[div align=\\\"center\\\"]NSFL FINAL POWER RANKINGS [/div]
TLDR:
1. Orange County
2. Baltimore
3. New Orleans
4. Colorado
5. Yellowknife
6. Austin
7. Chicago
8. San Jose
9. Philadelphia
10. Arizona
Season 21 is in the books, now only playoffs remain. We had one big surprise this season, but apart from that things went as one might expect. No write up this week as I’m pretty busy at the hospital with Coronavirus. Look for the DSFL power rankings sometime this weekend.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]METHOD[/div]
No method changes to report for this week
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]RESULTS[/div]
OFFENSIVE POWER RANKINGS
(number in brackets denotes TPE rankings)
1. New Orleans 4.5568 (3)
2. Austin 4.4581 (1) UP 1
3. Baltimore 4.4486 (4) DOWN 1
4. Colorado 4.3405 (2) UP 2
5. Orange County 4.3057 (7) DOWN 1
6. Yellowknife 4.2917 (6) DOWN 1
7. Chicago 4.2512 (5)
8. Philadelphia 3.5885 (9)
9. Arizona 3.4994 (8)
10. San Jose 3.2763 (10)
Not a lot of movement in this final week. Everyone settled into more or less where they should be, with no team more than two spots away from where they should rank in terms of TPE. Chicago, Colorado, and New Orleans all finished at the max two spots away. All 3 were relatively close to their competition, not finishing more than 0.1 points away from the next nearest team. I’d say this is a win for the notion that TPE, and the way it was balanced, is a pretty good predicator of overall capability. Finally, I’d like to note that there were 3 distinct tiers that were formed this season. Tier 1: NOLA, Austin and the Hawks. Tier 2: Yeti, OCO, YKW and Chicago. Tier 3: The rest
DEFENSIVE POWER RANKINGS
(number in brackets denotes TPE rankings)
1. New Orleans 4.2122 (1)
2. Orange County 4.1534 (6)
3. Colorado 3.7851 (2) UP 1
4. Yellowknife 3.7151 (3) DOWN 1
5. Baltimore 3.7112 (4)
6. San Jose 3.5869 (8)
7. Philadelphia 3.4144 (5)
8. Austin 3.2223 (7)
9. Chicago 3.0209 (9)
10. Arizona 2.8676 (10)
As with the offensive rankings, the defensive rankings are nearly perfectly predicted by TPE with one exception, OCO. OCO ranked 6th in TPE and somehow finished 2nd in terms of defense. No idea how that happened. If OCO had finished where they were predicted to finish (6th), these rankings would have predicted the top 6 (AKA the playoff teams) with 100% accuracy. Again, TPE based prediction seems to be pretty accurate here. I will need to do some further testing to figure out why OCO was so good however. It may come down to just superior sim testing however.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"] FINAL COMBINED POWER RANKINGS WITH INDEX[/div]
(First bracket number is purely stats/performance. Second number is TPE rankings)
1. Orange County 3.6826 (1) (6)
2. Baltimore 3.5655 (3) (3) UP 1
3. New Orleans 3.5561 (2) (1) DOWN 1
4. Colorado 3.4362 (5) (2) UP 1
5. Yellowknife 3.1852 (4) (4) DOWN 1
6. Austin 3.0008 (6) (5)
7. Chicago 2.8402 (7) (8) UP 1
8. San Jose 2.7556 (8) (9) DOWN 1
9. Philadelphia 2.5365 (9) (7)
10. Arizona 2.4210 (10) (10)
Here we are, the final rankings for the season. OCO again ruins everything by finishing at #1 when they were predicted to be #6. Congratulations to them nonetheless. Every team finished with 1 rank from their predicted rank with the exception of OCO and Colorado. Colorado finished 2 ranks away and OCO did OCO things.
1. Orange County: As mentioned above, our season winners are one that was ultimately unexpected based on the pre season. It wasn’t like this team got lucky either, as they put up the #1 best overall stats (points and yards) of any team. I feel confident in saying this is the most well-run organization in the league.
2. Baltimore comes in at #2. They go into the playoffs as our hottest team. In all honesty I think this team has about an equal chance to win the Ultimus as OCO and NOLA does. They have a slightly harder division in my opinion, and are riding a 4 game win streaks. Whoever comes out of the YKW and Yeti game will be a very tough competitor for the conference championship. With homefield advantage I do think they take it. If they do make it to the Ultimus game, they play on the road against likely one of NOLA or OCO, two teams they just beat, but beat at home. The games were close, especially the NOLA, winning by 1 point. It’s so tough to call. Regardless, this is hands down the best team in the NSFC.
3. NOLA slides down to #3. A 4-game losing streak, combined with the fact that they finished #2 in the ASFC despite having 1 more home game than OCO means they drop below even the Hawks after one of the strongest starts in league history. In fairness, 3 of their 4 last games were against top tier teams. However, a lose to the Butchers, where a win would have given them HFA for the entirety of the playoffs, is a crushing blow to this team. Another thing to note is that NOLA only played 2 top 4 team during their 9-game win streak. Is NOLA suffering from what the Patriots in the NFL suffered from? An easy schedule and a sense of being overrated? I think so. I do think NOLA takes out Austin, but in my playoff predictions I have them losing to OCO on the road, despite winning their first match against OCO on the road.
4. Colorado comes into the playoffs with wins in 7 of their last 9. Their only losses came to OCO and the liberty on the road. Colorado seems hot and to be honest they are. While I do have them winning their wildcard matchup against YKW, I would heed caution with this team. This team is 1-3 against the top 3 teams. To be fair to the Yeti, they lost their 3 games to NOLA, OCO and the Hawks on the road, and won their home game against the Hawks. That being said, Yeti will have to play any of these teams on the road. A tough ask to be sure.
5. Yellowknife comes into the playoffs with the most offensive yards in the league, and the least yards allowed in their conference. In terms of stats, they rank above Colorado. By all metrics, they’ve had a really good season. Do they take out the Yeti today for the wildcard spot? I think really it comes down the HFA, and that’s where the odds are stacked against the Yeti. I’d give the Wraiths 30/70 odds of winning this game, which is quite a bit higher than what I would give Austin to beat NOLA.
6. Austin, our reigning champs, were brought back down to earth this season. Playoffs, while never in doubt, were secured a few weeks ago. Unfortunately for the Copperheads, unless they manage to play the Wraiths for the Ultimus, they will be on the road all season, where they are just 3-3. The Copperheads, like NOLA, had an extra home game this season, but still barely managed to break .500. Of all the playoff teams, this one is the weakest. With only 2 picks in the first 3 rounds of this next massive S(22) draft, Austin may just drop out of a playoff position next year.
7. Chicago comes in at a respectable 7th place. The best team of the non-playoff teams, the Butchers managed to take out NOLA and play a major spoiler in their last game of the season. New management has been brought in as we are all aware. With only a 2nd in the first 5 rounds of this draft, their chance at securing many active players is slim to none for next year unless some trades can be made asap. These 2 weeks will be very instructive in seeing how this new management group for Butchers looks to fix the broken Chicago franchise
8. San Jose put up 2 wins in their last 4 games to come out ahead of the Liberty for 8th. San Jose is a young team on the rise, and with their full array of picks, look for them to make some noise next year
9. Philadelphia will have 4 of their 1000+ TPE players go into regression very soon. With 4 picks in the first 3 rounds, they have an opportunity to fix this issue.
10. Arizona sucks, but they got the most picks of any team this coming draft. 3 picks in the first 2 rounds, followed by 4 in rounds 3-5. Arizona is in full rebuild mode right now, and are lucky to even have 3 wins.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]Conclusion [/div]
These power ranking were a success in my eyes in terms of their predictive reliability. I will look to play with the sim in the offseason and tweaks some of the formulas. The rankings went through numerous changes as the season progressed. I’m hoping next season we can start with a method that is set in stone and can be followed throughout the season. Regardless, thank you all for reading these! Look out for the DSFL rankings over the weekend.
1491 words
TLDR:
1. Orange County
2. Baltimore
3. New Orleans
4. Colorado
5. Yellowknife
6. Austin
7. Chicago
8. San Jose
9. Philadelphia
10. Arizona
Season 21 is in the books, now only playoffs remain. We had one big surprise this season, but apart from that things went as one might expect. No write up this week as I’m pretty busy at the hospital with Coronavirus. Look for the DSFL power rankings sometime this weekend.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]METHOD[/div]
No method changes to report for this week
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]RESULTS[/div]
OFFENSIVE POWER RANKINGS
(number in brackets denotes TPE rankings)
1. New Orleans 4.5568 (3)
2. Austin 4.4581 (1) UP 1
3. Baltimore 4.4486 (4) DOWN 1
4. Colorado 4.3405 (2) UP 2
5. Orange County 4.3057 (7) DOWN 1
6. Yellowknife 4.2917 (6) DOWN 1
7. Chicago 4.2512 (5)
8. Philadelphia 3.5885 (9)
9. Arizona 3.4994 (8)
10. San Jose 3.2763 (10)
Not a lot of movement in this final week. Everyone settled into more or less where they should be, with no team more than two spots away from where they should rank in terms of TPE. Chicago, Colorado, and New Orleans all finished at the max two spots away. All 3 were relatively close to their competition, not finishing more than 0.1 points away from the next nearest team. I’d say this is a win for the notion that TPE, and the way it was balanced, is a pretty good predicator of overall capability. Finally, I’d like to note that there were 3 distinct tiers that were formed this season. Tier 1: NOLA, Austin and the Hawks. Tier 2: Yeti, OCO, YKW and Chicago. Tier 3: The rest
DEFENSIVE POWER RANKINGS
(number in brackets denotes TPE rankings)
1. New Orleans 4.2122 (1)
2. Orange County 4.1534 (6)
3. Colorado 3.7851 (2) UP 1
4. Yellowknife 3.7151 (3) DOWN 1
5. Baltimore 3.7112 (4)
6. San Jose 3.5869 (8)
7. Philadelphia 3.4144 (5)
8. Austin 3.2223 (7)
9. Chicago 3.0209 (9)
10. Arizona 2.8676 (10)
As with the offensive rankings, the defensive rankings are nearly perfectly predicted by TPE with one exception, OCO. OCO ranked 6th in TPE and somehow finished 2nd in terms of defense. No idea how that happened. If OCO had finished where they were predicted to finish (6th), these rankings would have predicted the top 6 (AKA the playoff teams) with 100% accuracy. Again, TPE based prediction seems to be pretty accurate here. I will need to do some further testing to figure out why OCO was so good however. It may come down to just superior sim testing however.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"] FINAL COMBINED POWER RANKINGS WITH INDEX[/div]
(First bracket number is purely stats/performance. Second number is TPE rankings)
1. Orange County 3.6826 (1) (6)
2. Baltimore 3.5655 (3) (3) UP 1
3. New Orleans 3.5561 (2) (1) DOWN 1
4. Colorado 3.4362 (5) (2) UP 1
5. Yellowknife 3.1852 (4) (4) DOWN 1
6. Austin 3.0008 (6) (5)
7. Chicago 2.8402 (7) (8) UP 1
8. San Jose 2.7556 (8) (9) DOWN 1
9. Philadelphia 2.5365 (9) (7)
10. Arizona 2.4210 (10) (10)
Here we are, the final rankings for the season. OCO again ruins everything by finishing at #1 when they were predicted to be #6. Congratulations to them nonetheless. Every team finished with 1 rank from their predicted rank with the exception of OCO and Colorado. Colorado finished 2 ranks away and OCO did OCO things.
1. Orange County: As mentioned above, our season winners are one that was ultimately unexpected based on the pre season. It wasn’t like this team got lucky either, as they put up the #1 best overall stats (points and yards) of any team. I feel confident in saying this is the most well-run organization in the league.
2. Baltimore comes in at #2. They go into the playoffs as our hottest team. In all honesty I think this team has about an equal chance to win the Ultimus as OCO and NOLA does. They have a slightly harder division in my opinion, and are riding a 4 game win streaks. Whoever comes out of the YKW and Yeti game will be a very tough competitor for the conference championship. With homefield advantage I do think they take it. If they do make it to the Ultimus game, they play on the road against likely one of NOLA or OCO, two teams they just beat, but beat at home. The games were close, especially the NOLA, winning by 1 point. It’s so tough to call. Regardless, this is hands down the best team in the NSFC.
3. NOLA slides down to #3. A 4-game losing streak, combined with the fact that they finished #2 in the ASFC despite having 1 more home game than OCO means they drop below even the Hawks after one of the strongest starts in league history. In fairness, 3 of their 4 last games were against top tier teams. However, a lose to the Butchers, where a win would have given them HFA for the entirety of the playoffs, is a crushing blow to this team. Another thing to note is that NOLA only played 2 top 4 team during their 9-game win streak. Is NOLA suffering from what the Patriots in the NFL suffered from? An easy schedule and a sense of being overrated? I think so. I do think NOLA takes out Austin, but in my playoff predictions I have them losing to OCO on the road, despite winning their first match against OCO on the road.
4. Colorado comes into the playoffs with wins in 7 of their last 9. Their only losses came to OCO and the liberty on the road. Colorado seems hot and to be honest they are. While I do have them winning their wildcard matchup against YKW, I would heed caution with this team. This team is 1-3 against the top 3 teams. To be fair to the Yeti, they lost their 3 games to NOLA, OCO and the Hawks on the road, and won their home game against the Hawks. That being said, Yeti will have to play any of these teams on the road. A tough ask to be sure.
5. Yellowknife comes into the playoffs with the most offensive yards in the league, and the least yards allowed in their conference. In terms of stats, they rank above Colorado. By all metrics, they’ve had a really good season. Do they take out the Yeti today for the wildcard spot? I think really it comes down the HFA, and that’s where the odds are stacked against the Yeti. I’d give the Wraiths 30/70 odds of winning this game, which is quite a bit higher than what I would give Austin to beat NOLA.
6. Austin, our reigning champs, were brought back down to earth this season. Playoffs, while never in doubt, were secured a few weeks ago. Unfortunately for the Copperheads, unless they manage to play the Wraiths for the Ultimus, they will be on the road all season, where they are just 3-3. The Copperheads, like NOLA, had an extra home game this season, but still barely managed to break .500. Of all the playoff teams, this one is the weakest. With only 2 picks in the first 3 rounds of this next massive S(22) draft, Austin may just drop out of a playoff position next year.
7. Chicago comes in at a respectable 7th place. The best team of the non-playoff teams, the Butchers managed to take out NOLA and play a major spoiler in their last game of the season. New management has been brought in as we are all aware. With only a 2nd in the first 5 rounds of this draft, their chance at securing many active players is slim to none for next year unless some trades can be made asap. These 2 weeks will be very instructive in seeing how this new management group for Butchers looks to fix the broken Chicago franchise
8. San Jose put up 2 wins in their last 4 games to come out ahead of the Liberty for 8th. San Jose is a young team on the rise, and with their full array of picks, look for them to make some noise next year
9. Philadelphia will have 4 of their 1000+ TPE players go into regression very soon. With 4 picks in the first 3 rounds, they have an opportunity to fix this issue.
10. Arizona sucks, but they got the most picks of any team this coming draft. 3 picks in the first 2 rounds, followed by 4 in rounds 3-5. Arizona is in full rebuild mode right now, and are lucky to even have 3 wins.
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]Conclusion [/div]
These power ranking were a success in my eyes in terms of their predictive reliability. I will look to play with the sim in the offseason and tweaks some of the formulas. The rankings went through numerous changes as the season progressed. I’m hoping next season we can start with a method that is set in stone and can be followed throughout the season. Regardless, thank you all for reading these! Look out for the DSFL rankings over the weekend.
1491 words
![[Image: LcQ6IQh.png]](https://imgur.com/LcQ6IQh.png)
![[Image: rqph9tT.jpg]](https://i.imgur.com/rqph9tT.jpg)
![[Image: 6HEXEeb.png]](https://i.imgur.com/6HEXEeb.png)
