02-16-2022, 02:33 PM
(This post was last modified: 02-21-2022, 07:49 PM by Crunk. Edited 2 times in total.)
Now with a title that includes the word shenanigans this article can go one of two ways, either there is some serious silliness about to unfold, or some grade A, high falootin’ bitching that is about to happen, and by golly if you guessed option 2 you are right on the money. That’s right, it’s time to complain about not getting fake simulation money in a random game of chance!
Background information for the Lost
So this year I decided to participate in the casino’s Super Bowl LVI Squares event, purchasing 10 squares over what wound up being the only two grids created (with technically an extra square on the second grid since it wasn’t filled out entirely prior to the big game’s kick off but more on that later on). For those of you who don’t know how a Super Bowl Squares game works I’ll give a little breakdown so we can all be on the same page. The game is essentially this, a ten by ten grid is created an numbered 1 to 10 on both the X and Y axis, creating a square for every possible outcome between 0 to 0 and 9 to 9, with those numbers representing the single digit placeholder of the score for each of the teams (i.e. if the score was 13-21 the square marked 3 to 1 would be the winner, as the 3 from the 13 score and the 1 from the 21 score are in the single digit position). Generally, and in the case of the casino event this year as well, a winning square is determined 4 times, once at the end of each quarter (i.e first winning square is the score at the end of the first quarter, the last winning square is the final score of the game/end score of the 4th quarter). There are then two different options for dispersal of the winnings, either the prize for the correct score at the end of each quarter is identical or the prize increases after each quarter, meaning the fourth and final prize awarded for the final score is the highest and the prize for the first quarter scores is the lowest, and the latter matches how the casino rules were laid out. As football is mainly scored in 3 or 7 point increments, there are certain squares that are inevitably more likely to be the end score after any given quarter, and those probabilities are shown in the table below (note that this is based on the actual data from the previous 55 super bowls, not a mathematical likelihood).
![[Image: Screenshot-2022-02-15-5-21-55-PM.png]](https://i.postimg.cc/rsSqL4c1/Screenshot-2022-02-15-5-21-55-PM.png)
Now as we can see here there is quite the deviation between the most repeated and least repeated scores at the end of quarters, with a whopping 13 having never occurred at all. Now the number of times a score ended a quarter is great, however it doesn’t tell quite the whole story, as the chart doesn’t separate the duality of the pairings (i.e. 7-3 and 3-7 count as the same digits, even though only of the two would actually count for a prize). For a little more context we can evaluate the relative value for each square using the chart below.
![[Image: square-worth.webp]](https://i.postimg.cc/6p6tDTPZ/square-worth.webp)
With this chart we can see the relative value each square has to its cost (in this example $1 per square), which unsurprisingly coordinates well to the historical data for the super bowl squares, with some slight deviations as the value chart is comprised of 1888 NFL games instead of just the 55 super bowls. Now that we’re armed with a solid background on the topic we can really get into the bitching session I have planned for us, so sit back, relax, and enjoy as I rant about the unfairness of my circumstances.
The Squares Revealed
Well they say it takes money to make money, and as previously mentioned I had agreed to purchase up to 10 squares on two grids with full knowledge that the squares would be randomly allocated, and at 25K per square that put me at a total deposit of 2.5M (that’s some calculator math right there). Now with the prize packages being as follows:
End of Quarter 1: $2M
End of Quarter 2: $4M
End of Quarter 3: $6M
End of Quarter 4: $10.5M
I would need to either hit on one grid for any quarter past the second, a first quarter hit plus any other quarter, or both first quarter grids to come out as a net positive on my gamble. Surely with 5 squares per grid I could manage at least one decent placement and get lucky for the big 4th quarter prize on one, right? Well let’s take a look at the grids and see where my lucky spaces ended up (for ease of finding my squares they have been highlighted in a light green, with the winning squares highlighted in blue (1st quarter), dark green (2nd/4th quarter), and purple (3rd quarter).
![[Image: Screenshot-2022-02-16-8-35-55-AM.png]](https://i.postimg.cc/jSySrGqV/Screenshot-2022-02-16-8-35-55-AM.png)
![[Image: Screenshot-2022-02-16-8-36-52-AM.png]](https://i.postimg.cc/YqZv761F/Screenshot-2022-02-16-8-36-52-AM.png)
From the two grids we can see my squares are 4-3, 5-7 (x2). 8-7, 2-8. 3-9 (x2 with 9-3), 3-7, 9-1, 0-9, and 9-9. From the first chart we can already tell I’m pretty fucked from the start, as 2 of my 11 sqaures have never hit in the 220 previous super bowl quarters and another 5 have only hit a single time, with my one saving grace being the 3-7 square that has hit 17 times in previous super bowls. Unfortunately for me I was on the wrong end of the 7-3 score, but hey, at least it was a good square, unlike any of the others that had a high of 8 previous hits for the 4-3 score. In fact the total hit rate for all 11 of my squares combined comes out to a measly 40 times, compared to the big winner (IceBear32) who had a total of 60 hits in his 11 squares, a 50 percent increase. But to see if that 50 percent hit rate increase is actually any more valuable we can compare the value charts of myself and IceBear32. My 11 squares have a total relative value of 7.69, or .70 per square, with my sole positive square being the 7-3 square with a relative value of 3.47 times its cost. On the other hand, Mr. Bear’s 11 squares totalled a total relative value of 12.51, or 1.13 per square, with 3 of his squares having a net positive relative value. Due to the value of his positive squares being so great, IceBear32’s value actually exceeded the predicted 50 percent increase and granted him a 62 percent increase in relative square value compared to my own. And keep in mind this is just myself compared to the lucky person who won the most cash, not necessarily the user who had the best statistical odds or value of their squares.
Now again these squares are random and it’s to be expected that some players are going to get a better shake than others, that’s just how games of chance work. I certainly wouldn’t go as far as to say there was nefarious intent in the selection of squares, or even insulation that in fact the squares were chosen and not random, it is just unlucky that of the 25 square that have a positive relative value I was only able to hit 0 out of 5 chances on grid one and 1 out of 6 chances on grid two and thus where my justification for my bitching comes from. It would be fun to create a conspiracy about squares but honestly there are bigger actual gripes I have than the dispersion of squares, especially as a cursory overview looks like there wasn’t any player in particular that had an excess of positive value squares. For that fun peek into the tin foil hat let’s talk about what was actually a little shady, or if not shady at least not fully explained or given a reason for, the uneven allotment of extra squares in grid 2.
The Curious Case of Extra Squares
So the introductory rules clearly stated that any unfinished grid would have the remaining squares divided up among the users at no cost and reduce the prize winnings to reflect the actual money in that grid. That’s all fine and dandy, except for the fact that the free squares weren’t evenly distributed as some users got 6 squares and others 7 squares, and there wasn’t any apparent determining factor which the extra extra square was sent to someone. The bonus squares weren’t doled out in order of first come first served, as I was one of the users who only got 6 squares but requested 5 squares on grid two before multiple users who wound up with 7 squares on the grid. There was the possibility that the extra squares were awarded to especially active casino members, that would track as infinitempg was one of the users to get 7 squares and is a notorious gambling degenerate, however after further inspection the theory didn’t hold up, as the casino Hall of Fame tab and user bets threads showed multiple users who only had 6 squares repeatedly in the gambling action and a few users who gained the inexplicable 7th square with little or no action in the threads. I’m not really willing to put in the effort to sleuth out how the bonus squares were decided but it feels pretty fucky that there wasn’t an even amount to everyone who purchased 5 squares, especially since there’s a distinct possibility that the extra squares all could’ve been the winning squares (3 to 6 square users and 1 to a 7 square user). I guess a better alternative to having differing amount of bonus squares would’ve been to even out all the bonus squares and either make the leftovers a percent back to all users who purchased the max allotment of squares on the grid or possibly have the square revert to the another square by either altering the time or reverting to a last score before the quarter ended. Again not really trying to solve the actual problem, just noting and then bitching about the inequality of squares distributed and how it didn’t benefit me, thus creating a need for me to create a media article lamenting at the loss of my money and dragging on during a double media event in order to recoup some of that lost fortune. I will say that if the casino did come out and provide an explanation on the reasoning behind the square distribution numbers that would go a long way in proving accountability, not that I think the casino is rigged or anything but on the up and up, but still it would be nice.
Well I think that’s about all the bitching I can muster on this particular topic, and although I possibly made it seem like I’m upset or ungrateful for the casino for not giving me a proper avenue to financial success in this event, I actually really do appreciate the initiative to bring in some real life football events to bet on. It would be super cool to do something similar with the Ultimus and Ultimini, but considering thet are run ahead of time I can understand why that would open up a whole big can of worms into the ethics and validity of the winner. Especially when the square selection isn’t done live and proven to be truly randomized in front of everyone’s eyes. I look forward to again pissing my money away at some sort of casino event soon, and until then hopefully I can come up with enough money that I don’t need to create an overly long article to recover from my financial losses. Also sorry if the formatting is super fucked, I've never done an article with screenshots and I promise I tried my best...
Background information for the Lost
So this year I decided to participate in the casino’s Super Bowl LVI Squares event, purchasing 10 squares over what wound up being the only two grids created (with technically an extra square on the second grid since it wasn’t filled out entirely prior to the big game’s kick off but more on that later on). For those of you who don’t know how a Super Bowl Squares game works I’ll give a little breakdown so we can all be on the same page. The game is essentially this, a ten by ten grid is created an numbered 1 to 10 on both the X and Y axis, creating a square for every possible outcome between 0 to 0 and 9 to 9, with those numbers representing the single digit placeholder of the score for each of the teams (i.e. if the score was 13-21 the square marked 3 to 1 would be the winner, as the 3 from the 13 score and the 1 from the 21 score are in the single digit position). Generally, and in the case of the casino event this year as well, a winning square is determined 4 times, once at the end of each quarter (i.e first winning square is the score at the end of the first quarter, the last winning square is the final score of the game/end score of the 4th quarter). There are then two different options for dispersal of the winnings, either the prize for the correct score at the end of each quarter is identical or the prize increases after each quarter, meaning the fourth and final prize awarded for the final score is the highest and the prize for the first quarter scores is the lowest, and the latter matches how the casino rules were laid out. As football is mainly scored in 3 or 7 point increments, there are certain squares that are inevitably more likely to be the end score after any given quarter, and those probabilities are shown in the table below (note that this is based on the actual data from the previous 55 super bowls, not a mathematical likelihood).
Now as we can see here there is quite the deviation between the most repeated and least repeated scores at the end of quarters, with a whopping 13 having never occurred at all. Now the number of times a score ended a quarter is great, however it doesn’t tell quite the whole story, as the chart doesn’t separate the duality of the pairings (i.e. 7-3 and 3-7 count as the same digits, even though only of the two would actually count for a prize). For a little more context we can evaluate the relative value for each square using the chart below.
With this chart we can see the relative value each square has to its cost (in this example $1 per square), which unsurprisingly coordinates well to the historical data for the super bowl squares, with some slight deviations as the value chart is comprised of 1888 NFL games instead of just the 55 super bowls. Now that we’re armed with a solid background on the topic we can really get into the bitching session I have planned for us, so sit back, relax, and enjoy as I rant about the unfairness of my circumstances.
The Squares Revealed
Well they say it takes money to make money, and as previously mentioned I had agreed to purchase up to 10 squares on two grids with full knowledge that the squares would be randomly allocated, and at 25K per square that put me at a total deposit of 2.5M (that’s some calculator math right there). Now with the prize packages being as follows:
End of Quarter 1: $2M
End of Quarter 2: $4M
End of Quarter 3: $6M
End of Quarter 4: $10.5M
I would need to either hit on one grid for any quarter past the second, a first quarter hit plus any other quarter, or both first quarter grids to come out as a net positive on my gamble. Surely with 5 squares per grid I could manage at least one decent placement and get lucky for the big 4th quarter prize on one, right? Well let’s take a look at the grids and see where my lucky spaces ended up (for ease of finding my squares they have been highlighted in a light green, with the winning squares highlighted in blue (1st quarter), dark green (2nd/4th quarter), and purple (3rd quarter).
From the two grids we can see my squares are 4-3, 5-7 (x2). 8-7, 2-8. 3-9 (x2 with 9-3), 3-7, 9-1, 0-9, and 9-9. From the first chart we can already tell I’m pretty fucked from the start, as 2 of my 11 sqaures have never hit in the 220 previous super bowl quarters and another 5 have only hit a single time, with my one saving grace being the 3-7 square that has hit 17 times in previous super bowls. Unfortunately for me I was on the wrong end of the 7-3 score, but hey, at least it was a good square, unlike any of the others that had a high of 8 previous hits for the 4-3 score. In fact the total hit rate for all 11 of my squares combined comes out to a measly 40 times, compared to the big winner (IceBear32) who had a total of 60 hits in his 11 squares, a 50 percent increase. But to see if that 50 percent hit rate increase is actually any more valuable we can compare the value charts of myself and IceBear32. My 11 squares have a total relative value of 7.69, or .70 per square, with my sole positive square being the 7-3 square with a relative value of 3.47 times its cost. On the other hand, Mr. Bear’s 11 squares totalled a total relative value of 12.51, or 1.13 per square, with 3 of his squares having a net positive relative value. Due to the value of his positive squares being so great, IceBear32’s value actually exceeded the predicted 50 percent increase and granted him a 62 percent increase in relative square value compared to my own. And keep in mind this is just myself compared to the lucky person who won the most cash, not necessarily the user who had the best statistical odds or value of their squares.
Now again these squares are random and it’s to be expected that some players are going to get a better shake than others, that’s just how games of chance work. I certainly wouldn’t go as far as to say there was nefarious intent in the selection of squares, or even insulation that in fact the squares were chosen and not random, it is just unlucky that of the 25 square that have a positive relative value I was only able to hit 0 out of 5 chances on grid one and 1 out of 6 chances on grid two and thus where my justification for my bitching comes from. It would be fun to create a conspiracy about squares but honestly there are bigger actual gripes I have than the dispersion of squares, especially as a cursory overview looks like there wasn’t any player in particular that had an excess of positive value squares. For that fun peek into the tin foil hat let’s talk about what was actually a little shady, or if not shady at least not fully explained or given a reason for, the uneven allotment of extra squares in grid 2.
The Curious Case of Extra Squares
So the introductory rules clearly stated that any unfinished grid would have the remaining squares divided up among the users at no cost and reduce the prize winnings to reflect the actual money in that grid. That’s all fine and dandy, except for the fact that the free squares weren’t evenly distributed as some users got 6 squares and others 7 squares, and there wasn’t any apparent determining factor which the extra extra square was sent to someone. The bonus squares weren’t doled out in order of first come first served, as I was one of the users who only got 6 squares but requested 5 squares on grid two before multiple users who wound up with 7 squares on the grid. There was the possibility that the extra squares were awarded to especially active casino members, that would track as infinitempg was one of the users to get 7 squares and is a notorious gambling degenerate, however after further inspection the theory didn’t hold up, as the casino Hall of Fame tab and user bets threads showed multiple users who only had 6 squares repeatedly in the gambling action and a few users who gained the inexplicable 7th square with little or no action in the threads. I’m not really willing to put in the effort to sleuth out how the bonus squares were decided but it feels pretty fucky that there wasn’t an even amount to everyone who purchased 5 squares, especially since there’s a distinct possibility that the extra squares all could’ve been the winning squares (3 to 6 square users and 1 to a 7 square user). I guess a better alternative to having differing amount of bonus squares would’ve been to even out all the bonus squares and either make the leftovers a percent back to all users who purchased the max allotment of squares on the grid or possibly have the square revert to the another square by either altering the time or reverting to a last score before the quarter ended. Again not really trying to solve the actual problem, just noting and then bitching about the inequality of squares distributed and how it didn’t benefit me, thus creating a need for me to create a media article lamenting at the loss of my money and dragging on during a double media event in order to recoup some of that lost fortune. I will say that if the casino did come out and provide an explanation on the reasoning behind the square distribution numbers that would go a long way in proving accountability, not that I think the casino is rigged or anything but on the up and up, but still it would be nice.
Well I think that’s about all the bitching I can muster on this particular topic, and although I possibly made it seem like I’m upset or ungrateful for the casino for not giving me a proper avenue to financial success in this event, I actually really do appreciate the initiative to bring in some real life football events to bet on. It would be super cool to do something similar with the Ultimus and Ultimini, but considering thet are run ahead of time I can understand why that would open up a whole big can of worms into the ethics and validity of the winner. Especially when the square selection isn’t done live and proven to be truly randomized in front of everyone’s eyes. I look forward to again pissing my money away at some sort of casino event soon, and until then hopefully I can come up with enough money that I don’t need to create an overly long article to recover from my financial losses. Also sorry if the formatting is super fucked, I've never done an article with screenshots and I promise I tried my best...
![[Image: 11-win-WR.png]](https://i.postimg.cc/Dz5ckstz/11-win-WR.png)
[img]![[Image: S36FTAP.png]](https://i.postimg.cc/NfWr35JH/S36FTAP.png)
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![[Image: 74556_s.gif]](https://signavatar.com/74556_s.gif)
![[Image: 74043_s.gif]](https://signavatar.com/74043_s.gif)
