04-27-2023, 11:46 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-04-2023, 09:11 AM by H0PPY75. Edited 2 times in total.)
It seems like the weeks are flying by. Just two days ago felt like week 6. And what a bad week 6 it was for my prop bets. I ended up putting $5M on the line and walked away with $3.8M. At least I took the opportunity to do some written analysis and recoup the loss. It worked so well I am going to keep it up, hopefully one of these days the stars will align, and I’ll strike it rich. I have the thank @CROney3 for the inspiration but it now looks like there are four of us writing these articles; myself, Croney, @Ultimatedestroye and @Sebster. I can’t promise to keep track of everyone else’s bets but for my own benefit I can at least keep track of mine.
Week 6 Review
Willier Miller (SAR) Passing Yards (255.5) – Based on the research I had done I went with the OVER. Willier wasn’t putting up the best of numbers throughout the season so far and faced the defensive goliath of Berlin. At the end of the game Miller had only thrown for 170 total yards. I ended up putting $1M down and including this in my parlay. +900k
Howard Coward (AUS) Rushing Yards (65.5) – You ask anyone who bet on this one this week and this was a lock for the OVER. A lower line versus a potentially bottom of the barrel defensive team. Howard has recently started receiving the most rushing attempts for AUS and this game was no different. Except for the fact that Howard blew it. Totaling only 40 yards on 9 attempts. Probably the biggest upset of the night for everyone. The sim knows something the rest of us don’t, I guess. I had put $1M on this and included it in my parlay. RIP.
Dick Grayson (NOLA) Receiving Yards (72.5) – Looking at everyone else’s articles on this made this line look like more of a toss up than I thought it was. I had gone with the under noting the absolute terrible state of NOLA’s offense. I should have put more weight in the fact that Grayson was operating as WR#2 and that NOLA can only pass the ball. Granted looking at Grayson’s stat line shows that his total yards of 84 was heavily padded by one 58 yard long reception. With only a total of 4 receptions I still feel this was a fluke and the under was the correct bet. Down another $1M, but this one wasn’t in the parlay.
NCADV RAINN (COL) Receptions (4.5) – RAINN only needed 5 receptions for this one to hit and the Yetis are definitely a pass heavy team I was convinced the OVER was a great line, though the result was much closer than I expected, RAINN came out of the game with 6 total receptions. Thanks RAINN we appreciate it. +900k and was the third leg of my parlay.
John Stark (OCO) Tackles (6.5) – I went into the defensive props with the disclaimer that I barely know what a single defensive stat line looks like. I had the OVER on this one due to Stark’s averages and the relatively weaker SJS he was up against. He ended up getting only getting 3, not even getting close to the line. Good thing I didn’t put any money on this one.
Bengal Tigerheart (BAL) Pancakes (6.5) – Tigerheart is a monster who has been averaging over 10 pancakes a game and I recommended the over because of it. Damn, I should have put money on this one. Bengal landed 8 pancakes bringing down his average but beating the line. Good on him and everyone who put money on this. Turns out this was the lock and not Mr. Coward.
James Jayne Jay-Jaymison (AZ) Punts inside the 20 (2.5) – I threw in the towel on this one and didn’t even posture a guess. JJJJ had been making at least 3 of the punts inside the 20 each game, aside from one. Well now it is two. JJJJ only managed one punt inside the 20. I wasn’t able to watch the game but I am guessing AZ didn’t have good enough field position on 4th down for him to land the ball under the 20. Kick props have way more that goes into it than other positions it seems. I may continue to hold off on these.
Week 6 Overall
Wagered: $5,000,000
Payout: $3,800,000
Ow, oof, and ouchie.
Week 7 Analysis
OCO/HON Total Rushing Yards (249.5) UNDER – Over the past 6 games HON has had total rushing yards of 107, 107, 170, 130, 72, and 161. Additionally, HON has allowed 96, 46, 129, 116, 141, and 65 rushing yards. Game totals of 203, 153, 259, 203, and 226 rushing yards. Meanwhile OCO’s rushing totals have been 202, 94, 111, 72, 136, and 109 yards and allowing 87, 41, 161, 156, 118, and 59 total rushing yards. The total rushing yards for all OCO games are 289, 135, 272, 228, 254, and 168. Out of 12 games played by both these teams only 4 games have cracked this line. Granted that is a silly way to look at it. When teams who have focused on running the ball against OCO they have shown to give up a good amount of yards and the same goes for HON. HON seems to switch back and forth between a rush focused offense and a pass focused offense, the most recent game had Bell Delphine Jr. with 39 rush attempts, when in other games the average was about 15. OCO appears to be running the same balanced scheme in all their games. So initially thought it comes down to is HON going to play a more pass focused or run focused offense against OCO? The Otters only loss this season was to Austin, who ran for 156 yards against OCO, so there is a good chance HON may opt for their more run based game. However, if we go back to the numbers and look at all the combinations of total rushing yards allowed there are 11 combos out of 36 possible that actually crack the 249.5 line. For that reason I think both teams defense might be too strong despite their consistent rushing offense to crack 250 total rushing yards. Therefore we are going under.
Deshawn Penne (AUS) Receptions (4.5) UNDER – The numbers show Penne completing a total of 3, 2, 5, 3, 5, and 3 receptions in the last 6 games. Additionally, AUS is absolutely filled to the brim with receiving targets with at least 5 in any given game. This week AUS is playing against San Jose who been a mixed bag of pass defense. Teams that want to pass will be able to get them off but you have to throw a lot of them. AUS may focus on their run game as they have had the most success with that this season. So due to the matchup, Penne’s mediocre reception average and the depth of receivers for AUS I am leaning under on this one as well.
Mandrews McHollywood (NYS) Receiving Yards (74.5) OVER – Mandrews has totaled 82, 24, 137, 62, 56, and 40 receiving yards during the past 6 games. Game 3 was against OCO where he had a long of 60 yards, that skewed his numbers way up. This week NYS are playing NOLA who is a wet noodle up and down the field. I think this is a hard set line. If it was at 69.5 I would consider this an easy over, the 5 point shift higher makes me a little bit more weary but I am still going over on this one. Despite the Depth McHollywood is still getting the biggest share of targets, we are just going to need him to catch the ball when it comes his way.
BAL Total Offense (386.5) OVER – For a team that is 2-4 BAL has put up big numbers. Beatz at QB alone has broken this over. BAL’s offense has totaled 472, 301, 520, 362, 310, and 430 yards over the last 6 games. With a floor of about 300 yards and an average of 399 yards per game the potential is there. Let’s take a look at BAL’s opponent this week SAR. SAR has allowed total yards of 345, 379, 310, 378, 436, and 395 over the last 6 games. Of SAR’s previous opponents I would BAL in the came class as Chicago and COL who totaled 379 and 436 yards against SAR. I think 386.5 is quite a high number but if there was a team to do it I would wager it would be BAL. So I will, BAL OVER.
Kumquat Archipelago (YKW) Scrimmage Yards (89.5) UNDER – Archipelago is one of the YKW’s dynamic running back duo, who both double as receivers. Over the past 6 games Archipelago has totaled 130, 65, 46, 111, 75, and 44. So clearly he is generally not breaking 80 total yards but has made some standout appearances. His two strong appearances came against CHI and COL both of which who are not defense heavy teams. This week YKW are playing AZ, who though has been faltering this season they are still the raining s40 Ultimus champs. I don’t see Archipelago having a standout game against one of the proposed strongest teams in the league. Slamming the under on this one. Hoping he doesn’t get one break away pass reception.
Rumble Ronson (CHI) Tackles (6.5) UNDER – Ronson has totaled 9, 3, 11, 6, 8 and 5 tackles over the last six games, with an exact average of 7. Ronson’s largest games came from run heavy teams. This week CHI is playing against Colorado Yeti who are notoriously more a passing team . Therefore, I have the under on Ronson here. This is as deep as any defense analysis is going to get unfortunately.
CTC Passes Defended (6.5) OVER – Based on the last six games PDs appear to be a feast or famine state line, either CTC racked up 8+ or 2. This week CTC is playing against Berlin whose offense is negligible. With a weak offense in front of them CTC’s should have a solid chance at getting these PDs. We are going OVER!
This week I am going to trust myself and put $1M down on each of these bets and do a parlay as well. Going forward I probably won’t be betting on every line unless I am uber confident, but wanted to give it a shot. Below is a quick summary of my bets. Bets denoted with a PP are a Parlay Pick.
OCO HON Total Rushing Yards (249.5) UNDER - $1M
Deshawn Penne (AUS) Receptions (4.5) UNDER - $1M PP
Mandrews McHollywood (NYS) Receiving Yards (74.5) OVER - $1M
BAL Total Offense (386.5) OVER - $1M
Kumquat Archipelago (YKW) Scrimmage Yards (89.5) UNDER - $1M PP
Rumble Ronson (CHI) Tackles (6.5) UNDER - $1M PP
CTC Passes Defended (6.5) OVER - $1M
Total Wagered: $8,000,000
Hopefully this week goes better than the last and I can walk away with a big W. Thanks for reading, see you next time at week 8.
Season 41 Totals
Total Wagered: $15,000,000 ($8,000,000 pending w7)
Total Profit: -$1,300,000
Week 6 Review
Willier Miller (SAR) Passing Yards (255.5) – Based on the research I had done I went with the OVER. Willier wasn’t putting up the best of numbers throughout the season so far and faced the defensive goliath of Berlin. At the end of the game Miller had only thrown for 170 total yards. I ended up putting $1M down and including this in my parlay. +900k
Howard Coward (AUS) Rushing Yards (65.5) – You ask anyone who bet on this one this week and this was a lock for the OVER. A lower line versus a potentially bottom of the barrel defensive team. Howard has recently started receiving the most rushing attempts for AUS and this game was no different. Except for the fact that Howard blew it. Totaling only 40 yards on 9 attempts. Probably the biggest upset of the night for everyone. The sim knows something the rest of us don’t, I guess. I had put $1M on this and included it in my parlay. RIP.
Dick Grayson (NOLA) Receiving Yards (72.5) – Looking at everyone else’s articles on this made this line look like more of a toss up than I thought it was. I had gone with the under noting the absolute terrible state of NOLA’s offense. I should have put more weight in the fact that Grayson was operating as WR#2 and that NOLA can only pass the ball. Granted looking at Grayson’s stat line shows that his total yards of 84 was heavily padded by one 58 yard long reception. With only a total of 4 receptions I still feel this was a fluke and the under was the correct bet. Down another $1M, but this one wasn’t in the parlay.
NCADV RAINN (COL) Receptions (4.5) – RAINN only needed 5 receptions for this one to hit and the Yetis are definitely a pass heavy team I was convinced the OVER was a great line, though the result was much closer than I expected, RAINN came out of the game with 6 total receptions. Thanks RAINN we appreciate it. +900k and was the third leg of my parlay.
John Stark (OCO) Tackles (6.5) – I went into the defensive props with the disclaimer that I barely know what a single defensive stat line looks like. I had the OVER on this one due to Stark’s averages and the relatively weaker SJS he was up against. He ended up getting only getting 3, not even getting close to the line. Good thing I didn’t put any money on this one.
Bengal Tigerheart (BAL) Pancakes (6.5) – Tigerheart is a monster who has been averaging over 10 pancakes a game and I recommended the over because of it. Damn, I should have put money on this one. Bengal landed 8 pancakes bringing down his average but beating the line. Good on him and everyone who put money on this. Turns out this was the lock and not Mr. Coward.
James Jayne Jay-Jaymison (AZ) Punts inside the 20 (2.5) – I threw in the towel on this one and didn’t even posture a guess. JJJJ had been making at least 3 of the punts inside the 20 each game, aside from one. Well now it is two. JJJJ only managed one punt inside the 20. I wasn’t able to watch the game but I am guessing AZ didn’t have good enough field position on 4th down for him to land the ball under the 20. Kick props have way more that goes into it than other positions it seems. I may continue to hold off on these.
Week 6 Overall
Wagered: $5,000,000
Payout: $3,800,000
Ow, oof, and ouchie.
Week 7 Analysis
OCO/HON Total Rushing Yards (249.5) UNDER – Over the past 6 games HON has had total rushing yards of 107, 107, 170, 130, 72, and 161. Additionally, HON has allowed 96, 46, 129, 116, 141, and 65 rushing yards. Game totals of 203, 153, 259, 203, and 226 rushing yards. Meanwhile OCO’s rushing totals have been 202, 94, 111, 72, 136, and 109 yards and allowing 87, 41, 161, 156, 118, and 59 total rushing yards. The total rushing yards for all OCO games are 289, 135, 272, 228, 254, and 168. Out of 12 games played by both these teams only 4 games have cracked this line. Granted that is a silly way to look at it. When teams who have focused on running the ball against OCO they have shown to give up a good amount of yards and the same goes for HON. HON seems to switch back and forth between a rush focused offense and a pass focused offense, the most recent game had Bell Delphine Jr. with 39 rush attempts, when in other games the average was about 15. OCO appears to be running the same balanced scheme in all their games. So initially thought it comes down to is HON going to play a more pass focused or run focused offense against OCO? The Otters only loss this season was to Austin, who ran for 156 yards against OCO, so there is a good chance HON may opt for their more run based game. However, if we go back to the numbers and look at all the combinations of total rushing yards allowed there are 11 combos out of 36 possible that actually crack the 249.5 line. For that reason I think both teams defense might be too strong despite their consistent rushing offense to crack 250 total rushing yards. Therefore we are going under.
Deshawn Penne (AUS) Receptions (4.5) UNDER – The numbers show Penne completing a total of 3, 2, 5, 3, 5, and 3 receptions in the last 6 games. Additionally, AUS is absolutely filled to the brim with receiving targets with at least 5 in any given game. This week AUS is playing against San Jose who been a mixed bag of pass defense. Teams that want to pass will be able to get them off but you have to throw a lot of them. AUS may focus on their run game as they have had the most success with that this season. So due to the matchup, Penne’s mediocre reception average and the depth of receivers for AUS I am leaning under on this one as well.
Mandrews McHollywood (NYS) Receiving Yards (74.5) OVER – Mandrews has totaled 82, 24, 137, 62, 56, and 40 receiving yards during the past 6 games. Game 3 was against OCO where he had a long of 60 yards, that skewed his numbers way up. This week NYS are playing NOLA who is a wet noodle up and down the field. I think this is a hard set line. If it was at 69.5 I would consider this an easy over, the 5 point shift higher makes me a little bit more weary but I am still going over on this one. Despite the Depth McHollywood is still getting the biggest share of targets, we are just going to need him to catch the ball when it comes his way.
BAL Total Offense (386.5) OVER – For a team that is 2-4 BAL has put up big numbers. Beatz at QB alone has broken this over. BAL’s offense has totaled 472, 301, 520, 362, 310, and 430 yards over the last 6 games. With a floor of about 300 yards and an average of 399 yards per game the potential is there. Let’s take a look at BAL’s opponent this week SAR. SAR has allowed total yards of 345, 379, 310, 378, 436, and 395 over the last 6 games. Of SAR’s previous opponents I would BAL in the came class as Chicago and COL who totaled 379 and 436 yards against SAR. I think 386.5 is quite a high number but if there was a team to do it I would wager it would be BAL. So I will, BAL OVER.
Kumquat Archipelago (YKW) Scrimmage Yards (89.5) UNDER – Archipelago is one of the YKW’s dynamic running back duo, who both double as receivers. Over the past 6 games Archipelago has totaled 130, 65, 46, 111, 75, and 44. So clearly he is generally not breaking 80 total yards but has made some standout appearances. His two strong appearances came against CHI and COL both of which who are not defense heavy teams. This week YKW are playing AZ, who though has been faltering this season they are still the raining s40 Ultimus champs. I don’t see Archipelago having a standout game against one of the proposed strongest teams in the league. Slamming the under on this one. Hoping he doesn’t get one break away pass reception.
Rumble Ronson (CHI) Tackles (6.5) UNDER – Ronson has totaled 9, 3, 11, 6, 8 and 5 tackles over the last six games, with an exact average of 7. Ronson’s largest games came from run heavy teams. This week CHI is playing against Colorado Yeti who are notoriously more a passing team . Therefore, I have the under on Ronson here. This is as deep as any defense analysis is going to get unfortunately.
CTC Passes Defended (6.5) OVER – Based on the last six games PDs appear to be a feast or famine state line, either CTC racked up 8+ or 2. This week CTC is playing against Berlin whose offense is negligible. With a weak offense in front of them CTC’s should have a solid chance at getting these PDs. We are going OVER!
This week I am going to trust myself and put $1M down on each of these bets and do a parlay as well. Going forward I probably won’t be betting on every line unless I am uber confident, but wanted to give it a shot. Below is a quick summary of my bets. Bets denoted with a PP are a Parlay Pick.
OCO HON Total Rushing Yards (249.5) UNDER - $1M
Deshawn Penne (AUS) Receptions (4.5) UNDER - $1M PP
Mandrews McHollywood (NYS) Receiving Yards (74.5) OVER - $1M
BAL Total Offense (386.5) OVER - $1M
Kumquat Archipelago (YKW) Scrimmage Yards (89.5) UNDER - $1M PP
Rumble Ronson (CHI) Tackles (6.5) UNDER - $1M PP
CTC Passes Defended (6.5) OVER - $1M
Total Wagered: $8,000,000
Hopefully this week goes better than the last and I can walk away with a big W. Thanks for reading, see you next time at week 8.
Season 41 Totals
Total Wagered: $15,000,000 ($8,000,000 pending w7)
Total Profit: -$1,300,000