03-28-2023, 06:35 AM
(This post was last modified: 04-01-2023, 08:08 PM by Caleb_H. Edited 1 time in total.)
DSFL Week 14 has just wrapped up, and the playoff standings are locked in for Season 40 of the DSFL. We saw a lot of ups and downs as the league proved to have a lot of parity this season, but in the end 4 teams showed they have what it takes to compete or Ultimini XL. Before we move onto the main article, I want to give shout out to my Tijuana Teammates. I tried to reverse jynx us all season, but the sim had other plans. Going forward I'm buying in and putting Tijuana #1 forever and always. Sorry Tijuana, I don't care if you think I've cursed us with my predictions, I'm buying in and drinking the Tijuana Koolaid. Tijuana is never losing another game, and will be 10 time Ultimini champions in DSFL S41.
Early S41 Power Rankings:
1. Tijuana Luchadores
2-8. Everyone else, doesn't matter Tijuana is winning it all next season.
Effective TPE Update:
For our last Effective TPE update of the season I'm going to compare against the totals from week 1 to see how much all of us rookies have improved! Ahead of that I have to give a big congratulations to Bondi Beach for shooting up the charts this season from 7th all the way to 3rd with a league leading 1571 TPE gained this season. That increase nearly doubles what we've seen from other teams and is frankly unbelievable. Across the entire DSFL we saw a total gain of 8079 TPE, nearly enough to field half of an ISFL team, albeit not a very good one so don't think about planning a mass hold out to create a super team anytime soon. Big props to the S41 class for earning so well I'm sure ISFL GMs are itching to get their hands this draft class. From the scouting series I worked on previously there are 93 eligible players for the S41 draft. Taking the total of 8079 and dividing it by 93, that's approximately 86.87 TPE earned per player on average! Of course all of this isn't without a big thanks to all the DSFL GMs and Rookie Mentors for helping guide a rambunctious class of misfits all season. I'm sure these numbers wouldn't be nearly as high without all of your help!
Playoffs?
London Royals @ Portland Pythons
Prior Matchups:
Pythons 23 @ Royals 10
Royals 10 @ Pythons 30
The Pythons defense has dominated both of the prior matchups between these teams tallying an impressive 10 sacks across both games while holding London to just 10 point in each contest. A front 7 Captained by John Stark VIII leads the league in sacks, and has only surrendered a league 2nd best 22.2 ppga, and league best 76.6 rushing ypg. Look for the Mean Green Machine that is the Portland Python's defense to do their best Shrek impression and keep London Runningback Lord Farquaads in his place. The one weakness for the Pythons is in the pass defense that's allowed a league 6th 281.9 passing ypg. London conversely has the leagues best passing attack from a pure yardage standpoint putting up 308.6 passing ypg. Given the dominance of Wide Receivers in the DSFL I'm a bit shocked London has been held to such low scores in both of the prior matchups, and I personally don't expect the Pythons to be quite as dominant in the Conference Championship rematch. If Portland wants to come out on top a third time they'll have to rely on Bruce White getting to the Quarterback before London Wide Receivers Mike Ehrmantraut(league 1st 1325 receiving yards) and Don Tollibeo(league 7th 1152 receiving yards) burn the secondary. Nevertheless I don't think betting against Bruce White and the Pythons 6-1 record at home this season is a smart move, so I'm taking Portland by 7.
Prediction:
Royals 23 : Pythons 30
Bondi Beach Buccaneers @ Norfolk Seawolves
Prior Matchups:
Buccaneers 20 @ Seawolves 24
Seawolves 21 @ Buccaneers 20
Well this won't be an easy prediction, aside from my horrendous track record in making correct DSFL predictions, the prior two matchups between these teams have been decided by just 5 points in total! The Buccaneers are the most improved team this season by ETPE standards, but Norfolk still edges them out in Average ETPE by a score of 153 to 147. In a reversal of Portland's 6-1 home record, Bondi Beach has had an impressive resume on the road this season with a league best 5-2 away record. I guess the sim isn't factoring in the Jet Lag you would expect for a team that has to fly half way across the world when they play on the road. However, The most interesting statistic for me in this showdown is the Buccaneers league best 30.9 points per game scored, and league best 22.0 points per game allowed. Despite ranking league 6th 363.7 yards per game on offense and league 4th 375.3 yards per game allowed, the Buccs are defying the odds when it comes to the score board. A quick look at turnover differential can explain the disparity here. Bondi Beach has 21 defensive interceptions, 8 more than the next best team Tijuana who has just 13. And on the offensive front Smokin Jay has only thrown 7 interceptions all season.
The story for Norfolk is a bit different for the Norfolk defense as they sit near the middle in the standings at 3rd with 24.7 points per game allowed while ranking 1st just surrendering 357.9 yards per game. In the prior two matchups the difference make has been the back end of the Seawolf defense that held Smokin Jay to passer ratings of 84.6 and 77.4 which are a knock below his season average of 96.2(league 3rd). I expect more of the same in the 3rd game between these two teams, but the real decider will be if Norfolk can keep Jay off the field by sustaining a ground game lead by 2nd season veteran Howard Coward and rookie phenom Sticky Hands that's put up on average 129.3 yards per game this season(league 2nd best). I want to go with my gut and take Norfolk with their home field advantage, but if anyone can win on the road it's Bondi Beach.
Prediction:
Buccaneers 27 : Seawolves 22
Early S41 Power Rankings:
1. Tijuana Luchadores
2-8. Everyone else, doesn't matter Tijuana is winning it all next season.
Effective TPE Update:
For our last Effective TPE update of the season I'm going to compare against the totals from week 1 to see how much all of us rookies have improved! Ahead of that I have to give a big congratulations to Bondi Beach for shooting up the charts this season from 7th all the way to 3rd with a league leading 1571 TPE gained this season. That increase nearly doubles what we've seen from other teams and is frankly unbelievable. Across the entire DSFL we saw a total gain of 8079 TPE, nearly enough to field half of an ISFL team, albeit not a very good one so don't think about planning a mass hold out to create a super team anytime soon. Big props to the S41 class for earning so well I'm sure ISFL GMs are itching to get their hands this draft class. From the scouting series I worked on previously there are 93 eligible players for the S41 draft. Taking the total of 8079 and dividing it by 93, that's approximately 86.87 TPE earned per player on average! Of course all of this isn't without a big thanks to all the DSFL GMs and Rookie Mentors for helping guide a rambunctious class of misfits all season. I'm sure these numbers wouldn't be nearly as high without all of your help!
Playoffs?
London Royals @ Portland Pythons
Prior Matchups:
Pythons 23 @ Royals 10
Royals 10 @ Pythons 30
The Pythons defense has dominated both of the prior matchups between these teams tallying an impressive 10 sacks across both games while holding London to just 10 point in each contest. A front 7 Captained by John Stark VIII leads the league in sacks, and has only surrendered a league 2nd best 22.2 ppga, and league best 76.6 rushing ypg. Look for the Mean Green Machine that is the Portland Python's defense to do their best Shrek impression and keep London Runningback Lord Farquaads in his place. The one weakness for the Pythons is in the pass defense that's allowed a league 6th 281.9 passing ypg. London conversely has the leagues best passing attack from a pure yardage standpoint putting up 308.6 passing ypg. Given the dominance of Wide Receivers in the DSFL I'm a bit shocked London has been held to such low scores in both of the prior matchups, and I personally don't expect the Pythons to be quite as dominant in the Conference Championship rematch. If Portland wants to come out on top a third time they'll have to rely on Bruce White getting to the Quarterback before London Wide Receivers Mike Ehrmantraut(league 1st 1325 receiving yards) and Don Tollibeo(league 7th 1152 receiving yards) burn the secondary. Nevertheless I don't think betting against Bruce White and the Pythons 6-1 record at home this season is a smart move, so I'm taking Portland by 7.
Prediction:
Royals 23 : Pythons 30
Bondi Beach Buccaneers @ Norfolk Seawolves
Prior Matchups:
Buccaneers 20 @ Seawolves 24
Seawolves 21 @ Buccaneers 20
Well this won't be an easy prediction, aside from my horrendous track record in making correct DSFL predictions, the prior two matchups between these teams have been decided by just 5 points in total! The Buccaneers are the most improved team this season by ETPE standards, but Norfolk still edges them out in Average ETPE by a score of 153 to 147. In a reversal of Portland's 6-1 home record, Bondi Beach has had an impressive resume on the road this season with a league best 5-2 away record. I guess the sim isn't factoring in the Jet Lag you would expect for a team that has to fly half way across the world when they play on the road. However, The most interesting statistic for me in this showdown is the Buccaneers league best 30.9 points per game scored, and league best 22.0 points per game allowed. Despite ranking league 6th 363.7 yards per game on offense and league 4th 375.3 yards per game allowed, the Buccs are defying the odds when it comes to the score board. A quick look at turnover differential can explain the disparity here. Bondi Beach has 21 defensive interceptions, 8 more than the next best team Tijuana who has just 13. And on the offensive front Smokin Jay has only thrown 7 interceptions all season.
The story for Norfolk is a bit different for the Norfolk defense as they sit near the middle in the standings at 3rd with 24.7 points per game allowed while ranking 1st just surrendering 357.9 yards per game. In the prior two matchups the difference make has been the back end of the Seawolf defense that held Smokin Jay to passer ratings of 84.6 and 77.4 which are a knock below his season average of 96.2(league 3rd). I expect more of the same in the 3rd game between these two teams, but the real decider will be if Norfolk can keep Jay off the field by sustaining a ground game lead by 2nd season veteran Howard Coward and rookie phenom Sticky Hands that's put up on average 129.3 yards per game this season(league 2nd best). I want to go with my gut and take Norfolk with their home field advantage, but if anyone can win on the road it's Bondi Beach.
Prediction:
Buccaneers 27 : Seawolves 22