It's never too early to be writing speculative media about the next off season, so here's a look at upcoming regressions and projected draft needs by team.
Team Breakdowns
The outlaws offense is younger and fairly set. Tight End Jammerson Irving will be hitting his first season of regression so that might be an area the Outlaws look to improve, but I think their defense is going to be the higher priority in the early rounds. With RB Ruff Ruff missing training over the last season and WR green not making any waves, I expect potential DSFL call up Baby Yoda to be in the plans for the future.
The backbone of the Arizona defense (Morris at DT, Knight at Cornerback, McKinnie at safety) will all be hitting their first year of regression. I don't have any insight into what plans they have for retiring or staying around next season, but it's still going to be an area the Outlaws need to address at some point. Additionally, they have 2 other players (Montgomery at CB and Henry at DE) who have been around even longer. Looking at the roster of 4 DTs and 1 DE I have to imagine that they're currently playing one or more DTs out of position. It looked to me like they're mostly playing a 4-2 nickel in the week 3 game I used to see what was up with Morris and Masters on the ends of the line and Miller/Culbertson on the interior and their DE Henry not actually in their base defense. So, I'm guessing Henry is not long for their team and they'll want to pick up at least 1 defensive lineman to prepare for Morris' regression. Smart looks serviceable at linebacker but not active - I expect they'll try to pick up a better option if the timing works, possible calling up Mouseman from the Buccaneers at some point. And at DB, replacing the S12 vet Montgomery seems like a high priority as well as preparing for Knight and McKinnie to enter regression.
High needs: CB, S
Low needs: DL
The offensive core of the Copperheads is S15/16 draftees with WR Tidwell and OL Beaver-Dantes hitting their first year of regression next year. They have a few younger players as well but the next couple seasons may lead to some retirements.
Defense is mostly much younger with S12 vet Kuusela the oldest defensive player by 3 seasons. S Jensen will also be entering a first year of regression but at almost 900 TPE I could easily see hanging around another year. Their DT position came into last year's draft looking fairly week with Bradberton looking to have not improved in the last couple seasons but they picked up McTackle in what's looking solid so far. Still, given that the rest of the defense looks pretty strong, I could see them trying to engineer a trade to address DT during the season to upgrade from Bradberton. At DB, S Jensen will be entering regression and Okura hasn't exactly been a training machine. CB looks good for the near future.
And lastly, K Crisco is into regression and so drafting a replacement needs to happen at some point. He has enough TPE that I could see him lasting another year, but in a big draft class like S22 should be I'd expect Austin to at least try to get someone to address the position at some point.
High needs: DT, DE
Low needs: K, S
The Hawks are looking at a full 6 S15 players on their roster entering regression to go with the other 6 S14 or earlier players. I would be surprised to not see some retirements from the team, especially CB Troyski and double especially K Fulture given a second kicker on the roster. Baltimore seems to be planning for this given 12 players in the DSFL, I'm glad I don't have to figure out the timing of everything for their team, but I have to imagine that the decisions on retirements after this year could make or break the Hawks' chances in S22.
The offense looks strong enough to survive one more season of regression and first round pick WR Kross is looking to be a great addition. Defense is looking a bit weaker with only 3 DL, a strong but aging LB corps, and a DB group where the youngest player is from S18. The DSFL players looks broad but shallow with only QB Fukiwara over 200 TPE as of 3/7 updates. I think it's hard right now to know which positions will have rookies starting next year in Baltimore - if the core players try to stay together for one more year there's probably enough there to make some waves, but I could also see a larger group retirement if they're thinking the holes will be too big. I'm figuring most S15 and some older players will stay around (QB Havran, for example) and that the draft will be about getting players to be starters in S23 but it's really up to their leadership.
High needs: CB, LB
Low needs: S, DL, TE
The Butchers are another older team with 6/19 players being into regression and another 4 S15 vets about to hit it. They do have a pair of S21 receivers with Davis at WR and first round pick TE Firestorm-Fjord at TE looking promising for them. Will QB Jenkins try to take the S15 players RB Leaf Jr. and WR Espeeyeeseetee back for one more year? Or might this be the last? I sure don't know. With Zack Vega over 300 TPE in the DSFL I expect a change to happen at some point, but don't know when. Jenkins is signed through S24 - could that be a sign of a longer horizon? I have no idea.
For defense, Chicago is also old. LB Tucker Jr. with the Pythons seems a likely call-up at some point, but that still leaves the S12 and S13 DT duo of Skarsgard and Harris (with Skarsgard signed through S23!) needing some reinforcement. And S Schneider is one of the handful of S11 draft picks still hanging around which can't plausibly last for much longer. I'd expect to see some significant turnover in the Butchers secondary and have to think it's the top priority while I think they'll try to make do at offense.
High needs: CB, DT
Low needs: S, K, RB
Colorado looks to be in a good position with regards to regression. They have a pair of S12 vets with WR Bishop (second in league-wide max TPE) and CB Hornbacher who could plausibly be either retiring or staying on, but only have 3 S15 players with the lowest being well over 600 TPE. Their offense looks strong overall going into next season and I could totally see Bishop sticking around given their very solid options.
Defense is overall a bit more of a weakness but S21 draftees DE Blackstone and position-switching DT Smirh are looking like solid pickups. The S15 LB pair of Berry and Gabagool are both looking like strong options but will be hitting regression. CB is similar with S12 vet Hornbacher and S15 vet Sinclair having to be considered vs. younger options. I think Sinclair playing is pretty likely but given Hornbacher's age and lessened training in the last few seasons, I wouldn't be surprised if he retires. At a minimum, I'd expect the Yeti to try and draft the future replacements for those positions, but Colorado's overall situation with respect to regression looks solid.
High needs: CB
Low needs: LB, WR
The core of NOLA's team will be hitting regression next year with every player who has earned over 1k TPE hitting the wall. At offense, QB Francisco will hit his second year of regression and I don't see a DSFL QB on the roster - I'd expect to see a move there to prepare of the future. RB Gump and OL Ulysses will entire the first year of regression to join WR Jones. I'd expect to see Jones retire before too long and so a WR pickup seems important unless they plan to rely on S21 RB draftees Barker and Sunrise.
Looking to the defense, the LB duo of Bode and Slothface will be broken since Slothface has announced retirement and recreated as QB for S22. Could that be the plan for NOLA's future? CB Taylor will also be entering regression but that's a deep position for the Second Line. They do only have one safety on the roster, with DSFL option Altee not exactly gaining TPE at a prodigal rate.
High needs: LB, WR
Low needs: S
Orange County's offense has its QB Armstrong and top RB Bigby joining S13 veteran TE Blaze in regression. Armstrong at well over 1k TPE seems likely to remain at least one more season. It looks like the Otters tried to address RB in last year's draft with 4 DSFL RBs under contract, but none have broken 100 TPE - I'd expect them to try again.
On the defensive side, I'd expect DE Mbanefo to not be long for this team - I'm actually surprised that my teammate DE Longshot hasn't been called up to replace him (though I do appreciate it) - might be due to the low remaining cap in Orange County. The rest of the defensive line is on the younger side, but LB Grievous and CB Lattimer will be entering their first regression years. Given both are also over 1k TPE, I'd expect them to stay around for another year similarly to the QB. S13 LB Ginsberg seems like a top target to improve, though, either by calling up Ryan Scott or by drafting.
And lastly, K Dasistwirklichseinnachname will be entering his first year of regression. As the top TPE kicker in the league, I would be surprised if he doesn't stick around for at least one more season. Still, in a deep draft I wouldn't be surprised to see a replacement picked.
High needs: TE
Low needs: RB, K
Philidelphia is in a pretty good spot for regression. They'll see RB 2 Hank and WR Varga hitting their first regression years but I would expect a decent chance to stay around. Hank might take the chance to retire, though, given that he's already the second RB to S16 Torenson.
Defensively, though, I'd expect to see some turnover in the secondary. S11 S vet Garnett I have to imagine will be retiring soon. The S15 pair of CB Emoji and S D'Attoria V seem plausible to stay around given TPE over 1k, but the rest of the defensive backs aren't exactly spring chickens either, and the highest TPE is McMorris' 634. The two DSFL safeties Chikin and Smith may be in future plans, but I'm not convinced they'll be sufficient. For the rest of the defense, regression isn't an issue but talent is - having 88 TPE Personsacker on the roster isn't what you want as an NSFL team. I would expect Liberty to be trying to figure out if they can improve in the draft everywhere outside of DE Gimmy.
High needs: S, CB
Low needs: LB, DE, DT
San Jose's QB is the only member of the offense hitting regression this year and I'd expect him to stay around to try and take advantage of the development in the new faces. With only 2 RBs, 2 WRs, and 1 TE and no compelling DSFL offensive prospects, I would expect to see at least one higher pick in that area, probably WR.
In quite the contract to the offense, the Sabercats' defense in practically a retirement home with LB Burr-Kirven about to join S12 DT Riposete, S12 Ss Staley and Tuck, and S13 S Switft in the ranks of the regressed. It looks like none of those players are signed past S21 so I'd expect them all to be gone next year. The defensive line is a little light but I'd expect S21 DE Otle to join it in S22, replacing Riposte at a minimum. With Burr-Kirven presumably leaving, I could see another LB getting picked up to replace him but it's possible that San Jose considers Brackenridge and Deck to be enough to hold down the position.
And finally, K Bobby isn't doing much in the way of practicing so that seems like a plausible improvement.
High needs: S
Low needs: LB, WR, RB, K
The Wraiths offense looks a lot like a 1-2 year older version of San Jose's with a QB in his first year of regression and a WR in his second and then S18-19 in other positions. They have a lot of DSFL players under contract at WR and TE but none look likely to be making the step up to the NSFL next year right now. They do have a couple QBs including Myrtle Beach's Ramos - but QB Bigsby has a team option through S22. S13 WR Swift is only under contract through S21, so I could see this being his last year. S21 RB Frost seems like a plausible call-up for next season, but both Hanyadi and Drake are under contract through S23. Could the Wraiths plan to have all 3 on the roster, maybe using one as a psuedo-TE? Should be interesting.
Again similarly to San Jose, Yellowstone's defense has a lot of aging vets. Anchors of the D-line DE Alexander and DT Kroustis will both be entering their first year of regression, joining S11 LB Selic, S13 CB Snuggles, S12 S Lejune, and one of the NSFL's two S10 players, S Grithead. That much age on the defense can't be sustained forever and so I would expect the Wraiths to be making picks all across the defense. And similarly to offense, the Wraiths have a lot of DSFL players on defense but still none over 100 TPE.
High needs: S, LB
Low needs: TE, CB, DE
Disclaimer
GMs obviously have a lot more information on the plans for players and retirements which certainly means that the investigation I've done here isn't going to match perfectly up with the outcomes. I did look over the retirement posts, but outside of Slothface I didn't see any for active NSFL players. It's possible I missed some players (especially given that some people don't put the player names in the retirement post and I'm lazy).
Conclusions
Doing this investigation made me glad I'm not a GM. Good luck with that!
More seriously, looking over each team's roster and trying to understand how they'll be drafting to address needs while balancing the current roster definitely gave me an appreciation for what the GMs have to do. The NSFL clearly wouldn't be fun with no teams and so I just wanted to say thank you to the work y'all do in getting everything done and letting everyone else enjoy it. I learned a lot about cap concerns doing this and yeah, I'm glad I don't need to manage it myself.
Additionally, I have to thank @nickyvmlp for giving me the link to teams' contracts which includes their DSFL players. I was completely lost without that information when it came to understanding which DSFL players were associated with which NSFL teams and the prospect of going through the old drafts to find the information out was quite daunting.
Team Breakdowns
The outlaws offense is younger and fairly set. Tight End Jammerson Irving will be hitting his first season of regression so that might be an area the Outlaws look to improve, but I think their defense is going to be the higher priority in the early rounds. With RB Ruff Ruff missing training over the last season and WR green not making any waves, I expect potential DSFL call up Baby Yoda to be in the plans for the future.
The backbone of the Arizona defense (Morris at DT, Knight at Cornerback, McKinnie at safety) will all be hitting their first year of regression. I don't have any insight into what plans they have for retiring or staying around next season, but it's still going to be an area the Outlaws need to address at some point. Additionally, they have 2 other players (Montgomery at CB and Henry at DE) who have been around even longer. Looking at the roster of 4 DTs and 1 DE I have to imagine that they're currently playing one or more DTs out of position. It looked to me like they're mostly playing a 4-2 nickel in the week 3 game I used to see what was up with Morris and Masters on the ends of the line and Miller/Culbertson on the interior and their DE Henry not actually in their base defense. So, I'm guessing Henry is not long for their team and they'll want to pick up at least 1 defensive lineman to prepare for Morris' regression. Smart looks serviceable at linebacker but not active - I expect they'll try to pick up a better option if the timing works, possible calling up Mouseman from the Buccaneers at some point. And at DB, replacing the S12 vet Montgomery seems like a high priority as well as preparing for Knight and McKinnie to enter regression.
High needs: CB, S
Low needs: DL
The offensive core of the Copperheads is S15/16 draftees with WR Tidwell and OL Beaver-Dantes hitting their first year of regression next year. They have a few younger players as well but the next couple seasons may lead to some retirements.
Defense is mostly much younger with S12 vet Kuusela the oldest defensive player by 3 seasons. S Jensen will also be entering a first year of regression but at almost 900 TPE I could easily see hanging around another year. Their DT position came into last year's draft looking fairly week with Bradberton looking to have not improved in the last couple seasons but they picked up McTackle in what's looking solid so far. Still, given that the rest of the defense looks pretty strong, I could see them trying to engineer a trade to address DT during the season to upgrade from Bradberton. At DB, S Jensen will be entering regression and Okura hasn't exactly been a training machine. CB looks good for the near future.
And lastly, K Crisco is into regression and so drafting a replacement needs to happen at some point. He has enough TPE that I could see him lasting another year, but in a big draft class like S22 should be I'd expect Austin to at least try to get someone to address the position at some point.
High needs: DT, DE
Low needs: K, S
The Hawks are looking at a full 6 S15 players on their roster entering regression to go with the other 6 S14 or earlier players. I would be surprised to not see some retirements from the team, especially CB Troyski and double especially K Fulture given a second kicker on the roster. Baltimore seems to be planning for this given 12 players in the DSFL, I'm glad I don't have to figure out the timing of everything for their team, but I have to imagine that the decisions on retirements after this year could make or break the Hawks' chances in S22.
The offense looks strong enough to survive one more season of regression and first round pick WR Kross is looking to be a great addition. Defense is looking a bit weaker with only 3 DL, a strong but aging LB corps, and a DB group where the youngest player is from S18. The DSFL players looks broad but shallow with only QB Fukiwara over 200 TPE as of 3/7 updates. I think it's hard right now to know which positions will have rookies starting next year in Baltimore - if the core players try to stay together for one more year there's probably enough there to make some waves, but I could also see a larger group retirement if they're thinking the holes will be too big. I'm figuring most S15 and some older players will stay around (QB Havran, for example) and that the draft will be about getting players to be starters in S23 but it's really up to their leadership.
High needs: CB, LB
Low needs: S, DL, TE
The Butchers are another older team with 6/19 players being into regression and another 4 S15 vets about to hit it. They do have a pair of S21 receivers with Davis at WR and first round pick TE Firestorm-Fjord at TE looking promising for them. Will QB Jenkins try to take the S15 players RB Leaf Jr. and WR Espeeyeeseetee back for one more year? Or might this be the last? I sure don't know. With Zack Vega over 300 TPE in the DSFL I expect a change to happen at some point, but don't know when. Jenkins is signed through S24 - could that be a sign of a longer horizon? I have no idea.
For defense, Chicago is also old. LB Tucker Jr. with the Pythons seems a likely call-up at some point, but that still leaves the S12 and S13 DT duo of Skarsgard and Harris (with Skarsgard signed through S23!) needing some reinforcement. And S Schneider is one of the handful of S11 draft picks still hanging around which can't plausibly last for much longer. I'd expect to see some significant turnover in the Butchers secondary and have to think it's the top priority while I think they'll try to make do at offense.
High needs: CB, DT
Low needs: S, K, RB
Colorado looks to be in a good position with regards to regression. They have a pair of S12 vets with WR Bishop (second in league-wide max TPE) and CB Hornbacher who could plausibly be either retiring or staying on, but only have 3 S15 players with the lowest being well over 600 TPE. Their offense looks strong overall going into next season and I could totally see Bishop sticking around given their very solid options.
Defense is overall a bit more of a weakness but S21 draftees DE Blackstone and position-switching DT Smirh are looking like solid pickups. The S15 LB pair of Berry and Gabagool are both looking like strong options but will be hitting regression. CB is similar with S12 vet Hornbacher and S15 vet Sinclair having to be considered vs. younger options. I think Sinclair playing is pretty likely but given Hornbacher's age and lessened training in the last few seasons, I wouldn't be surprised if he retires. At a minimum, I'd expect the Yeti to try and draft the future replacements for those positions, but Colorado's overall situation with respect to regression looks solid.
High needs: CB
Low needs: LB, WR
The core of NOLA's team will be hitting regression next year with every player who has earned over 1k TPE hitting the wall. At offense, QB Francisco will hit his second year of regression and I don't see a DSFL QB on the roster - I'd expect to see a move there to prepare of the future. RB Gump and OL Ulysses will entire the first year of regression to join WR Jones. I'd expect to see Jones retire before too long and so a WR pickup seems important unless they plan to rely on S21 RB draftees Barker and Sunrise.
Looking to the defense, the LB duo of Bode and Slothface will be broken since Slothface has announced retirement and recreated as QB for S22. Could that be the plan for NOLA's future? CB Taylor will also be entering regression but that's a deep position for the Second Line. They do only have one safety on the roster, with DSFL option Altee not exactly gaining TPE at a prodigal rate.
High needs: LB, WR
Low needs: S
Orange County's offense has its QB Armstrong and top RB Bigby joining S13 veteran TE Blaze in regression. Armstrong at well over 1k TPE seems likely to remain at least one more season. It looks like the Otters tried to address RB in last year's draft with 4 DSFL RBs under contract, but none have broken 100 TPE - I'd expect them to try again.
On the defensive side, I'd expect DE Mbanefo to not be long for this team - I'm actually surprised that my teammate DE Longshot hasn't been called up to replace him (though I do appreciate it) - might be due to the low remaining cap in Orange County. The rest of the defensive line is on the younger side, but LB Grievous and CB Lattimer will be entering their first regression years. Given both are also over 1k TPE, I'd expect them to stay around for another year similarly to the QB. S13 LB Ginsberg seems like a top target to improve, though, either by calling up Ryan Scott or by drafting.
And lastly, K Dasistwirklichseinnachname will be entering his first year of regression. As the top TPE kicker in the league, I would be surprised if he doesn't stick around for at least one more season. Still, in a deep draft I wouldn't be surprised to see a replacement picked.
High needs: TE
Low needs: RB, K
Philidelphia is in a pretty good spot for regression. They'll see RB 2 Hank and WR Varga hitting their first regression years but I would expect a decent chance to stay around. Hank might take the chance to retire, though, given that he's already the second RB to S16 Torenson.
Defensively, though, I'd expect to see some turnover in the secondary. S11 S vet Garnett I have to imagine will be retiring soon. The S15 pair of CB Emoji and S D'Attoria V seem plausible to stay around given TPE over 1k, but the rest of the defensive backs aren't exactly spring chickens either, and the highest TPE is McMorris' 634. The two DSFL safeties Chikin and Smith may be in future plans, but I'm not convinced they'll be sufficient. For the rest of the defense, regression isn't an issue but talent is - having 88 TPE Personsacker on the roster isn't what you want as an NSFL team. I would expect Liberty to be trying to figure out if they can improve in the draft everywhere outside of DE Gimmy.
High needs: S, CB
Low needs: LB, DE, DT
San Jose's QB is the only member of the offense hitting regression this year and I'd expect him to stay around to try and take advantage of the development in the new faces. With only 2 RBs, 2 WRs, and 1 TE and no compelling DSFL offensive prospects, I would expect to see at least one higher pick in that area, probably WR.
In quite the contract to the offense, the Sabercats' defense in practically a retirement home with LB Burr-Kirven about to join S12 DT Riposete, S12 Ss Staley and Tuck, and S13 S Switft in the ranks of the regressed. It looks like none of those players are signed past S21 so I'd expect them all to be gone next year. The defensive line is a little light but I'd expect S21 DE Otle to join it in S22, replacing Riposte at a minimum. With Burr-Kirven presumably leaving, I could see another LB getting picked up to replace him but it's possible that San Jose considers Brackenridge and Deck to be enough to hold down the position.
And finally, K Bobby isn't doing much in the way of practicing so that seems like a plausible improvement.
High needs: S
Low needs: LB, WR, RB, K
The Wraiths offense looks a lot like a 1-2 year older version of San Jose's with a QB in his first year of regression and a WR in his second and then S18-19 in other positions. They have a lot of DSFL players under contract at WR and TE but none look likely to be making the step up to the NSFL next year right now. They do have a couple QBs including Myrtle Beach's Ramos - but QB Bigsby has a team option through S22. S13 WR Swift is only under contract through S21, so I could see this being his last year. S21 RB Frost seems like a plausible call-up for next season, but both Hanyadi and Drake are under contract through S23. Could the Wraiths plan to have all 3 on the roster, maybe using one as a psuedo-TE? Should be interesting.
Again similarly to San Jose, Yellowstone's defense has a lot of aging vets. Anchors of the D-line DE Alexander and DT Kroustis will both be entering their first year of regression, joining S11 LB Selic, S13 CB Snuggles, S12 S Lejune, and one of the NSFL's two S10 players, S Grithead. That much age on the defense can't be sustained forever and so I would expect the Wraiths to be making picks all across the defense. And similarly to offense, the Wraiths have a lot of DSFL players on defense but still none over 100 TPE.
High needs: S, LB
Low needs: TE, CB, DE
Disclaimer
GMs obviously have a lot more information on the plans for players and retirements which certainly means that the investigation I've done here isn't going to match perfectly up with the outcomes. I did look over the retirement posts, but outside of Slothface I didn't see any for active NSFL players. It's possible I missed some players (especially given that some people don't put the player names in the retirement post and I'm lazy).
Conclusions
Doing this investigation made me glad I'm not a GM. Good luck with that!
More seriously, looking over each team's roster and trying to understand how they'll be drafting to address needs while balancing the current roster definitely gave me an appreciation for what the GMs have to do. The NSFL clearly wouldn't be fun with no teams and so I just wanted to say thank you to the work y'all do in getting everything done and letting everyone else enjoy it. I learned a lot about cap concerns doing this and yeah, I'm glad I don't need to manage it myself.
Additionally, I have to thank @nickyvmlp for giving me the link to teams' contracts which includes their DSFL players. I was completely lost without that information when it came to understanding which DSFL players were associated with which NSFL teams and the prospect of going through the old drafts to find the information out was quite daunting.
Draft Steal (retired S35 CB) - Profile/Update | Wiki
Troen Egghands (retired S22 DE) - Profile | Update | Wiki