In the last four seasons, my fantasy football record goes as follows:
1st place in my group
Literally forgot to join and cried
1st place in my group
2nd place in my group by 1.1 points (I apparently cry every other season because of fantasy football...@Rusfan can't wait for our rematch someday...)
So let's face it, I'm a bonafide miracle child and I clearly know exactly what I'm doing.
Yeah, no way. But I have been playing fantasy long enough now to notice some trends! One of those trends is that defense is WAY more important than people think. Am I suggesting that you pick Sarasota's defense first overall in your S29 draft? If you're in my group, yes, absolutely. Otherwise, no of course not! (People in my group, don't read into that. Just trust me. Defense, then kicker, then offensive line. There's way less of them than there are running backs! #science) But for the rest of you out there still listening to my advice for some reason, maybe consider picking up your defense before offensive line and kicker, or maybe even go crazy and wait to pick your quarterback or flex player if you have a really good feeling about a defense (that really good feeling is key. We'll come back to that in a bit).
Why in the world would I do that? You're a fan of the Bengals, you clearly don't know how to draft anybody worth anything! That's where you're wrong. We don't know how to use first round picks (recent exception - love you, Joey B) but we're killer at late round value picks, and that's what we're talking about here. If you have the top offensive lineman on your roster and I end up with number 6, I'm probably going to lose about 25-30 points to you over the course of the season. Same with kickers and honestly most options that will fall to you for your flex spot. (There are exceptions to this. If a stud falls to you for your flex, please don't refer to this article as the reason you picked up your defense instead. That's on you, bro.)
So, we've established: I'm a fantasy genius and I think that defenses are more important than we give them credit for. That should be enough for you, but I have a feeling I'm going to get requests for "data" or "facts" to support my claim. Bleck. Well, nerds, here you go:
Top 6 Defenses S24-S28*
*S28 refers only to weeks 1-9 at the time of the writing of this article
S24
1) Arizona - 121 points
2) Orange County - 116.2 points
3) Sarasota - 112.6 points
4) New Orleans - 107.5 points
5) Colorado - 99 points
6) Austin - 95.7 points
S25
1) Arizona - 219.9 points
2) Orange County - 175.3 points
3) Chicago - 172.2 points
4) New York - 163.1 points
5) Sarasota - 151.7 points
6) Colorado - 147.6 points
S26
1) New Orleans - 173.9 points
2) Chicago - 167.8 points
3) Yellowknife - 154.8 points
4) Colorado - 151.3 points
5) Arizona - 149.4 points
6) Sarasota - 144.2 points
S27
1) Chicago - 280.4 points
2) Colorado - 270.5 points
3) Honolulu - 232.3 points
4) Sarasota - 229.9 points
5) New York - 208.5 points
6) Yellowknife - 208.3 points
S28*
*S28 refers only to weeks 1-9 at the time of the writing of this article
1) Sarasota - 216.9 points (projected total 385.6 points)
2) New York - 169.3 points (projected total 301 points)
3) Austin - 141.2 points (projected total 251 points)
4) Yellowknife - 133.5 points (projected total 237.3 points)
5) Orange County - 121.5 points (projected total 216 points)
6) Arizona - 115.5 points (projected total 205.3 points)
First of all, let me offer a quick congrats to Sarasota for being the only team to make the top 6 for the last 5 seasons. The rest of us can attest that that is a hard thing to do! Now, to the analysis.
I listed the top six defenses each year in order to communicate one key point. In each fantasy group (unless you've been in a teeny group in which case all bets are off) there will be at MINIMUM the difference between the top defense and the 6th ranked defense within the ranks of your teams. If defense is a position that you tend to put off toward the end of the draft ("What difference will it really make, right?") you stand to lose the points that separate the top defense from the 6th ranked defense. Over the course of the last five seasons, this gap has widened significantly. In S24 it probably didn't really matter when you chose defense as the difference from 1st to 6th was only 25.3 points. In S25, that gap ballooned to 72.3 points. S26 made me wonder if this was just a fluke as the difference went back down to 29.7 points. However, S27 began trending upward again with a gap of 62.2 points emerging between 1st and 6th best defenses. Finally, this season the gap currently sits at a whopping 101.4 points between 1st and 6th, which if current trends continue would finish as a gap of 180.3 points. Calm down, Sarasota. We know you're good. Yeesh!
While I don't expect the current exponential growth to continue - unless of course Adam Schell starts getting weekly pick 6s for the Berlin Fire Salamanders in S29 (don't count it out!) - the trend is certainly one that fantasy players should pay attention to as they create their fantasy teams and drafting strategies for future seasons. More points are being scored by defenses, and the gap between the elite and the average is only growing. Thus, the elite fantasy defenses are becoming more valuable each and every year.
So, how do I know who the best defense will be? That's where the real problem lies. If we are supposed to spend a higher pick on a team defense due to its potential, how do I avoid missing on that pick and wasting a valuable resource as I build my team? I'll tell you what, if I knew I might not tell you anyways. I want to keep winning! But the truth is, I don't know. What I do know is that it has much more to do with who is on the roster than what the team has historically done. Regardless of who he plays for next season, I can confidently draft Jo Petrongolo @Jo3fish5 in the first couple rounds and know that I've got a stud. The team usage will affect his performance a bit, but not to a huge degree. However, if you picked Chicago as your defense because last year they almost led your team to victory (this is clearly purely hypothetical), this season might have had a disappointing beginning for me...I mean you, hypothetical person (saved it).
Team defense takes a bit of work. It requires more research than just pulling up frostbite's predictions (his last 2 number one defenses have gone 13th and 10th; this year's is projected 11th) and picking them in order, but if you land the defense that laps the field, you can afford a lot more error on the rest of your roster.
This has been a lot of fun for me to dig into today; if you have any advice for drafting the right defense, leave it in the comments below! After all, if a fantasy genius like me can share what makes him so great, I'm sure you can too!
1st place in my group
Literally forgot to join and cried
1st place in my group
2nd place in my group by 1.1 points (I apparently cry every other season because of fantasy football...@Rusfan can't wait for our rematch someday...)
So let's face it, I'm a bonafide miracle child and I clearly know exactly what I'm doing.
Yeah, no way. But I have been playing fantasy long enough now to notice some trends! One of those trends is that defense is WAY more important than people think. Am I suggesting that you pick Sarasota's defense first overall in your S29 draft? If you're in my group, yes, absolutely. Otherwise, no of course not! (People in my group, don't read into that. Just trust me. Defense, then kicker, then offensive line. There's way less of them than there are running backs! #science) But for the rest of you out there still listening to my advice for some reason, maybe consider picking up your defense before offensive line and kicker, or maybe even go crazy and wait to pick your quarterback or flex player if you have a really good feeling about a defense (that really good feeling is key. We'll come back to that in a bit).
Why in the world would I do that? You're a fan of the Bengals, you clearly don't know how to draft anybody worth anything! That's where you're wrong. We don't know how to use first round picks (recent exception - love you, Joey B) but we're killer at late round value picks, and that's what we're talking about here. If you have the top offensive lineman on your roster and I end up with number 6, I'm probably going to lose about 25-30 points to you over the course of the season. Same with kickers and honestly most options that will fall to you for your flex spot. (There are exceptions to this. If a stud falls to you for your flex, please don't refer to this article as the reason you picked up your defense instead. That's on you, bro.)
So, we've established: I'm a fantasy genius and I think that defenses are more important than we give them credit for. That should be enough for you, but I have a feeling I'm going to get requests for "data" or "facts" to support my claim. Bleck. Well, nerds, here you go:
Top 6 Defenses S24-S28*
*S28 refers only to weeks 1-9 at the time of the writing of this article
S24
1) Arizona - 121 points
2) Orange County - 116.2 points
3) Sarasota - 112.6 points
4) New Orleans - 107.5 points
5) Colorado - 99 points
6) Austin - 95.7 points
S25
1) Arizona - 219.9 points
2) Orange County - 175.3 points
3) Chicago - 172.2 points
4) New York - 163.1 points
5) Sarasota - 151.7 points
6) Colorado - 147.6 points
S26
1) New Orleans - 173.9 points
2) Chicago - 167.8 points
3) Yellowknife - 154.8 points
4) Colorado - 151.3 points
5) Arizona - 149.4 points
6) Sarasota - 144.2 points
S27
1) Chicago - 280.4 points
2) Colorado - 270.5 points
3) Honolulu - 232.3 points
4) Sarasota - 229.9 points
5) New York - 208.5 points
6) Yellowknife - 208.3 points
S28*
*S28 refers only to weeks 1-9 at the time of the writing of this article
1) Sarasota - 216.9 points (projected total 385.6 points)
2) New York - 169.3 points (projected total 301 points)
3) Austin - 141.2 points (projected total 251 points)
4) Yellowknife - 133.5 points (projected total 237.3 points)
5) Orange County - 121.5 points (projected total 216 points)
6) Arizona - 115.5 points (projected total 205.3 points)
First of all, let me offer a quick congrats to Sarasota for being the only team to make the top 6 for the last 5 seasons. The rest of us can attest that that is a hard thing to do! Now, to the analysis.
I listed the top six defenses each year in order to communicate one key point. In each fantasy group (unless you've been in a teeny group in which case all bets are off) there will be at MINIMUM the difference between the top defense and the 6th ranked defense within the ranks of your teams. If defense is a position that you tend to put off toward the end of the draft ("What difference will it really make, right?") you stand to lose the points that separate the top defense from the 6th ranked defense. Over the course of the last five seasons, this gap has widened significantly. In S24 it probably didn't really matter when you chose defense as the difference from 1st to 6th was only 25.3 points. In S25, that gap ballooned to 72.3 points. S26 made me wonder if this was just a fluke as the difference went back down to 29.7 points. However, S27 began trending upward again with a gap of 62.2 points emerging between 1st and 6th best defenses. Finally, this season the gap currently sits at a whopping 101.4 points between 1st and 6th, which if current trends continue would finish as a gap of 180.3 points. Calm down, Sarasota. We know you're good. Yeesh!
While I don't expect the current exponential growth to continue - unless of course Adam Schell starts getting weekly pick 6s for the Berlin Fire Salamanders in S29 (don't count it out!) - the trend is certainly one that fantasy players should pay attention to as they create their fantasy teams and drafting strategies for future seasons. More points are being scored by defenses, and the gap between the elite and the average is only growing. Thus, the elite fantasy defenses are becoming more valuable each and every year.
So, how do I know who the best defense will be? That's where the real problem lies. If we are supposed to spend a higher pick on a team defense due to its potential, how do I avoid missing on that pick and wasting a valuable resource as I build my team? I'll tell you what, if I knew I might not tell you anyways. I want to keep winning! But the truth is, I don't know. What I do know is that it has much more to do with who is on the roster than what the team has historically done. Regardless of who he plays for next season, I can confidently draft Jo Petrongolo @Jo3fish5 in the first couple rounds and know that I've got a stud. The team usage will affect his performance a bit, but not to a huge degree. However, if you picked Chicago as your defense because last year they almost led your team to victory (this is clearly purely hypothetical), this season might have had a disappointing beginning for me...I mean you, hypothetical person (saved it).
Team defense takes a bit of work. It requires more research than just pulling up frostbite's predictions (his last 2 number one defenses have gone 13th and 10th; this year's is projected 11th) and picking them in order, but if you land the defense that laps the field, you can afford a lot more error on the rest of your roster.
This has been a lot of fun for me to dig into today; if you have any advice for drafting the right defense, leave it in the comments below! After all, if a fantasy genius like me can share what makes him so great, I'm sure you can too!