One of the most controversial topics that faces both the NSFL and the DSFL today is the power of Home Field Advantage when it comes to the sim. Every week it seems like predictions favor those teams that are playing at home, Which why shouldn't they? You would expect when two very competitve teams are facing each other that the team that is playing at home would have some sort advantage over their opponents. However, how much is too much? Is the sim unrealistically favoring the Home teams to the point where it is just unfair? And I am not just talking about the regular season but, also in the Championship game. That was the question I wanted to have answered. So I took some time and crunched some numbers and found out that when it comes to the National Football League the Home team will normally win between 55% and 60% of the time. This shows that there is a slight advantage in real-life at least that favors the Home team. Now when it comes to the Championship games, otherwise known as the Superbowl there is no home field advantage. So in order to account for that I took a look at how often the team with the better or equal record wound up winning the Superbowl because as we all known homefield when it comes to the NSFL and DSFL is determined by which team has the better record or tiebreaker. When I looked at the results it showed that in the Superbowl the team with the better or equal record won 36 out of 54 times. This comes out to 66.7% of the time the team that is better on paper actually wins. Now a lot of these stats are probably not to surprising to you and you are probably thinking to yourself that their is no way that the NSFL and the DSFL are anywhere close to those numbers because the sim is just that broken. Well lets find out shall we:
Let us start with the DSFL. I went through and compiled every seasons away record:
Season 3: 19-23
Season 4: 17-24-1
Season 5: 17-24-1
Season 6: 16-25
Season 7: 19-23
Season 8: 18-24
Seaon 9: 17-25
Season 10: 15-27
Season 11: 22-20
Season 12: 17-25
Season 13: 17-25
Season 14: 18-24
Season 15: 15-27
Season 16: 22-20
Season 17: 18-24
Season 18: 23-19
Season19: 13-29
Season 20: 19-23
Season 21: 21-35
Season 22: 20-36
Season 23 (Current): 9-27
Once I had that I used simple math to total it all up and found out that the overall record for Away teams in the DSFL to be 372-529-2 which comes out to a winning percentage of about 41.3%. Using subtraction and a knowledge of fractions you can easily find out that the Home team wins 58.7% of the time. This means that the sim seems to be spot on with real life given that NFL Home teams win 55% to 60% of the time. However, upon further digging I noticed an outlier. You see in Season 21 there was an expansion. If you notice the records listed above it seems that the winning percentage of away teams just dropped. So I crunched more numbers and found out that the Away teams record Pre-Expansion was 322-431-2 which meant that the Home team was winning 57.2% of the time. This number still falls perfectly into the 55% to 60% range that real-life stats tells us. But, when you look at Post-Expansion Away team records it boasts an abysmal 50-98 which comes out to the Home Team winning 66.2% of the time! That is almost a 10% increasing in winning percentage from pre-expansion to post-expansion. Finally, let us take a look at our Ultimini Champions. Out of the 20 Ultimini Championships that we have had the team with the better record has won 13 times and has only lost 7 times. To put that in percentage terms the team with the better record and home field advantage has won 65% of the time. If we take a look at the real-life comparison we see that the team with the better record wins 66.7% of the time when it comes to the Superbowl. So with all that being said, the stats show that overall the home field advantage in the sim is not broken for the DSFL. Although, it is trending in a dangerous direction since the expansion in Season 21 and will need to be watched closely.
Okay, so we looked at the DSFL and everything appeared to be working as it is supposed to be. Since we use the same sime for the NSFL then that should follow the same rules and everything should be fine right? Well, just to be on the safe side I ran some more numbers and this is what I found when it comes to Away Records in the NSFL:
Season 1: 14-28
Season 2: 16-40
Season 3: 21-34-1
Season 4: 22-34
Season 5: 20-36
Season 6: 24-31-1
Season 7: 23-33
Season 8: 21-35
Season 9: 27-29
Season 10: 21-35
Season 11: 21-35
Season 12: 26-30
Season 13: 17-39
Season 14: 21-35
Season 15: 23-33
Season 16: 27-38
Season 17: 22-43
Season 18: 24-41
Season 19: 21-44
Season 20: 20-45
Season 21: 28 - 37
Season 22: 35-41-1
Season 23 (In Progress): 26-40
Using the same method I used for the DSFL and the same range of 55% to 60% I crunched the numbers and found that the Away team has an overall record of 520-836-3, which comes out to a winning percentage of just over 38%. This means that when it comes to the NSFL the Home team is winning 62% of the time. Now the intresting thing about this is that, yes it is outside of reference range that we established, but most important it is 5% higher than our winning percentage we found in the DSFL. However, using standard deviation and the knowledge that outliers exist. We can conclude that the 62% is justifiable and not in any way considered broken or unfair. One intresting difference between the DSFL and the NSFL numbers were that in the DSFL there were 3 instances in which the Away team actually had a better record that the Home team. As you can see from the records listed above, there is no season in which the Away team record was a winning record. Another notable difference comes from the fact that the expansions have not seemed to hurt the Away teams winning percentage as it has in the DSFL. Finally if we look at the Ultimus matchups we see that team with the better record and home field advantage has won 16 out of the 22 championships. This comes out to 72.7% of the time. To me this was intresting because when you look at the DSFL it was only 65% of the time and in real life it is only 66.7% of the time. So again, there is some argument that maybe the home field advantage is a little lopsided when it comes to the NSFL.
So in conclusion, my stance is that Home Field Advantage in the sim is not broken. I repeat it is not broken. The numbers do not lie, and most values fall within the specified and known real life values. Yes, there are some outliers like in the Ultimus for the NSFL and the post expansion stats for away teams in the DSFL. However, if you take a look at the overall big picture the numbers are correct. So I think we can finally put this matter to bed.
Let us start with the DSFL. I went through and compiled every seasons away record:
Season 3: 19-23
Season 4: 17-24-1
Season 5: 17-24-1
Season 6: 16-25
Season 7: 19-23
Season 8: 18-24
Seaon 9: 17-25
Season 10: 15-27
Season 11: 22-20
Season 12: 17-25
Season 13: 17-25
Season 14: 18-24
Season 15: 15-27
Season 16: 22-20
Season 17: 18-24
Season 18: 23-19
Season19: 13-29
Season 20: 19-23
Season 21: 21-35
Season 22: 20-36
Season 23 (Current): 9-27
Once I had that I used simple math to total it all up and found out that the overall record for Away teams in the DSFL to be 372-529-2 which comes out to a winning percentage of about 41.3%. Using subtraction and a knowledge of fractions you can easily find out that the Home team wins 58.7% of the time. This means that the sim seems to be spot on with real life given that NFL Home teams win 55% to 60% of the time. However, upon further digging I noticed an outlier. You see in Season 21 there was an expansion. If you notice the records listed above it seems that the winning percentage of away teams just dropped. So I crunched more numbers and found out that the Away teams record Pre-Expansion was 322-431-2 which meant that the Home team was winning 57.2% of the time. This number still falls perfectly into the 55% to 60% range that real-life stats tells us. But, when you look at Post-Expansion Away team records it boasts an abysmal 50-98 which comes out to the Home Team winning 66.2% of the time! That is almost a 10% increasing in winning percentage from pre-expansion to post-expansion. Finally, let us take a look at our Ultimini Champions. Out of the 20 Ultimini Championships that we have had the team with the better record has won 13 times and has only lost 7 times. To put that in percentage terms the team with the better record and home field advantage has won 65% of the time. If we take a look at the real-life comparison we see that the team with the better record wins 66.7% of the time when it comes to the Superbowl. So with all that being said, the stats show that overall the home field advantage in the sim is not broken for the DSFL. Although, it is trending in a dangerous direction since the expansion in Season 21 and will need to be watched closely.
Okay, so we looked at the DSFL and everything appeared to be working as it is supposed to be. Since we use the same sime for the NSFL then that should follow the same rules and everything should be fine right? Well, just to be on the safe side I ran some more numbers and this is what I found when it comes to Away Records in the NSFL:
Season 1: 14-28
Season 2: 16-40
Season 3: 21-34-1
Season 4: 22-34
Season 5: 20-36
Season 6: 24-31-1
Season 7: 23-33
Season 8: 21-35
Season 9: 27-29
Season 10: 21-35
Season 11: 21-35
Season 12: 26-30
Season 13: 17-39
Season 14: 21-35
Season 15: 23-33
Season 16: 27-38
Season 17: 22-43
Season 18: 24-41
Season 19: 21-44
Season 20: 20-45
Season 21: 28 - 37
Season 22: 35-41-1
Season 23 (In Progress): 26-40
Using the same method I used for the DSFL and the same range of 55% to 60% I crunched the numbers and found that the Away team has an overall record of 520-836-3, which comes out to a winning percentage of just over 38%. This means that when it comes to the NSFL the Home team is winning 62% of the time. Now the intresting thing about this is that, yes it is outside of reference range that we established, but most important it is 5% higher than our winning percentage we found in the DSFL. However, using standard deviation and the knowledge that outliers exist. We can conclude that the 62% is justifiable and not in any way considered broken or unfair. One intresting difference between the DSFL and the NSFL numbers were that in the DSFL there were 3 instances in which the Away team actually had a better record that the Home team. As you can see from the records listed above, there is no season in which the Away team record was a winning record. Another notable difference comes from the fact that the expansions have not seemed to hurt the Away teams winning percentage as it has in the DSFL. Finally if we look at the Ultimus matchups we see that team with the better record and home field advantage has won 16 out of the 22 championships. This comes out to 72.7% of the time. To me this was intresting because when you look at the DSFL it was only 65% of the time and in real life it is only 66.7% of the time. So again, there is some argument that maybe the home field advantage is a little lopsided when it comes to the NSFL.
So in conclusion, my stance is that Home Field Advantage in the sim is not broken. I repeat it is not broken. The numbers do not lie, and most values fall within the specified and known real life values. Yes, there are some outliers like in the Ultimus for the NSFL and the post expansion stats for away teams in the DSFL. However, if you take a look at the overall big picture the numbers are correct. So I think we can finally put this matter to bed.