04-28-2023, 06:55 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-04-2023, 09:15 AM by H0PPY75. Edited 3 times in total.)
Welcome back to your last-minute pick tips from me, Ult! I try and badly analyze this week’s prop bets and try and give you an answer based on Advanced Statistics (Looking at Averages) and Expert Opinions (My Gut Feeling). However, before we get into this week's props, let us look at last week’s prop bets, and how the betting community did.
Well compared to last week, we as a single person and as a whole betting community did so much better compared to last week. Both Total Bets and Bets of the Week had 50 percent accuracy or more on the pics. Willer Miller did as expected by the community this week to hit the under on the prop bet of 255.5 passing yards. Willer Miller only put up 170 yards in the air, making all the under-bettors sleep easy on this bet. Now credit where credit is due, both he and the Sarasota Sailfish made the Berlin Fire Salamanders give up the most points in a game they have this season, at 23. Also, SAR has a +4 turnover differential this week, which helped the under as SAR didn’t have to travel so much to score this week. In this week's upset pick, Howard Coward got simmed hard. If you watched the game through halftime, you would have thought this was gonna be an easy over, as Howard Coward had ~40 Rushing yards on the day. However, he got one rush attempt in the second half of the game, killing any hopes for over-bettors this week. Everyone took the over on this bet, and everyone got burned by it, so don’t feel too bad about losing money this week on this bet. Now there is a reason why last week I wasn’t too sure about this bet, given NOLA was a gutted team. I said this specifically “He can hit over 72.5 yards, but I’m just not feeling it”. Well my gut was wrong here, he racked up a 58-yard bomb and then cruised easily over the 72.5-yard mark with 3 more catches, totaling 84 yards on the day. NCADV RAINN decided to send all of us degenerate gamblers to the hospital this week by deciding to save his last 2 catches to the 0:52 and 0:17 mark in the 4th quarter. Next time, please don’t give me a heart attack. John Stark VIII had a good game against SJS, picking up an INT, but we are here to see 6.5 tackles, which we only saw the VII have 3 of. Tackles are a fickle thing, and to quote myself again “I don’t have much confidence In this pick”. Bengal Tigerheart got his 8 pancakes, so I guess the sim gods and RNGesus smiled upon him. And yes, I unironically flipped a coin to decide this pickJayme Jayne Jay-Jaymison never got his 3 shots to try and punt inside the 20 from a reasonable range, as AZ more or less had him punt deep in AZ territory. This feels like an insane prop to hit over on, so I felt easy knowing this would most likely be an under, and I was proven right.
With last weeks recap out of the way, let me introduce season stats for our gamblers!
CROney is still leading the pack here, and we have a new competitor in Chicken Lips, who went 50% last week, which was below the average for Week 6 bets, but not a bad way to start your gambling career. Now let's get on to this week's props
OCO/HON : Rush Yards 249.5 O/U - Under
On paper, this feels like a very easy pick here. Both teams combined only put up 238.7 yards of rushing, and both teams combined only allow 202.5 yards on the ground as well. I feel like this game is going to be more about Air Raid offenses and have a shootout-like atmosphere, lending it to the high amount of passing yards, but not enough rushing to cover the over here. I’ll take the under on this bet
Deshawn Penne (AUS) : Catches 4.5 O/U - Under
Deshawn Penne averages 3.5 catches a game, and looking through his game log, he seems to sometimes only convert half of his targets to catches, and he rarely gets targeted 10 times in a game. I don’t expect him to put up 5 catches here, but since its such a small margin we are looking at here (as in I could see him ending up with 4 catches or 5 catches), I'm not very confident in this pick
Mandrews McHollywood (NYS) : Receving Yards 74.5 O/U - Over
Mandrews McHollywood is a 100 OVR receiver, and he averages around 66.8 yards a game, but I have overwhelming confidence he will break 74.5 yards. NYS faces the lowly NOLA, who has one of the worst DB cores in the league bar none. Given CB1 should face WR1, I think Hollywood will tear up Johnny Delusional, though it's a close matchup. NOLA also gives up 272 Passing Yards post trade, and given NYS only has 3 WR’s and 2 Low TPE TE’s, I think Mandrews McHollywood should hit the over here.
Baltimore Hawks : Total Offense 386.5 O/U - Under
Our feathery friends in Baltimore aren’t doing the best in terms of record, only sitting at 2-4. They average a total of 399.2 yards a game, already making it seem like an easy over here, but let's look at their opponents this week, the Sarasota Sailfish. SAR gives up 373.8 yards a game, under our prop line, so we have to dig deeper. BAL mainly gets most of its yards through the air, which accounts for 323.8 yards, so let's look at the aerial matchups here. When you look through the TPE tracker, SAR CB’s out TPE BAL’s WR on every front, and SAR has good enough LB’s to coverup any safety vales in the lone RB and TE on the field. I’ll take the under here, feeling like the unmovable force of SAR defense will win out today.
Kumquat Archipelago (YKW): Scrimmage Yards 89.5 O/U - Under
I have no idea what the Bookies are thinking here. Kumquat Archipelago averages only 57 yards on the ground and 21.5 yards in the air, and seems to be the RB2 over in Yellowknife. Given he averages 11 yards under the target, and they face a stout defense in the Arizona Outlaws, this feels like an easy under, and hopefully, occam's razor proves correct here.
Rumble Ronson (CHI) : Tackles 6.5 O/U - Over
God, I do not like these tackle props, as they feel so…. what's the word, random? Rumble Ronson averages 7 tackles a game, and it's really on the line for this one. COL, Chicago’s opponent this week, does give up 7 or more tackles to at least 1-3 defending opponents, I’ll guess I’ll take the over on this one.
Cape Town Crash : Passes Defended 6.5 O/U - Over
A weird team line to look at, but I’ll give it my best shot. CTC is going up against the pass-happy Berlin Fire Salamanders, which should in theory increase the amount of passes that then increase how many passes that may get deflected. BER should also force many punts from the crash, thereby increasing the opportunities of passing for the Fire Salamanders. I’ll take the over.
Just beat the buzzer here, and here are my picks of the week. Good luck to all you gamblers out there!
Well compared to last week, we as a single person and as a whole betting community did so much better compared to last week. Both Total Bets and Bets of the Week had 50 percent accuracy or more on the pics. Willer Miller did as expected by the community this week to hit the under on the prop bet of 255.5 passing yards. Willer Miller only put up 170 yards in the air, making all the under-bettors sleep easy on this bet. Now credit where credit is due, both he and the Sarasota Sailfish made the Berlin Fire Salamanders give up the most points in a game they have this season, at 23. Also, SAR has a +4 turnover differential this week, which helped the under as SAR didn’t have to travel so much to score this week. In this week's upset pick, Howard Coward got simmed hard. If you watched the game through halftime, you would have thought this was gonna be an easy over, as Howard Coward had ~40 Rushing yards on the day. However, he got one rush attempt in the second half of the game, killing any hopes for over-bettors this week. Everyone took the over on this bet, and everyone got burned by it, so don’t feel too bad about losing money this week on this bet. Now there is a reason why last week I wasn’t too sure about this bet, given NOLA was a gutted team. I said this specifically “He can hit over 72.5 yards, but I’m just not feeling it”. Well my gut was wrong here, he racked up a 58-yard bomb and then cruised easily over the 72.5-yard mark with 3 more catches, totaling 84 yards on the day. NCADV RAINN decided to send all of us degenerate gamblers to the hospital this week by deciding to save his last 2 catches to the 0:52 and 0:17 mark in the 4th quarter. Next time, please don’t give me a heart attack. John Stark VIII had a good game against SJS, picking up an INT, but we are here to see 6.5 tackles, which we only saw the VII have 3 of. Tackles are a fickle thing, and to quote myself again “I don’t have much confidence In this pick”. Bengal Tigerheart got his 8 pancakes, so I guess the sim gods and RNGesus smiled upon him. And yes, I unironically flipped a coin to decide this pickJayme Jayne Jay-Jaymison never got his 3 shots to try and punt inside the 20 from a reasonable range, as AZ more or less had him punt deep in AZ territory. This feels like an insane prop to hit over on, so I felt easy knowing this would most likely be an under, and I was proven right.
With last weeks recap out of the way, let me introduce season stats for our gamblers!
CROney is still leading the pack here, and we have a new competitor in Chicken Lips, who went 50% last week, which was below the average for Week 6 bets, but not a bad way to start your gambling career. Now let's get on to this week's props
OCO/HON : Rush Yards 249.5 O/U - Under
On paper, this feels like a very easy pick here. Both teams combined only put up 238.7 yards of rushing, and both teams combined only allow 202.5 yards on the ground as well. I feel like this game is going to be more about Air Raid offenses and have a shootout-like atmosphere, lending it to the high amount of passing yards, but not enough rushing to cover the over here. I’ll take the under on this bet
Deshawn Penne (AUS) : Catches 4.5 O/U - Under
Deshawn Penne averages 3.5 catches a game, and looking through his game log, he seems to sometimes only convert half of his targets to catches, and he rarely gets targeted 10 times in a game. I don’t expect him to put up 5 catches here, but since its such a small margin we are looking at here (as in I could see him ending up with 4 catches or 5 catches), I'm not very confident in this pick
Mandrews McHollywood (NYS) : Receving Yards 74.5 O/U - Over
Mandrews McHollywood is a 100 OVR receiver, and he averages around 66.8 yards a game, but I have overwhelming confidence he will break 74.5 yards. NYS faces the lowly NOLA, who has one of the worst DB cores in the league bar none. Given CB1 should face WR1, I think Hollywood will tear up Johnny Delusional, though it's a close matchup. NOLA also gives up 272 Passing Yards post trade, and given NYS only has 3 WR’s and 2 Low TPE TE’s, I think Mandrews McHollywood should hit the over here.
Baltimore Hawks : Total Offense 386.5 O/U - Under
Our feathery friends in Baltimore aren’t doing the best in terms of record, only sitting at 2-4. They average a total of 399.2 yards a game, already making it seem like an easy over here, but let's look at their opponents this week, the Sarasota Sailfish. SAR gives up 373.8 yards a game, under our prop line, so we have to dig deeper. BAL mainly gets most of its yards through the air, which accounts for 323.8 yards, so let's look at the aerial matchups here. When you look through the TPE tracker, SAR CB’s out TPE BAL’s WR on every front, and SAR has good enough LB’s to coverup any safety vales in the lone RB and TE on the field. I’ll take the under here, feeling like the unmovable force of SAR defense will win out today.
Kumquat Archipelago (YKW): Scrimmage Yards 89.5 O/U - Under
I have no idea what the Bookies are thinking here. Kumquat Archipelago averages only 57 yards on the ground and 21.5 yards in the air, and seems to be the RB2 over in Yellowknife. Given he averages 11 yards under the target, and they face a stout defense in the Arizona Outlaws, this feels like an easy under, and hopefully, occam's razor proves correct here.
Rumble Ronson (CHI) : Tackles 6.5 O/U - Over
God, I do not like these tackle props, as they feel so…. what's the word, random? Rumble Ronson averages 7 tackles a game, and it's really on the line for this one. COL, Chicago’s opponent this week, does give up 7 or more tackles to at least 1-3 defending opponents, I’ll guess I’ll take the over on this one.
Cape Town Crash : Passes Defended 6.5 O/U - Over
A weird team line to look at, but I’ll give it my best shot. CTC is going up against the pass-happy Berlin Fire Salamanders, which should in theory increase the amount of passes that then increase how many passes that may get deflected. BER should also force many punts from the crash, thereby increasing the opportunities of passing for the Fire Salamanders. I’ll take the over.
Just beat the buzzer here, and here are my picks of the week. Good luck to all you gamblers out there!