*NSFL Week 1 Watchability Rankings

Modern_Duke · (This post was last modified: 10-13-2019, 07:03 PM by Modern_Duke.)

I had the idea to do this halfway through last season but it kind of morphed into something else and then just never happened. Basically, this is just a ranking of the week's games by how exciting they should be to watch. Based on the following:

Team Factor: Team 1's Win % x Team 2's Win % - Pretty straight forward measure of the quality of the two teams playing. Multiplying the percentages rather than adding them together should better account for how closely matched the two teams are as well, so like two 5-5 teams playing each other will get a higher score than an 8-2 team playing a 2-8 team.

Offensive Factor: There are probably a few really good ways to measure how exciting an offense is (yards per play, long touchdowns) but at the end of the day an exciting offense just scores a lot, so I'll just keep it nice and simple with the average of Team 1 and Team 2's points per game (divided by 100 to scale with the Team Factor).

Defensive Factor: Here I didn't want to just use points per game, because, well, go watch a game that ends 3-0 and tell me that it was constantly exciting. If you want excitement on defense, you have to look at the big plays like sacks and turnovers. For now I'm just using Sack Rate + 4*Turnover Rate, but I may still tinker with that.

X Factor: What is going on in this game that isn't covered in the stats? A big divisional rivalry? A lot of trash talk before the game? A playoff spot on the line? Here I will try to assign a number to express those intangible factors...So if this whole thing is going to be completely arbitrary anyway, why use statistics at all? Well, I don't know, that's just kind of my thing. Don't be mean.

Since this is Week 1, I obviously had to use S17 stats in the calculations.

5. Philadelphia Liberty at Colorado Yeti PHI

Team Factor: (.385 x .385) = 0.1482
Offensive Factor: (17.7 + 22.9 / 2) / 100 = .2031
Defensive Factor: .0927 + .1141 / 2 = .1034
X Factor: None
Watchability Index: 0.4547
Notes: These two finished in the basement of the NSFC in season 17, so it should be no surprise this game is near the bottom of the list. This will be the debut of number two overall pick Zach Hall, but I don't know if that is enough to give this an X Factor bump.

4. Arizona Outlaws at Chicago Butchers ARI

Team Factor: (.692 x .615) = 0.4256
Offensive Factor: (30.31 + 25.8 / 2) / 100 = .2808
Defensive Factor: .1365 + .1412 / 2 = .1389
X Factor: Chicago Trending Down = -.25
Watchability Index: 0.5952
Notes: Before any change, this turned out to be the #1 matchup of the week. That just didn't feel right though. The reason is, if you check out the Season Predictions, you'll see that most are predicting the Butchers to fall into the cellar of the NSFC after a respectable 8-5 record in S17. If that's the case, the Team Factor calculation is a little over-inflated, so it was offset by a negative X Factor.

3. San Jose SaberCats at Orange County Otters SJS

Team Factor: (.462 x .538) = 0.2486
Offensive Factor: (21.5 + 27.8 / 2) / 100 = .2465
Defensive Factor: .1247 + .1469 / 2 = .1358
X Factor: None
Watchability Index: 0.6309
Notes: None, really. This seems like a pretty standard game. We do get to see the defending champs in action?

2. Austin Copperheads at New Orleans Second Line AUS

Team Factor: (.385 x .308) = 0.1186
Offensive Factor: (20.1 + 24.1 / 2) / 100 = .2208
Defensive Factor: .1279 + .0955 / 2 = .1117
X Factor: ReSimGate Revisted +.10, Ennis/Faux Revenge Games +.10
Watchability Index: 0.6510
Notes: Some unqualified people who are less familiar with recent NSFL events may not think much of this game, but there's actually quite a bit at stake here. These two teams almost inadvertently caused riots in week 1 of last season amidst calls to resim the week due to improperly updated players. Additionally, these two just made a big preseason trade as Brayden Ennis and Blake Faux swapped teams...and now immediately get a chance to prove their former teams wrong.

1. Yellowknife Wraiths at Baltimore Hawks YKW

Team Factor: (.615 x .615) = 0.3782
Offensive Factor: (27.8 + 26.4 / 2) / 100 = .2708
Defensive Factor: .1228 + .1275 / 2 = .1251
X Factor: NSFC Championship Rematch = +.10
Watchability Index: 0.8741
Notes: Here we have the S17 Ultimus runner-up in Baltimore facing a likely S18 Ultimus favorite in Yellowknife, making this a pretty easy call for the Game of the Week. My money's on Yellowknife though.

Frick_Nasty · 10-13-2019, 11:47 AM

My guy with the series of the season right here

JuOSu · 10-13-2019, 11:56 AM

NOLA vs Austin in many people's predictions is a game between two teams fighting for that third playoff spot in this conference. I feel like that deserves an X factor based on your definition!

**Raven** · 10-13-2019, 12:00 PM

(10-13-2019, 06:56 PM)JuOSu Wrote:NOLA vs Austin in many people's predictions is a game between two teams fighting for that third playoff spot in this conference. I feel like that deserves an X factor based on your definition!

Just talking about this in my podcast. Def feel like this game should be higher up the list, just because it`s going to be an important wildcard game.

SJS @ OCO seems way to high for what I believe these two teams bring to the table.

Still, very nicely worked out article.