03-10-2023, 03:12 PM
(This post was last modified: 03-12-2023, 11:56 AM by Caleb_H. Edited 3 times in total.)
Well, this week was not a good one. Both for my guesses and the actual bets I made. There’s no sugar coating it, week 9 was not kind. I was unpleasantly surprised by how a few of the props turned out. Let’s get at it, starting with an updated chart and my thoughts on each.
![[Image: So89zoK.png]](https://i.imgur.com/So89zoK.png)
Live Laughlove (QB) - over/under 1.5 TD's: Well, I’m wearing egg on my face for this one. I thought it was a typo when I saw it. Thought it was a slam dunk. Well, Colorado had a tough time moving the ball and keeping it in their possession against the #1 team in the league. LLL got a late TD pass but was unable to do much else. Arizona has an unreal defense (least points against) so that will be something to note for future bets.
Pet Zuh (RB) - o/u 76.5 rushing yards: Zuh did a bunch of damage through the air this game, but also did well enough on the ground to hit the over. I felt pretty good about this one and Zuh showed up.
Austin Morley (WR) - o/u 85.5 receiving yards: This result surprised me probably the most. I wasn’t confident in the passing game that I figured it might be close and was banking on game script (which didn’t pan out). But only 2 catches for 33 yards? Never would have guessed that. Big L for me on this one.
President Camacho (WR) - o/u 5.5 receptions: I felt confident in this one, which is why I used it in my parlay. I did not expect 60 pass attempts by SJS but figured it would be a high amount, so seeing 3 players with 10+ targets was nice. Camacho is a stud and I’m glad I was right at least with this one.
Fred Edison (LB) - o/u 8.5 tackles: I actually went through the play by play to see where the tackles came from. As I said, I wasn’t surprised that he hit the over, but was shocked by how many more tackles he did get (16). Most of them were on running plays so that type of game script is something to look out for in future tackle prop bets.
Mike Makmur (K) - o/u 8.5 kicking points: I wasn’t wrong that this would be a high scoring game, but only Honolulu decided to score a bunch of points! I felt uneasy about the lack of field goals that Makmur has even attempted this season and it’s tough to bank on extra points getting him to 9 points, so once again game script was my deciding factor. And not surprisingly, I was wrong.
Franz-Udo Culman-Kaiser (OL) - o/u 5.5 pancakes: This was another one I wasn’t confident about and again, incredibly surprised by the result of Franz-Udo. Getting 10 pancakes against YKW is no small feat. With the team passing 40 times compared to just 17 rushing attempts, I’m guessing pancakes may come more often on passing plays. Hats off to F-U C-K. Hell of a game.
Well, time to put that week behind me. Let’s see what week 10 brings and how I think it will go.
![[Image: U0TVxUa.png]](https://i.imgur.com/U0TVxUa.png)
Preston Beatz (BAL) - o/u 299.5 Pass Yds: Beatz is currently #2 in the league in passing attempts and #1 in passing yards at 333 per game. Baltimore is going up against Berlin this week, who is last in the league in terms of pass defense, giving up 323 yards per game. With that combination, I have to go with the over on this one.
Danny Nedelko (AZ) - o/u 114.5 Rush Yds: This one is a prop that makes me wonder what they know that I don’t. Nedelko splits time with Blue Jr. and has only produced 2 games over 100 yards rushing, with those games getting 107 and 105. So he has not even hit this line even once this season. At the same time, they play Honolulu and they have a bottom half run defense. With Nedelko never hitting 114 in a game yet and still splitting time, I’ll take the under on this one.
Eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee phenssta (COL) - o/u 83.5 Rec Yds: phenssta is 3rd in the league at 88 yards per game, but drops to 13th in terms of receptions per game, which concerns me if they are unable to break a long one. Colorado goes against Sarasota this week, which boasts the 3rd best pass defense in the league and allow the 3rd least amount of points per game. I don’t want to bet on needing a long bomb in order to hit the over, so I’m taking the under on this one but don’t feel confident about it.
Dusty Wilson (YKW) - o/u 6.5 Pancakes: Dusty averages 5.5 pancakes a game now, so this one will have to be more opponent related to hit the over. The Crash have had mixed success with players getting 7 or more pancakes against them, so I might need to rely on my newfound thought process that passing leads to pancakes. With two top teams going at it, I could YKW needing to pass more than they’re used to. So with that, I’ll take the over.
Cruella de Ville (SJS) - o/u 7.5 Tackles: This is another one that puzzles me as de Ville is only averaging 4.4 tackles per game. Chicago is middle of the road for both pass attempts and rush attempts per game, so it is difficult to gauge how this game will play out. I think Sarasota’s defense will keep the game close and Chicago will end up passing more than they’d prefer, which will keep de Ville’s numbers down a bit. I’ll take the under on this one but I don’t feel great about it.
OCO Defense - o/u 1.5 Int: Orange County has 9 interceptions on the year, meaning 1 per game. Austin is another middle of the road team when it comes to passing and rushing attempts, so they will try to stay balanced which limits passing opportunities. Wendell Sailer has only thrown 4 picks on the year and leads the league in QB rating. So I think it will be tough for OCO to hit the over on this one. I’m taking the under.
Alfonso Dos Santos (NOLA) - o/u 44.5 FG Long: This one will be tough to predict as kicking is up to the merciful sim. Dos Santos has a long of 52 this year, which is a good sign. Being 3/3 from 50+ is nice. However, it does not look like New Orleans lets Dos Santos attempt many 40+ yarders as Alfonso has only attempted 5 so far this year. I’m confident in the ability, but not sure about the opportunity to hit from 45+. So for that reason alone, I’m taking the under.
This week seems like a weird mix of obvious and murky, sim-gonna-sim type bets. I'm taking a 3-leg parlay on this one with Beatz over, Nedelko under, and OCO under. I want to double down on Nedelko but I learned my lesson from last week so I'll just stick with the parlay. Good luck to everyone out there!
Live Laughlove (QB) - over/under 1.5 TD's: Well, I’m wearing egg on my face for this one. I thought it was a typo when I saw it. Thought it was a slam dunk. Well, Colorado had a tough time moving the ball and keeping it in their possession against the #1 team in the league. LLL got a late TD pass but was unable to do much else. Arizona has an unreal defense (least points against) so that will be something to note for future bets.
Pet Zuh (RB) - o/u 76.5 rushing yards: Zuh did a bunch of damage through the air this game, but also did well enough on the ground to hit the over. I felt pretty good about this one and Zuh showed up.
Austin Morley (WR) - o/u 85.5 receiving yards: This result surprised me probably the most. I wasn’t confident in the passing game that I figured it might be close and was banking on game script (which didn’t pan out). But only 2 catches for 33 yards? Never would have guessed that. Big L for me on this one.
President Camacho (WR) - o/u 5.5 receptions: I felt confident in this one, which is why I used it in my parlay. I did not expect 60 pass attempts by SJS but figured it would be a high amount, so seeing 3 players with 10+ targets was nice. Camacho is a stud and I’m glad I was right at least with this one.
Fred Edison (LB) - o/u 8.5 tackles: I actually went through the play by play to see where the tackles came from. As I said, I wasn’t surprised that he hit the over, but was shocked by how many more tackles he did get (16). Most of them were on running plays so that type of game script is something to look out for in future tackle prop bets.
Mike Makmur (K) - o/u 8.5 kicking points: I wasn’t wrong that this would be a high scoring game, but only Honolulu decided to score a bunch of points! I felt uneasy about the lack of field goals that Makmur has even attempted this season and it’s tough to bank on extra points getting him to 9 points, so once again game script was my deciding factor. And not surprisingly, I was wrong.
Franz-Udo Culman-Kaiser (OL) - o/u 5.5 pancakes: This was another one I wasn’t confident about and again, incredibly surprised by the result of Franz-Udo. Getting 10 pancakes against YKW is no small feat. With the team passing 40 times compared to just 17 rushing attempts, I’m guessing pancakes may come more often on passing plays. Hats off to F-U C-K. Hell of a game.
Well, time to put that week behind me. Let’s see what week 10 brings and how I think it will go.
Preston Beatz (BAL) - o/u 299.5 Pass Yds: Beatz is currently #2 in the league in passing attempts and #1 in passing yards at 333 per game. Baltimore is going up against Berlin this week, who is last in the league in terms of pass defense, giving up 323 yards per game. With that combination, I have to go with the over on this one.
Danny Nedelko (AZ) - o/u 114.5 Rush Yds: This one is a prop that makes me wonder what they know that I don’t. Nedelko splits time with Blue Jr. and has only produced 2 games over 100 yards rushing, with those games getting 107 and 105. So he has not even hit this line even once this season. At the same time, they play Honolulu and they have a bottom half run defense. With Nedelko never hitting 114 in a game yet and still splitting time, I’ll take the under on this one.
Eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee phenssta (COL) - o/u 83.5 Rec Yds: phenssta is 3rd in the league at 88 yards per game, but drops to 13th in terms of receptions per game, which concerns me if they are unable to break a long one. Colorado goes against Sarasota this week, which boasts the 3rd best pass defense in the league and allow the 3rd least amount of points per game. I don’t want to bet on needing a long bomb in order to hit the over, so I’m taking the under on this one but don’t feel confident about it.
Dusty Wilson (YKW) - o/u 6.5 Pancakes: Dusty averages 5.5 pancakes a game now, so this one will have to be more opponent related to hit the over. The Crash have had mixed success with players getting 7 or more pancakes against them, so I might need to rely on my newfound thought process that passing leads to pancakes. With two top teams going at it, I could YKW needing to pass more than they’re used to. So with that, I’ll take the over.
Cruella de Ville (SJS) - o/u 7.5 Tackles: This is another one that puzzles me as de Ville is only averaging 4.4 tackles per game. Chicago is middle of the road for both pass attempts and rush attempts per game, so it is difficult to gauge how this game will play out. I think Sarasota’s defense will keep the game close and Chicago will end up passing more than they’d prefer, which will keep de Ville’s numbers down a bit. I’ll take the under on this one but I don’t feel great about it.
OCO Defense - o/u 1.5 Int: Orange County has 9 interceptions on the year, meaning 1 per game. Austin is another middle of the road team when it comes to passing and rushing attempts, so they will try to stay balanced which limits passing opportunities. Wendell Sailer has only thrown 4 picks on the year and leads the league in QB rating. So I think it will be tough for OCO to hit the over on this one. I’m taking the under.
Alfonso Dos Santos (NOLA) - o/u 44.5 FG Long: This one will be tough to predict as kicking is up to the merciful sim. Dos Santos has a long of 52 this year, which is a good sign. Being 3/3 from 50+ is nice. However, it does not look like New Orleans lets Dos Santos attempt many 40+ yarders as Alfonso has only attempted 5 so far this year. I’m confident in the ability, but not sure about the opportunity to hit from 45+. So for that reason alone, I’m taking the under.
This week seems like a weird mix of obvious and murky, sim-gonna-sim type bets. I'm taking a 3-leg parlay on this one with Beatz over, Nedelko under, and OCO under. I want to double down on Nedelko but I learned my lesson from last week so I'll just stick with the parlay. Good luck to everyone out there!
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