Robbed: The robbery of the NSFL season was the Philadelphia Liberty falling just short of a playoff appearance. The Liberty suffered some brutally close losses down the stretch, losing three of their final six games by a combined 15 points. After pulling off an upset in a must win game against the league best Orange County Otters, the Liberty found out they would miss the playoffs as the Baltimore Hawks defeated the Arizona Outlaws earlier that day. The Hawks and Liberty finished the season with the same point total, but the Hawks actually allowed one more point, leaving the Liberty with the better point differential for the season. The two teams were closely matched throughout the season with each team picking up a win at home. The real robbery is not that one of these two teams made the playoffs over the other, but that one might have missed the playoffs because of their conference. The Arizona Outlaws, the ASFC’s runner-up, actually finished with a point differential of just +5 as compared to Philadelphia’s +66. The Outlaws also went 4-4 against their NSFC schedule while the Liberty went 5-3 against their ASFC schedule, suggesting that if the conferences were reversed, the Liberty would be sitting comfortably in the playoffs while the Outlaws would be out.
Playoff Predictions: The first round of the Season Six NSFL playoffs start tonight as the Hawks face off against the Wraiths and the Outlaws take on the Otters. I’ll start with what I believe is the easier to predict of the two games in Arizona versus Orange County. The Otters will be playing on their home turf and that presents a huge advantage as they were undefeated at home this season. Orange County was the convincingly superior team during the two matchups between during the regular season with a dominating 44-14 win at home and 31-24 come-from-behind victory on the road. It seems as though all signs point toward the Otters having an opportunity to defend their Ultimus title this year. The second of the two opening round matchups may be quite a bit closer. The Baltimore Hawks enter these playoffs on fire after winning 7 of their last 9. The Wraiths, on the other hand, stumbled during the heart of their schedule before righting the ship with two tune-up games against Las Vegas and Colorado. The two teams were separated by a razor thin margin in their two matchups this season with each team winning on their home turf. It is worth noting, however, that the Hawks lost by just two points when they took on the Wraiths in Yellowknife in week one. I’ll stick with my pre-season predictions here and say the Hawks pull of the upset and move on to the championship game. In the predicted matchup between the Hawks and Otters, I have to say that it’s hard to imagine anything but an Orange County victory. They took both of the regular season meetings and the Hawks will simply find themselves outclassed in this one as the Otters seal back-to-back Ultimus Trophies.
Root for the Underdog: I touched on this in my playoff predictions write-up, but I’ll reiterate that I see the Baltimore Hawks having a real chance at toppling the favored Yellowknife Wraiths in the NSFC Championship round. The Wraiths look to be the superior team, but it’s much closer than most are making it out to be. The Hawks hit a rough patch at the start of their season in which they went 1-4. During that same stretch they managed to play the Wraiths to a one score game on the road. As the Hawks hit their stride in the second half of their schedule they were able to take a home game against Yellowknife by a score of 27-16. The Wraiths will have little hope of moving the ball on the ground against Baltimore’s NSFL best rush defense. The key to this matchup for the Hawks will be slowing down Eric Kennedy. During the Hawks week 8 victory they followed a similar game plan and, while Kennedy did damage, they kept the Wraiths out of the end zone until the fourth quarter. If the Hawks can create some chaos in the passing game their defense may be able to get the ball back into the hands of their high-powered offense and steal a win.
Matchup Nightmares: The matchup nightmare of the Season Six NSFL playoffs will be Jordan Yates against the entire Outlaws defense. Yates might just be deserving of the MVP award after posting an absurd 1800 scrimmage yards and 21 touchdowns this year. Yates scored four touchdowns in the two regular season games between the two teams and will look to continue his offensive outbursts into the playoffs. The Outlaws, on the other hand, made the playoffs in spite of their defense rather than because of it. They finished second to last in the NSFL in all of: scoring defense, yards allowed, rushing defense, and passing defense. Struggling against both the rush and the pass is a nightmare formula when going up against Yates, the league’s most dynamic player. The Outlaws will have to rely on their entire defense to contain Yates, but in the end they might just lack the talent to do so. They simply don’t have linebackers who can run stride-for-stride with Yates or safeties who can handle his physicality. If they sell out to stop him in the receiving game they’ll be leaving Bradley Westfield and Robert Phelps uncovered. To put things simply, there are just too many weapons on the Orange County offense for the Outlaws to focus on containing Yates and it seems likely that this will be a waking nightmare for the Arizona defense.
Playoff Predictions: The first round of the Season Six NSFL playoffs start tonight as the Hawks face off against the Wraiths and the Outlaws take on the Otters. I’ll start with what I believe is the easier to predict of the two games in Arizona versus Orange County. The Otters will be playing on their home turf and that presents a huge advantage as they were undefeated at home this season. Orange County was the convincingly superior team during the two matchups between during the regular season with a dominating 44-14 win at home and 31-24 come-from-behind victory on the road. It seems as though all signs point toward the Otters having an opportunity to defend their Ultimus title this year. The second of the two opening round matchups may be quite a bit closer. The Baltimore Hawks enter these playoffs on fire after winning 7 of their last 9. The Wraiths, on the other hand, stumbled during the heart of their schedule before righting the ship with two tune-up games against Las Vegas and Colorado. The two teams were separated by a razor thin margin in their two matchups this season with each team winning on their home turf. It is worth noting, however, that the Hawks lost by just two points when they took on the Wraiths in Yellowknife in week one. I’ll stick with my pre-season predictions here and say the Hawks pull of the upset and move on to the championship game. In the predicted matchup between the Hawks and Otters, I have to say that it’s hard to imagine anything but an Orange County victory. They took both of the regular season meetings and the Hawks will simply find themselves outclassed in this one as the Otters seal back-to-back Ultimus Trophies.
Root for the Underdog: I touched on this in my playoff predictions write-up, but I’ll reiterate that I see the Baltimore Hawks having a real chance at toppling the favored Yellowknife Wraiths in the NSFC Championship round. The Wraiths look to be the superior team, but it’s much closer than most are making it out to be. The Hawks hit a rough patch at the start of their season in which they went 1-4. During that same stretch they managed to play the Wraiths to a one score game on the road. As the Hawks hit their stride in the second half of their schedule they were able to take a home game against Yellowknife by a score of 27-16. The Wraiths will have little hope of moving the ball on the ground against Baltimore’s NSFL best rush defense. The key to this matchup for the Hawks will be slowing down Eric Kennedy. During the Hawks week 8 victory they followed a similar game plan and, while Kennedy did damage, they kept the Wraiths out of the end zone until the fourth quarter. If the Hawks can create some chaos in the passing game their defense may be able to get the ball back into the hands of their high-powered offense and steal a win.
Matchup Nightmares: The matchup nightmare of the Season Six NSFL playoffs will be Jordan Yates against the entire Outlaws defense. Yates might just be deserving of the MVP award after posting an absurd 1800 scrimmage yards and 21 touchdowns this year. Yates scored four touchdowns in the two regular season games between the two teams and will look to continue his offensive outbursts into the playoffs. The Outlaws, on the other hand, made the playoffs in spite of their defense rather than because of it. They finished second to last in the NSFL in all of: scoring defense, yards allowed, rushing defense, and passing defense. Struggling against both the rush and the pass is a nightmare formula when going up against Yates, the league’s most dynamic player. The Outlaws will have to rely on their entire defense to contain Yates, but in the end they might just lack the talent to do so. They simply don’t have linebackers who can run stride-for-stride with Yates or safeties who can handle his physicality. If they sell out to stop him in the receiving game they’ll be leaving Bradley Westfield and Robert Phelps uncovered. To put things simply, there are just too many weapons on the Orange County offense for the Outlaws to focus on containing Yates and it seems likely that this will be a waking nightmare for the Arizona defense.