*An Advanced Statistical Look at Season 27 Cornerbacks

[mithrandir]

This is the second article in a series of articles taking a deep dive into some advanced statistics for player evaluation. This project is put together by a team of writers who will be publishing an All-Pro team this season and hope to provide the public with additional statistical information not available in the index. The first article on wide receivers can be found HERE. I will draw heavily on information from my stats compilation table found HERE.
This article will evaluate cornerbacks. 
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Shutdown Corners
One of the best features of the new sim is the addition of target and catch allowed stats for cornerbacks. Though there are some issues with this stat (the number of targets and catches allowed by defenders greatly exceeds the number of pass attempts and completions by quarterbacks, suggesting that a single pass might be credited to multiple defenders), this opens up several new opportunities for evaluating cornerbacks. Here are the raw target and catch allowed stats:
Osiris Firestorm-Fjord 178 TAR 114 CtA
Desmond Scarlett 171 TAR 119 CtA
Rich Triplet 168 TAR 103 CtA
Brandon Booker 165 TAR 125 CtA
Albert Ruschmann 163 TAR 108 CtA
Dukburg Quakstak 163 TAR 115 CtA
Andrew Witten 160 TAR 109 CtA
Lesean Crooks 157 TAR 106 CtA
Djibutee McJimmerson 157 TAR 109 CtA 
Matt Krause 155 TAR 110 CtA
Peter Patterson 154 TAR 100 CtA
Harrison Andrews 153 TAR 101 CtA
Colt Mendoza 151 TAR 107 CtA
Dan Foster 150 TAR 108 CtA
Jim Waters 150 TAR 95 CtA
Jeeeeroy Lenkins 142 TAR 91 CtA
Eldrick Avery 141 TAR 88 CtA
David Rector 139 TAR 93 CtA
Dermot Lavelle Jr. 138 TAR 92 CtA
Randy Vuxta 137 TAR 92 CtA
Tyron Shields 137 TAR 103 CtA
Ray-Ray Jackson 136 TAR 79 CtA
Doy Fieri 136 TAR 95 CtA
Tayshawn Crunk 134 TAR 97 CtA
Rashad Hilliard 131 TAR 86 CtA
Atlas Quin 130 TAR 80 CtA
Redbeard McFredbeard 130 TAR 80 CtA
Richard Leaking 121 TAR 89 CtA
Rickie Vaughne 119 TAR 83 CtA
Swantavius Jones 119 TAR 75 CtA
Asher Quinn 100 TAR 68 CtA
James Hoffman 99 TAR 66 CtA
Tyler Oles Jr. 86 TAR 42 CtA
Tomage McGullager 86 TAR 58 CtA
Cadillac Harris 77 TAR 46 CtA
Mason Gillion 74 TAR 40 CtA
Mervin Leonard 73 TAR 40 CtA
Ben Stackinpaper 67 TAR 40 CtA
Dorothy Zbornak 67 TAR 36 CtA
Ben Alexander-Arnold 9 TAR 5 CtA


CtA%
Of course, knowing target and catch allowed stats allows us to easily calculate the catch allowed percentage for each player. Here are the top ten shutdown corners by CtA%:
1. Tyler Oles Jr. 48.8%
2. Dorothy Zbornak 53.7%
3.  Mason Gillion 54.1%
4.  Mervin Leonard 54.8%
5.  Ben Alexander-Arnold 55.6%
6.  Ray-Ray Jackson 58.1%
7.  Ben Stackinpaper 59.7%
8.  Cadillac Harris 59.7%
9.  Rich Triplet 61.3%
t10.  Atlas Quin 61.5%
t10.  Redbeard McFredbeard 61.5%

Outside CB CtA%
These results are peculiar. Upon further inspection, we notice that seven of these eleven players, including the top 5, are all slot cornerbacks who lined up almost exclusively at nickelback and were targeted far less often than their outside CB counterparts. If we take out nickelbacks, we get this top ten list:
1.  Ray-Ray Jackson 58.1%
2.  Rich Triplet 61.3%
t3. Atlas Quin 61.5%
t3. Redbeard McFredbeard 61.5%

5.  Eldrick Avery 62.4%
6.  Jim Waters 63.3%
7.  Osiris Firestorm-Fjord 64.0%
8. :Firesalamanders: Jeeeeroy Lenkins 64.1%
9.  Peter Patterson 64.9%
10.  Rashad Hilliard 65.6%

Support Score
Unfortunately, we do not have statistics for yards allowed or touchdowns allowed by cornerbacks. Therefore, it is hard to tell if a cornerback is giving up a lot of big plays or not. Though it is an imperfect metric, I suggest the following as a rough estimate of how often a cornerback gives up big plays: support 
score.
This statistic is simple: it is calculated as (tackles - catches allowed). I believe that this statistic can show two things. First, is a player helping as a run defender. If a player gives up fifty catches but makes eighty tackles, those additional thirty tackles were either in run defense, or were chase down tackles of players guarded by teammates. Therefore, a positive number is a good thing. On the other hand, a player who has 80 catches allowed and only fifty tackles is probably getting beat in coverage a lot. If they did not get a tackle on a catch allowed, it was probably either a touchdown or a deep pass on which the safety made a tackle. For example, the two outside cornerbacks with the lowest TPE, Redbeard McFredbeard and Dermot Lavelle Jr. had support tackles scores of -45 and -49, respectively. This means that they gave up nearly fifty plays apiece that probably went for 20+ yards. This does not even count any additional deep plays given up that were offset in the metric by other tackles made in the run game by these players. 
Following this logic, we can assume that players with high support score numbers probably gave up relatively few deep passes and also played good run defense. Here are the top ten players in support score:

1.  Andrew Witten 11
2.  Matt Krause 3
t3.  Jim Waters 2
t3.  Jeeeeroy Lenkins 2
t5.  Ben Alexander-Arnold 1
t5.  Harrison Andrews 1
7.  Richard Leaking -1
t8.  Tyron Shields -2
t8.  Lesean Crooks -2
t10.  Mervin Leonard,  Cadillac Harris,  Doy Fieri,  Dan Foster -3

Playmaking Ability
Cornerback is not just about catches allowed, of course. They are most often evaluated by their playmaking abilities. Turnovers and pass deflections are an important part of playing cornerback. 

Interception%
Given our new target stats, we can see who intercepts the football at high rates. Are the interception leaders feasting on high volume or efficiency or both?

1.  Andrew Witten 4.4%
2.  Colt Mendoza 4.0%
3.  Randy Vuxta 3.6%
4.  David Rector 3.6%
5.  Osiris Firestorm-Fjord 3.4%
6.  Harrison Andrews 3.3%
7.  James Hoffman 3.0%
8.  Ben Stackinpaper 3.0%
9. :Firesalamanders: Jeeeeroy Lenkins 2.8%
10.  Peter Patterson 2.6%

Interception Return Yards
Of course, intercepting the ball and giving it back to your offense is always a great momentum swing for a team. What is even better? Returning the ball off the interception to shorten the field for your offense. Here are the top ten players in interception return yards:

1.  Andrew Witten 205
2.  Osiris Firestorm-Fjord 131
3.  Peter Patterson 126
4.  Brandon Booker 107
t5.  Randy Vuxta 83
t5.  Dermot Lavelle Jr. 83
7.  Jim Waters 81
8.  Ben Stackinpaper 77
9.  David Rector 76
10.  Harrison Andrews 75

PDINT%
After interceptions, pass deflections are the second-most significant statistic for cornerbacks. A high number of PDs shows that a cornerback was disrupted and caused an incompletion rather than a drop or a bad throw causing the incompletion. Because the sim counts interceptions as PDs, dividing the number of PDs by the number of targets for a cornerback is the percentage of throws that a player disrupted by intercepting or deflecting the ball. Here are the top ten disrupters:

1.  Albert Ruschmann 24.5%
2.  Desmond Scarlett 22.8%
3.  Colt Mendoza 21.2%
4.  Rich Triplet 19.6%
5.  Peter Patterson 18.8%
6.  Eldrick Avery 18.4%
7.  Osiris Firestorm-Fjord 18.0%
8.  Randy Vuxta 17.5%
9.  Dermot Lavelle Jr. 16.7%
10.  Lesean Paris Crooks 16.6%
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Top Five S27 Cornerbacks
5.  Desmond Scarlett: 69.6% CtA, 4 INT, 1 FF, 39 PDs.
Key stats: 2nd in disruption among all CBs (PDINT% of 22.8%)
Scarlett was one of the most disruptive players in the league, deflecting 35 passes and intercepting four. 

4. Harrison Andrews: 66% CtA, 5 INT, 21 PD, 2 TD.
Key stats: Zero penalties, zero missed tackles. Positive support score (1). Most TDs (2).
Andrews might be the most consistent player on this list. He rarely made any mistakes, with no penalties or missed tackles this season. Additionally, his support score of 1 indicates that he did not give up many big plays this season. Finally, his league leading two touchdowns should be recognized. 

3.  Rich Triplet: 61.3% CtA, 4 INT, 33 PD.
Key stats: 2nd lowest CtA% among outside cornerbacks, 4th in PDINT% (19.6%).
Triplet is the big winner from the new sim tracking targets and catches allowed. Using the traditional CB evaluation of only INTs, PDs, and TDs, Triplet had a good, but not great season. Thanks to the new information, though, we can see that Triplet was an excellent cornerback this season. He had the second lowest catch allowed percentage of any outside cornerback and the best of any CB1. He is one of only three players to appear on both the Outside CB CtA% top ten and the PDINT% top ten, showing that his low percentage of catches allowed is due to his disruptive abilities. 

2.  Osiris Firestorm-Fjord: 64% CtA, 1 FF, 1 FR, 6 INT, 32 PD, 1 TD.
Key stats: 2nd in INT return yards, top ten in both PDINT% and Outside CB CtA%, 2nd in INTs. 
In addition to his six interceptions and 131 return yards, Firestorm-Fjord sports a good CtA% and appears on every top ten list in this article except support score. Though he is very good at everything, he is hurt in these rankings because he is not first in any stat. 

1.  Andrew Witten: 68.1% CtA, 4 FF, 7 INT, 26 PD.
Key stats: 1st in support score (11), 1st in INTs (7), INT rate (4.4%), and INT return yards (205).
Though he has one of the higher CtA% on this list, Witten's league leading support score shows that he likely does not give up many big plays, and he also contributes to run defense. He also leads the league in all the interception categories, with an especially large lead in INT return yards. Throw in four forced fumbles and an 11th place PDINT% and Witten was clearly the best cornerback this season. His lack of touchdowns may hurt him, but given his high return yardage mark, he still managed to give his team great field position. Note: maybe it looks bad to put my own player first in these rankings, but I agreed with my fellow writers to do this article well before I was leading the league in INTs. Feel free to disagree and call me a homer in the comment section.

Honorable Mentions:
 Colt Mendoza: 70.9% CtA, 1 FF, 1 FR, 6 INT, 32 PD.
Mendoza is one of the people most hurt by the newly available target info. Despite being tied for second in the league in INTs, Mendoza's 70.9% catches allowed was too high for me to be comfortable including him on this list. He basically has identical stats to OF-F, but without a touchdown and with a CtA% 7 points higher. 

 Peter Patterson: 64.9% CtA, 2 FF, 1 FR, 4 INT, 29 PD.
He is so very close to making this list. Patterson is top ten in outside CB CtA%, PDINT%, and has the third most INT return yards despite only having four interceptions. Great numbers, but not quite good enough to make the cut.

 Jeeeeroy Lenkins: 64.1% CtA, 4 INT, 22 PD. 
Another solid season all-around, Lenkins had low CtA% to go along with good interception numbers. He also was one of the few players with a positive support score (2) and made the top 10 in INT%.

[Kotasa]

Dang really seems like of all the players this year, that Rich Triplet would have broken out the most.

[Pat]

Wow Doy was really worse than I even thought. :-(

[UberBJ]

Any accounting for missed tackles into the support category?

[SomeSay...]

[HalfEatenOnionBagel]

I disagree, you're a homer