11-20-2019, 01:14 PM
(This post was last modified: 11-21-2019, 11:29 AM by Jay_Doctor.)
There have already been a few draft recaps and they have all been thoughtful and well put together. I have been wanting to write my own as well, but at a certain point it is hard to come up with my own quality analysis without feeling like I am copying others’ work. I thought about how I could take a different approach and came up with more of a TPE based analysis. Not all TPE is the same, though.
A player who created at the end of a previous season will have a big leg up on someone who created part way through the current season. This is not meant to bash players for joining earlier than other, but on the contrary. I would like to shine some light on players who have been growing at a solid rate that might not get as much credit for their work thus far due to a lower TPE. I tried to do this for everyone who I thought was still active and part of the S19 draft class. I apologize if I missed someone.
My approach was simple enough. Take a players’ total TPE and divide by how many weeks they have been a part of the league. There were a couple players that joined at a date that made it debatable as to exactly how many weeks they have in. I tried to keep things consistent when picking cutoffs. When getting the new value, I decided to call it an “Adjusted TPE” or ATPE throughout the analysis.
The average of all 20 draft eligible players came out to 28.97. There are a couple factors that I wanted to take into consideration. This average of approximately 29 does have a couple of recreated players. The reason I this is worth mentioning is because they have the ability to add a lot of equipment early on that most rookies would not be able to do. If we factor out four of the recreated players in this class, we get a new average of 26.4 ATPE. This isn’t a huge difference, but a noticeable difference none the less. Let’s take a look at each position.
I apologize that the formatting is out of whack, it looked clean when I made tables in Word
Quarterbacks
Player TPE ATPE
Avon Blocksdale, Jr. 209 41.8
Deondre Thomas-Fox 194 26.2
Brock Phoenix 186 26.6
Zach Vega 118 19.7
Running Backs
Player TPE ATPE
Quindarius Tyrerucker 187 31.2
Jed Podolak 153 38.2
Wide Receivers
Player TPE ATPE
Sean O’Leary 210 30
Rayne Gordon 186 37.2
Sweet James-Jones 174 29
Tight Ends
Player TPE ATPE
Austin McCormick 236 26.2
Defensive Linemen
Player TPE ATPE
Stevie Vassallo 151 30.2
Jayson Kearse 136 19.4
Tormund Bjornsson 105 35
Linebackers
Player TPE ATPE
Mack Arianlacher 197 28.1
Willie B. Hardagain 169 21.1
Cornerbacks
Player TPE ATPE
Kacey Dream 219 26.2
Safeties
Player TPE ATPE
Mason Blaylock 174 29
Gary Lazer-Eyes 170 42.5
Kicker/Punter
Player TPE ATPE
Jordan Jackson 142 23.7
Herbert Prohaska 136 22.7
If we reordered everyone by ATPE instead, here is what the top 10 looks like.
Player ATPE
Gary Lazer-Eyes 42.5
Avon Blocksdale, Jr. 41.8
Jed Podolak 38.2
Rayne Gordon 37.2
Tormund Bjornsson 35
Quindarius Tyrerucker 31.2
Stevie Vassallo 30.2
Sean O’Leary 30
Sweet James-Jones 29
Mason Blaylock 29
This list is quite a different result than what most might have guessed at first. We can see a couple players that wouldn’t wow you with their overall TPE at the moment, but they have shown some great early dedication to their player which should be noted. The name that jumps out to me the most is Jed Podolak. He joined part way through the season but has been highly active in a short time. He is the one person in the top 5 that is not a recreate.
There are many ways to critique this information. Is it going to change how the draft plays out? Doubtful. Is it helpful when finding a “hidden gem”? Possibly. At the end of the day, anyone who has put enough effort into their player to be a top TPE earner is worth an early pick and those with less are more of a risk early on.
Now to do a 2 round mock draft. Admittedly, I am still new to all of this. I know certain players are required to be drafted by a team and hope that I have caught all of those correctly (thanks to Isa’s help). I have a feeling that there will be a couple trades but guessing that is like trying to pull hay out of a needle stack. Let’s dive into the picks.
1. New Orleans – Austin McCormick
This pick could go a couple of ways. I think NOLA takes a look at either McCormick or Arianlacher with the 1OA pick, but McCormick seems to fit both a need and BPA. McCormick has the build to be an all-pro tight end very early on and helps give NOLA a huge boost offensively.
2. San Jose – Kacey Dream
The strongest defensive player in the class comes off the board early at pick 2. Kacey Dream has the demeanor and work ethic of an elite defensive back and San Jose gladly takes him here. There is an argument to be made here for Deondre Thomas-Fox because of former ties, but it feels a bit early to take a QB with how the roster is at currently.
3. New Orleans – Mack Arianlacher
New Orleans will be thrilled to get Arianlacher here. It feels like they are getting a second 1OA pick and helps build up a young and promising defense. With Bjorn going as the top pick last season and now adding McCormick and Arianlacher with top picks this season, NOLA looks to have a scary young core moving forward.
4. Chicago – Sean O’Leary
Chicago could use some help offensively here and Sean gets the call here. Filling both a need and best available player is perfect for a Chicago team that is looking for young talent. Sean looks like an early candidate to be a WR2 right off the bat and no doubt has plans to be a WR1 in no time.
5. Orange County – Quindarius Tyerucker
The rich get richer here as OCO takes the best running back in the class in Tyerucker. Yet again, we have a case of the best available player is also filling in as a need. It feels like all of these picks have aligned too nicely, so you can imagine this probably won’t pan out as predicted. Either way, Quindarius and Orange County are a perfect fit for each other.
6. Chicago – Gary Lazer-Eyes
Unless I have missed it, I’m pretty sure I am the only one who has projected Gary to be a first-round pick. I find that absolutely crazy. You have a guy here who is a proven commodity and has the money to give him a strong rookie season. Maybe I overlooked something, but I really can’t see Lazer-Eyes falling out of the top 10. Chicago has a big need at FS and the best options for them here are Gary Lazer-Eyes or Mason Blaylock. (I can’t stop saying Gary Lazer-Eyes).
7. Yellowknife – Rayne Gordon
The best non-quarterback on the board goes to Yellowknife here. An argument could be made for James-Jones here, but Rayne seems like the slightly safer pick. You can expect both players to tear up the league regardless of who is taken and where they play. Yellowknife can be happy they added a quality young wide receiver.
8. New Orleans – Mason Blaylock
If Mason is still on the board at pick 8, I don’t see New Orleans passing on him. Unlike Second Line’s other two picks, it is a bit more up in the air if Mason sees the field right away. He would be in contention for a starting role early on and his ability to play multiple positions only helps. Still, he might get more time in the DSFL before getting called up to help his new team.
9. Yellow Knife – Jed Podolak
This is where it starts to feel like picks can go any which way. I think James-Jones should be off the board by now, but with the Wraiths taking a receiver only a couple picks ago, I don’t see them doubling down there. Instead, they go for a young running back. As I mentioned before, Jed is undervalued to me and I see this pick paying out big time down the road. He might see more time in the DSFL, but this is a pick for the future.
10. Orange County – Sweet James-Jones
SWEEEEET. You can bet that you are going to hear that yelled out loud and proud for whichever team takes Sweet James-Jones. The guy has a big personality, but a lot of teams should find that as a big positive. Orange County has to feel like they got a steal with this pick, as other teams needs opened up a great player to fall to them at the end of the first round.
11. Philadelphia – Avon Blocksdale, Jr.
If I’m not mistaken, this is the first player that is guaranteed on where he is going. So, in total, I am confident at this point that I have gone at least 1/11 with these picks. Avon is the top quarterback of the class and will have big expectations down the road. It seems likely he will get more time developing his skills in the DSFL before being ready to take over for Philly.
12. San Jose – Deondre Thomas-Fox
If he wasn’t snatched at 2OA, I think he still goes to San Jose. It doesn’t feel like any teams are really dying for a quarterback in the previous picks and I think San Jose successfully roles the dice on this one. A quarterback of the future here, no doubt.
13. New Orleans – Stevie Vassallo
What are the odds that New Orleans uses all 4 of their top picks on defense? Evidentially it’s a possibility. Stevie could very well be used in various roles for the Second Line early on. He might not see a lot of time early, but there is an opportunity for Vassallo to carve himself a role.
14. Yellowknife – Jordan Jackson
The best kicker/punter in the class winds up as a Wraith. You have to love Jackson’s mentality and I think that will be a deciding factor for Yellowknife to take him here. They don’t have any glaring needs at this point and having a big leg is underrated.
15. Colorado – Tormund Bjornsson
Tormund might be lower on most people’s boards because of having lower TPE. He will have to work a bit harder to catch up with the others in the class, but I absolutely see this as a homerun pick.
16. Austin – Jayson Kearse
What team wouldn’t want more talent on the defensive line? Austin gets a defensive end that will get opportunities to play early on.
17. Baltimore – Brock Phoenix
A future starting quarterback, Brock Phoenix has a ton of potential. This pick reminds of when Aaron Rodgers was taken back in 2004. It feels like he fell past where he should, but it’s just the way it played out. Just like Aaron Rodgers, he is going to a team that already has an elite quarterback. Everyday NFL fans have to ask themselves why their organization passed on Rogers, NSFL mans will be doing the same thing someday.
18. Arizona – Herbert Prohaska
The other kicker of the class goes to Arizona. This doesn’t feel like a great fit here, but you never know. I could see a kicker-needy team willing to trade for this spot and scoop up Prohaska in this range.
19. Chicago – Willie B. Hardagain
This is the other required pick and it involves Willie going to Chicago. This is a blessing for Chicago, as they are basically getting a late first round pick at the end of the second. Guaranteed 2/19 now.
20. Orange County – Zack Vega
With the last pick of the second round, OCO goes with Zach Vega. Like Baltimore, Orange County has their quarterback so don’t expect to see Zack called up for a bit. He will get plenty of time in the DSFL and will look to improve on a respectable first season.
A player who created at the end of a previous season will have a big leg up on someone who created part way through the current season. This is not meant to bash players for joining earlier than other, but on the contrary. I would like to shine some light on players who have been growing at a solid rate that might not get as much credit for their work thus far due to a lower TPE. I tried to do this for everyone who I thought was still active and part of the S19 draft class. I apologize if I missed someone.
My approach was simple enough. Take a players’ total TPE and divide by how many weeks they have been a part of the league. There were a couple players that joined at a date that made it debatable as to exactly how many weeks they have in. I tried to keep things consistent when picking cutoffs. When getting the new value, I decided to call it an “Adjusted TPE” or ATPE throughout the analysis.
The average of all 20 draft eligible players came out to 28.97. There are a couple factors that I wanted to take into consideration. This average of approximately 29 does have a couple of recreated players. The reason I this is worth mentioning is because they have the ability to add a lot of equipment early on that most rookies would not be able to do. If we factor out four of the recreated players in this class, we get a new average of 26.4 ATPE. This isn’t a huge difference, but a noticeable difference none the less. Let’s take a look at each position.
I apologize that the formatting is out of whack, it looked clean when I made tables in Word
Quarterbacks
Player TPE ATPE
Avon Blocksdale, Jr. 209 41.8
Deondre Thomas-Fox 194 26.2
Brock Phoenix 186 26.6
Zach Vega 118 19.7
Running Backs
Player TPE ATPE
Quindarius Tyrerucker 187 31.2
Jed Podolak 153 38.2
Wide Receivers
Player TPE ATPE
Sean O’Leary 210 30
Rayne Gordon 186 37.2
Sweet James-Jones 174 29
Tight Ends
Player TPE ATPE
Austin McCormick 236 26.2
Defensive Linemen
Player TPE ATPE
Stevie Vassallo 151 30.2
Jayson Kearse 136 19.4
Tormund Bjornsson 105 35
Linebackers
Player TPE ATPE
Mack Arianlacher 197 28.1
Willie B. Hardagain 169 21.1
Cornerbacks
Player TPE ATPE
Kacey Dream 219 26.2
Safeties
Player TPE ATPE
Mason Blaylock 174 29
Gary Lazer-Eyes 170 42.5
Kicker/Punter
Player TPE ATPE
Jordan Jackson 142 23.7
Herbert Prohaska 136 22.7
If we reordered everyone by ATPE instead, here is what the top 10 looks like.
Player ATPE
Gary Lazer-Eyes 42.5
Avon Blocksdale, Jr. 41.8
Jed Podolak 38.2
Rayne Gordon 37.2
Tormund Bjornsson 35
Quindarius Tyrerucker 31.2
Stevie Vassallo 30.2
Sean O’Leary 30
Sweet James-Jones 29
Mason Blaylock 29
This list is quite a different result than what most might have guessed at first. We can see a couple players that wouldn’t wow you with their overall TPE at the moment, but they have shown some great early dedication to their player which should be noted. The name that jumps out to me the most is Jed Podolak. He joined part way through the season but has been highly active in a short time. He is the one person in the top 5 that is not a recreate.
There are many ways to critique this information. Is it going to change how the draft plays out? Doubtful. Is it helpful when finding a “hidden gem”? Possibly. At the end of the day, anyone who has put enough effort into their player to be a top TPE earner is worth an early pick and those with less are more of a risk early on.
Now to do a 2 round mock draft. Admittedly, I am still new to all of this. I know certain players are required to be drafted by a team and hope that I have caught all of those correctly (thanks to Isa’s help). I have a feeling that there will be a couple trades but guessing that is like trying to pull hay out of a needle stack. Let’s dive into the picks.
1. New Orleans – Austin McCormick
This pick could go a couple of ways. I think NOLA takes a look at either McCormick or Arianlacher with the 1OA pick, but McCormick seems to fit both a need and BPA. McCormick has the build to be an all-pro tight end very early on and helps give NOLA a huge boost offensively.
2. San Jose – Kacey Dream
The strongest defensive player in the class comes off the board early at pick 2. Kacey Dream has the demeanor and work ethic of an elite defensive back and San Jose gladly takes him here. There is an argument to be made here for Deondre Thomas-Fox because of former ties, but it feels a bit early to take a QB with how the roster is at currently.
3. New Orleans – Mack Arianlacher
New Orleans will be thrilled to get Arianlacher here. It feels like they are getting a second 1OA pick and helps build up a young and promising defense. With Bjorn going as the top pick last season and now adding McCormick and Arianlacher with top picks this season, NOLA looks to have a scary young core moving forward.
4. Chicago – Sean O’Leary
Chicago could use some help offensively here and Sean gets the call here. Filling both a need and best available player is perfect for a Chicago team that is looking for young talent. Sean looks like an early candidate to be a WR2 right off the bat and no doubt has plans to be a WR1 in no time.
5. Orange County – Quindarius Tyerucker
The rich get richer here as OCO takes the best running back in the class in Tyerucker. Yet again, we have a case of the best available player is also filling in as a need. It feels like all of these picks have aligned too nicely, so you can imagine this probably won’t pan out as predicted. Either way, Quindarius and Orange County are a perfect fit for each other.
6. Chicago – Gary Lazer-Eyes
Unless I have missed it, I’m pretty sure I am the only one who has projected Gary to be a first-round pick. I find that absolutely crazy. You have a guy here who is a proven commodity and has the money to give him a strong rookie season. Maybe I overlooked something, but I really can’t see Lazer-Eyes falling out of the top 10. Chicago has a big need at FS and the best options for them here are Gary Lazer-Eyes or Mason Blaylock. (I can’t stop saying Gary Lazer-Eyes).
7. Yellowknife – Rayne Gordon
The best non-quarterback on the board goes to Yellowknife here. An argument could be made for James-Jones here, but Rayne seems like the slightly safer pick. You can expect both players to tear up the league regardless of who is taken and where they play. Yellowknife can be happy they added a quality young wide receiver.
8. New Orleans – Mason Blaylock
If Mason is still on the board at pick 8, I don’t see New Orleans passing on him. Unlike Second Line’s other two picks, it is a bit more up in the air if Mason sees the field right away. He would be in contention for a starting role early on and his ability to play multiple positions only helps. Still, he might get more time in the DSFL before getting called up to help his new team.
9. Yellow Knife – Jed Podolak
This is where it starts to feel like picks can go any which way. I think James-Jones should be off the board by now, but with the Wraiths taking a receiver only a couple picks ago, I don’t see them doubling down there. Instead, they go for a young running back. As I mentioned before, Jed is undervalued to me and I see this pick paying out big time down the road. He might see more time in the DSFL, but this is a pick for the future.
10. Orange County – Sweet James-Jones
SWEEEEET. You can bet that you are going to hear that yelled out loud and proud for whichever team takes Sweet James-Jones. The guy has a big personality, but a lot of teams should find that as a big positive. Orange County has to feel like they got a steal with this pick, as other teams needs opened up a great player to fall to them at the end of the first round.
11. Philadelphia – Avon Blocksdale, Jr.
If I’m not mistaken, this is the first player that is guaranteed on where he is going. So, in total, I am confident at this point that I have gone at least 1/11 with these picks. Avon is the top quarterback of the class and will have big expectations down the road. It seems likely he will get more time developing his skills in the DSFL before being ready to take over for Philly.
12. San Jose – Deondre Thomas-Fox
If he wasn’t snatched at 2OA, I think he still goes to San Jose. It doesn’t feel like any teams are really dying for a quarterback in the previous picks and I think San Jose successfully roles the dice on this one. A quarterback of the future here, no doubt.
13. New Orleans – Stevie Vassallo
What are the odds that New Orleans uses all 4 of their top picks on defense? Evidentially it’s a possibility. Stevie could very well be used in various roles for the Second Line early on. He might not see a lot of time early, but there is an opportunity for Vassallo to carve himself a role.
14. Yellowknife – Jordan Jackson
The best kicker/punter in the class winds up as a Wraith. You have to love Jackson’s mentality and I think that will be a deciding factor for Yellowknife to take him here. They don’t have any glaring needs at this point and having a big leg is underrated.
15. Colorado – Tormund Bjornsson
Tormund might be lower on most people’s boards because of having lower TPE. He will have to work a bit harder to catch up with the others in the class, but I absolutely see this as a homerun pick.
16. Austin – Jayson Kearse
What team wouldn’t want more talent on the defensive line? Austin gets a defensive end that will get opportunities to play early on.
17. Baltimore – Brock Phoenix
A future starting quarterback, Brock Phoenix has a ton of potential. This pick reminds of when Aaron Rodgers was taken back in 2004. It feels like he fell past where he should, but it’s just the way it played out. Just like Aaron Rodgers, he is going to a team that already has an elite quarterback. Everyday NFL fans have to ask themselves why their organization passed on Rogers, NSFL mans will be doing the same thing someday.
18. Arizona – Herbert Prohaska
The other kicker of the class goes to Arizona. This doesn’t feel like a great fit here, but you never know. I could see a kicker-needy team willing to trade for this spot and scoop up Prohaska in this range.
19. Chicago – Willie B. Hardagain
This is the other required pick and it involves Willie going to Chicago. This is a blessing for Chicago, as they are basically getting a late first round pick at the end of the second. Guaranteed 2/19 now.
20. Orange County – Zack Vega
With the last pick of the second round, OCO goes with Zach Vega. Like Baltimore, Orange County has their quarterback so don’t expect to see Zack called up for a bit. He will get plenty of time in the DSFL and will look to improve on a respectable first season.