For what this is based on, see my previous articles here:
For previous weeks see here:
So week 4, some big upsets were had, not least the defeat of #1 ranked Otters by #9 ranked SaberCats. Not only were SaberCats quite far down in the Elo rankings but Otters even had the Home Field Advantage on their side. This meant that SaberCats only had a 15.08% chance of winning this game. But win they did, this is the biggest % based upset we've seen so far this season. Despite the winning margin only being one touchdown, the difference in total Elo score of these two teams mean that SaberCats are this weeks biggest winners with +47.86 to their score, enough to launch them up three whole places. Otters, of course, dropped 47.86 but have still managed to cling onto the top spot thanks to their previous substatial lead and the this weeks fall of the Second Line.
Speaking of Second Line, that was our second biggest upset of the week as the Copperheads had a 32.11% chance of taking the W. The NOLA stumble here cost them -41.11 points and 2nd place in the rankings. Had they won here, they'd easily have been in first now.
Yeti climb to second place and are in reaching distance of first place this coming week.
The weekly rankings are as follows:
1(=)
1,641.26
2(+1)
1,618.23
3(-1)
1,594.51
4(=)
1,572.39
5(+1)
1,505.97
6(+3)
1,501.73
7(-2)
1,497.55
8(+2)
1,481.67
9(-2)
1,437.96
10(-2)
1,423.94
11(=)
1,408.05
12(=)
1,283.81
Week 5
@
Outlaws pulled off a decent win last week against Hahalua and it's put them in a position to be able to climb out of the bottom two in the tables, especially if they can beat the #1 ranked Otters at home. Unfortunately the odds are not good for them as Otters have a 84.77% chance of taking the W here. Almost the same % as last week and we saw how that went.
@
It's not been a good season for the Butchers. There's now a gap of 124.24 between them in 12th position and 11th place. It will take some effort to climb again. However, the beauty of being so firmly in last place is that, if you do win, you're guaranteed a solid Elo boost. Butchers certainly need that here but with 83.93% chance that Sailfish take this one, it's quite unlikely.
@
Hawks entered the season in 4th place but have slowly sunk down to 7th in the previous four weeks. Conversely, Yeti started off in 5th and are now tickling the scrotum of first place. Can Hawks hold off the steady march of the Yeti? It is doubtful as Yeti have a 74.44% chance of going 5-0 this week.
@
Hahalua have lost a couple of steps in their battle against Sailfish recently. They sit in 9th place staring up at the loft heights of 5th that the Sailfish control. Good news is that, a win for the Sailfish over Butchers is unlikely to get them many points while if Hahalua can best the Second Line, they can close the gap substantially. They will need to bring their A game however as there's a 62.88% chance Second Line will be victorious this week.
@
Both teams here are hot off underdog wins but SaberCats are hotter, knocking off the top Otters. Both teams will be looking to capitalize on this momentum but only one will be victorious. Unless of course it's a tie but that doesn't help my narrative. The edge here goes to the SaberCats who are both the home team and the higher ranked team this week. We give them a 62.00% of winning.
@
Last weeks loss to Sailfish wasn't great for Liberty, scoring only 3 points, out of form for the team so far this season. It caused them to drop back down to 10th place in the rankings. They've previously had strong showings against top ranked teams and there's been some suggestion they're deserving of a higher spot in these tables. However I do not control the tables. I am simply the shepherd of the numbers, bringing you the unbiased findings as I get them. Wraiths to win this week with a 61.78% likeliness. So it is fortold.
Summary
@ = 84.77%
@ = 83.93%
@ = 74.44%
@ = 62.88%
@ = 62.00%
@ = 61.78%
Disclaimer: I am no stats expert. There may be mistakes, errors, data entry or otherwise. These are the figures spat out by my sheet which has maintained a prediction accuracy of ~68% (rising to 80% in the playoffs). Take it all with a pinch of salt.
Speaking of Second Line, that was our second biggest upset of the week as the Copperheads had a 32.11% chance of taking the W. The NOLA stumble here cost them -41.11 points and 2nd place in the rankings. Had they won here, they'd easily have been in first now.
Yeti climb to second place and are in reaching distance of first place this coming week.
The weekly rankings are as follows:
1(=)
1,641.262(+1)
1,618.233(-1)
1,594.514(=)
1,572.395(+1)
1,505.976(+3)
1,501.737(-2)
1,497.558(+2)
1,481.679(-2)
1,437.9610(-2)
1,423.9411(=)
1,408.0512(=)
1,283.81Week 5
@ Outlaws pulled off a decent win last week against Hahalua and it's put them in a position to be able to climb out of the bottom two in the tables, especially if they can beat the #1 ranked Otters at home. Unfortunately the odds are not good for them as Otters have a 84.77% chance of taking the W here. Almost the same % as last week and we saw how that went.
@ It's not been a good season for the Butchers. There's now a gap of 124.24 between them in 12th position and 11th place. It will take some effort to climb again. However, the beauty of being so firmly in last place is that, if you do win, you're guaranteed a solid Elo boost. Butchers certainly need that here but with 83.93% chance that Sailfish take this one, it's quite unlikely.
@ Hawks entered the season in 4th place but have slowly sunk down to 7th in the previous four weeks. Conversely, Yeti started off in 5th and are now tickling the scrotum of first place. Can Hawks hold off the steady march of the Yeti? It is doubtful as Yeti have a 74.44% chance of going 5-0 this week.
@ Hahalua have lost a couple of steps in their battle against Sailfish recently. They sit in 9th place staring up at the loft heights of 5th that the Sailfish control. Good news is that, a win for the Sailfish over Butchers is unlikely to get them many points while if Hahalua can best the Second Line, they can close the gap substantially. They will need to bring their A game however as there's a 62.88% chance Second Line will be victorious this week.
@ Both teams here are hot off underdog wins but SaberCats are hotter, knocking off the top Otters. Both teams will be looking to capitalize on this momentum but only one will be victorious. Unless of course it's a tie but that doesn't help my narrative. The edge here goes to the SaberCats who are both the home team and the higher ranked team this week. We give them a 62.00% of winning.
@ Last weeks loss to Sailfish wasn't great for Liberty, scoring only 3 points, out of form for the team so far this season. It caused them to drop back down to 10th place in the rankings. They've previously had strong showings against top ranked teams and there's been some suggestion they're deserving of a higher spot in these tables. However I do not control the tables. I am simply the shepherd of the numbers, bringing you the unbiased findings as I get them. Wraiths to win this week with a 61.78% likeliness. So it is fortold.
Summary
@ = 84.77% @ = 83.93% @ = 74.44% @ = 62.88% @ = 62.00% @ = 61.78%Disclaimer: I am no stats expert. There may be mistakes, errors, data entry or otherwise. These are the figures spat out by my sheet which has maintained a prediction accuracy of ~68% (rising to 80% in the playoffs). Take it all with a pinch of salt.
Hamish MacAndrew #20 - Safety - Austin Copperheads - [Player Profile - Update Thread - Wiki page - Twitter]
![[Image: OCL63Bs.png]](https://i.imgur.com/OCL63Bs.png)
