered to be excellent, but Tyreek Hill in college had a dominator rating of 19%. He didn’t even have a season good enough dominator wise to allow us to measure a breakout age.
What the dominator rating can do is help us to gain perspective on a player’s production beyond just looking at the counting stats. A WR in a run heavy offense certainly isn’t going to get as many receiving yards as a player in an air raid system. But if they’re the guy getting a huge piece of the pie while getting double covered that’s almost more impressive than someone just getting a smaller piece of a pass friendly offense even if the numbers look the same. This was exactly the case with Calvin Johnson when he played in the triple option offense at Georgia Tech. In his Junior year he posted 1200 yards and 15 touchdowns which of course sounds fantastic on its own but that translated to a ridiculous 55% dominator rating (98th percentile).
Ok, so maybe you didn’t need to know any of this and you just want to look at numbers and see how players stack up. That’s totally fine, I just want to explain why I find Dominator Rating interesting and useful for the NFL (and fantasy) at least and why I thought it would be fun to try for the S21 class. Of course, considering DSFL players are capped at 250 TPE, you simply cannot use Dominator Rating in the same way as you would with an NFL rookie who is certainly further along in their physical development. Not to mention we have no way of using dominator rating for breakout age since everyone is the same age. What I hope we can do is maybe reveal some players that performed well in their situation despite numbers that don’t stand out at face value and of course maybe start some fun discussion.
So without further delay, let’s get into it.
As I said before, Dominator Rating is going to have the best correlation for WR versus any other offensive position. Having not done this before for previous DSFL seasons, I have no historical data to base tiers or percentiles off of, so I will simply be using some general guidelines from Player Profiler to break down the players into tiers and have a discussion, namely starting with a 35% Dominator Rating as the cutoff for the elite tier.
The Elite: Raheem Okusi (47.7%)
Yes, there is only one player in this class that can be considered elite in terms of Dominator Rating and that’s Okusi. While his statline of 37 receptions, 474 yards and 3 touchdowns doesn’t seem all that impressive on paper, when you consider Portland only had 1339 passing yards and 5 passing touchdowns we see the true nature of the dominator rating. Okusi was locked into an abysmal offense in Portland and as bad of a season as they had, without Okusi they may not have won any games. Okusi isn’t going to get any love on awards night but this shows he at least deserves some recognition amongst the best in the class.
The Excellent: Tequila Sunrise (34.1%), Remon Kurisito (32.3%), Chris Kross (29.7%)
We have three players in the next tier where we start to see some names that may be a little more familiar to most readers. I’m now sure if Sunrise is a RB or WR after looking at the draft thread and the index but whichever it is, he was one heck of a receiver this past season alongside his teammate Remon Kurisito who we see third on this list. These two made up a two headed monster for Norfolk in the passing game. Despite siphoning from each other when it comes to Dominator Rating, this shows just how dominant both of them were and why the Norfolk passing game was so effective unlike say Portland’s where it revolved around one player. As the highest TPE WR in the class, it’s no surprise to see Kross rounding out this tier. Kross was an extremely effective receiver with a great yardage total and one of the best yards per reception marks in this class. Where he suffers in the dominator rating is having only two touchdowns on the year, but the fact that he still maintains such a high dominator rating despite that is actually more evidence that he deserves the first round grade that many analysts have given him. Whether or not he can become more of a scoring weapon remains to be seen but he’s dripping with talent so it may not matter.
The Great: Jerome Davis (24.0%), Alyx Sabor (23.9%), Justice Green (22.5%)
Jerome Davis is the second highest receiver in this class when it comes to TPE, so it’s a bit surprising to see that he didn’t take over his team in the DSFL. Not that 24% is anything to scoff at, but it doesn’t shout elite like you would hope. Davis is a victim of the touchdown factor like Cross when it comes to missing the elite tier. Despite being tied for the most receiving touchdowns in this class, Davis only had a small piece of the 19 touchdown pie in Minnesota. I think he’ll gladly trade that pie for a championship any day though. Sabor and Green are the last two players to have a higher than 20% dominator rating in the class. I won’t mince words, when it comes to this class these two just aren’t on the same level as other players, but they made the most of their situations considering the teams they played for were the bottom two in terms of passing yards. Perhaps this is where the dominator rating starts to fall apart a little bit, however considering only 4 players in this class have more than 120 TPE it’s to be expected.
The Good: Red Arrow (17.6%), Everett Woodward (17.4%), Rusty Nails (14.7%)
Running out of steam a little but here, I just can’t write media like I used to. Red Arrow is pretty far down the list considering his TPE total relative to this class, but again a victim of not scoring enough touchdowns. I think if he can keep up his work ethic though he’ll prove to be a valuable asset. Woodward has the opposite problem with a nice handful of touchdowns but not enough of the Minnesota pie in terms of yardage and touchdowns. Is this where the Dominator Rating is flawed? Maybe, but I like to think it shows just how productive and how much of a stand out you have to be in multiple facets of the game in order to be elite. Nails is the first player on the list to show up for Tijuana all the way down here despite being their leading receiver and having the second most receptions in this class. Where did all the receiving production in Tijuana come from then?
The Rest (<10%)
There’s not much to talk about here. The dropoff in terms of receptions for these players from the rest of the class is huge and with none of them getting into the endzone, their dominator ratings are in the tank. I had a lot of hope for Grand Salami and Smolder Bravestone, but I also had a lot of hope for Stuart Little 4 so there you go.
Conclusion
Look, no offense to Raheem Okusi but nobody actually thinks he's the best player in the class even if you did want to put some stock into this production profile. But the fact that he was able to do this despite being the obvious go to option in his team and demanding defensive coverage means he's not as bad as his TPE total may imply. Granted if he's not a dedicated earner it really doesn't matter. I think what's really valuable here is just confirming that the top guys really are the top guys and that they know how to build well to be successful even with just a handfull of TPE. Only real red flag from this is Red Arrow (heh) I would say, but it’s always important to use context to discern what may have happened when you evaluate a prospect. You can’t rely on a single metric alone. You have to use their production profile, measurables, tape, draft capital and of course what number they wear to really get a good read on how well a player will do.
@Voltaqe @Get_Right @Lemon @RedArrow12c @SaborTheWaverunner @Raheem James @Big Trusss @Grand Salami @YoungTB @howiejriii @CoolEverett
If people thought this was interesting, I can try and put together the ones for TE and RB if I have time. Thanks for reading.
In terms of WR and TE, offensive production means receiving yards and touchdowns. You can also calculate dominator rating for RB, but at least for the NFL there is not nearly as strong of a correlation for the hit rate of RBs.
The dominator rating is not without its flaws of course. For one thing, touchdowns are a significant variable as half of the equation and touchdown production in the NFL can be pretty volatile, even for elite players. Just ask any fantasy player that has owned Julio Jones before. Additionally, the WR position can be played in so many different ways that while the dominator rating can give an idea of whether or not a player can produce statistically, it doesn’t show you if they are a good blocker for example or if they can play in a pro style offense. So maybe it’s a little bit better for predicting fantasy success than actually being useful to an NFL team, but in a lot of ways these things go hand in hand. Additionally, age adjusted metrics have shown to be an even better indicator of a player being a success. So, the breakout age, the age at which a player has a 20% dominator rating has actually shown to be an even stronger indicator that a player will hit in the NFL. Also, dominator rating is certainly not the end all be all for determining player success despite the correlation. Looking at Julio Jones again, he had a dominator rating of 34% which is considered to be excellent, but Tyreek Hill in college had a dominator rating of 19%. He didn’t even have a season good enough dominator wise to allow us to measure a breakout age.
What the dominator rating can do is help us to gain perspective on a player’s production beyond just looking at the counting stats. A WR in a run heavy offense certainly isn’t going to get as many receiving yards as a player in an air raid system. But if they’re the guy getting a huge piece of the pie while getting double covered that’s almost more impressive than someone just getting a smaller piece of a pass friendly offense even if the numbers look the same. This was exactly the case with Calvin Johnson when he played in the triple option offense at Georgia Tech. In his Junior year he posted 1200 yards and 15 touchdowns which of course sounds fantastic on its own but that translated to a ridiculous 55% dominator rating (98th percentile).
Ok, so maybe you didn’t need to know any of this and you just want to look at numbers and see how players stack up. That’s totally fine, I just want to explain why I find Dominator Rating interesting and useful for the NFL (and fantasy) at least and why I thought it would be fun to try for the S21 class. Of course, considering DSFL players are capped at 250 TPE, you simply cannot use Dominator Rating in the same way as you would with an NFL rookie who is certainly further along in their physical development. Not to mention we have no way of using dominator rating for breakout age since everyone is the same age. What I hope we can do is maybe reveal some players that performed well in their situation despite numbers that don’t stand out at face value and of course maybe start some fun discussion.
So without further delay, let’s get into it.
As I said before, Dominator Rating is going to have the best correlation for WR versus any other offensive position. Having not done this before for previous DSFL seasons, I have no historical data to base tiers or percentiles off of, so I will simply be using some general guidelines from Player Profiler to break down the players into tiers and have a discussion, namely starting with a 35% Dominator Rating as the cutoff for the elite tier.
The Elite: Raheem Okusi (47.7%)
Yes, there is only one player in this class that can be considered elite in terms of Dominator Rating and that’s Okusi. While his statline of 37 receptions, 474 yards and 3 touchdowns doesn’t seem all that impressive on paper, when you consider Portland only had 1339 passing yards and 5 passing touchdowns we see the true nature of the dominator rating. Okusi was locked into an abysmal offense in Portland and as bad of a season as they had, without Okusi they may not have won any games. Okusi isn’t going to get any love on awards night but this shows he at least deserves some recognition amongst the best in the class.
The Excellent: Tequila Sunrise (34.1%), Remon Kurisito (32.3%), Chris Kross (29.7%)
We have three players in the next tier where we start to see some names that may be a little more familiar to most readers. I’m now sure if Sunrise is a RB or WR after looking at the draft thread and the index but whichever it is, he was one heck of a receiver this past season alongside his teammate Remon Kurisito who we see third on this list. These two made up a two headed monster for Norfolk in the passing game. Despite siphoning from each other when it comes to Dominator Rating, this shows just how dominant both of them were and why the Norfolk passing game was so effective unlike say Portland’s where it revolved around one player. As the highest TPE WR in the class, it’s no surprise to see Kross rounding out this tier. Kross was an extremely effective receiver with a great yardage total and one of the best yards per reception marks in this class. Where he suffers in the dominator rating is having only two touchdowns on the year, but the fact that he still maintains such a high dominator rating despite that is actually more evidence that he deserves the first round grade that many analysts have given him. Whether or not he can become more of a scoring weapon remains to be seen but he’s dripping with talent so it may not matter.
The Great: Jerome Davis (24.0%), Alyx Sabor (23.9%), Justice Green (22.5%)
Jerome Davis is the second highest receiver in this class when it comes to TPE, so it’s a bit surprising to see that he didn’t take over his team in the DSFL. Not that 24% is anything to scoff at, but it doesn’t shout elite like you would hope. Davis is a victim of the touchdown factor like Cross when it comes to missing the elite tier. Despite being tied for the most receiving touchdowns in this class, Davis only had a small piece of the 19 touchdown pie in Minnesota. I think he’ll gladly trade that pie for a championship any day though. Sabor and Green are the last two players to have a higher than 20% dominator rating in the class. I won’t mince words, when it comes to this class these two just aren’t on the same level as other players, but they made the most of their situations considering the teams they played for were the bottom two in terms of passing yards. Perhaps this is where the dominator rating starts to fall apart a little bit, however considering only 4 players in this class have more than 120 TPE it’s to be expected.
The Good: Red Arrow (17.6%), Everett Woodward (17.4%), Rusty Nails (14.7%)
Running out of steam a little but here, I just can’t write media like I used to. Red Arrow is pretty far down the list considering his TPE total relative to this class, but again a victim of not scoring enough touchdowns. I think if he can keep up his work ethic though he’ll prove to be a valuable asset. Woodward has the opposite problem with a nice handful of touchdowns but not enough of the Minnesota pie in terms of yardage and touchdowns. Is this where the Dominator Rating is flawed? Maybe, but I like to think it shows just how productive and how much of a stand out you have to be in multiple facets of the game in order to be elite. Nails is the first player on the list to show up for Tijuana all the way down here despite being their leading receiver and having the second most receptions in this class. Where did all the receiving production in Tijuana come from then?
The Rest (<10%)
There’s not much to talk about here. The dropoff in terms of receptions for these players from the rest of the class is huge and with none of them getting into the endzone, their dominator ratings are in the tank. I had a lot of hope for Grand Salami and Smolder Bravestone, but I also had a lot of hope for Stuart Little 4 so there you go.
Conclusion
Look, no offense to Raheem Okusi but nobody actually thinks he's the best player in the class even if you did want to put some stock into this production profile. But the fact that he was able to do this despite being the obvious go to option in his team and demanding defensive coverage means he's not as bad as his TPE total may imply. Granted if he's not a dedicated earner it really doesn't matter. I think what's really valuable here is just confirming that the top guys really are the top guys and that they know how to build well to be successful even with just a handfull of TPE. Only real red flag from this is Red Arrow (heh) I would say, but it’s always important to use context to discern what may have happened when you evaluate a prospect. You can’t rely on a single metric alone. You have to use their production profile, measurables, tape, draft capital and of course what number they wear to really get a good read on how well a player will do.
@Voltaqe @Get_Right @Lemon @RedArrow12c @SaborTheWaverunner @Raheem James @Big Trusss @Grand Salami @YoungTB @howiejriii @CoolEverett
If people thought this was interesting, I can try and put together the ones for TE and RB if I have time. Thanks for reading.
[OPTION]===========================================
[OPTION]Regular Season Stats
[OPTION](S2) 14 Games Played
[OPTION](S3) 14 Games Played
[OPTION](S4) 14 Games Played
[OPTION](S5) 14 Games Played
[OPTION](S6) 14 Games Played
[OPTION](S7) 14 Games Played
[OPTION](S8) 14 Games Played
[OPTION]===========================================
[OPTION]Playoff Stats
[OPTION] 27839
[OPTION]===========================================
[OPTION]Trophy Case/Achievements:
[OPTION]Most Likely to Break the Team Bench When Sitting Down
[OPTION]Pumpkin Chuckin' Rally 2017 Semifinalist
[OPTION]Most Likely to Get Traded in S8 (T-1st)
[OPTION]Ultimus Champion S7, S8