04-06-2020, 10:19 AM
(This post was last modified: 04-06-2020, 10:22 AM by mithrandir.)
Below is my 288 player big board created with a weighted TPE formula which takes into account activity level, positional importance (demand), and positional scarcity (supply).
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yBs...dit?usp=sharing
Methodology
I copied the TPE tracker table into excel and narrowed it down to just S22 rookies.
C. TPE is the player's current raw TPE total.
I took the average TPE of the top 10 players (except K and QB which had fewer than 10 players over 50 TPE) at every position to create the PS (positional strength) column. A higher PS means a deeper class, thus hurting the draft stock of players at that position.
The AS (Activity score) is weighted to weed out the players who have not updated recently.
The VRP (value relative to peers) column is the main contribution of this system. It divides a players current TPE by the positional strength column to determine how valuable that player is relative to the overall position. TE Jeffrey Phillips (1.73) and DT Phat Boi (1.43) are really great players at shallow positions, so they have incredibly high VRP. On the other hand, CBs Mendoza and Harris, despite having very good TPE numbers at 200 and 198, have a VRP of 0.96 and 0.95, since they have less TPE than the average top 10 CB.
Finally, the PV (positional value) factor is somewhat subjective, given that I had to make up values to adjust for the demand at each position. However, through surveys of GMs and general consensus, I determined that nearly all teams want defensive backs and defensive linemen in the upcoming draft. Those four positions received a PV of 1.00. Linebackers were often mentioned as needs, so they received a PV of .95. QBs were given a .90, TE and WR a .85, OL and RB .75, and K/P .60.
I multiplied the players' current TPE by the AS, VRP, and PV to get their weighted TPE value. After sorting, I ended up with a perfect big board for the draft. This method does not take into account a player's interviewing skills, personal connections with teams, GM autoselections, or team-specific needs. In other words, it's not a mock draft, just a board of player value. If every team just took the best player available, this weighted TPE board would closely exemplify the draft order.
Notable Movers Since Version 1
CB Tyler Oles Jr. dropped from 6th all the way to 38th. Missing an update is strange for a top level player. It is troubling that the update he missed is the one right before the playoffs, which indicates to me that he does not care much about the success of his DSFL team. I'm sure he will be drafted much higher than 38th, and one missed update in the long run of a career is insignificant. However, at an incredibly deep cornerback class, I expect Oles Jr. to drop a little on GMs draft boards.
DE James Cho rose from 31st to 6th. After several lackluster updates, Cho dropped a huge 50+ point update right before the draft. Previously considered a low second tier defensive end, Cho is now hot on Egghands heels for the distinction of top DE. As a high earner at a shallow position of need, Cho has boosted his draft stock tremendously.
Elite Offensive Linemen are surging up draft boards. As the top linemen continue to separate themselves from the rest of the pack, their VRP is getting higher. No OL appeared in the top 20 of V. 1, but 3 OL are in the top 20 of V. 2. While the tide of public opinion is turning on the importance of human linemen, we will have to wait and see if the GMs agree and take a chance on a lineman early in the draft.
My teammates LB George Fisher and RB Julio Tirtwidjaja made some big jumps this week, moving up 13 and 15 spots, respectively.
Many others moved up or down due to inactivity, equipment purchases or various other factors. Draft stock is fluid, but I think this is a valuable snapshot of draft value after the final pre-draft update. For those interested, I have provided a line graph charting the weighted TPE value of the class.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yBs...dit?usp=sharing
Methodology
I copied the TPE tracker table into excel and narrowed it down to just S22 rookies.
C. TPE is the player's current raw TPE total.
I took the average TPE of the top 10 players (except K and QB which had fewer than 10 players over 50 TPE) at every position to create the PS (positional strength) column. A higher PS means a deeper class, thus hurting the draft stock of players at that position.
The AS (Activity score) is weighted to weed out the players who have not updated recently.
The VRP (value relative to peers) column is the main contribution of this system. It divides a players current TPE by the positional strength column to determine how valuable that player is relative to the overall position. TE Jeffrey Phillips (1.73) and DT Phat Boi (1.43) are really great players at shallow positions, so they have incredibly high VRP. On the other hand, CBs Mendoza and Harris, despite having very good TPE numbers at 200 and 198, have a VRP of 0.96 and 0.95, since they have less TPE than the average top 10 CB.
Finally, the PV (positional value) factor is somewhat subjective, given that I had to make up values to adjust for the demand at each position. However, through surveys of GMs and general consensus, I determined that nearly all teams want defensive backs and defensive linemen in the upcoming draft. Those four positions received a PV of 1.00. Linebackers were often mentioned as needs, so they received a PV of .95. QBs were given a .90, TE and WR a .85, OL and RB .75, and K/P .60.
I multiplied the players' current TPE by the AS, VRP, and PV to get their weighted TPE value. After sorting, I ended up with a perfect big board for the draft. This method does not take into account a player's interviewing skills, personal connections with teams, GM autoselections, or team-specific needs. In other words, it's not a mock draft, just a board of player value. If every team just took the best player available, this weighted TPE board would closely exemplify the draft order.
Notable Movers Since Version 1
CB Tyler Oles Jr. dropped from 6th all the way to 38th. Missing an update is strange for a top level player. It is troubling that the update he missed is the one right before the playoffs, which indicates to me that he does not care much about the success of his DSFL team. I'm sure he will be drafted much higher than 38th, and one missed update in the long run of a career is insignificant. However, at an incredibly deep cornerback class, I expect Oles Jr. to drop a little on GMs draft boards.
DE James Cho rose from 31st to 6th. After several lackluster updates, Cho dropped a huge 50+ point update right before the draft. Previously considered a low second tier defensive end, Cho is now hot on Egghands heels for the distinction of top DE. As a high earner at a shallow position of need, Cho has boosted his draft stock tremendously.
Elite Offensive Linemen are surging up draft boards. As the top linemen continue to separate themselves from the rest of the pack, their VRP is getting higher. No OL appeared in the top 20 of V. 1, but 3 OL are in the top 20 of V. 2. While the tide of public opinion is turning on the importance of human linemen, we will have to wait and see if the GMs agree and take a chance on a lineman early in the draft.
My teammates LB George Fisher and RB Julio Tirtwidjaja made some big jumps this week, moving up 13 and 15 spots, respectively.
Many others moved up or down due to inactivity, equipment purchases or various other factors. Draft stock is fluid, but I think this is a valuable snapshot of draft value after the final pre-draft update. For those interested, I have provided a line graph charting the weighted TPE value of the class.