[div align=\\\"center\\\"]DSFL FINAL POWER RANKINGS [/div]
TLDR:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Final power rankings for the DSFL are here. Every team finished within 1 point of their TPE rankings I made in the preseason, with the exception of the Grey Ducks who finished 2 ranks lower than their projected rank. This is likely due to having to play an 85 TPE QB at an equal rate to their 250 TPE maxed out QB. It could also be due to shitty sim luck. I tested this theory out by running a simple 1000 game sim test. I’m by no means a reliable source when it comes to team tactics and whatnot, so of course these results won’t be accurate to how the teams actually play. Regardless, the results will be posted down below. Thanks to all my DSFL readers who read these. These tend to get about 150% of the views my NSFL rankings get, likely due to the influx of new users that only read DSFL content. So, thanks again and I’ll see you all next season for the pre-season power rankings
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]METHOD[/div]
1. I updated all the TPE levels as per Friday April 3rd. This is BEFORE the final updates for the playoffs, since I won’t have time to do this on Sunday night
2. I took out a lot of inactives from each team after receiving some feedback. TPE levels should better reflect the on-field product
3. Reduced impact of the index by 50%. Teams don’t get hot, this is sim. Every week is a new week. Now, the index makes up 20% of a team’s score, as opposed to 30-40% in some cases.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]RESULTS[/div]
OFFENSIVE POWER RANKINGS
(number in brackets denotes TPE rankings)
1. Kansas City 2.0457 (2)
2. Myrtle Beach 2.0171 (3)
3. Tijuana 1.9460 (5)
4. Norfolk 1.9020 (6)
5. Portland 1.84933 (1)
6. Minnesota 1.7592 (4)
7. London 1.7542 (8)
8. Dallas 1.7136 (7)
DEFENSIVE POWER RANKINGS
(number in brackets denotes TPE rankings)
1. Kansas City 2.0063 (1) UP 1
2. Portland 2.0042 (2) DOWN 1
3. Myrtle Beach 1.8521 (3) UP 1
4. Norfolk 1.8070 (4) DOWN 1
5. Minnesota 1.7089 (6)
6. Dallas 1.6684 (5) UP 1
7. Tijuana 1.6246 (7) DOWN 1
8. London 1.6166 (8)
[div align=\\\"center\\\"] FINAL COMBINED POWER RANKINGS WITH INDEX[/div]
(First bracket number is purely stats/performance. Second number is TPE rankings)
1. Kansas City 2.5842 (1)(1)
2. Myrtle Beach 2.5658 (2)(3)
3. Portland 2.5508 (4)(2)
4. Norfolk 2.5212 (3)(5) UP 1
5. Tijuana 2.2377 (5)(6) UP 1
6. Minnesota 2.2371 (6)(4) UP 2
7. London 2.0894 (7)(8)
8. Dallas 2.0092 (8)(7) DOWN 4
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]The Teams[/div]
1. KCC closes out the season as our #1 team. Tied with MB in terms of wins, they edge out the Buccs with a better point differential and all-around better performance in terms of yards, with 2 more yards per game on the offensive side of the ball, and 8 less yards on the defensive side of the ball each game, on average. Doing the TPE update for this team, I couldn’t help but notice that this team really is as barebones as it gets, having just enough players for each position to have a base 22 player team. They have by far the least amount of waste. I calculated the ratio between total overall TPE and weighted TPE (what counts in a game) and their ratio came out to be 1.45. For comparison, Portland’s ratio was 1.72, Norfolk was 1.73 and the Buccs had a ratio of 1.89. A larger ratio indicates more depth at the cost of weakening an individual positions performance on any given snap. KCC seems like a team that quick simply, has been built to win an Ultimini this year. They come into the playoffs with the #1 offense and the #1 defense (although in terms of actual raw performance Portland does just barely edge them out. KCC’s overall edge comes through a slight TPE advantage). They are without a doubt my pick to win this years Ultimini. This doesn’t mean it will be easy however. Portland was my #2 coming into the season. Next weeks conference championship will be an all-out war with Portland’s ability to turn the ball over at any time presenting a constant threat to the Coyotes unstoppable offense.
2. Myrtle Beach comes in as a strong #2 and the likely pick in the SFC to challenge for the Ultimini. Coming in at #3 on my pre-season predictions, they come in this post season with the #2 Offense and #3 defense. As mentioned above, Myrtle Beach’s strength comes from their depth. At any point they can deploy a number of weapons both on offense and defense. They have an unbelievably deep wide receiver core and sport one of the best running backs in the league. They play the weakest of the 4 playoff teams next week for a chance to challenge for the Ultimini. This doesn’t mean next weeks game will easy. Norfolk has punched above their weight all season, coming in with the 3rd best overall stats in the league when averaging both offense and defense. Norfolk’s defense is especially well rounded with depth at LB. We are in for another treat here
3. Portland is our #3 team, and I can honestly say they have underperformed quite a bit this year. Prior to the pre-season I had them as my #2 team, and I said they could easily make an argument to be #1. I was met with a good amount of pushback to this idea, especially after last years performance. But Lo and behold here we are, with Portland with every chance to win next weeks matchup against the Coyotes. Even so, Portland has seriously underperformed on the offensive side of the ball. They come in ranked 5th, but when you subtract TPE and just look at performance, they are ranked 6th in terms of offensive yards and points. They put up a measly 248 points, compared to KCC’s 308. They put up 310 yards per game compared to KCC’s 347. Quite simply, they have not got it done. Portland needs to do their sim homework this weekend and figure out a way to break the KCC defense. If they can do that, I do believe they can have at least a 50/50 shot at this game. They’ll be on the road, but with their defense’s ability to create interceptions at any point, they can play their way into a win with some luck. This has the chance to be the game of the year and I for one am pumped to watch it
4. Norfolk comes in at #4. Norfolk has been a curious team to follow for sure. They’ve managed the most points out of any team in the league, despite putting up the 5th most yards per game. Norfolk is definitely a team that takes advantage of its opportunities and they’ll need to take advantage of anything the Buccs give them next week. They’ll be fairly limited in how they approach this game however, sporting the worst QB and WR core in the entire league. They’ll be forced to run this ball down MB’s throat, which is a pretty tough ask given the Buccs sport the 2nd best Dline in the DSFL and the 4th best LB core. Contrasting this to the Buccs offense, which has a fairly balanced style of attack, I do wonder how the Norfolk’s front 7 will hold up. Norfolk’s strength has come from its DB’s this year, with the 2nd best DB core in the league. Up front is a different story, where they have the 6th best and 7th best Dline and LB core respectively. This is going to be a very tough game for Norfolk. MB has all the advantages coming in, along with HFA.
5. Our first of the nonplayoff teams is Tijuana. I won’t say too much here. 4 straight losses from weeks 9-12, including losses to both expansion teams, really put the post season out of reach for the Luchadores.
6. Minnesota sort of redeemed themselves towards the end of the season. Put in reality it was too little too late. I did do some sim testing to see if they were actually just getting sim screwed. In 1000 games against the Buccs (500 at home and 500 on the road) they had a point differential of -3. The Buccs put up 60+ more yards on the Ducks per game (they did this on the road as well as at home). Now, of course I’m not using team strategies but these results speak for themselves, and I didn’t try this experiment without the Ducks 85 TPE QB. With some adjustments the Ducks probably could have done better but as it stands, they are out of this year’s post season after winning the Ultimini last year. Talk about Ultimini hangover?
7. London comes in at #7, and the answer to the question “whose better between the two expansion teams.” Despite coming into the season with a TPE disadvantage, they put up far better numbers offensively compared to the anemic Birddog offense, which mustered only 272 yards per game compared to the Royals 328. The Birddogs were slightly better on defense, the difference there was not enough to overcome the offensive deficit. Even so, I do think because of league rules, the Royals technically come in last place via the standings, and so the Royals do get the #1 pick in the DSFL draft. Somebody please correct me if I’m wrong however.
8. And finally, we have the Birddogs. 4 straight losses to end the season are never how you want to finish. Even so, the Birddogs can be incredibly proud of their week 5 win against the Buccs. With a strong foundation to build on, I suspect we will see both expansion teams contend for a playoff spot next year.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]Final Note[/div]
Thanks again to everyone for reading these. We managed to pump out one of every week. I’ll be testing some different ways of doing the math in the off season, but for the most part I’m happy with how these went. Ultimately, they’re based on TPE, and in the end the TPE was mostly right. There are some things I’d like to account for (like a WR4 probably getting less snaps as a WR1, yet they are weighed equally right now), but that’s a problem for another time. In the meantime, lets enjoy what will likely be a very exciting DSFL playoff.
1772 Words
TLDR:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Final power rankings for the DSFL are here. Every team finished within 1 point of their TPE rankings I made in the preseason, with the exception of the Grey Ducks who finished 2 ranks lower than their projected rank. This is likely due to having to play an 85 TPE QB at an equal rate to their 250 TPE maxed out QB. It could also be due to shitty sim luck. I tested this theory out by running a simple 1000 game sim test. I’m by no means a reliable source when it comes to team tactics and whatnot, so of course these results won’t be accurate to how the teams actually play. Regardless, the results will be posted down below. Thanks to all my DSFL readers who read these. These tend to get about 150% of the views my NSFL rankings get, likely due to the influx of new users that only read DSFL content. So, thanks again and I’ll see you all next season for the pre-season power rankings
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]METHOD[/div]
1. I updated all the TPE levels as per Friday April 3rd. This is BEFORE the final updates for the playoffs, since I won’t have time to do this on Sunday night
2. I took out a lot of inactives from each team after receiving some feedback. TPE levels should better reflect the on-field product
3. Reduced impact of the index by 50%. Teams don’t get hot, this is sim. Every week is a new week. Now, the index makes up 20% of a team’s score, as opposed to 30-40% in some cases.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]RESULTS[/div]
OFFENSIVE POWER RANKINGS
(number in brackets denotes TPE rankings)
1. Kansas City 2.0457 (2)
2. Myrtle Beach 2.0171 (3)
3. Tijuana 1.9460 (5)
4. Norfolk 1.9020 (6)
5. Portland 1.84933 (1)
6. Minnesota 1.7592 (4)
7. London 1.7542 (8)
8. Dallas 1.7136 (7)
DEFENSIVE POWER RANKINGS
(number in brackets denotes TPE rankings)
1. Kansas City 2.0063 (1) UP 1
2. Portland 2.0042 (2) DOWN 1
3. Myrtle Beach 1.8521 (3) UP 1
4. Norfolk 1.8070 (4) DOWN 1
5. Minnesota 1.7089 (6)
6. Dallas 1.6684 (5) UP 1
7. Tijuana 1.6246 (7) DOWN 1
8. London 1.6166 (8)
[div align=\\\"center\\\"] FINAL COMBINED POWER RANKINGS WITH INDEX[/div]
(First bracket number is purely stats/performance. Second number is TPE rankings)
1. Kansas City 2.5842 (1)(1)
2. Myrtle Beach 2.5658 (2)(3)
3. Portland 2.5508 (4)(2)
4. Norfolk 2.5212 (3)(5) UP 1
5. Tijuana 2.2377 (5)(6) UP 1
6. Minnesota 2.2371 (6)(4) UP 2
7. London 2.0894 (7)(8)
8. Dallas 2.0092 (8)(7) DOWN 4
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]The Teams[/div]
1. KCC closes out the season as our #1 team. Tied with MB in terms of wins, they edge out the Buccs with a better point differential and all-around better performance in terms of yards, with 2 more yards per game on the offensive side of the ball, and 8 less yards on the defensive side of the ball each game, on average. Doing the TPE update for this team, I couldn’t help but notice that this team really is as barebones as it gets, having just enough players for each position to have a base 22 player team. They have by far the least amount of waste. I calculated the ratio between total overall TPE and weighted TPE (what counts in a game) and their ratio came out to be 1.45. For comparison, Portland’s ratio was 1.72, Norfolk was 1.73 and the Buccs had a ratio of 1.89. A larger ratio indicates more depth at the cost of weakening an individual positions performance on any given snap. KCC seems like a team that quick simply, has been built to win an Ultimini this year. They come into the playoffs with the #1 offense and the #1 defense (although in terms of actual raw performance Portland does just barely edge them out. KCC’s overall edge comes through a slight TPE advantage). They are without a doubt my pick to win this years Ultimini. This doesn’t mean it will be easy however. Portland was my #2 coming into the season. Next weeks conference championship will be an all-out war with Portland’s ability to turn the ball over at any time presenting a constant threat to the Coyotes unstoppable offense.
2. Myrtle Beach comes in as a strong #2 and the likely pick in the SFC to challenge for the Ultimini. Coming in at #3 on my pre-season predictions, they come in this post season with the #2 Offense and #3 defense. As mentioned above, Myrtle Beach’s strength comes from their depth. At any point they can deploy a number of weapons both on offense and defense. They have an unbelievably deep wide receiver core and sport one of the best running backs in the league. They play the weakest of the 4 playoff teams next week for a chance to challenge for the Ultimini. This doesn’t mean next weeks game will easy. Norfolk has punched above their weight all season, coming in with the 3rd best overall stats in the league when averaging both offense and defense. Norfolk’s defense is especially well rounded with depth at LB. We are in for another treat here
3. Portland is our #3 team, and I can honestly say they have underperformed quite a bit this year. Prior to the pre-season I had them as my #2 team, and I said they could easily make an argument to be #1. I was met with a good amount of pushback to this idea, especially after last years performance. But Lo and behold here we are, with Portland with every chance to win next weeks matchup against the Coyotes. Even so, Portland has seriously underperformed on the offensive side of the ball. They come in ranked 5th, but when you subtract TPE and just look at performance, they are ranked 6th in terms of offensive yards and points. They put up a measly 248 points, compared to KCC’s 308. They put up 310 yards per game compared to KCC’s 347. Quite simply, they have not got it done. Portland needs to do their sim homework this weekend and figure out a way to break the KCC defense. If they can do that, I do believe they can have at least a 50/50 shot at this game. They’ll be on the road, but with their defense’s ability to create interceptions at any point, they can play their way into a win with some luck. This has the chance to be the game of the year and I for one am pumped to watch it
4. Norfolk comes in at #4. Norfolk has been a curious team to follow for sure. They’ve managed the most points out of any team in the league, despite putting up the 5th most yards per game. Norfolk is definitely a team that takes advantage of its opportunities and they’ll need to take advantage of anything the Buccs give them next week. They’ll be fairly limited in how they approach this game however, sporting the worst QB and WR core in the entire league. They’ll be forced to run this ball down MB’s throat, which is a pretty tough ask given the Buccs sport the 2nd best Dline in the DSFL and the 4th best LB core. Contrasting this to the Buccs offense, which has a fairly balanced style of attack, I do wonder how the Norfolk’s front 7 will hold up. Norfolk’s strength has come from its DB’s this year, with the 2nd best DB core in the league. Up front is a different story, where they have the 6th best and 7th best Dline and LB core respectively. This is going to be a very tough game for Norfolk. MB has all the advantages coming in, along with HFA.
5. Our first of the nonplayoff teams is Tijuana. I won’t say too much here. 4 straight losses from weeks 9-12, including losses to both expansion teams, really put the post season out of reach for the Luchadores.
6. Minnesota sort of redeemed themselves towards the end of the season. Put in reality it was too little too late. I did do some sim testing to see if they were actually just getting sim screwed. In 1000 games against the Buccs (500 at home and 500 on the road) they had a point differential of -3. The Buccs put up 60+ more yards on the Ducks per game (they did this on the road as well as at home). Now, of course I’m not using team strategies but these results speak for themselves, and I didn’t try this experiment without the Ducks 85 TPE QB. With some adjustments the Ducks probably could have done better but as it stands, they are out of this year’s post season after winning the Ultimini last year. Talk about Ultimini hangover?
7. London comes in at #7, and the answer to the question “whose better between the two expansion teams.” Despite coming into the season with a TPE disadvantage, they put up far better numbers offensively compared to the anemic Birddog offense, which mustered only 272 yards per game compared to the Royals 328. The Birddogs were slightly better on defense, the difference there was not enough to overcome the offensive deficit. Even so, I do think because of league rules, the Royals technically come in last place via the standings, and so the Royals do get the #1 pick in the DSFL draft. Somebody please correct me if I’m wrong however.
8. And finally, we have the Birddogs. 4 straight losses to end the season are never how you want to finish. Even so, the Birddogs can be incredibly proud of their week 5 win against the Buccs. With a strong foundation to build on, I suspect we will see both expansion teams contend for a playoff spot next year.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]Final Note[/div]
Thanks again to everyone for reading these. We managed to pump out one of every week. I’ll be testing some different ways of doing the math in the off season, but for the most part I’m happy with how these went. Ultimately, they’re based on TPE, and in the end the TPE was mostly right. There are some things I’d like to account for (like a WR4 probably getting less snaps as a WR1, yet they are weighed equally right now), but that’s a problem for another time. In the meantime, lets enjoy what will likely be a very exciting DSFL playoff.
1772 Words