I don't have any ground breaking findings on a relatively unknown league issue for you this time. Nor do I have any fun/creative concepts that eventually lead to a new rule (see player name length limit). This time, I want to talk about the history of the Kicker of the Year award. But I don't want to bore you or myself by just talking about the winner. I want to look at the competition and see if the winner deserved the award. To do that, I've made a simple formula that gives a kicker a score based on how well they played.
((XPMade/2)-(XPMissed*3)) + ((FGMade*2)-((FGMiTwnt*8)+(FGMiTrty*5)+(FGMiFrty*3)+(FGMiFfty*2)))
If you're scared of math, I will explain what this formula is doing. I first had to determine how a kicker should be able to receive a score. So I decided every extra point they make is half a point towards their final score. I chose half a point since an extra point attempt is made after every single touchdown. There's no reason to over-inflate the score with something as common as an extra point. Every field goal is worth two points towards the score. At first, I had <20 being worth 1, 20-39 worth 2, 40-49 worth 3 and 50+ worth 5, but decided to do away with that in favor of a system that punishes misses instead. Every missed extra point costs 3 points, because there's not much excuse for a kicker to miss from that close. Field goals missed from between 20-29 will cost 8 points, 30-39 costs 5, 40-49 costs 3, and 50+ costs 2. As the attempt gets farther away, it's increasingly difficult to make the kick accurately, so if a kicker misses 2 from 50+, they won't be punished as bad as they would if they missed one from 20-29.
TL;DR
Every XPM is .5 points
Every XP Miss is -3 Points
Every FGM is 2 points
Every FG Miss 50+ is -2
Every FG Miss 40-49 is -3
Every FG Miss 30-39 is -5
Every FG Miss 20-29 is -8
Every FG Miss <20 is -15 (this is only precautionary, since no one has ever missed from under 20)
After I figured out a good formula, I went through every season and calculated each kicker's score. For the sake of this article, I will discuss every season in the following format:
SEASON#
[SCORES, AS IMAGE]
Brief analysis of the scores, 4-8 sentences.
Formula's KotY Pick, along with explanation if necessary. The formula's pick will always be the player(s) with the highest score, regardless of if another kicker had better stats overall.
My KotY Pick, along with explanation if necessary.
Actual KotY Pick, along with explanation if necessary.
Seeing as though this is my article, I also want to make a few predictions as to how the formula will differ from the real life results. I will address these predictions when they are proven either right or wrong.
1. Kulture Fulture will win "only" 4 KotY awards.
2. Alex D. will win the S18 and S22 awards (my bias is showing).
3. The multi-player Cristiano Ronaldo will win 1 KotY.
Okay, no more talking from me. Let's see the results of every KotY race, from the new perspective given from this formula.
SEASON 1
Season 1 is a doozy, simply because the kicking wasn't at all consistent. This is the only season where no player got a score over 50. It's also one of only three seasons where a kicker got a negative score. This was a 4-way race between Turkleton, Booter, Kicksit, and Walsh. Although Walsh was the most consistent of the four, he didn't quite have the same volume of kicks the other three had, and was benched for Tarkenton halfway through the season.
Formula's Pick: Turk Turkleton. Fairly simple. Highest score of the four, played a full season, and didn't miss as much as most other kickers.
My Pick: Turk Turkleton. Same reasons as above. If Walsh played a full season, he'd be my pick, but he unfortunately didn't.
Actual Pick: Archibald Booter. Interesting pick, but isn't totally unexpected. 2nd highest formula score (only 1.5 points behind Turkleton) along with most field goals made, however missed 6 FG's, including 4 from 40-49. A fair pick considering this season was a rocky start for kickers.
SEASON 2
Another wacky season for kickers. This time, there's a clear cutoff between who was good and who was not. Ronaldo, Booter, and Turkleton are in what I believe is the closest race in the award's history, with Ronaldo and Booter tied for first, and Turkleton being only half a point behind them. And then there's the rest of the kickers who failed to get a score over 30. Laces was benched halfway through the season in favor of Nugent, and Al Sims also played for some reason.
Formula's Pick: Cristiano Ronaldo & Archibald Booter. A shared award! These two were first and second respectively in extra points, and scored just .5 more points than 3rd place runner Turkleton. And with Ronaldo half-winning this award, my 3rd prediction is half-right!
My Pick: Cristiano Ronaldo. Compared to Booter, Ronaldo missed 2 less extra points, which to me outweighs the 2 more 40-49 misses.
Actual Pick: Turk Turkleton. Turkleton stayed in, and eventually won this race just like how Booter won it in season 1. Made the most field goals, but also missed a few more than the other two. Turk also missed one from 20-29, which really brought their score down.
SEASON 3
Hardly a race here, and more a fight for 3rd place. Ronaldo puts up the first 60+ and 70+ score season, Al Sims puts up 57, and the rest continue to struggle to find a footing. Lombardi also plays 4 games for the Wraiths to score a whopping 0.5 points.
Formula's Pick: Cristiano Ronaldo. My 3rd prediction is now completely right.
My Pick: Cristiano Ronaldo.
Actual Pick: Al Sims. This one took me by surprise. It's easy to see why he won when you see how much less he missed, but he simply was too far behind in field goals to justify it. Ronaldo may have missed 3 from 30-39, but Al missed from 20-29. It is the second largest point margin between the formula's pick and the actual pick. It makes even less sense when one considers Ronaldo was found out as a multi AFTER the award was given. Props to Sims for winning it, but Ronaldo was robbed.
SEASON 4
This time we have much more stability in kicking. 5 kickers scored 40+, and no one was benched or snuck onto the field! This race is between the top 2 kickers, Harris and Ronaldo, and it appears that this is about the time when the multi scandal was found out, so Ronaldo is ultimately eliminated from this race.
Formula's Pick: Stephen Harris.
My Pick: Stephen Harris.
Actual Pick: Stephen Harris. This is the first time the formula and the actual picks are the same. Also, Harris missed only one extra point, compared to Ronaldo's 2 XP misses and 1 FG miss.
SEASON 5
Kickers seem to have figured it out by this point, with 6 out of 8 scoring above 40, plus Jackson just missing the mark by .5 points. This time, it's Lombardi and Harris vying for this KotY, with Ronaldo at this point suspended from the league. Turkleton, Kicksit, and Madlad are out of this race due to the amount of inexcusable XP misses. Perhaps it's wrong to call the kicking situation at this point "figured out" now that I look at it. Rather, this appears to be a time of high-volume kicking.
Formula's Pick: Joseph Lombardi.
My Pick: Stephen Harris. A quick look at the numbers show that Lombardi missed two from the 30-39 range, while Harris only missed one from 40-49. Seeing as though Harris is only .5 points behind Lombardi, I will bet against the formula and say that the more accurate kicker wins this race.
Actual Pick: Stephen Harris. Seems as though my opinion was shared with the voters. Sometimes a formula doesn't tell the whole story. Harris rightfully wins his second KotY.
SEASON 6
This time, we have TWO kickers with a score of 70+, along with two more just missing the 60 mark. And it looks like Lombardi and Peg Leg shared some playing time as well. Madlad led the league in extra points, Harris led in field goals, Blewitt missed a few too many to be a true competitor in this race, and Jackson missed none of his FG's. This is a very fascinating race.
Formula's Pick: Bradley Madlad.
My Pick: Bradley Madlad.
Actual Pick: Bradley Madlad & Dean Jackson. The voters decided this one to be a tie, with Madlad being the highest scorer in the formula, and Dean Jackson having the least misses in the league. Despite the 17.5 point margin between Jackson and Madlad's formula score, I agree with this decision.
SEASON 7
No contest here. Stephen Harris posted a score of 98, the highest score this formula's given. Blewitt takes second place. McCormick went 100% in his attempts this year, but is second to last in the score.
Formula's Pick: Stephen Harris.
My Pick: Stephen Harris.
Actual Pick: Stephen Harris. His third KotY.
SEASON 8
Madlad, McCormick, and Forfeit lead this race, with Madlad having both the highest score and least misses. McCormick has the most field goals, but not by much, and Forfeit has the most extra points.
Formula's Pick: Bradley Madlad.
My Pick: Bradley Madlad.
Actual Pick: Micycle McCormick. This pick is perhaps justifiable when one looks at the extra points and sees McCormick missed none, while Madlad missed one. However McCormick still missed two field goals. This one, while I disagree with, can go both ways. The voters went the other way with this choice.
SEASON 9
Iyah Blewitt gives us the second highest score seen with 95, and combines it with the fact that he had a perfect season. In a way, this is a better performance than Stephen Harris's just two seasons prior. Oh, and all but one kicker scored above 40.
Formula's Pick: Iyah Blewitt.
My Pick: Iyah Blewitt.
Actual Pick: Iyah Blewitt.
SEASON 10
Another tied race between the top two kickers. Peg Leg missed two extra points compared to Turkleton's three, but also missed one from 40-49. McCormick, Jackson, and Forfeit fought valiantly for the "I also played well" spot, with McCormick coming out on top with a score of 60.
Formula's Pick: Peg Leg & Turk Turkleton.
My Pick: Peg Leg & Turk Turkleton. I believe both played equally well. their scores are so similar in XP's and FG's, and the differences are so small, neither one should be bumped over the other.
Actual Pick: Turk Turkleton. However the voters disagree with me. Now if they voted for only Peg Leg, I'd understand, since missing an extra point is ultimately worse than missing a 40+ yard field goal, however they didn't vote like that, to which I say shame on them for picking a favorite.
SEASON 11
I'm not sure if this is a two-way race or a five-way race. Most of these kickers are within a pretty small margin of one another, but there's also a pretty clear leader. Leg and Meoff missed too many extra points, so they're out, and Jackson didn't make enough field goals to get within range of the top two, but my brain as of the time I'm writing this, 3:42 AM on July 11th which is the final day of double media, is telling me this is a five way race! I'm just going to put my foot down and say this race is between TURK! TURKLETON! and N/A! FORFEIT!
Formula's Pick: Turk Turkleton.
My Pick: Turk Turkleon.
Actual Pick: Turk Turkleton. Quick story for you. my now 3:45 AM brain put the data in wrong and took 18 points away from Turk, which put him at 4th place. So when I saw he actually won I went "Whaaaaat?". Thankfully, I'm still sharp enough to realize that I goofed that up and have fixed it. Hopefully the rest of the data is otherwise accurate since. If it turns out I DID make a mistake, tell me I goofed so I can ungoof it.
SEASON 12
Donaldson, Leg, and Fulture are the three in season 12's race. Fulture is the most accurate, Donaldson having the highest score, and Leg missing none of his extra points. Donaldson and Leg did however miss a 30-39 yarder each, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the voters go with Fulture for that reason alone.
Formula's Pick: Neo Donaldson.
My Pick: Neo Donaldson. I can't justify Peg Leg's two extra misses enough to vote him over Donaldson, even though he missed no XP's.
Actual Pick: Neo Donaldson. I must note here that the formula has agreed with the actual vote the past 4 (3 1/2 technically) picks now.
SEASON 13
Fulture is the clear winner this season, missing only a single field goal from 30-39. Everyone missed at least two extra points and two field goals.
Formula's Pick: Kulture Fulture.
My Pick: Kulture Fulture.
Actual Pick: Kulture Fulture.
SEASON 14
Fulture at first glance is once again the clear winner. Donaldson missed 7 extra points which is automatically enough to remove him from the race (despite being in second place!), however Dean Jackson completed all of his attempts. Nah who am I kidding, volume matters too, and Jackson doesn't quite have that.
Formula's Pick: Kulture Fulture.
My Pick: Kulture Fulture.
Actual Pick: Kulture Fulture.
SEASON 15
Ah, season 15. My first season in the NSFL. A simpler time. Back when I was flexing my 8 syllable last name as I missed 2 extra points and 4 field goals. This is also the season where Alex Frost was carried to first place in the formula score thanks to a high-scoring Baltimore offense. He can't be discredited, of course, but the two kickers below him, Kulture Fulture and Dean Jackson, also have good arguments as to why they're season 15's KotY. Meoff snuck in for a single game as well, and was able to post the last negative score we've seen (so far)
Formula's Pick: Alex Frost.
My Pick: Dean Jackson. I think Jackson should win because he was perfect in extra points. He did miss 3 from 40-49, but he also made 10.
Actual Pick: Kulture Fulture. I guess being the most accurate in field goals is what the voters cared about. Which I pretty much agree with. Missing 4 field goals is definitely a stain on one's seasonal performance, and when the formula leader is only leading because of the amount of extra points he made, the voters definitely decided this was a season where extra points should be ignored.
SEASON 16
Fulture continues his reign of terror as I put up a formidable 61 points to bring the margin down to 12. Meanwhile, another Frost materializes and takes last place.
Formula's Pick: Kulture Fulture.
My Pick: Kulture Fulture.
Actual Pick: Kulture Fulture.
SEASON 17
Fulture
Formula's Pick: Kulture Fulture.
My Pick: Kulture Fulture.
Actual Pick: Kulture Fulture.
SEASON 18
Right! Part of my second prediction will be answered here! It's a no. Fulture wins again. No justification for me anyways, Fulture had a perfect season compared to my two XP misses and 50+ miss. On the bright side, I did keep the score close, with this being the only time in Fulture's reign anyone was able to have a margin within 1 point. Oh and there's also another Frost.
Formula's Pick: Kulture Fulture.
My Pick: Kulture Fulture.
Actual Pick: Kulture Fulture. This also disproves my first prediction. Fulture won 5 under this formula. let me take a moment to say winning two is very notable. Winning 6 in a row is perhaps rolling a d20, 20 times in a row. He undoubtedly benefited from weak competition several times (S14, S16, S17) but even then still wins 3! I gotta move on, this is killing my 4:31 AM brain.
SEASON 19
This time, Alex D. takes first place, while Brand, Prohaska, and Fulture run for second. However, Fulture went 100% on all his attempts. Is that going to be enough to win a 7th KotY, this time from 4th place? Also, is that a 4th Frost now? I can't tell, my brain is nearly fried.
Formula's Pick: Alex Dasistwirklichseinnachname.
My Pick: Alex Dasistwirklichseinnachname.
Actual Pick: Alex Dasistwirklichseinnachname. It's not! This time, volume wins over accuracy. Or perhaps this was a rare case of voter fatigue in the league. Either way, win for me.
SEASON 20
I decided I needed to sleep to get a fresh perspective on my findings. It is now 1:36 PM and I'm rested enough to realize that Crisco's season 20 run was one of the more impressive runs we've seen. If you ignore all the numbers, he made a 65 yard field goal. That alone is enough to justify winning KotY. In second place, Alex D. once again plays great but not great enough to justify a KotY nod.
Formula's Pick: Alfredo Crisco.
My Pick: Alfredo Crisco.
Actual Pick: Alfredo Crisco. The formula has accurately predicted the last 5 KotY winners now.
SEASON 21
This at first looks like another easy win for Crisco. Most field goals, with all the misses being from 40+, but this race is actually much closer than it appears. Crisco, along with Prohaska, missed 3 extra points. Meanwhile in 3rd place, Alex D.'s justification is the fact he missed two attempts, 1 XP and 1 40+ FG, compared to the 6 misses by Prohaska and Crisco.
Formula's Pick: Alfredo Crisco.
My Pick: Alex Dasistwirklichseinnachname.
Actual Pick: Alex Dasistwirklichseinnachname. The precedence up until this point was that volume trumped accuracy. This time the voters went against the grain and picked the most accurate kicker. This is only the second time a kicker with a score under 50 was selected KotY, the first of course being that crazy season 1.
SEASON 22
Finally, we reach last season's race. Alex D., Smalls, and Brand are the leaders of this race. All 3 kickers made 25 plus field goals, so the extra points this time around are going to provide that extra push. Brand doesn't have that, and Smalls missed 3, along with a missed FG from 30-39. Alex's only misses came at the end of the season.
Formula's Pick: Alex Dasistwirklichseinnachname. The second part of my second prediction was true.
My Pick: Alex Dasistwirklichseinnachname.
Actual Pick: Dougie Smalls. Excuse my bias, but I don't see how he won. 3 missed field goals and a miss from 30-39 are somehow better than missing 1 from 40-49 and 1 from 50+? I thought the KotY award was given to be best performing kicker, not the second best! Now if he went 100% in his attempts there'd be no contest, but that's not what happened. Perhaps the voters don't want to give Alex D. the leverage for a possible Hall of Fame push out of fear that their savior Kulture Fulture might get competition over who is the GOAT kicker. This is still a choice I am not happy with, but there's no retroactive voting, so I'm going to have to live with my bias. And if, by chance, Dougie is reading this, I have nothing against you, in fact I congratulate you for winning, I just think there's no reason you should've won at all.
So the formula accurately predicted the eventual Kicker of the Year 13.5/22 times, and ranked the eventual winner in the top two 20.5/22 times. I'd say this is a very watertight formula. The two instances it didn't was the season 6 half vote of Dean Jackson and season 21's Alex D., both of whom were voted for their accuracy.
While we're here, how's about we take a look at the season 23 kicker race?
SEASON 23
So it looks like I'm not in this race this time (Between you and me, I blame the offense for sputtering out around the 40 and not a more convenient yardage, perhaps within the 20-35 range). This race is concentrated on 3 young kickers, Banana, Smalls, and McDairmid. The first two have the volume numbers down, with only a half point margin between the two, while McDairmid, a large 12 points away, does have the claim to a perfect season so far. With 3 weeks left in the season, it'll be interesting to see this race finish.
Because I can't find a way to fit this into the article, here's the top 25 highest score averages. I initially had plans to do a much deeper analysis but with this already being my longest ever article and having to meet a post deadline because of double media, I had to scrap most of my ideas. This, however I think is very fascinating.
((XPMade/2)-(XPMissed*3)) + ((FGMade*2)-((FGMiTwnt*8)+(FGMiTrty*5)+(FGMiFrty*3)+(FGMiFfty*2)))
If you're scared of math, I will explain what this formula is doing. I first had to determine how a kicker should be able to receive a score. So I decided every extra point they make is half a point towards their final score. I chose half a point since an extra point attempt is made after every single touchdown. There's no reason to over-inflate the score with something as common as an extra point. Every field goal is worth two points towards the score. At first, I had <20 being worth 1, 20-39 worth 2, 40-49 worth 3 and 50+ worth 5, but decided to do away with that in favor of a system that punishes misses instead. Every missed extra point costs 3 points, because there's not much excuse for a kicker to miss from that close. Field goals missed from between 20-29 will cost 8 points, 30-39 costs 5, 40-49 costs 3, and 50+ costs 2. As the attempt gets farther away, it's increasingly difficult to make the kick accurately, so if a kicker misses 2 from 50+, they won't be punished as bad as they would if they missed one from 20-29.
TL;DR
Every XPM is .5 points
Every XP Miss is -3 Points
Every FGM is 2 points
Every FG Miss 50+ is -2
Every FG Miss 40-49 is -3
Every FG Miss 30-39 is -5
Every FG Miss 20-29 is -8
Every FG Miss <20 is -15 (this is only precautionary, since no one has ever missed from under 20)
After I figured out a good formula, I went through every season and calculated each kicker's score. For the sake of this article, I will discuss every season in the following format:
SEASON#
[SCORES, AS IMAGE]
Brief analysis of the scores, 4-8 sentences.
Formula's KotY Pick, along with explanation if necessary. The formula's pick will always be the player(s) with the highest score, regardless of if another kicker had better stats overall.
My KotY Pick, along with explanation if necessary.
Actual KotY Pick, along with explanation if necessary.
Seeing as though this is my article, I also want to make a few predictions as to how the formula will differ from the real life results. I will address these predictions when they are proven either right or wrong.
1. Kulture Fulture will win "only" 4 KotY awards.
2. Alex D. will win the S18 and S22 awards (my bias is showing).
3. The multi-player Cristiano Ronaldo will win 1 KotY.
Okay, no more talking from me. Let's see the results of every KotY race, from the new perspective given from this formula.
SEASON 1
Season 1 is a doozy, simply because the kicking wasn't at all consistent. This is the only season where no player got a score over 50. It's also one of only three seasons where a kicker got a negative score. This was a 4-way race between Turkleton, Booter, Kicksit, and Walsh. Although Walsh was the most consistent of the four, he didn't quite have the same volume of kicks the other three had, and was benched for Tarkenton halfway through the season.
Formula's Pick: Turk Turkleton. Fairly simple. Highest score of the four, played a full season, and didn't miss as much as most other kickers.
My Pick: Turk Turkleton. Same reasons as above. If Walsh played a full season, he'd be my pick, but he unfortunately didn't.
Actual Pick: Archibald Booter. Interesting pick, but isn't totally unexpected. 2nd highest formula score (only 1.5 points behind Turkleton) along with most field goals made, however missed 6 FG's, including 4 from 40-49. A fair pick considering this season was a rocky start for kickers.
SEASON 2
Another wacky season for kickers. This time, there's a clear cutoff between who was good and who was not. Ronaldo, Booter, and Turkleton are in what I believe is the closest race in the award's history, with Ronaldo and Booter tied for first, and Turkleton being only half a point behind them. And then there's the rest of the kickers who failed to get a score over 30. Laces was benched halfway through the season in favor of Nugent, and Al Sims also played for some reason.
Formula's Pick: Cristiano Ronaldo & Archibald Booter. A shared award! These two were first and second respectively in extra points, and scored just .5 more points than 3rd place runner Turkleton. And with Ronaldo half-winning this award, my 3rd prediction is half-right!
My Pick: Cristiano Ronaldo. Compared to Booter, Ronaldo missed 2 less extra points, which to me outweighs the 2 more 40-49 misses.
Actual Pick: Turk Turkleton. Turkleton stayed in, and eventually won this race just like how Booter won it in season 1. Made the most field goals, but also missed a few more than the other two. Turk also missed one from 20-29, which really brought their score down.
SEASON 3
Hardly a race here, and more a fight for 3rd place. Ronaldo puts up the first 60+ and 70+ score season, Al Sims puts up 57, and the rest continue to struggle to find a footing. Lombardi also plays 4 games for the Wraiths to score a whopping 0.5 points.
Formula's Pick: Cristiano Ronaldo. My 3rd prediction is now completely right.
My Pick: Cristiano Ronaldo.
Actual Pick: Al Sims. This one took me by surprise. It's easy to see why he won when you see how much less he missed, but he simply was too far behind in field goals to justify it. Ronaldo may have missed 3 from 30-39, but Al missed from 20-29. It is the second largest point margin between the formula's pick and the actual pick. It makes even less sense when one considers Ronaldo was found out as a multi AFTER the award was given. Props to Sims for winning it, but Ronaldo was robbed.
SEASON 4
This time we have much more stability in kicking. 5 kickers scored 40+, and no one was benched or snuck onto the field! This race is between the top 2 kickers, Harris and Ronaldo, and it appears that this is about the time when the multi scandal was found out, so Ronaldo is ultimately eliminated from this race.
Formula's Pick: Stephen Harris.
My Pick: Stephen Harris.
Actual Pick: Stephen Harris. This is the first time the formula and the actual picks are the same. Also, Harris missed only one extra point, compared to Ronaldo's 2 XP misses and 1 FG miss.
SEASON 5
Kickers seem to have figured it out by this point, with 6 out of 8 scoring above 40, plus Jackson just missing the mark by .5 points. This time, it's Lombardi and Harris vying for this KotY, with Ronaldo at this point suspended from the league. Turkleton, Kicksit, and Madlad are out of this race due to the amount of inexcusable XP misses. Perhaps it's wrong to call the kicking situation at this point "figured out" now that I look at it. Rather, this appears to be a time of high-volume kicking.
Formula's Pick: Joseph Lombardi.
My Pick: Stephen Harris. A quick look at the numbers show that Lombardi missed two from the 30-39 range, while Harris only missed one from 40-49. Seeing as though Harris is only .5 points behind Lombardi, I will bet against the formula and say that the more accurate kicker wins this race.
Actual Pick: Stephen Harris. Seems as though my opinion was shared with the voters. Sometimes a formula doesn't tell the whole story. Harris rightfully wins his second KotY.
SEASON 6
This time, we have TWO kickers with a score of 70+, along with two more just missing the 60 mark. And it looks like Lombardi and Peg Leg shared some playing time as well. Madlad led the league in extra points, Harris led in field goals, Blewitt missed a few too many to be a true competitor in this race, and Jackson missed none of his FG's. This is a very fascinating race.
Formula's Pick: Bradley Madlad.
My Pick: Bradley Madlad.
Actual Pick: Bradley Madlad & Dean Jackson. The voters decided this one to be a tie, with Madlad being the highest scorer in the formula, and Dean Jackson having the least misses in the league. Despite the 17.5 point margin between Jackson and Madlad's formula score, I agree with this decision.
SEASON 7
No contest here. Stephen Harris posted a score of 98, the highest score this formula's given. Blewitt takes second place. McCormick went 100% in his attempts this year, but is second to last in the score.
Formula's Pick: Stephen Harris.
My Pick: Stephen Harris.
Actual Pick: Stephen Harris. His third KotY.
SEASON 8
Madlad, McCormick, and Forfeit lead this race, with Madlad having both the highest score and least misses. McCormick has the most field goals, but not by much, and Forfeit has the most extra points.
Formula's Pick: Bradley Madlad.
My Pick: Bradley Madlad.
Actual Pick: Micycle McCormick. This pick is perhaps justifiable when one looks at the extra points and sees McCormick missed none, while Madlad missed one. However McCormick still missed two field goals. This one, while I disagree with, can go both ways. The voters went the other way with this choice.
SEASON 9
Iyah Blewitt gives us the second highest score seen with 95, and combines it with the fact that he had a perfect season. In a way, this is a better performance than Stephen Harris's just two seasons prior. Oh, and all but one kicker scored above 40.
Formula's Pick: Iyah Blewitt.
My Pick: Iyah Blewitt.
Actual Pick: Iyah Blewitt.
SEASON 10
Another tied race between the top two kickers. Peg Leg missed two extra points compared to Turkleton's three, but also missed one from 40-49. McCormick, Jackson, and Forfeit fought valiantly for the "I also played well" spot, with McCormick coming out on top with a score of 60.
Formula's Pick: Peg Leg & Turk Turkleton.
My Pick: Peg Leg & Turk Turkleton. I believe both played equally well. their scores are so similar in XP's and FG's, and the differences are so small, neither one should be bumped over the other.
Actual Pick: Turk Turkleton. However the voters disagree with me. Now if they voted for only Peg Leg, I'd understand, since missing an extra point is ultimately worse than missing a 40+ yard field goal, however they didn't vote like that, to which I say shame on them for picking a favorite.
SEASON 11
I'm not sure if this is a two-way race or a five-way race. Most of these kickers are within a pretty small margin of one another, but there's also a pretty clear leader. Leg and Meoff missed too many extra points, so they're out, and Jackson didn't make enough field goals to get within range of the top two, but my brain as of the time I'm writing this, 3:42 AM on July 11th which is the final day of double media, is telling me this is a five way race! I'm just going to put my foot down and say this race is between TURK! TURKLETON! and N/A! FORFEIT!
Formula's Pick: Turk Turkleton.
My Pick: Turk Turkleon.
Actual Pick: Turk Turkleton. Quick story for you. my now 3:45 AM brain put the data in wrong and took 18 points away from Turk, which put him at 4th place. So when I saw he actually won I went "Whaaaaat?". Thankfully, I'm still sharp enough to realize that I goofed that up and have fixed it. Hopefully the rest of the data is otherwise accurate since. If it turns out I DID make a mistake, tell me I goofed so I can ungoof it.
SEASON 12
Donaldson, Leg, and Fulture are the three in season 12's race. Fulture is the most accurate, Donaldson having the highest score, and Leg missing none of his extra points. Donaldson and Leg did however miss a 30-39 yarder each, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the voters go with Fulture for that reason alone.
Formula's Pick: Neo Donaldson.
My Pick: Neo Donaldson. I can't justify Peg Leg's two extra misses enough to vote him over Donaldson, even though he missed no XP's.
Actual Pick: Neo Donaldson. I must note here that the formula has agreed with the actual vote the past 4 (3 1/2 technically) picks now.
SEASON 13
Fulture is the clear winner this season, missing only a single field goal from 30-39. Everyone missed at least two extra points and two field goals.
Formula's Pick: Kulture Fulture.
My Pick: Kulture Fulture.
Actual Pick: Kulture Fulture.
SEASON 14
Fulture at first glance is once again the clear winner. Donaldson missed 7 extra points which is automatically enough to remove him from the race (despite being in second place!), however Dean Jackson completed all of his attempts. Nah who am I kidding, volume matters too, and Jackson doesn't quite have that.
Formula's Pick: Kulture Fulture.
My Pick: Kulture Fulture.
Actual Pick: Kulture Fulture.
SEASON 15
Ah, season 15. My first season in the NSFL. A simpler time. Back when I was flexing my 8 syllable last name as I missed 2 extra points and 4 field goals. This is also the season where Alex Frost was carried to first place in the formula score thanks to a high-scoring Baltimore offense. He can't be discredited, of course, but the two kickers below him, Kulture Fulture and Dean Jackson, also have good arguments as to why they're season 15's KotY. Meoff snuck in for a single game as well, and was able to post the last negative score we've seen (so far)
Formula's Pick: Alex Frost.
My Pick: Dean Jackson. I think Jackson should win because he was perfect in extra points. He did miss 3 from 40-49, but he also made 10.
Actual Pick: Kulture Fulture. I guess being the most accurate in field goals is what the voters cared about. Which I pretty much agree with. Missing 4 field goals is definitely a stain on one's seasonal performance, and when the formula leader is only leading because of the amount of extra points he made, the voters definitely decided this was a season where extra points should be ignored.
SEASON 16
Fulture continues his reign of terror as I put up a formidable 61 points to bring the margin down to 12. Meanwhile, another Frost materializes and takes last place.
Formula's Pick: Kulture Fulture.
My Pick: Kulture Fulture.
Actual Pick: Kulture Fulture.
SEASON 17
Fulture
Formula's Pick: Kulture Fulture.
My Pick: Kulture Fulture.
Actual Pick: Kulture Fulture.
SEASON 18
Right! Part of my second prediction will be answered here! It's a no. Fulture wins again. No justification for me anyways, Fulture had a perfect season compared to my two XP misses and 50+ miss. On the bright side, I did keep the score close, with this being the only time in Fulture's reign anyone was able to have a margin within 1 point. Oh and there's also another Frost.
Formula's Pick: Kulture Fulture.
My Pick: Kulture Fulture.
Actual Pick: Kulture Fulture. This also disproves my first prediction. Fulture won 5 under this formula. let me take a moment to say winning two is very notable. Winning 6 in a row is perhaps rolling a d20, 20 times in a row. He undoubtedly benefited from weak competition several times (S14, S16, S17) but even then still wins 3! I gotta move on, this is killing my 4:31 AM brain.
SEASON 19
This time, Alex D. takes first place, while Brand, Prohaska, and Fulture run for second. However, Fulture went 100% on all his attempts. Is that going to be enough to win a 7th KotY, this time from 4th place? Also, is that a 4th Frost now? I can't tell, my brain is nearly fried.
Formula's Pick: Alex Dasistwirklichseinnachname.
My Pick: Alex Dasistwirklichseinnachname.
Actual Pick: Alex Dasistwirklichseinnachname. It's not! This time, volume wins over accuracy. Or perhaps this was a rare case of voter fatigue in the league. Either way, win for me.
SEASON 20
I decided I needed to sleep to get a fresh perspective on my findings. It is now 1:36 PM and I'm rested enough to realize that Crisco's season 20 run was one of the more impressive runs we've seen. If you ignore all the numbers, he made a 65 yard field goal. That alone is enough to justify winning KotY. In second place, Alex D. once again plays great but not great enough to justify a KotY nod.
Formula's Pick: Alfredo Crisco.
My Pick: Alfredo Crisco.
Actual Pick: Alfredo Crisco. The formula has accurately predicted the last 5 KotY winners now.
SEASON 21
This at first looks like another easy win for Crisco. Most field goals, with all the misses being from 40+, but this race is actually much closer than it appears. Crisco, along with Prohaska, missed 3 extra points. Meanwhile in 3rd place, Alex D.'s justification is the fact he missed two attempts, 1 XP and 1 40+ FG, compared to the 6 misses by Prohaska and Crisco.
Formula's Pick: Alfredo Crisco.
My Pick: Alex Dasistwirklichseinnachname.
Actual Pick: Alex Dasistwirklichseinnachname. The precedence up until this point was that volume trumped accuracy. This time the voters went against the grain and picked the most accurate kicker. This is only the second time a kicker with a score under 50 was selected KotY, the first of course being that crazy season 1.
SEASON 22
Finally, we reach last season's race. Alex D., Smalls, and Brand are the leaders of this race. All 3 kickers made 25 plus field goals, so the extra points this time around are going to provide that extra push. Brand doesn't have that, and Smalls missed 3, along with a missed FG from 30-39. Alex's only misses came at the end of the season.
Formula's Pick: Alex Dasistwirklichseinnachname. The second part of my second prediction was true.
My Pick: Alex Dasistwirklichseinnachname.
Actual Pick: Dougie Smalls. Excuse my bias, but I don't see how he won. 3 missed field goals and a miss from 30-39 are somehow better than missing 1 from 40-49 and 1 from 50+? I thought the KotY award was given to be best performing kicker, not the second best! Now if he went 100% in his attempts there'd be no contest, but that's not what happened. Perhaps the voters don't want to give Alex D. the leverage for a possible Hall of Fame push out of fear that their savior Kulture Fulture might get competition over who is the GOAT kicker. This is still a choice I am not happy with, but there's no retroactive voting, so I'm going to have to live with my bias. And if, by chance, Dougie is reading this, I have nothing against you, in fact I congratulate you for winning, I just think there's no reason you should've won at all.
So the formula accurately predicted the eventual Kicker of the Year 13.5/22 times, and ranked the eventual winner in the top two 20.5/22 times. I'd say this is a very watertight formula. The two instances it didn't was the season 6 half vote of Dean Jackson and season 21's Alex D., both of whom were voted for their accuracy.
While we're here, how's about we take a look at the season 23 kicker race?
SEASON 23
So it looks like I'm not in this race this time (Between you and me, I blame the offense for sputtering out around the 40 and not a more convenient yardage, perhaps within the 20-35 range). This race is concentrated on 3 young kickers, Banana, Smalls, and McDairmid. The first two have the volume numbers down, with only a half point margin between the two, while McDairmid, a large 12 points away, does have the claim to a perfect season so far. With 3 weeks left in the season, it'll be interesting to see this race finish.
Because I can't find a way to fit this into the article, here's the top 25 highest score averages. I initially had plans to do a much deeper analysis but with this already being my longest ever article and having to meet a post deadline because of double media, I had to scrap most of my ideas. This, however I think is very fascinating.
Alex Dasistwirklichseinnachname || K || Orange County Otters || 382 TPE
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