Tons have happened since my early look at draft needs with expansions teams, retirements, trades, and so much more. I looked over those changes and tried to update team needs. Green needs are added/moved since last post while strikethought needs are moved/removed.
(I tried to exclude DSFL players, FAs, or those with 50 TPE from retirement listings)
NSFL Retirements since last post
Ahri Espeeyeeseetee - 1014 TPE, CB
Jake Utler - 216 TPE, RB
Marquees Acho - 900 TPE, CB
Max Lovote - 209 TPE, DE
Axel Hornbacher - 480 TPE, CB
Julian McMorris - 644 TPE, CB
NSFL S21-22 offseason retirements
(I didn't include these explicitly in the last post)
Tyler Swift - 363 TPE, S - note, moved from the original version of this post
Blake Faux - 734 TPE, DT
Siddhu Sarvepally - 246 TPE, RB
Raymond Vans - 576 TPE, LB
Johnny Slothface - 1021 TPE, LB
Leighton Lee - 556 TPE, LB
NSFL player movement due to trades since original post
Farley Hank ->
Jognson Harding ->
Ricardo Morris ->
Lamont McKinnie ->
Pending NSFL player movement due to expansion
Corvo Havran ->
Rayne Gordon ->
Team Breakdowns
The Outlaws traded away S McKinnie and DT Morris to Philly making it even more clear that they plan to focus on defense in this draft. The offensive core is still young outside of Irving at TE so I'd be surprised to see early picks used for it.
After trading away their top DT I think a replacement for DE Henry is even higher than before. CB Knight hasn't announced retirement, so I'm going to assume he'll stick around, but the Safety position is now a bit of a gaping void. I think CB falls a bit in priority because of the huge need in the other area along with hoping the DSFL CB Quin can make the step up next season as he's just broken 200 TPE..
High needs: CB, S, DE
Low needs: DL, CB, DT, TE, LB
The copperheads have no announced retirements, so I'm assuming they're planning to stick around and try to see if they can make a dynastic push. One interesting question is what they plan to do with OL Beaver-Dantes. He's under contract through the end of S23 but given that he's entering regression and hasn't updated since January, I could have seen him getting cut at some point. However, given the research @iStegosauruz has been doing into bot OL vs human OL I'd expect him to be keep for both of those seasons (if Austin agrees with that research, anyway).
The defense still seems most needing both DL positions and I'd certainly expect top CB Lavelle Jr. to remain. S Jensen I'd expect to still see starting time in a first season of regression over the other options that Austin has despite inactivity.
K Crisco still older, still needs to be replaced at some point.
High needs: DT, DE
Low needs: K, S
Well the Hawks had a huge change seeing as they're now losing their QB to the expansion Honolulu Howdoyouspellthats. They have DSFL QB Fujiwara at a smidge over 300 TPE right now so I don't think drafting another is likely. I could see them trying to wrangle another trade or FA pickup if there's a better opportunity to help cover them in S22, but maybe they'll just go with Fujiwara? Additionally, CB Archo who would have been entering regression this year announced retirement. I could see a couple more players follow up if they don't think the team has another run left in it without a high TPE QB but at the same time a mass retirement wave seems unlikely. I'd expect a possible revision of needs depending on how retirement ends up but we'll have to see.
So for offense, S12 WR Maddox is still a strong earner but can't keep it up forever.
Defense too seems like it could have either almost all the same players next year or 50% different if players decide now is the right time to retire outside of LB Vans who announced retirement at the conclusion of this season.
High needs: CB, LB
Low needs: S, DL, TE, WR
Chicago has also had some drastic changes, being involved in a major trade to pick up some players, moving their top WR to CB, and various retirements.
RB3 Utler has announced retirement at the end of the season and there's been hints that RB1 Leaf Jr. might as well. Top WR Espeeyeeceetee additionally moved his talents to CB but has also announced retirement. Additionally, presumptive future QB Vega was released by the team.
So for the offense, QB Jenkins is still getting older but now there's no future QB waiting so I think playing out the contract looks more likely. They did pick up S15 RB Hank as a strong second option along Leaf Jr. via trade. The receiving corps is now looking young with 2 S21 and 1 S19 player but I have to think RB will be more on the future GM's mind.
Defense also picked up a servicable DT via trade in the form of Harding but he seems to not be updating. but I think it still seems like an area they'll want to improve in. LB has the in-regression Lee retire after the season and CB still will be a weakness after Espeeyeeceetee's retirement.
High needs: CB, DL, LB
Low needs: S, K, RB, QB
I don't think much has changed for Colorado - the key needs seem to be replacing aging vets at CB and getting ready for older LB and WR positions.
High needs: CB
Low needs: LB, WR
NOLA still has a bunch of older players but that's paid off so far with a 9-0 start for the season and a league-leading 331 points.
I don't think the team's needs have shifted much, but seeing them trade into the second pick of the draft is a very interesting move. That suggests they felt the need to address one of their needs with a very specific player. Why might that be? I don't know. Given the success of their offense, though, maybe it's one of the top LBs like de Ville or Koniecpolski? We'll find out for sure at the draft I guess.
A defensive line low need creeps onto the list with the retirement of DT Faux at the end of the season. S21 pick DE Jimbo Jr. seems like the presumptive top replacement for next season but it seems like an area I could see Second Line try to get deeper in.
High needs: LB, WR
Low needs: S, DL
Otters are looking to have pretty similar needs. DE Lovote did announce retirement and so I think picking up another d-lineman may rise in importance a little bit.
Outside of that, I'd expect that their 9-2 record feels good in the locker room and expect a low number of retirees.
High needs: TE
Low needs: RB, K, DL
Philly was involved in both player trades this season and positionwise tradedan RB for a safety while swapping players at DT. The addition of McKinnie helps a bunch in the secondary for the future but they're still going to need to rebuild that for the future. CB McMorris did announce retirement which I think makes CB far and away the biggest position of need. Additionally, I think LB looks more important with 2 inactive players and a shored-up safety position..
High needs: S, CB, LB
Low needs: LB, DE, DT, S
S Swift announced retirement, which definitely looked likely. I don't think that changes their need in the position or others.
High needs: S
Low needs: LB, WR, RB, K
The Wraiths will be losing WR Gordon as an expansion GM.so that naturally puts WR back on the list as a need. I'm assuming that WR Swift sticks around in a 3rd season of regression but if he isn't then WR immediately becomes a big hole. I'm leaving CB on the list as a low need since CB Snuggles is getting older but I don't think they'll use a high pick on the position with way bigger needs at safety. I would put safety as a need twice, actually. In fact, I will.
High needs: S, LB, S again
Low needs: TE, CB, DE, WR
Conclusions
Given the rapid changes in the season with Chicago and the future expansion draft, this list of needs is obviously volatile. @PMoney wrote a great article looking at likely protection choices and depth in different positions if you want to try and piece the post-expansion draft team needs together yourself, but I'll personally wait until it happens. I hope to create another version of this post once that happens, but no promises (especially if the TPE tracker has no data while I'm working on writing again).
(I tried to exclude DSFL players, FAs, or those with 50 TPE from retirement listings)
NSFL Retirements since last post
Ahri Espeeyeeseetee - 1014 TPE, CB
Jake Utler - 216 TPE, RB
Marquees Acho - 900 TPE, CB
Max Lovote - 209 TPE, DE
Axel Hornbacher - 480 TPE, CB
Julian McMorris - 644 TPE, CB
NSFL S21-22 offseason retirements
(I didn't include these explicitly in the last post)
Tyler Swift - 363 TPE, S - note, moved from the original version of this post
Blake Faux - 734 TPE, DT
Siddhu Sarvepally - 246 TPE, RB
Raymond Vans - 576 TPE, LB
Johnny Slothface - 1021 TPE, LB
Leighton Lee - 556 TPE, LB
NSFL player movement due to trades since original post
Farley Hank ->
Jognson Harding ->
Ricardo Morris ->
Lamont McKinnie ->
Pending NSFL player movement due to expansion
Corvo Havran ->
Rayne Gordon ->
Team Breakdowns
The Outlaws traded away S McKinnie and DT Morris to Philly making it even more clear that they plan to focus on defense in this draft. The offensive core is still young outside of Irving at TE so I'd be surprised to see early picks used for it.
After trading away their top DT I think a replacement for DE Henry is even higher than before. CB Knight hasn't announced retirement, so I'm going to assume he'll stick around, but the Safety position is now a bit of a gaping void. I think CB falls a bit in priority because of the huge need in the other area along with hoping the DSFL CB Quin can make the step up next season as he's just broken 200 TPE..
High needs: CB, S, DE
Low needs: DL, CB, DT, TE, LB
The copperheads have no announced retirements, so I'm assuming they're planning to stick around and try to see if they can make a dynastic push. One interesting question is what they plan to do with OL Beaver-Dantes. He's under contract through the end of S23 but given that he's entering regression and hasn't updated since January, I could have seen him getting cut at some point. However, given the research @iStegosauruz has been doing into bot OL vs human OL I'd expect him to be keep for both of those seasons (if Austin agrees with that research, anyway).
The defense still seems most needing both DL positions and I'd certainly expect top CB Lavelle Jr. to remain. S Jensen I'd expect to still see starting time in a first season of regression over the other options that Austin has despite inactivity.
K Crisco still older, still needs to be replaced at some point.
High needs: DT, DE
Low needs: K, S
Well the Hawks had a huge change seeing as they're now losing their QB to the expansion Honolulu Howdoyouspellthats. They have DSFL QB Fujiwara at a smidge over 300 TPE right now so I don't think drafting another is likely. I could see them trying to wrangle another trade or FA pickup if there's a better opportunity to help cover them in S22, but maybe they'll just go with Fujiwara? Additionally, CB Archo who would have been entering regression this year announced retirement. I could see a couple more players follow up if they don't think the team has another run left in it without a high TPE QB but at the same time a mass retirement wave seems unlikely. I'd expect a possible revision of needs depending on how retirement ends up but we'll have to see.
So for offense, S12 WR Maddox is still a strong earner but can't keep it up forever.
Defense too seems like it could have either almost all the same players next year or 50% different if players decide now is the right time to retire outside of LB Vans who announced retirement at the conclusion of this season.
High needs: CB, LB
Low needs: S, DL, TE, WR
Chicago has also had some drastic changes, being involved in a major trade to pick up some players, moving their top WR to CB, and various retirements.
RB3 Utler has announced retirement at the end of the season and there's been hints that RB1 Leaf Jr. might as well. Top WR Espeeyeeceetee additionally moved his talents to CB but has also announced retirement. Additionally, presumptive future QB Vega was released by the team.
So for the offense, QB Jenkins is still getting older but now there's no future QB waiting so I think playing out the contract looks more likely. They did pick up S15 RB Hank as a strong second option along Leaf Jr. via trade. The receiving corps is now looking young with 2 S21 and 1 S19 player but I have to think RB will be more on the future GM's mind.
Defense also picked up a servicable DT via trade in the form of Harding but he seems to not be updating. but I think it still seems like an area they'll want to improve in. LB has the in-regression Lee retire after the season and CB still will be a weakness after Espeeyeeceetee's retirement.
High needs: CB, DL, LB
Low needs: S, K, RB, QB
I don't think much has changed for Colorado - the key needs seem to be replacing aging vets at CB and getting ready for older LB and WR positions.
High needs: CB
Low needs: LB, WR
NOLA still has a bunch of older players but that's paid off so far with a 9-0 start for the season and a league-leading 331 points.
I don't think the team's needs have shifted much, but seeing them trade into the second pick of the draft is a very interesting move. That suggests they felt the need to address one of their needs with a very specific player. Why might that be? I don't know. Given the success of their offense, though, maybe it's one of the top LBs like de Ville or Koniecpolski? We'll find out for sure at the draft I guess.
A defensive line low need creeps onto the list with the retirement of DT Faux at the end of the season. S21 pick DE Jimbo Jr. seems like the presumptive top replacement for next season but it seems like an area I could see Second Line try to get deeper in.
High needs: LB, WR
Low needs: S, DL
Otters are looking to have pretty similar needs. DE Lovote did announce retirement and so I think picking up another d-lineman may rise in importance a little bit.
Outside of that, I'd expect that their 9-2 record feels good in the locker room and expect a low number of retirees.
High needs: TE
Low needs: RB, K, DL
Philly was involved in both player trades this season and positionwise tradedan RB for a safety while swapping players at DT. The addition of McKinnie helps a bunch in the secondary for the future but they're still going to need to rebuild that for the future. CB McMorris did announce retirement which I think makes CB far and away the biggest position of need. Additionally, I think LB looks more important with 2 inactive players and a shored-up safety position..
High needs: S, CB, LB
Low needs: LB, DE, DT, S
S Swift announced retirement, which definitely looked likely. I don't think that changes their need in the position or others.
High needs: S
Low needs: LB, WR, RB, K
The Wraiths will be losing WR Gordon as an expansion GM.so that naturally puts WR back on the list as a need. I'm assuming that WR Swift sticks around in a 3rd season of regression but if he isn't then WR immediately becomes a big hole. I'm leaving CB on the list as a low need since CB Snuggles is getting older but I don't think they'll use a high pick on the position with way bigger needs at safety. I would put safety as a need twice, actually. In fact, I will.
High needs: S, LB, S again
Low needs: TE, CB, DE, WR
Conclusions
Given the rapid changes in the season with Chicago and the future expansion draft, this list of needs is obviously volatile. @PMoney wrote a great article looking at likely protection choices and depth in different positions if you want to try and piece the post-expansion draft team needs together yourself, but I'll personally wait until it happens. I hope to create another version of this post once that happens, but no promises (especially if the TPE tracker has no data while I'm working on writing again).
Draft Steal (retired S35 CB) - Profile/Update | Wiki
Troen Egghands (retired S22 DE) - Profile | Update | Wiki