03-22-2023, 12:58 PM
(This post was last modified: 04-01-2023, 07:56 PM by Caleb_H. Edited 1 time in total.)
Alright, this was supposed to be my good week since it looked like I was alternating good and bad weeks. Suffice to say, this one was average in terms of my guesses but not good for my bank account (disregard that if you're an ISFL GM or scout, thanks). I was this close pinches fingers to hitting my parlay and taking home some extra cash money. But I guess the sim gods just did not want me to win money this week. Good thing there's more ISFL games left! Let's get to it:
Carter Knight (SAR) – under 0.5 interceptions: Knight might have been due for a pick, but he didn’t toss one this game as the Sailfish cruised to a victory. They attempted 36 passes and 9 were deflected, so sim gonna sim I guess. Not gonna beat myself up much for this one.
Jay Cue Jr (NOLA) – under 15.5 rush attempts: This one hurt my heart. This was the first game of the night and Cue Jr had 13 carries part way through the 3rd quarter. It seemed like a slam dunk as Jay only needed 3 more carries in about 1.5 quarters. Unfortunately, NOLA had some bad turnovers and needed to pass the rest of the game to catch up. What can ya do?
Waluigi Gronkowski (HON) – under 0.5 drops: I had to go through the game log to confirm this one that none of the incompletes to Gronk were drops. With only 2 catches on 7 targets I was initially worried but the sim did not count any of those incompletions as drops, so we survived this one. I don’t like this type of bet, haha.
Cape Town – over 27.5 points: Saved by the bell as HJM scored a garbage time touchdown with 33 seconds left to hit the over. This one had me sweating, especially since I guess this is a yearly occurrence that Cape Town is more like Melt Town (amiright @toofpete?) once a season. Thankfully the bet didn’t rely on a win or loss, just the points. So I’ll take the success on this one!
Levy Tate (AUS) – over 0.5 FG missed: Won’t spend much time on this one. Tate continued with the inaccurate kicking by missing a 49 yarder in the 2nd quarter. No other field goals were attempted by Austin so luckily it was the only kick needed to hit the over.
Caleb Hayden (HON) – under 6.5 tackles: Hayden disappeared a bit in this loss by Honolulu. New York ran plenty of plays (37 pass attempts with 25 completions, along with 36 rushing attempts) so I was surprised to only see 4 tackles for Hayden. So I’m not sure exactly what happened here, but what can ya do?
So a 50/50 week where I was only a couple rushing attempts away from going 4 and 2 with big money. Nevertheless, the show must go on. Let's break down week 15 props:
Roque Santa-Cruz (BER) – o/u 239.5 pass yds: Santa-Cruz is averaging 275 yards passing per game, which ranks 5th in the league. Berlin also averages the 3rd most attempts per game, meaning the over should be fairly easily hit. However, Berlin is going up against New Orleans this week, which ranks 2nd in the league in least passing yards allowed at 241.4 per game. This is the first matchup for the season between these 2 teams, so without any previous head to head stats, we’ll try to guess the game script. Berlin wants to play spoiler for NOLA so they’ll try to air this one out as their run game just has not been effective since the trade for Armor Queen. I’ll take the over on this one.
Leandre Diarra (OCO) – o/u 5.5 pancakes: A fullback pancake prop! I was pleased to be correct on the previous Diarra prop, so we’ll try go strike gold again. Diarra is averaging 5.4 pancakes per game, so the line seems just right. Looking game by game, it seems Diarra is most often under 5 pancakes a game, with a few outlier 9 pancake games. With the usage that the fullback sees in this offense, there’s less opportunities for pancakes when they’re carrying the ball! So for those reasons, I’m taking the under on this one.
Danny Nedelko (AZ) – o/u 85.5 rush yds: Oh Nedelko, you broke my heart last time as I was dead wrong about your prop. Since then, Danny has had multiple 100+ yard games. New York has a solid rush defense, not allowing many individual runners to go above 85 yards rushing. That being said, Arizona should, and I mean should, run away with this one, giving Nedelko plenty of opportunities to hit the over. So I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt this game and I’m taking the over.
Eee. Phenssta (COL) – o/u 104.5 receiving yds: Phenssta getting all the prop love this back half of the year! From what I’ve seen, my impression doesn’t change that Phenssta needs a long reception (usually a touchdown) to rack up the yardage. Chicago has a few good defensive backs and doesn’t seem to let up many big plays. All it takes is one 70 yarder to do most of the damage, but I’m taking the under on this one as I don’t think the long bomb will work out.
Lucius Salem (SAR) – o/u 50.5 receiving yds: Salem is averaging 59.1 yards per game this season, along with 5 catches per game. So Lucius is used pretty often in the passing game for a team that is top 5 in attempts. However, the Sailfish go up against Cape Town this week. While the passing defense for the Crash isn’t as good as they would like, they seem to do a good job at limiting yardage for tight ends. I think Sarasota would rather tempt their fate by using the passing game as they fight for a playoff spot, as Cape Town is very stout against the rush. I think it will be close, but Salem will get the targets and catches needed to hit the over.
Kalam Mekhar (YKW) – o/u 1.5 PDs: I’m going to keep this one short and sweet. Mekhar leads the league in pass deflections. Baltimore leads the league in passing attempts. Baltimore still has an outside shot at the playoffs. There will be plenty of opportunities for Mekhar to get pass deflections. Based on that, I think Kalam will get the over.
Sconnie McSix (SJS) – o/u 1.5 punt returns: This is another one that’s based on opportunities, right. So let’s look at the punt stats for their opponent, Austin. Their kicker, Levy Tate, is tied for 2nd in most punt attempts. Tate is 5th in the league in shortest punt average and 4th with the least long punt. Since joining San Jose, McSix has been their punt returner. I think McSix will have plenty of opportunities to return a couple punts to hit the over.
I’m going to go a bit outside of the typical bets that I make and go with the Phenssta under and Mekhar/McSix overs for a 3-leg parlay. I am probably going to put a little extra on the Nedelko and Santa-Cruz bets but I’m not super confident in those so I don’t want to put all my eggs into one basket. Well I wish you all luck this week and playoff races are tighter than ever! Enjoy the games!
Carter Knight (SAR) – under 0.5 interceptions: Knight might have been due for a pick, but he didn’t toss one this game as the Sailfish cruised to a victory. They attempted 36 passes and 9 were deflected, so sim gonna sim I guess. Not gonna beat myself up much for this one.
Jay Cue Jr (NOLA) – under 15.5 rush attempts: This one hurt my heart. This was the first game of the night and Cue Jr had 13 carries part way through the 3rd quarter. It seemed like a slam dunk as Jay only needed 3 more carries in about 1.5 quarters. Unfortunately, NOLA had some bad turnovers and needed to pass the rest of the game to catch up. What can ya do?
Waluigi Gronkowski (HON) – under 0.5 drops: I had to go through the game log to confirm this one that none of the incompletes to Gronk were drops. With only 2 catches on 7 targets I was initially worried but the sim did not count any of those incompletions as drops, so we survived this one. I don’t like this type of bet, haha.
Cape Town – over 27.5 points: Saved by the bell as HJM scored a garbage time touchdown with 33 seconds left to hit the over. This one had me sweating, especially since I guess this is a yearly occurrence that Cape Town is more like Melt Town (amiright @toofpete?) once a season. Thankfully the bet didn’t rely on a win or loss, just the points. So I’ll take the success on this one!
Levy Tate (AUS) – over 0.5 FG missed: Won’t spend much time on this one. Tate continued with the inaccurate kicking by missing a 49 yarder in the 2nd quarter. No other field goals were attempted by Austin so luckily it was the only kick needed to hit the over.
Caleb Hayden (HON) – under 6.5 tackles: Hayden disappeared a bit in this loss by Honolulu. New York ran plenty of plays (37 pass attempts with 25 completions, along with 36 rushing attempts) so I was surprised to only see 4 tackles for Hayden. So I’m not sure exactly what happened here, but what can ya do?
So a 50/50 week where I was only a couple rushing attempts away from going 4 and 2 with big money. Nevertheless, the show must go on. Let's break down week 15 props:
Roque Santa-Cruz (BER) – o/u 239.5 pass yds: Santa-Cruz is averaging 275 yards passing per game, which ranks 5th in the league. Berlin also averages the 3rd most attempts per game, meaning the over should be fairly easily hit. However, Berlin is going up against New Orleans this week, which ranks 2nd in the league in least passing yards allowed at 241.4 per game. This is the first matchup for the season between these 2 teams, so without any previous head to head stats, we’ll try to guess the game script. Berlin wants to play spoiler for NOLA so they’ll try to air this one out as their run game just has not been effective since the trade for Armor Queen. I’ll take the over on this one.
Leandre Diarra (OCO) – o/u 5.5 pancakes: A fullback pancake prop! I was pleased to be correct on the previous Diarra prop, so we’ll try go strike gold again. Diarra is averaging 5.4 pancakes per game, so the line seems just right. Looking game by game, it seems Diarra is most often under 5 pancakes a game, with a few outlier 9 pancake games. With the usage that the fullback sees in this offense, there’s less opportunities for pancakes when they’re carrying the ball! So for those reasons, I’m taking the under on this one.
Danny Nedelko (AZ) – o/u 85.5 rush yds: Oh Nedelko, you broke my heart last time as I was dead wrong about your prop. Since then, Danny has had multiple 100+ yard games. New York has a solid rush defense, not allowing many individual runners to go above 85 yards rushing. That being said, Arizona should, and I mean should, run away with this one, giving Nedelko plenty of opportunities to hit the over. So I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt this game and I’m taking the over.
Eee. Phenssta (COL) – o/u 104.5 receiving yds: Phenssta getting all the prop love this back half of the year! From what I’ve seen, my impression doesn’t change that Phenssta needs a long reception (usually a touchdown) to rack up the yardage. Chicago has a few good defensive backs and doesn’t seem to let up many big plays. All it takes is one 70 yarder to do most of the damage, but I’m taking the under on this one as I don’t think the long bomb will work out.
Lucius Salem (SAR) – o/u 50.5 receiving yds: Salem is averaging 59.1 yards per game this season, along with 5 catches per game. So Lucius is used pretty often in the passing game for a team that is top 5 in attempts. However, the Sailfish go up against Cape Town this week. While the passing defense for the Crash isn’t as good as they would like, they seem to do a good job at limiting yardage for tight ends. I think Sarasota would rather tempt their fate by using the passing game as they fight for a playoff spot, as Cape Town is very stout against the rush. I think it will be close, but Salem will get the targets and catches needed to hit the over.
Kalam Mekhar (YKW) – o/u 1.5 PDs: I’m going to keep this one short and sweet. Mekhar leads the league in pass deflections. Baltimore leads the league in passing attempts. Baltimore still has an outside shot at the playoffs. There will be plenty of opportunities for Mekhar to get pass deflections. Based on that, I think Kalam will get the over.
Sconnie McSix (SJS) – o/u 1.5 punt returns: This is another one that’s based on opportunities, right. So let’s look at the punt stats for their opponent, Austin. Their kicker, Levy Tate, is tied for 2nd in most punt attempts. Tate is 5th in the league in shortest punt average and 4th with the least long punt. Since joining San Jose, McSix has been their punt returner. I think McSix will have plenty of opportunities to return a couple punts to hit the over.
I’m going to go a bit outside of the typical bets that I make and go with the Phenssta under and Mekhar/McSix overs for a 3-leg parlay. I am probably going to put a little extra on the Nedelko and Santa-Cruz bets but I’m not super confident in those so I don’t want to put all my eggs into one basket. Well I wish you all luck this week and playoff races are tighter than ever! Enjoy the games!
"...and has what is honestly the most bizarre attachment to ISFL fantasy football and user bets..." - aeonsjenni