Brad Pennington just finished his first season in the NSFL as quarterback of the San Jose SaberCats. It was not a great season. He was last in the league with only 7 touchdowns, which was, oddly enough, the same number he threw his one season in the DSFL. Unfortunately, he also threw 31 interceptions, more than double his DSFL numbers. His passer rating of 51.1 was barely over half that of Mike Boss’ 99.2. For some extra numbers, I went through all of his game logs and recorded sacks and fumbles as well as rushing stats. Here were his final numbers:
304 completions on 561 attempts (54.2%) for 3058 yards, plus 0 yards and TDs on 18 attempts. He was sacked 65 times for 412 yards lost and lost 2 fumbles. Finally, he threw 7 TDs against 31 INTs. He was the worst in every way compared to the rest of the league. He finished with a TANY/A of 2.09.
Comparing him to experienced vets is one thing, though. Instead, let’s compare him to some other rookies and see how he holds up.
S7: Ryan Applehort
Applehort in S7 was also a true rookie (in the modern sense of the term), having started as QB immediately after being drafted. Being the closest QB in starting season, naturally this is the easiest comparison. Let’s look at his season.
231 completions on 482 attempts (47.9%) for 2430 yards, plus -38 yards and 2 TDs on 29 attempts. He was sacked 96 times for 642 yards lost and lost one fumble. Finally, he threw 4 TDs against 21 INTs. He finished with a TANY/A of 1.49.
The two were very comparable in yards per completion, but Applehort struggled a lot harder to get those passes completed. A lot of that was likely due to having worse receivers. Applehort had rookie Howard Miller as his #1 receiver, and Dwayne Aaron, only slightly better, as his #2. Pennington had possibly Hall of Fame bound Mayran Jackson and Shane Weston.
The biggest difference I saw was in sacks. Applehort was sacked 47.7% more than Pennington was with an even larger difference in yards lost. Looking at the builds via a glance, it seems Colorado had the same quality OL in S7 that San Jose had in S8, maybe even better, but Colorado focused more on run blocking, and also gave a Center 75 agility. It’s understandable that Applehort was sacked more often, but maybe not AS often as he was. This may sound odd, but Applehort was extremely lucky in regard to fumbles. Despite being sacked 96 times and rushing 29 times, that’s 125 times he was tackled, and only fumbled once. Pennington was only tackled 96 times, but fumbled twice. Also, note that even though Applehort averaged over a 1 yard loss per rush, he ran into the end zone twice, whereas Pennington was the better rusher but failed to get one.
All in all, I give the nod to Pennington. Yes he had a slightly better offense around him, but he also played a lot better with just a small advantage.
I won’t spend long on it, but let’s look at Borkus Maximus. Now, Maximus had a much better season, but he also played in the golden era for QBs, when OL bots were a thing, but before DBs learned how to make plays. Maximus had a mediocre 52% completion, but averaged 12.5 yards per completion, significantly higher than the other rookies. In addition, he was sacked 97 times, but made up for that with more touchdowns than interceptions. It’s worth noting that Maximus had arguably the best YAC man in the league with Evans.
Finally, for a QB from a completely different era, let’s look at Pierno. Pierno, unlike the rest, did not get to play a season in the DSFL before moving to the pros, placing him at a significant disadvantage. In addition, he did not have the benefit of an OL built from bots. He was an inexperienced QB for the first NSFL team to fire-sale. His stats are basically what you would expect. He completed only 48.7% of his passes, though got an impressive 12.2 yards per completion despite horrible WRs, though some of that was due to CB blitzes which were still a thing. Perhaps the most impressive aspect was that Pierno, despite the much worse OL, was sacked on only 13% of his drop backs compared to 17% for Applehort. Also very surprising is that, despite being the fastest QB in the league, he rushed only 39 times, despite being more efficient as a runner than as a passer. He finished with a TANY/A of 0.95, the lowest mark of any rookie. Personally, though, I think he might have actually been better than Applehort. To validate that, Pierno improved to 2.26 adjusted net yards per play his sophomore year. By using that year, both QBs had had the same time to earn TPE, with Pierno having worse offense, but Applehort playing worse defenses.
I will be going through and doing this for more QBs, and hope to start tracking all NSFL QBs starting in S9.
304 completions on 561 attempts (54.2%) for 3058 yards, plus 0 yards and TDs on 18 attempts. He was sacked 65 times for 412 yards lost and lost 2 fumbles. Finally, he threw 7 TDs against 31 INTs. He was the worst in every way compared to the rest of the league. He finished with a TANY/A of 2.09.
Comparing him to experienced vets is one thing, though. Instead, let’s compare him to some other rookies and see how he holds up.
S7: Ryan Applehort
Applehort in S7 was also a true rookie (in the modern sense of the term), having started as QB immediately after being drafted. Being the closest QB in starting season, naturally this is the easiest comparison. Let’s look at his season.
231 completions on 482 attempts (47.9%) for 2430 yards, plus -38 yards and 2 TDs on 29 attempts. He was sacked 96 times for 642 yards lost and lost one fumble. Finally, he threw 4 TDs against 21 INTs. He finished with a TANY/A of 1.49.
The two were very comparable in yards per completion, but Applehort struggled a lot harder to get those passes completed. A lot of that was likely due to having worse receivers. Applehort had rookie Howard Miller as his #1 receiver, and Dwayne Aaron, only slightly better, as his #2. Pennington had possibly Hall of Fame bound Mayran Jackson and Shane Weston.
The biggest difference I saw was in sacks. Applehort was sacked 47.7% more than Pennington was with an even larger difference in yards lost. Looking at the builds via a glance, it seems Colorado had the same quality OL in S7 that San Jose had in S8, maybe even better, but Colorado focused more on run blocking, and also gave a Center 75 agility. It’s understandable that Applehort was sacked more often, but maybe not AS often as he was. This may sound odd, but Applehort was extremely lucky in regard to fumbles. Despite being sacked 96 times and rushing 29 times, that’s 125 times he was tackled, and only fumbled once. Pennington was only tackled 96 times, but fumbled twice. Also, note that even though Applehort averaged over a 1 yard loss per rush, he ran into the end zone twice, whereas Pennington was the better rusher but failed to get one.
All in all, I give the nod to Pennington. Yes he had a slightly better offense around him, but he also played a lot better with just a small advantage.
I won’t spend long on it, but let’s look at Borkus Maximus. Now, Maximus had a much better season, but he also played in the golden era for QBs, when OL bots were a thing, but before DBs learned how to make plays. Maximus had a mediocre 52% completion, but averaged 12.5 yards per completion, significantly higher than the other rookies. In addition, he was sacked 97 times, but made up for that with more touchdowns than interceptions. It’s worth noting that Maximus had arguably the best YAC man in the league with Evans.
Finally, for a QB from a completely different era, let’s look at Pierno. Pierno, unlike the rest, did not get to play a season in the DSFL before moving to the pros, placing him at a significant disadvantage. In addition, he did not have the benefit of an OL built from bots. He was an inexperienced QB for the first NSFL team to fire-sale. His stats are basically what you would expect. He completed only 48.7% of his passes, though got an impressive 12.2 yards per completion despite horrible WRs, though some of that was due to CB blitzes which were still a thing. Perhaps the most impressive aspect was that Pierno, despite the much worse OL, was sacked on only 13% of his drop backs compared to 17% for Applehort. Also very surprising is that, despite being the fastest QB in the league, he rushed only 39 times, despite being more efficient as a runner than as a passer. He finished with a TANY/A of 0.95, the lowest mark of any rookie. Personally, though, I think he might have actually been better than Applehort. To validate that, Pierno improved to 2.26 adjusted net yards per play his sophomore year. By using that year, both QBs had had the same time to earn TPE, with Pierno having worse offense, but Applehort playing worse defenses.
I will be going through and doing this for more QBs, and hope to start tracking all NSFL QBs starting in S9.