03-15-2023, 11:13 AM
(This post was last modified: 03-15-2023, 04:57 PM by xenosthelegend. Edited 1 time in total.)
Well, Negs proved all of his doubters wrong and didn’t throw a single pick last week. So my parlay was busted even before I got the phenssta bet wrong, as well. So far, since I’ve been tracking my bets, I’m dead even at 13 right and 13 wrong. Good week followed by bad week, then good week and another bad week. Which means, week 12 should be a lock! So let’s take a look at the week 11 recap:
Creg Jerrith IV (CTC) – under 0.5 interceptions: As mentioned, lots of people bet the over on this one but Negs did not toss one to the other team. If it wasn’t for the user reputation, it would have made sense to go under. But CTC also showed up and pummeled Arizona in this one, so Jerrith wasn’t asked to pass as often as I had expected. Big L on this one.
Leandre Diarra (OCO) – over 6.5 carries + receptions: This was a fun prop to look at and I should have followed my gut. Diarra ended up with 6 carries alone, and added another 5 catches. It’s crazy usage for a fullback but just plain fun to see! OCO doesn’t score much but they put up yards like crazy so I’ll keep my eye out for any other fullback bets.
Eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee phenssta (COL) – under 87.5 Rec Yds: Colorado threw the ball 37 times for 306 yards, so it’s a bit surprising that phenssta didn’t hit the over this time. With a longest reception of only 16 yards, I’m not surprised that there wasn’t enough to get over the 88 yards, but still a bummer that it didn’t work out. Negs had already ruined my parlay so the outcome didn’t matter from a money perspective, but I still want to get these right, dang it!
David Doug (CHI) – over 1.5 punts inside 20: Berlin kept this game closer than most expected, so Doug ended up punting 6 times and had 3! punts inside the 20. I’ve never seen this type of bet before so I had no idea what to expect. While I still don’t, at least now I have some idea of how to approach it next time.
Lalu Muhammad Zohri (CHI) – under 0.5 sacks allowed: This will always seem like a coinflip prop since sacks are a bit wonky in the sim. St. Christmas was sacked 5 times according to the stat sheet, but only 2 players allowed one sack each. So I’ll have to attempt game script logic to this type of bet going forward, along with needing some luck!
Spottie O’Dopaliscious (AZ) – under 1.5 pass deflections: Again, Negs didn’t pass as much as I had thought he would and CTC did much better against AZ than expected. Spottie did get 1 PD, so at least was involved in some disruption, but not enough to hit the over. Again, this one seems pretty coin-flippy to me based on the sim being the sim.
Now onto the week 12 predictions!
Kaguya Shinomiya (OCO) – o/u 35.5 rushing yds: Orange County is the premiere rushing team in the league. And it’s not close. So far this year, Kaguya has 97 rushing attempts for 577 yards for an average of 5.9 yards per carry. Averaging 52+ rushing yards a game, it seems like OCO has no issues with their QB toting the rock. And this week they face off against San Jose, which is allowing 102 yards rushing per game. I think there’s enough meat on the bone that Kaguya will hit the over.
Abedayo Akinfenwa (YKW) – o/u 99.5 rushing yds: Yellowknife has one of the better rushing offenses in the league, coming in at #4 with 119.5 rush yards per game. Last time Abedayo went against Chicago, he went nuts with 135 yards on only 18 carries. A long of only 22 yards meant he wasn’t given a boost by an outlier, either. At home, I think Yellowknife puts last week behind them and Adebayo shines this week, hitting the over.
Ceti Pyxis (COL) – o/u 29.5 receiving yds: Ceti is used quite a bit in the passing game, averaging 3.5 catches and 39.7 receiving yards per game. Berlin is the worst pass defense in the league, giving up an average of 318.4 yards receiving per game. Running backs have been utilized in the passing game quite often against them, so this one feels like it should be an easy over.
Leek Mai-Heinous (HON) – o/u 82.5 receiving yds: I’m a bit biased here, as I drafted Leek on my fantasy team since I just absolutely love the name. Makes me laugh, ever time. And Leek is no slouch to putting up receiving stats! I think last week was an outlier and Hon will continue to do what they do best, which is put up points by necessity since their defense is a sieve. New Orleans does have one of the best pass defenses in the league, but that won’t stop Honolulu from throwing it all over the field. I’m taking the over on this one (although I’m not confident at all).
King Zeus (SAR) – o/u 1.5 pass deflections: King has been a beast this year, averaging over 2 pass deflections a game. So I’m not worried about King being able to get another 2 this game, but will there be enough opportunities? New York prefers to run the ball. In the last 6 games, when attempting less than 30 passes, no player has gotten 2 pass deflections against them. So if Sarasota can get New York to pass the ball at least 30 times, Zeus should have ample opportunity to hit the over. I think the sim is gonna sim on this one, and while New York should want to attempt to have a higher volume passing offense, they’ll continue to try to run and so Zeus won’t get enough opportunities to get 2. I’m taking the under.
Levy Tate (AUS) – o/u 2.5 punts inside 20: Tate is 2nd in the league in punt attempts. Obviously, more punt attempts, the higher likelihood that the over hits. Tate is above average in punts inside the 20 at just under 2 a game. Arizona boasts the leagues best defense, so it might be tough for Austin to move the ball, which is concerning if he doesn’t get close enough to use his mediocre leg to get it there. Tate has not had more than 2 inside the 20 in the last 4 games. I’m taking the under on this one.
Swantavious Payne (CTC) – o/u 7.5 pancakes: Payne is averaging over 8 pancakes per game, which is phenomenal. I am still under the impression that more passing leads to more pancakes, but he seems to do well no matter the game script. Baltimore has a much better pass defense than rush defense, and Cape Town has no issues giving the ball to Jarvis to run it down opponents’ throats, so I see Cape Town going more run heavy this game. I think Payne gets close, but not quite enough to hit the over, so I’m taking the under on this one.
I started feeling really generous at first, going 4 straight over bets, but the final 3 just seem a bit high for my liking. I feel good about Shinomiya, Akinfenwa, and Pyxis all hitting the over, so I’m using those 3 in my parlay. I’m going to add some additional juice to Pyxis as I’m probably most confident in that one. Well good luck everyone, I hope your bets hit this week and we’ll be back for more!
Creg Jerrith IV (CTC) – under 0.5 interceptions: As mentioned, lots of people bet the over on this one but Negs did not toss one to the other team. If it wasn’t for the user reputation, it would have made sense to go under. But CTC also showed up and pummeled Arizona in this one, so Jerrith wasn’t asked to pass as often as I had expected. Big L on this one.
Leandre Diarra (OCO) – over 6.5 carries + receptions: This was a fun prop to look at and I should have followed my gut. Diarra ended up with 6 carries alone, and added another 5 catches. It’s crazy usage for a fullback but just plain fun to see! OCO doesn’t score much but they put up yards like crazy so I’ll keep my eye out for any other fullback bets.
Eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee phenssta (COL) – under 87.5 Rec Yds: Colorado threw the ball 37 times for 306 yards, so it’s a bit surprising that phenssta didn’t hit the over this time. With a longest reception of only 16 yards, I’m not surprised that there wasn’t enough to get over the 88 yards, but still a bummer that it didn’t work out. Negs had already ruined my parlay so the outcome didn’t matter from a money perspective, but I still want to get these right, dang it!
David Doug (CHI) – over 1.5 punts inside 20: Berlin kept this game closer than most expected, so Doug ended up punting 6 times and had 3! punts inside the 20. I’ve never seen this type of bet before so I had no idea what to expect. While I still don’t, at least now I have some idea of how to approach it next time.
Lalu Muhammad Zohri (CHI) – under 0.5 sacks allowed: This will always seem like a coinflip prop since sacks are a bit wonky in the sim. St. Christmas was sacked 5 times according to the stat sheet, but only 2 players allowed one sack each. So I’ll have to attempt game script logic to this type of bet going forward, along with needing some luck!
Spottie O’Dopaliscious (AZ) – under 1.5 pass deflections: Again, Negs didn’t pass as much as I had thought he would and CTC did much better against AZ than expected. Spottie did get 1 PD, so at least was involved in some disruption, but not enough to hit the over. Again, this one seems pretty coin-flippy to me based on the sim being the sim.
Now onto the week 12 predictions!
Kaguya Shinomiya (OCO) – o/u 35.5 rushing yds: Orange County is the premiere rushing team in the league. And it’s not close. So far this year, Kaguya has 97 rushing attempts for 577 yards for an average of 5.9 yards per carry. Averaging 52+ rushing yards a game, it seems like OCO has no issues with their QB toting the rock. And this week they face off against San Jose, which is allowing 102 yards rushing per game. I think there’s enough meat on the bone that Kaguya will hit the over.
Abedayo Akinfenwa (YKW) – o/u 99.5 rushing yds: Yellowknife has one of the better rushing offenses in the league, coming in at #4 with 119.5 rush yards per game. Last time Abedayo went against Chicago, he went nuts with 135 yards on only 18 carries. A long of only 22 yards meant he wasn’t given a boost by an outlier, either. At home, I think Yellowknife puts last week behind them and Adebayo shines this week, hitting the over.
Ceti Pyxis (COL) – o/u 29.5 receiving yds: Ceti is used quite a bit in the passing game, averaging 3.5 catches and 39.7 receiving yards per game. Berlin is the worst pass defense in the league, giving up an average of 318.4 yards receiving per game. Running backs have been utilized in the passing game quite often against them, so this one feels like it should be an easy over.
Leek Mai-Heinous (HON) – o/u 82.5 receiving yds: I’m a bit biased here, as I drafted Leek on my fantasy team since I just absolutely love the name. Makes me laugh, ever time. And Leek is no slouch to putting up receiving stats! I think last week was an outlier and Hon will continue to do what they do best, which is put up points by necessity since their defense is a sieve. New Orleans does have one of the best pass defenses in the league, but that won’t stop Honolulu from throwing it all over the field. I’m taking the over on this one (although I’m not confident at all).
King Zeus (SAR) – o/u 1.5 pass deflections: King has been a beast this year, averaging over 2 pass deflections a game. So I’m not worried about King being able to get another 2 this game, but will there be enough opportunities? New York prefers to run the ball. In the last 6 games, when attempting less than 30 passes, no player has gotten 2 pass deflections against them. So if Sarasota can get New York to pass the ball at least 30 times, Zeus should have ample opportunity to hit the over. I think the sim is gonna sim on this one, and while New York should want to attempt to have a higher volume passing offense, they’ll continue to try to run and so Zeus won’t get enough opportunities to get 2. I’m taking the under.
Levy Tate (AUS) – o/u 2.5 punts inside 20: Tate is 2nd in the league in punt attempts. Obviously, more punt attempts, the higher likelihood that the over hits. Tate is above average in punts inside the 20 at just under 2 a game. Arizona boasts the leagues best defense, so it might be tough for Austin to move the ball, which is concerning if he doesn’t get close enough to use his mediocre leg to get it there. Tate has not had more than 2 inside the 20 in the last 4 games. I’m taking the under on this one.
Swantavious Payne (CTC) – o/u 7.5 pancakes: Payne is averaging over 8 pancakes per game, which is phenomenal. I am still under the impression that more passing leads to more pancakes, but he seems to do well no matter the game script. Baltimore has a much better pass defense than rush defense, and Cape Town has no issues giving the ball to Jarvis to run it down opponents’ throats, so I see Cape Town going more run heavy this game. I think Payne gets close, but not quite enough to hit the over, so I’m taking the under on this one.
I started feeling really generous at first, going 4 straight over bets, but the final 3 just seem a bit high for my liking. I feel good about Shinomiya, Akinfenwa, and Pyxis all hitting the over, so I’m using those 3 in my parlay. I’m going to add some additional juice to Pyxis as I’m probably most confident in that one. Well good luck everyone, I hope your bets hit this week and we’ll be back for more!
"...and has what is honestly the most bizarre attachment to ISFL fantasy football and user bets..." - aeonsjenni