After a flurry of activity on Friday when I posted my weeks 3+4 edition of this series, the ISFL Stock Market has been pretty quiet over the weekend, with just 2 auctions posted (only 1 got any bids, and only one user bid on that one) and 2 stock purchases made. However, because of the double header counting as 2 "weeks" for stock price adjustments, the market prices of a bunch of stocks have actually changed significantly. That, plus the large amount of new information we have regarding team quality given the actual game results, means I've made quite a few changes to my market advice for a lot of different teams.
Despite claims to the contrary, I'd like to once again repeat that the Casino does not put me up to write these articles at all, that the only money I get from these is from the media grading team, and that I totally understand the viewpoints of anyone who doesn't really trust the Stock Market and wants to avoid interacting with it at all. I definitely think it can be improved, but I trust the people who are involved with it to fix its issues and make it something really cool and engaging, and in the meantime it's something we can try to make some free money off of!
BALTIMORE HAWKS
1-3
Current Price: $1,388,912
Price Change: -$133,267 (-8.8%)
Shares Owned: 45
Ownership Change: -46
On-Field Performances: L 13-34 @ COL, W 27-17 @ HON
We start with the easiest team to give stock advice for. The Hawks started the season with an egregiously high share price, and although it's been steadily sliding it's still the highest share price of any team in the league, which makes no sense given their subpar record. Sell all your shares of this team as they'll continue to slide going forward.
Advice: STRONG SELL (Unchanged)
COLORADO YETI
2-2
Current Price: $1,001,369
Price Change: +$101,990 (+11.3%)
Shares Owned: 250
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: W 34-13 vs. BAL, L 14-22 @ YKW
After two consecutive STRONG BUY calls from me last week, Yeti shares have finally hit the 250 share ownership cap at which point shares can only be acquired through open auctions until some are sold back to the Casino. I posted an auction of some of my own Yeti shares with an asking price of $7M yesterday, and Art placed the only bid on them for that asking price, working out to a $1.4M/share valuation. I think that's a pretty fair price, but also one that I was happy to get (hence starting the auction at that amount). The Yeti continue to look like a strong, but not elite, team and their highly owned stocks should continue to gain value, potentially even surpassing that $1.4M threshold by the end of the season. But since you can't get shares for <$1M anymore, I'm downgrading them a tier from the STRONG BUY category.
Advice: BUY (Previously: STRONG BUY)
(Full disclosure: I own 15 shares of Yeti stock)
YELLOWKNIFE WRAITHS
3-1
Current Price: $928,252
Price Change: +$32,480 (+3.6%)
Shares Owned: 68
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: L 17-22 @ AUS, W 22-14 vs. COL
Yellowknife looks like a pretty solid team this season and probably deserves consideration in that top tier of teams in the NSFC. A solid win over Colorado at home has it tied for 1st in the conference. You might think that with a solid record, good performances, and a stock that's increasing, I might change the Wraiths from a HOLD call to BUY. However, I'm making the slighly counterintuitive SELL call because of one reason: their brutal upcoming schedule this week. They play @ Berlin (who I still think is a really good team despite their brutal sim luck so far!), @ Chicago, and @ Sarasota. I think there's a strong chance that they lose 3 in a row and their stock slides at least 10%, at which point you might as well sell right now and buy back after the fall (because the Casino takes a 10% tax out of any sale you make directly to them).
Advice: SELL (Previously: HOLD)
CHICAGO BUTCHERS
3-1
Current Price: $1,147,778
Price Change: +$57,068 (+5.2%)
Shares Owned: 88
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: W 31-30 @ BER, L 24-27 @ SAR
The Butchers had a pair of really exciting away games and came scarily (for me) close to a 4-0 record and clear standing as the team to beat in the NSFC. Their stock jumped accordingly, which is interesting - I think this is the lowest-owned team I've seen make a jump this large so far this season. (Although all jumps this week were larger than normal because of the double header double-update, as I talked about last time.)
I think Chicago stock is in a pretty good place right now, but once again I just think there are better plays to make. They're clearly in the top tier of the NSFC, but so are other teams with either much cheaper stock (SAR) or much higher ownership (COL). Don't feel the need to get rid of this stock if you have some already, but look somewhere else if you want to invest in the market this week.
Advice: HOLD (Unchanged)
PHILADELPHIA LIBERTY
2-2
Current Price: $789,222
Price Change: -$63,575 (-7.5%)
Shares Owned: 25
Ownership Change: -44
On-Field Performances: L 7-37 vs. SAR, W 38-20 vs. BER
Philly is at .500! That's exciting. While I still think they're a strong contender for worst team in the league, they're playing with a ton of heart and have pulled off some big upsets so far this season. Even with a decent 1-1 showing in the double header, their stock dipped 7.5%, and looks to keep going down. I think you should get rid of this stock, but I won't fault you if you want to hang on this season so I'm upgrading it to just a SELL.
Advice: SELL (Previously: STRONG SELL)
ORANGE COUNTY OTTERS
4-0
Current Price: $1,172,580
Price Change: +$125,169 (+12.0%)
Shares Owned: 77
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: W 31-7 @ HON, W 35-17 vs. AUS
This team continues to track very similarly with OCO, with one key difference: there are not as many teams vying with OCO for the title of best team in the conference. While Otters stock is pricy, it comes with a much greater guarantee of a large number of wins and continued increases in value. If you're looking to make a less risky play for a steady return, OCO is the stock for you.
Advice: BUY (Unchanged)
NEW ORLEANS SECOND LINE
3-1
Current Price: $774,552
Price Change: +$72,140 (+10.3%)
Shares Owned: 255
Ownership Change: +5
On-Field Performances: W 30-27 @ ARI, W 27-6 @ NYS
Somewhat surprisingly to me, New Orleans has the second best record in the ASFC at the quarter mark of the season. The stock has actually passed the 250 share soft cap thanks to the processing of an open auction for 5 NOLA shares at a closing price of $1.24M/share. Like I said last week, I think that price is too high and I would want to try to sell my NOLA shares in an auction if I thought I could get that return on them. But the team is looking strong, and it's worth reconsidering whether it might just be better to wait and see if they can pass that price. If you're still pessimistic about the team, I think putting some shares up for auction could be a good play, but holding for a bit might be good too.
Advice: HOLD (Previously: SELL)
AUSTIN COPPERHEADS
2-2
Current Price: $742,444
Price Change: +$12,009 (+1.6%)
Shares Owned: 54
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: W 22-17 vs. YKW, L 17-35 @ OCO
I continue to struggle to find interesting and new things to say about Austin. They're an okay at best team, but their stock is very cheap which is nice. But there are other cheap stocks as well of significantly better teams (although that number is decreasing steadily each week). I had initially downgraded this to a HOLD call, but as I wrote that previous section I think I talked myself into leaving Austin as a BUY. Once again it's not my favorite play, but you could do worse.
Advice: BUY
SAN JOSE SABERCATS
2-2
Current Price: $844,759
Price Change: +$14,686 (+1.8%)
Shares Owned: 62
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: W 17-9 vs. NYS, L 16-38 vs. ARI
The Sabercats are basically the luxury brand Copperheads. More expensive, but I think the upgrade in team quality is worth the extra charge. They're in the middle of the pack again to start this year, but they've been able to emerge from the pack and score Ultimus victories in each of the last two seasons and I have full confidence they'll be a contender once again this year. (Don't check my season predictions, please!) This is a good price to get in low on the Sabercats and I think it could end much higher than this at the end of the season.
Advice: BUY (Unchanged)
ARIZONA OUTLAWS
1-3
Current Price: $813,720
Price Change: +$74,258 (+10.0%)
Shares Owned: 250
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: L 27-30 vs. NOLA, W 38-16 @ SJS
The Outlaws are struggling to start the season, although their week 4 performance was definitely a step in the right direction for a team that thought they were at least a playoff contender this season. Their stock continues to rise due to the 250 share ownership, so if you have some you should definitely be holding onto it, although it would be nice if someone put a few shares up for auction so we could see a market valuation of it. If some shares do come open, it would obviously be appealing to get in on the action, but I'd be wary of bidding too high a price for them in case this shaky start to the season does reflect some real issues with the team.
It's worth noting also that there was an open auction for 20 shares of Arizona stock with a starting bid of $20M that never got any bites. However, I'm not sure if we should read too much into that as a reflection of peoples' valuations of Outlaws stock, given it was posted on a Saturday, may not have been seen by many people, and may have been too large of a sum of money for many users to be willing to spend at once.
Advice: BUY (Previously: STRONG BUY)
HONOLULU HAHALUA
0-4
Current Price: $694,737
Price Change: +$30,186 (+4.5%)
Shares Owned: 68
Ownership Change: +25
On-Field Performances: L 7-31 vs. OCO, L 17-27 vs. BAL
Honolulu has been a yikes to start the season, although a few (biased) investors buying up big chunks of Honolulu stock has helped its share price rally despite their winless record this far into the season. I think we're likely somewhere near the minimum for this team's share price and it's unlikely to get too much worse, but I also don't know that I expect it to get better very soon.
Advice: HOLD (Unchanged)
SARASOTA SAILFISH
3-1
Current Price: $969,286
Price Change: +$26,638 (+2.8%)
Shares Owned: 113
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: W 37-7 @ PHI, W 27-24 vs. CHI
I'm clearly biased but the Sailfish are looking like one of the best teams in the league at the quarter mark. After their week 1 away loss at Colorado, they've won 3 straight including two blowout victories over Berlin and Philly, and a close win against a widely celebrated Chicago team. While Colorado has sold out, I think that Sarasota represents a buying opportunity of similar quality - a clearly good team with a cheap stock and strong ownership (slightly greater than the average stock right now). If not for the next team on this list, I think Sarasota would be the best buying opportunity this week.
Advice: BUY (Previously: HOLD)
(Full disclosure: I own 1 share of Sailfish stock, but that's mostly just so that I can yell #FireFrolf in shareholders' meetings)
BERLIN FIRE SALAMANDERS
0-4
Current Price: $739,121
Price Change: -$90,431 (-10.9%)
Shares Owned: 136
Ownership Change: +16
On-Field Performances: L 30-31 vs. CHI, L 20-38 @ PHI
Okay, NOW Berlin stock must be at its lowest point, right??? I swear that this team tests very well for games and that it's just gotten unlucky, and it makes me sad that a bunch of people are probably writing them off as a 3-13 team that's failed to improve much and has struggled "as expected" to start off the season. Definitely get in on this stock now because I strongly believe that this team will look much better by the end of the season, and 2 tough losses haven't changed that view since last week.
(Full disclosure: I'm buying 9 shares of Berlin stock as I post this article)
Advice: STRONG BUY (Unchanged)
NEW YORK SILVERBACKS
2-2
Current Price: $954,812
Price Change: -$158,098 (-14.2%)
Shares Owned: 67
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: L 9-17 @ SJS, L 6-27 vs. NOLA
After starting out 2-0 New York has fallen a bit back to earth with really awful losses where their offense failed to get anything going. If that wasn't bad enough, their upcoming schedule is brutal with 4 straight away games before they get to return to New York (or New Jersey? Do the Silverbacks play at the Meadowlands?) and play a home game. I really want to move them to at least a HOLD because I do think they can be a solid team this season, but there's just no reason to yet when they are likely to continue sliding a bit over the next few weeks.
Advice: SELL (Unchanged)
Summary
STRONG BUY
BUY
(-)
(-)
(+)
HOLD
(-)
(+)
SELL
(-)
(+)
STRONG SELL
Despite claims to the contrary, I'd like to once again repeat that the Casino does not put me up to write these articles at all, that the only money I get from these is from the media grading team, and that I totally understand the viewpoints of anyone who doesn't really trust the Stock Market and wants to avoid interacting with it at all. I definitely think it can be improved, but I trust the people who are involved with it to fix its issues and make it something really cool and engaging, and in the meantime it's something we can try to make some free money off of!
BALTIMORE HAWKS
1-3
Current Price: $1,388,912
Price Change: -$133,267 (-8.8%)
Shares Owned: 45
Ownership Change: -46
On-Field Performances: L 13-34 @ COL, W 27-17 @ HON
We start with the easiest team to give stock advice for. The Hawks started the season with an egregiously high share price, and although it's been steadily sliding it's still the highest share price of any team in the league, which makes no sense given their subpar record. Sell all your shares of this team as they'll continue to slide going forward.
Advice: STRONG SELL (Unchanged)
COLORADO YETI
2-2
Current Price: $1,001,369
Price Change: +$101,990 (+11.3%)
Shares Owned: 250
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: W 34-13 vs. BAL, L 14-22 @ YKW
After two consecutive STRONG BUY calls from me last week, Yeti shares have finally hit the 250 share ownership cap at which point shares can only be acquired through open auctions until some are sold back to the Casino. I posted an auction of some of my own Yeti shares with an asking price of $7M yesterday, and Art placed the only bid on them for that asking price, working out to a $1.4M/share valuation. I think that's a pretty fair price, but also one that I was happy to get (hence starting the auction at that amount). The Yeti continue to look like a strong, but not elite, team and their highly owned stocks should continue to gain value, potentially even surpassing that $1.4M threshold by the end of the season. But since you can't get shares for <$1M anymore, I'm downgrading them a tier from the STRONG BUY category.
Advice: BUY (Previously: STRONG BUY)
(Full disclosure: I own 15 shares of Yeti stock)
YELLOWKNIFE WRAITHS
3-1
Current Price: $928,252
Price Change: +$32,480 (+3.6%)
Shares Owned: 68
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: L 17-22 @ AUS, W 22-14 vs. COL
Yellowknife looks like a pretty solid team this season and probably deserves consideration in that top tier of teams in the NSFC. A solid win over Colorado at home has it tied for 1st in the conference. You might think that with a solid record, good performances, and a stock that's increasing, I might change the Wraiths from a HOLD call to BUY. However, I'm making the slighly counterintuitive SELL call because of one reason: their brutal upcoming schedule this week. They play @ Berlin (who I still think is a really good team despite their brutal sim luck so far!), @ Chicago, and @ Sarasota. I think there's a strong chance that they lose 3 in a row and their stock slides at least 10%, at which point you might as well sell right now and buy back after the fall (because the Casino takes a 10% tax out of any sale you make directly to them).
Advice: SELL (Previously: HOLD)
CHICAGO BUTCHERS
3-1
Current Price: $1,147,778
Price Change: +$57,068 (+5.2%)
Shares Owned: 88
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: W 31-30 @ BER, L 24-27 @ SAR
The Butchers had a pair of really exciting away games and came scarily (for me) close to a 4-0 record and clear standing as the team to beat in the NSFC. Their stock jumped accordingly, which is interesting - I think this is the lowest-owned team I've seen make a jump this large so far this season. (Although all jumps this week were larger than normal because of the double header double-update, as I talked about last time.)
I think Chicago stock is in a pretty good place right now, but once again I just think there are better plays to make. They're clearly in the top tier of the NSFC, but so are other teams with either much cheaper stock (SAR) or much higher ownership (COL). Don't feel the need to get rid of this stock if you have some already, but look somewhere else if you want to invest in the market this week.
Advice: HOLD (Unchanged)
PHILADELPHIA LIBERTY
2-2
Current Price: $789,222
Price Change: -$63,575 (-7.5%)
Shares Owned: 25
Ownership Change: -44
On-Field Performances: L 7-37 vs. SAR, W 38-20 vs. BER
Philly is at .500! That's exciting. While I still think they're a strong contender for worst team in the league, they're playing with a ton of heart and have pulled off some big upsets so far this season. Even with a decent 1-1 showing in the double header, their stock dipped 7.5%, and looks to keep going down. I think you should get rid of this stock, but I won't fault you if you want to hang on this season so I'm upgrading it to just a SELL.
Advice: SELL (Previously: STRONG SELL)
ORANGE COUNTY OTTERS
4-0
Current Price: $1,172,580
Price Change: +$125,169 (+12.0%)
Shares Owned: 77
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: W 31-7 @ HON, W 35-17 vs. AUS
This team continues to track very similarly with OCO, with one key difference: there are not as many teams vying with OCO for the title of best team in the conference. While Otters stock is pricy, it comes with a much greater guarantee of a large number of wins and continued increases in value. If you're looking to make a less risky play for a steady return, OCO is the stock for you.
Advice: BUY (Unchanged)
NEW ORLEANS SECOND LINE
3-1
Current Price: $774,552
Price Change: +$72,140 (+10.3%)
Shares Owned: 255
Ownership Change: +5
On-Field Performances: W 30-27 @ ARI, W 27-6 @ NYS
Somewhat surprisingly to me, New Orleans has the second best record in the ASFC at the quarter mark of the season. The stock has actually passed the 250 share soft cap thanks to the processing of an open auction for 5 NOLA shares at a closing price of $1.24M/share. Like I said last week, I think that price is too high and I would want to try to sell my NOLA shares in an auction if I thought I could get that return on them. But the team is looking strong, and it's worth reconsidering whether it might just be better to wait and see if they can pass that price. If you're still pessimistic about the team, I think putting some shares up for auction could be a good play, but holding for a bit might be good too.
Advice: HOLD (Previously: SELL)
AUSTIN COPPERHEADS
2-2
Current Price: $742,444
Price Change: +$12,009 (+1.6%)
Shares Owned: 54
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: W 22-17 vs. YKW, L 17-35 @ OCO
I continue to struggle to find interesting and new things to say about Austin. They're an okay at best team, but their stock is very cheap which is nice. But there are other cheap stocks as well of significantly better teams (although that number is decreasing steadily each week). I had initially downgraded this to a HOLD call, but as I wrote that previous section I think I talked myself into leaving Austin as a BUY. Once again it's not my favorite play, but you could do worse.
Advice: BUY
SAN JOSE SABERCATS
2-2
Current Price: $844,759
Price Change: +$14,686 (+1.8%)
Shares Owned: 62
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: W 17-9 vs. NYS, L 16-38 vs. ARI
The Sabercats are basically the luxury brand Copperheads. More expensive, but I think the upgrade in team quality is worth the extra charge. They're in the middle of the pack again to start this year, but they've been able to emerge from the pack and score Ultimus victories in each of the last two seasons and I have full confidence they'll be a contender once again this year. (Don't check my season predictions, please!) This is a good price to get in low on the Sabercats and I think it could end much higher than this at the end of the season.
Advice: BUY (Unchanged)
ARIZONA OUTLAWS
1-3
Current Price: $813,720
Price Change: +$74,258 (+10.0%)
Shares Owned: 250
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: L 27-30 vs. NOLA, W 38-16 @ SJS
The Outlaws are struggling to start the season, although their week 4 performance was definitely a step in the right direction for a team that thought they were at least a playoff contender this season. Their stock continues to rise due to the 250 share ownership, so if you have some you should definitely be holding onto it, although it would be nice if someone put a few shares up for auction so we could see a market valuation of it. If some shares do come open, it would obviously be appealing to get in on the action, but I'd be wary of bidding too high a price for them in case this shaky start to the season does reflect some real issues with the team.
It's worth noting also that there was an open auction for 20 shares of Arizona stock with a starting bid of $20M that never got any bites. However, I'm not sure if we should read too much into that as a reflection of peoples' valuations of Outlaws stock, given it was posted on a Saturday, may not have been seen by many people, and may have been too large of a sum of money for many users to be willing to spend at once.
Advice: BUY (Previously: STRONG BUY)
HONOLULU HAHALUA
0-4
Current Price: $694,737
Price Change: +$30,186 (+4.5%)
Shares Owned: 68
Ownership Change: +25
On-Field Performances: L 7-31 vs. OCO, L 17-27 vs. BAL
Honolulu has been a yikes to start the season, although a few (biased) investors buying up big chunks of Honolulu stock has helped its share price rally despite their winless record this far into the season. I think we're likely somewhere near the minimum for this team's share price and it's unlikely to get too much worse, but I also don't know that I expect it to get better very soon.
Advice: HOLD (Unchanged)
SARASOTA SAILFISH
3-1
Current Price: $969,286
Price Change: +$26,638 (+2.8%)
Shares Owned: 113
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: W 37-7 @ PHI, W 27-24 vs. CHI
I'm clearly biased but the Sailfish are looking like one of the best teams in the league at the quarter mark. After their week 1 away loss at Colorado, they've won 3 straight including two blowout victories over Berlin and Philly, and a close win against a widely celebrated Chicago team. While Colorado has sold out, I think that Sarasota represents a buying opportunity of similar quality - a clearly good team with a cheap stock and strong ownership (slightly greater than the average stock right now). If not for the next team on this list, I think Sarasota would be the best buying opportunity this week.
Advice: BUY (Previously: HOLD)
(Full disclosure: I own 1 share of Sailfish stock, but that's mostly just so that I can yell #FireFrolf in shareholders' meetings)
BERLIN FIRE SALAMANDERS
0-4
Current Price: $739,121
Price Change: -$90,431 (-10.9%)
Shares Owned: 136
Ownership Change: +16
On-Field Performances: L 30-31 vs. CHI, L 20-38 @ PHI
Okay, NOW Berlin stock must be at its lowest point, right??? I swear that this team tests very well for games and that it's just gotten unlucky, and it makes me sad that a bunch of people are probably writing them off as a 3-13 team that's failed to improve much and has struggled "as expected" to start off the season. Definitely get in on this stock now because I strongly believe that this team will look much better by the end of the season, and 2 tough losses haven't changed that view since last week.
(Full disclosure: I'm buying 9 shares of Berlin stock as I post this article)
Advice: STRONG BUY (Unchanged)
NEW YORK SILVERBACKS
2-2
Current Price: $954,812
Price Change: -$158,098 (-14.2%)
Shares Owned: 67
Ownership Change: 0
On-Field Performances: L 9-17 @ SJS, L 6-27 vs. NOLA
After starting out 2-0 New York has fallen a bit back to earth with really awful losses where their offense failed to get anything going. If that wasn't bad enough, their upcoming schedule is brutal with 4 straight away games before they get to return to New York (or New Jersey? Do the Silverbacks play at the Meadowlands?) and play a home game. I really want to move them to at least a HOLD because I do think they can be a solid team this season, but there's just no reason to yet when they are likely to continue sliding a bit over the next few weeks.
Advice: SELL (Unchanged)
Summary
STRONG BUY
BUY
(-)
(-)
(+)
HOLD
(-)
(+)
SELL
(-)
(+)
STRONG SELL