*Red Zone Success (Or Lack Thereof) for Each ISFL Team after 4 Games

caleb.grim

With 14 one-score games already this season (half the games), a win or loss often comes down to one or two plays. In order for "luck" to go your way, it is important to find the success when scoring opportunities arise. This analysis will look at each team's Red Zone play and attempt to use this data to explain the team's record so far.

Arizona Outlaws (3-1):

Offensive Red Zone Stats (League Rank in Parenthesis)

16 Red Zone Trips (3rd)
12 Red Zone Touchdowns (2nd)
Red Zone TD Percentage: 75% (4th)
Expected Points Per Trip: 5.81 (5th)

Defensive Red Zone Stats

12 Red Zone Trips (Tied 7th)
7 Red Zone Touchdowns (Tied 5th)
Red Zone TD Percentage: 58.33% (Tied 4th)
Expected Points Per Trip: 4.33 (1st)

The defending champs have found success with one of the most efficient Red Zone defenses in the league. Their offense has been near the top of the league as well. They are getting to the Red Zone more often than their opponents and scoring more points when they get there. There is no surprise why they have won 3 of their first 4 games.

Austin Copperheads (2-2):

Offensive Red Zone Stats

10 Red Zone Trips (Tied 10th)
9 Red Zone Touchdowns (Tied 4th)
Red Zone TD Percentage: 90% (1st)
Expected Points Per Trip: 6.60 (1st)

Defensive Red Zone Stats

15 Red Zone Trips (Tied 11th)
10 Red Zone Touchdowns (Tied 10th)
Red Zone TD Percentage: 66.67% (Tied 9th)
Expected Points Per Trip: 5.27 (9th)

The Copperheads are relying on offensive efficiency alone to stay afloat. Ranking in the bottom half of the league in volume and defensive categories, I wonder how long they will be able to keep this up. Unless they can improve their defense or get to the Red Zone on offense more often, I would predict that the Copperheads begin to lose a few more games.

Baltimore Hawks (4-0):

Offensive Red Zone Stats

14 Red Zone Trips (5th)
9 Red Zone Touchdowns (Tied 4th)
Red Zone TD Percentage: 64.29% (8th)
Expected Points Per Trip: 5.36 (8th)

Defensive Red Zone Stats

10 Red Zone Trips (Tied 3rd)
5 Red Zone Touchdowns (Tied 1st)
Red Zone TD Percentage: 50% (1st)
Expected Points Per Trip: 4.70 (1st)

The Hawks have one of the best Red Zone defenses in the ISFL. Having allowed the least number of Red Zone TDs and having the best defensive efficiency has contributed to them winning all four of their games by a sizable margin. The are also earning respectable offensive volume stats as a the cherry on top.

Berlin Fire Salamanders (2-2):

Offensive Red Zone Stats

10 Red Zone Trips (Tied 10th)
6 Red Zone Touchdowns (Tied 9th)
Red Zone TD Percentage: 60% (11th)
Expected Points Per Trip: 5.40 (7th)

Defensive Red Zone Stats

10 Red Zone Trips (Tied 3rd)
6 Red Zone Touchdowns (4th)
Red Zone TD Percentage: 60% (7th)
Expected Points Per Trip: 5.10 (6th)

After making it the Ultimus, Berlin has disappointed out of the gate. In the Red Zone, the offense has been below average and the defense has been above average. One could say the two cancel each other out and you are left with nothing. Their play overall is not a strength or a weakness, it just is. Nothing seems more appropriate than being at .500 through 4 weeks.

Cape Town Crash (3-1):

Offensive Red Zone Statistics

15 Red Zone Trips (4th)
10 Red Zone Touchdowns (3rd)
Red Zone TD Percentage: 66.67% (Tied 6th)
Expected Points Per Trip: 5.47 (6th)

Defensive Red Zone Statistics

8 Red Zone Trips (1st)
5 Red Zone Touchdowns (Tied 1st)
Red Zone TD Percentage: 62.5% (8th)
Expected Points Per Trip: 5.13 (7th)

The Crash just don't allow their opponents near the Red Zone. With an above average offense in both volume and efficiency, the defense has done more than its share keeping teams from advancing past their 20 yard line. Continued play like this should comfortably get the Crash into the playoffs.

Chicago Butchers (1-3):

Offensive Red Zone Stats

8 Red Zone Trips (13th)
5 Red Zone Touchdowns (Tied 12th)
Red Zone TD Percentage: 62.5% (9th)
Expected Points Per Trip: 4.75 (10th)

Defensive Red Zone Stats

15 Red Zone Trips (Tied 11th)
11 Red Zone Touchdowns (14th)
Red Zone TD Percentage: 73.33% (11th)
Expected Points Per Trip: 5.93 (13th)

With a bottom 4 finish in both offensive and defensive volume stats, its no wonder that the Butchers have not really been relevant in any of their games. Add in below average efficiency and this is a recipe for disaster.

Colorado Yeti (2-2):

Offensive Red Zone Stats

17 Red Zone Trips (2nd)
13 Red Zone Touchdowns (1st)
Red Zone TD Percentage: 76.47% (3rd)
Expected Points Per Trip: 5.88 (4th)

Defensive Red Zone Stats

9 Red Zone Trips (2nd)
5 Red Zone Touchdowns (Tied 1st)
Red Zone TD Percentage: 55.56% (3rd)
Expected Points Per Trip: 4.89 (3rd)

If we just use the Red Zone statistics, the Yeti look like one of the best teams in the league. Being top 4 in every category is not an easy feat. Both of the Yeti's losses have come in one score games and I would imagine that they will have a better record come the end of the season if their stellar play in the Red Zone continues.

Honolulu Hahalua (1-3):

Offensive Red Zone Stats

11 Red Zone Trips (9th)
8 Red Zone Touchdowns (Tied 7th)
Red Zone TD Percentage: 72.73% (5th)
Expected Points Per Trip: 5.91 (3rd)

Defensive Red Zone Stats

13 Red Zone Trips (9th)
7 Red Zone Touchdowns (Tied 5th)
Red Zone TD Percentage: 53.85% (2nd)
Expected Points Per Trip: 5.15 (8th)

Honolulu has lost some tough games. One has to wonder if their play in the Red Zone has anything to do with it. They are in the bottom half of the league on both offense and defense in getting to the Red Zone. While their efficiency numbers are there, it doesn't mean a lot if it doesn't happen very often.

New Orleans Secondline (0-4):

Offensive Red Zone Stats

5 Red Zone Trips (14th)
4 Red Zone Touchdowns (14th)
Red Zone TD Percentage: 80% (2nd)
Expected Points Per Trip: 6.20 (2nd)

Defensive Red Zone Stats

17 Red Zone Trips (14th)
10 Red Zone Touchdowns (Tied 10th)
Red Zone TD Percentage: 58.82% (6th)
Expected Points Per Trip: 5.00 (4th)

The Secondline is the prime example of efficiency being meaningless when you don't have the volume. They are getting to the Red Zone very rarely and their opponents are getting there with ease. Winless seems about right.

New York Silverbacks (4-0):

Offensive Red Zone Stats

18 Red Zone Trips (1st)
9 Red Zone Touchdowns (Tied 4th)
Red Zone TD Percentage: 50% (Tied 12th)
Expected Points Per Trip: 4.67 (12th)

Defensive Red Zone Stats

10 Red Zone Trips (Tied 3rd)
8 Red Zone Touchdowns (8th)
Red Zone TD Percentage: 80% (13th)
Expected Points Per Trip: 5.60 (11th)

The hot start for the Silverbacks has been a case for quantity over quality. With low efficiency numbers, they will need to continue moving into the Red Zone at a high rate if they want to see continued success.

Orange County Otters (2-2):

Offensive Red Zone Stats

12 Red Zone Trips (Tied 7th)
6 Red Zone Touchdowns (Tied 9th)
Red Zone TD Percentage: 50% (Tied 12th)
Expected Points Per Trip: 4.25 (13th)

Defensive Red Zone Stats

11 Red Zone Trips (6th)
9 Red Zone Touchdowns (9th)
Red Zone TD Percentage: 81.82% (14th)
Expected Points Per Trip: 6.27 (14th)

The Otters start may be due to their opponents then their own play. Their two wins have come against the two winless teams after the first four weeks. Their red zone rankings point towards a finish in the bottom half of the league unless they can turn things around.

San Jose SaberCats (0-4):

Offensive Red Zone Stats

12 Red Zone Trips (Tied 7th)
5 Red Zone Touchdowns (Tied 12th)
Red Zone TD Percentage: 41.67% (14th)
Expected Points Per Trip: 3.67 (14th)

Defensive Red Zone Stats

12 Red Zone Trips (Tied 7th)
7 Red Zone Touchdowns (Tied 5th)
Red Zone TD Percentage: 58.33% (Tied 4th)
Expected Points Per Trip: 5.08 (5th)

The SaberCats owe their slow start to horrendous efficiency in the Red Zone on offense. They are wasting their opportunities to score unlike any other team in the league and this needs to change fast if they want to salvage their season.

Sarasota Sailfish (3-1):

Offensive Red Zone Stats

9 Red Zone Trips (12th)
6 Red Zone Touchdowns (Tied 9th)
Red Zone TD Percentage: 66.67% (Tied 6th)
Expected Points Per Trip: 5.33 (9th)

Defensive Red Zone Stats

15 Red Zone Trips (Tied 11th)
10 Red Zone Touchdowns (Tied 10th)
Red Zone TD Percentage: 66.67% (Tied 9th)
Expected Points Per Trip: 5.47 (10th)

Sometimes things don't make sense. The Sailfish have the Red Zone characteristics of a mediocre at best team. Yet they still have only lost one game and find themselves tied for second in a very strong NSFC. Will there luck run out over the next few games?

Yellowknife Wraiths (1-3):

Offensive Red Zone Stats

13 Red Zone Trips (6th)
8 Red Zone Touchdowns (Tied 7th)
Red Zone TD Percentage: 61.54% (10th)
Expected Points Per Trip: 5.23 (10th)

Defensive Red Zone Stats

13 Red Zone Trips (Tied 9th)
10 Red Zone Touchdowns (Tied 10th)
Red Zone TD Percentage: 76.92% (12th)
Expected Points Per Trip: 5.85 (12th)

A weak Red Zone defense may be a reason why the Wraiths haven't had the start that they hoped for. With poor offensive efficiency as well, Yellowknife may be on the outside looking in come playoff time.

Ranking the Quarterbacks in the Red Zone

Now for some fun. Here are my rankings of the 14 quarterbacks based on their red zone play. Let me know if you agree!

1. Donovan Winters III ARI