09-12-2021, 11:40 PM
(This post was last modified: 09-24-2021, 03:10 PM by Tesla. Edited 3 times in total.)
As some of you know, in real life, I work as head of security for Great Canadian Casinos, and it was a nice cross-over working for the casino team here when it first got started just by being an adviser on prop bets and odds and the like. Over time, that position was no longer needed and I left the casino team last year. While this was just a sim job I still took it fairly seriously as I never bet on our lines that we set or gave insider advice because that is generally frowned upon in the real world.
Since I am no longer involved with the casino, I will release a comprehensive guide (or maybe not so comprehensive) to my top 6 bets for the week.
*disclaimer, this is just for fun, I can not guarantee the outcomes of wagers. Please know your limit and play within it.
Bet 1. Sarasota over/under 11.5
In the last 3 seasons, while coming close, Sarasota has never passed the 11 win mark. Hitting 11 wins exactly in S29 as well as last season. Even with the powerhouse Ichinose carrying the running game during these seasons Sarasota still was never able to quite squeeze out the all important 12th win. Playing powerhouse teams like Berlin and Colorado twice each season essentially give the Sailfish 3-4 losses right there, which means one of the other teams just need to upset the Sailfish once or twice during the whole year and the under will take this bet. Boss Jr is definitely and up and coming QB and the Sailfish defense is definitely Tier S a big part of this team is filled with S22 and S23 guys and are regressing. I think this will be the 4th year in the a row that the under will pay off here.
PickSix's Pick: Under
Bet 2. Colorado over/under 8.5
Colorado's last 3 win seasons have been 8 - 12 - 8. I think these numbers actually disguise how good of a team Colorado is. They have a tier S QB in Caliban and WR1 Delacour is hitting his prime now which should make for a high scoring duo threat in the air. Defense is stacked with multiple people still over 1000 TPE and should be able to hold opposing offenses to low scores which in turn will reduce the need to rely on Drip Dad as their primary back for clock control and yard management. While the scores should be low during the Yeti's games, playing against the bottom tier teams of the conference should easily get Colorado at least 6 wins coming at the expense of San Jose, Baltimore, and Philly. The other 3 will come from splits against Chicago, Sarasota, and at least one team from the other conference. I think last year was an outlier with their win total and they'll be closer to their S29 win total than not. Take the over here
PickSix's Pick: Over
Bet 3. Berlin over/under 9.5
Berlin last 3 win seasons have been 12 - 13 - 9. Again, I think last year was definitely an outlier for theis Berlin team. Dexter might be a shell of what he once was in those seasons, but he still has extremely dangerous weapons on either side of him which will give opposing CB's a hard time in the air with Cmon and Ty Hood flanking either side of him. With rumbles about Cmon potentially retiring, it still gives Dexter a weapon for this season anyway and along with their ground game supplied by Danny King Jr this is going to be one high powered offense that will look to shatter their 9 win season from last year. Look for easy wins to come against the usual, in Baltimore, Philly, Chicago, and the other 3 wins needed to come from projected wins against San Jose, Yukon and at least a split with one of the other top teams in either conference this year. I'm liking the over for this bet
PickSix's Pick: Over
Bet 4. Chicago over/under 4.5
Chicago's last 3 seasons were 6 - 6 - 6 for wins. Truly the sign of the beast with this franchise which suffered horrible sim luck in S28, and some could argue even in S29. This is a team that is up and coming, they have replaced aging QB O'Donnell finally, and they have young talent that is maturing and ready to take that next step. The casino may have made a mistake with this offering and you should definitely be taking advantage of this. Even if Chicago splits against Baltimore and Philly, that's already 2 wins, and the other 3 will come from upsets that Chicago is known for achieving. Most of Chicago's losses in the last 2 years have come in the 4th quarter when their aging vets weren't able to finish the game with the same energy. Look for the trend to end in this season and take the over all day.
PickSix's Pick: Over
Bet 5. San Jose over/under 4.5
San Jose running 3 season total is 5 - 6 - 4. They are pretty much right where the casino has them for this season. So why is this one of my Pick Six bets? Simple, San Jose is definitely a team that is going to explode this season. Will their defense score the majority of their TD's this season? probably not, but even so, they still have formidable weapons in their offense with Campbell and Crossley. Lackson is still an extremely effective back that will be counted on for the majority of the carries and wearing down opposing defenses. This team loves to sow chaos and buck any notion of sim luck and look for them to do that here. They play a severely regressing NOLA twice, in addition to a mediocre OCO team twice as well. They split those series and that's already 2 wins. The additional 3 will come from playing against the bottom tier teams in the other conference and potentially scoring an upset against one of the top tier teams which SJS has been known to do in the past. Take the over
PickSix's Pick: Over
Bet 6. Arizona Over/Under 12.5
Arizona is the top team to beat this season. Last year they finished with 14 wins and one of their losses was an upset against San Jose. This is easily a 15-1 or even a 16-0 team this year with many of their top tier talent still well over 1000 TPE on offense and defense. Can I see this team losing more than 4 games this season? Not really, even in the last 3 seasons, they win totals were either 11 or 12. That was during the time when the teams in their conference were also competing along side Arizona. Those teams have since regressed a little bit and Arizona is still looking very strong. This is definitely in the middle of their championship window and they will be the Tier S team of the league this season as well. Take the Over here with confidence
PickSix's Pick: Over
PickSix's Pick Summary
Sarasota - Under
Colorado - Over
Berlin - Over
Chicago - Over
San Jose - Over
Arizona - Over
PickSix's Record on the season 0-0
Since I am no longer involved with the casino, I will release a comprehensive guide (or maybe not so comprehensive) to my top 6 bets for the week.
*disclaimer, this is just for fun, I can not guarantee the outcomes of wagers. Please know your limit and play within it.
Bet 1. Sarasota over/under 11.5
In the last 3 seasons, while coming close, Sarasota has never passed the 11 win mark. Hitting 11 wins exactly in S29 as well as last season. Even with the powerhouse Ichinose carrying the running game during these seasons Sarasota still was never able to quite squeeze out the all important 12th win. Playing powerhouse teams like Berlin and Colorado twice each season essentially give the Sailfish 3-4 losses right there, which means one of the other teams just need to upset the Sailfish once or twice during the whole year and the under will take this bet. Boss Jr is definitely and up and coming QB and the Sailfish defense is definitely Tier S a big part of this team is filled with S22 and S23 guys and are regressing. I think this will be the 4th year in the a row that the under will pay off here.
PickSix's Pick: Under
Bet 2. Colorado over/under 8.5
Colorado's last 3 win seasons have been 8 - 12 - 8. I think these numbers actually disguise how good of a team Colorado is. They have a tier S QB in Caliban and WR1 Delacour is hitting his prime now which should make for a high scoring duo threat in the air. Defense is stacked with multiple people still over 1000 TPE and should be able to hold opposing offenses to low scores which in turn will reduce the need to rely on Drip Dad as their primary back for clock control and yard management. While the scores should be low during the Yeti's games, playing against the bottom tier teams of the conference should easily get Colorado at least 6 wins coming at the expense of San Jose, Baltimore, and Philly. The other 3 will come from splits against Chicago, Sarasota, and at least one team from the other conference. I think last year was an outlier with their win total and they'll be closer to their S29 win total than not. Take the over here
PickSix's Pick: Over
Bet 3. Berlin over/under 9.5
Berlin last 3 win seasons have been 12 - 13 - 9. Again, I think last year was definitely an outlier for theis Berlin team. Dexter might be a shell of what he once was in those seasons, but he still has extremely dangerous weapons on either side of him which will give opposing CB's a hard time in the air with Cmon and Ty Hood flanking either side of him. With rumbles about Cmon potentially retiring, it still gives Dexter a weapon for this season anyway and along with their ground game supplied by Danny King Jr this is going to be one high powered offense that will look to shatter their 9 win season from last year. Look for easy wins to come against the usual, in Baltimore, Philly, Chicago, and the other 3 wins needed to come from projected wins against San Jose, Yukon and at least a split with one of the other top teams in either conference this year. I'm liking the over for this bet
PickSix's Pick: Over
Bet 4. Chicago over/under 4.5
Chicago's last 3 seasons were 6 - 6 - 6 for wins. Truly the sign of the beast with this franchise which suffered horrible sim luck in S28, and some could argue even in S29. This is a team that is up and coming, they have replaced aging QB O'Donnell finally, and they have young talent that is maturing and ready to take that next step. The casino may have made a mistake with this offering and you should definitely be taking advantage of this. Even if Chicago splits against Baltimore and Philly, that's already 2 wins, and the other 3 will come from upsets that Chicago is known for achieving. Most of Chicago's losses in the last 2 years have come in the 4th quarter when their aging vets weren't able to finish the game with the same energy. Look for the trend to end in this season and take the over all day.
PickSix's Pick: Over
Bet 5. San Jose over/under 4.5
San Jose running 3 season total is 5 - 6 - 4. They are pretty much right where the casino has them for this season. So why is this one of my Pick Six bets? Simple, San Jose is definitely a team that is going to explode this season. Will their defense score the majority of their TD's this season? probably not, but even so, they still have formidable weapons in their offense with Campbell and Crossley. Lackson is still an extremely effective back that will be counted on for the majority of the carries and wearing down opposing defenses. This team loves to sow chaos and buck any notion of sim luck and look for them to do that here. They play a severely regressing NOLA twice, in addition to a mediocre OCO team twice as well. They split those series and that's already 2 wins. The additional 3 will come from playing against the bottom tier teams in the other conference and potentially scoring an upset against one of the top tier teams which SJS has been known to do in the past. Take the over
PickSix's Pick: Over
Bet 6. Arizona Over/Under 12.5
Arizona is the top team to beat this season. Last year they finished with 14 wins and one of their losses was an upset against San Jose. This is easily a 15-1 or even a 16-0 team this year with many of their top tier talent still well over 1000 TPE on offense and defense. Can I see this team losing more than 4 games this season? Not really, even in the last 3 seasons, they win totals were either 11 or 12. That was during the time when the teams in their conference were also competing along side Arizona. Those teams have since regressed a little bit and Arizona is still looking very strong. This is definitely in the middle of their championship window and they will be the Tier S team of the league this season as well. Take the Over here with confidence
PickSix's Pick: Over
PickSix's Pick Summary
Sarasota - Under
Colorado - Over
Berlin - Over
Chicago - Over
San Jose - Over
Arizona - Over
PickSix's Record on the season 0-0
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