*Ult's Betting Emporium - W9

[Ultimatedestroye]

Welcome back to your last-minute pick tips from me, Ult! I try and badly analyze this week’s prop bets and try and give you an answer based on Advanced Statistics (Looking at Averages) and Expert Opinions (My Gut Feeling). However, before we get into this week's props, let us look at last week’s prop bets, and how the betting community did.


Do you see what I see?! ALL GREEN! 6/6! PERFECTION! I HAVE PEAKED AS A BETTOR AND JOURNALIST. *ahem*. So some people had overall a good week this week. I did go perfect on all bets, CR0ney had a perfect week on all of his Bets of the Week. CR0ney, Seb, and Lips all went 50% on total bets, and Lips had another painful week on Bets of the Week going ⅓. I had the correct mindset to look at CTC’s games and look through opponent competitions, as that was the clue that led me to pick the Over, quote “CTC constantly allows Teams to have their QB’s post more than 20 Completions a game,  6/7 times”. Everyone but Lips picked the Over, so hopefully Bettors followed the advice of the crowd here. Tyler One had an abysmal day out on the track, as he only put up 21 yards on the ground and averaged 2.6 yards a carry, not numbers you want to have when trying to hit an over. Our group of bettors was split, with Me and Lips taking the Under, while CR0ney and Seb picked the Over and lost. NCADV RAINN went bust on this line, as he only hit 51 yards. He did hit 2 TD’s however, so props to him. I was the only one to see through the mist, as both CR0ney and Lips picked the over here. Quadruple J also hit the under on another kicking prop, and this one was for the better. He only missed 1 Field Goal and hit all of his extra points. Everyone was had the consensus of under, so not much discord there. Pancake Props are all crapshoots, and I hit the jackpot here, with Khali racking up 9 Pancakes, enough to double the Over and have 2 Pancakes spare. Both Lips and CR0ney picked the under, but at the end of the day it’s all a coin flip. Liath Squirrel Picked up 8 tackles, and hit the over here. This was Lips one correct Bet of the Week, and CR0neys bet that put him .500 this week in total bets

On that note, lets now take a look at season recap on our Degenerates this year

My own averages shot up after a perfect 6/6, making me now better than a coinflip. CR0ney is having an insane 75% on Bets of the Week, so look to him for advice. Seb stays at .500, and Lips also stays just below .500. With that out of the way, lets look to this weeks props

Nova Montagne (HON) : Passing Yards 310.5 O/U - Under
Nova Montagne is averaging 290 Yards on the season, and the line is 20 yards over their average yards a game, so what gives? HON is going up against the butchers, and is looking to right the ship after taking their first hiccup this season. Chicago is normally a bad defense, but they only average 240 yards in the air given up. Don’t see the big line here, go with the under

Zane Cold (OCO) : Rushing Yards 55.5 O/U - Yards
Cold is having an ok season, putting up 64.4 Rushing Yards a game. He had an awful showing last game, along with last weeks prop. They are going up against a bit better defense this week in YKW. YKW gives up only 69 yards on the ground. I feel like OCO is going to go into the air to try and break through YKW, giving Zane Cold less chances to run, meaning less chances to rack up yards. I’ll go with the under here

Money Tolliver (BAL) : Receiving Yards 25.5 O/U - Over
Much to my surprise, Money Toliver is a RB with a outstanding receiving season, putting up 49 yards a game in the air. Baltimore should still be going with their own pass heavy offense again, and this should afford Toliver the opportunity to success. Even though SJS has a vaunted pass defense, I don’t think it will be enough to stop Toliver, I’ll go with the over.

Johnny Blaze Jr. (SAR) : Catches 6.5 O/U - Under
Blaze is averaging 6.6 Catches a game, making this a hard coinflip . Is it coinflip time? No we can quantify this. Blaze has only hit 7 receptions twice this season. Also, when you look at AZ they make teams spread out the ball a lot, and very few receivers can even scratch 7 or more receptions against them. I’ll take the under, but I’m not so confident


Mandrews McHollywood (NYS) : Touchdowns 0.5 O/U - Over
Soooo… we’re seeing if McHollywood will score a TD today. He has 6 TD in 8 Games, so he is just under a TD a game. NYS is going up against the vaunted Berlin defense today, which means scoring will be limited in this game. Normally Berlin may let in a bevy of FG in, but not much in the way of TD. They will let in around 2 TDS a game, so McHollywood needs to be one of them. McHollywood is one of the top 2 targets in the air, so maybe? I guess so? Over?

Solace Avenger (NOLA) : Tackles 8.5 O/U - Over
One of NOLA and the league's top LB is averaging 10 tackles a game, andI’m goin again, tackle props are really hard to guess. NOLA is a bad enough offense to allow alot of 3 and outs, which should but Avenger out on the field for an extended period of time, allowing enough room to knock in a few tackles. Over, and not confident at all

Delores Bickerman (AUS) : Kick Return Average 23.5 O/U - Over
Another coinflip line?! Cmon bookies make our lives a bit easier by putting up quantifiable lines. Delores Bickerman does average 27.4 yards per attempt, so over. IDK, never have done lines like this, so I dont know what to look for other than averages


Here are my bets of the week