A whole lot of us S15 players are experiencing regression for the first time. It's unfortunate to see that the good times are starting to come to an end for us, but it's necessary so that this league has a healthy balance of old and new players. The future arrives every offseason, thus the past must take it's leave as a response. Some people, like the legendary Gimmy Jaroppolo who we've lost just this offseason, let regression take its course immediately. Others plan for the future. Take me for example. I had 677 TPE entering this offseason. Not much by any means, and hardly a max earner. However, thanks to my very useful regression calculator, I've been able to determine that I will need to earn a minimum of 135 TPE per season to stick around until my 13th season. I believe it will be just long enough to snag the XP record from Turk Turkleton. I also need to hope that OCO (or whoever has me in my twilight seasons) doesn't decide to send me back down to the DSFL because of how low my TPE will get (I have since been told that you can't get sent back down to the DSFL). Regression is brutal like that. The influx of younger active kickers also doesn't help me in that regard.
I told the Portland Pythons before the S14 DSFL draft and a few undisclosed NSFL teams before the S15 NSFL Draft that it was my goal to play 15 seasons. Perhaps that is every new player's goal. I realize now, however, that it was naive of me to say. 15 seasons would be more than enough for me to get that XP record and more, undoubtedly. But there's a reason no one in the history of this league has played for that long before. However I'm a bad example to use at this point. I've gone inactive multiple times in my career, and I am in no way a max earner. Thus the door to 15 seasons was closed to me quite early in my career (assuming it's even possible to crack 15 seasons). Instead I will tell you the story of Vladimir Fyodorovich, and why like all other max earners, was auto-retired after his 13th season.
Vladimir was drafted by the San Antonio Marshals in the S6 DSFL Draft. A cornerback at the time, he won that season's DBotY, DPotY, won the Ultimini, and was selected to the DSFL Pro Bowl. It's important to point this out because the countdown to regression doesn't begin until a player is drafted by an NSFL team. So, in a way, Fyodorovich did play for 14 seasons, but that's not the point. The point is that he played for 13 seasons in the NSFL, and won a whole lot of accolades for his performances. After his incredible season in the DSFL, Vladimir was drafted by the Orange County Otters, where he won DRotY (shared with Yeti player Desta Danger), and made it to Ultimus VII (the only Ultimus Orange County has lost so far). That offseason, a trade between the Otters and the Secondline sent Fyodorovich and that year's first round pick to New Orleans, in exchange for Jaylon Broxton, speculadora's player at the time. With the hindsight of today, I'd argue this trade was a win for both teams. Vladimir and the Secondline would go on to play in the next four Ultimus Bowls, going 2-2. After season 10, he changed his position to WR and was selected to the Pro Bowl every year afterwards up until his retirement, and won more positional awards in that time.
This is an example of a Hall of Fame career. Fyodorovich's user, majesiu, was a max earner through all of it, reaching a peak of 1363 TPE, which is currently 12th all-time. That's just about 164 TPE earned per season (counting the one DSFL season). However, he was auto-retired after his 13th season. I've already done the math to show that my player will also be retired after that long. How is it possible for an under 700 TPE kicker to play for as long as a max earner?
It's because the regression system is inherently flawed.
Let's assume Vladimir earned 164 TPE every season after regression, and my player will earn 135 TPE every season. This TPE will be added to the total after that offseason's regression. In other words, the prior season's TPE amount will be regressed, and then the average TPE will be added to it and put into the next season's row. If, however, the regressed TPE goes below 150, the player will be auto-retired and the new TPE won't be added.
Despite earning 29 more TPE per season and starting with 590 more TPE, Fyodorovich ends up with about the same amount of TPE as Alex D. will. After doing some math, raven determined that the most TPE one can possibly earn in a season is 198.
7x weekly training = 35
7x Activity Check = 14
Equipment = 32
4x PT = 12
4x Trivia = 16
Fantasy = 5
13 x prediction = 39
Mock draft = 11
Wiki update = 5
Ultimus week = 10
Play off prediction = 5
Season prediction = 14
total: 198 TPE
For the sake of this article, we'll round it 200. Let's see what would've happened if Vladimir had 200 TPE added per season.
Even becoming a perfect max earner doesn't get him into his 14th season. He needs to have 150 TPE minimum to make it, which he'd be 40 short. Now let's try a different player. Kazimir Oles had the highest ever TPE Peak with 1472. Let's assume he earned 200 TPE every season after regression.
So even having the highest TPE peak in NSFL history isn't enough. Oles still ends up with 1 more TPE than Vladimir after the S14 regression. How about we try creating the perfect earner. This player (who we'll aptly name Max Earner) has earned 200 TPE every season since their DSFL days. So 200 x 8, plus 50 since all players start with 50 TPE, is 1650. Let's see if Max Earner can make it to his 14th season.
You can't even be a max earner and make it to your 14th season! I've been told that to play for a long time you need to earn a lot of TPE, but from what I've found that isn't the case at all. I can earn 2/3 the amount of TPE and start with under less than half the TPE than the max earners and still play for the same amount of time. In fact, you'll need an astronomical amount of TPE to make it to your 14th season.
I can assure you my math is right. I've triple checked it. 4499 TPE is the MINIMUM peak you must be at to make it to your 14th season. And that's not even enough to play in your 15th season, the last season allowed in the rulebook! For that, you'll need to get to an impossible 24339 TPE peak!
I'm not here to bash regression. I've already said that it's good that we have it, and what we have now does it's job. But there's something wrong if it takes over 3000 more TPE to play for one season longer than a half-earner. What about the "If you earn more, you play longer" reasoning? I agree with that reasoning by the way. Gimmy Jaroppolo was auto-retired because his user never updated him. That shouldn't be rewarded (In fact I think 7 seasons is too long for an inactive player to be in the league. I believe it should be closer to 3 seasons). I also think Fyodorovich should've been able to play for 15 seasons because his user was among the most active ever. And while I doubt HO will ever address this "issue" since no one is getting an advantage over it (you try earning 4499 TPE), I want to propose a couple solutions that will allow some to play for 15 seasons, but only if they are among the most earning players.
Solution 1: Lower the threshold to 80 TPE
EDIT: Some have pointed out that players can't be sent back down to the DSFL, so this solution is ultimately unviable.
Currently, players are auto-retired when they go below 150 TPE. That is still a capable player, especially in the DSFL. Such a high threshold prevents max earners who otherwise would've been able to get back to 300+ TPE from playing.
An 80 TPE threshold would've allowed Fyodorovich to play one more season while also preventing me from doing the same. Although this solution isn't enough to get our hypothetical player Max Earner to his 15th season, and if I decided to start earning 180 TPE per season, I'd also be able to play until my 14th. So while we've proven that there is a way to allow for more seasons to be played, it's still flawed in the sense that a semi-active user can play for as long as a max earner. This brings me to my second solution:
Solution 2: Lower S14 and S15's regression to 60%, S13's regression to 55%, and increase S10 and 11's regression by 5%.
In the charts above, we see that it's the regression into S14 that's putting even the most active players under the 150 threshold. This solution reduces the brutality of the last 3 regressions and increases the loss in seasons 10 and 11. This will ensure that the max earners will play longer.
This is the only solution I've been able to devise that makes 15 seasons possible. Vladimir and Kazimir still only play 1 more season, but our hypothetical plays 2 more. My player earning 180 TPE also gets to another season, however such a scenario is unlikely to happen since semi-active users don't typically come back and earn so much TPE. I also don't want to propose a solution to change the regression rate depending on a player's TPE peak or dramatically increase the value tasks are to make 24339 TPE possible. Thus, I believe this solution to be the best possible "fix" since you can realistically make it to 15 seasons, but it'd be very hard to.
The rules allow for 15 seasons, so I think we need to fix the way regression is done so that max earners can actually play for that long. Like many others, I think "If you earn more, you play longer".
I told the Portland Pythons before the S14 DSFL draft and a few undisclosed NSFL teams before the S15 NSFL Draft that it was my goal to play 15 seasons. Perhaps that is every new player's goal. I realize now, however, that it was naive of me to say. 15 seasons would be more than enough for me to get that XP record and more, undoubtedly. But there's a reason no one in the history of this league has played for that long before. However I'm a bad example to use at this point. I've gone inactive multiple times in my career, and I am in no way a max earner. Thus the door to 15 seasons was closed to me quite early in my career (assuming it's even possible to crack 15 seasons). Instead I will tell you the story of Vladimir Fyodorovich, and why like all other max earners, was auto-retired after his 13th season.
Vladimir was drafted by the San Antonio Marshals in the S6 DSFL Draft. A cornerback at the time, he won that season's DBotY, DPotY, won the Ultimini, and was selected to the DSFL Pro Bowl. It's important to point this out because the countdown to regression doesn't begin until a player is drafted by an NSFL team. So, in a way, Fyodorovich did play for 14 seasons, but that's not the point. The point is that he played for 13 seasons in the NSFL, and won a whole lot of accolades for his performances. After his incredible season in the DSFL, Vladimir was drafted by the Orange County Otters, where he won DRotY (shared with Yeti player Desta Danger), and made it to Ultimus VII (the only Ultimus Orange County has lost so far). That offseason, a trade between the Otters and the Secondline sent Fyodorovich and that year's first round pick to New Orleans, in exchange for Jaylon Broxton, speculadora's player at the time. With the hindsight of today, I'd argue this trade was a win for both teams. Vladimir and the Secondline would go on to play in the next four Ultimus Bowls, going 2-2. After season 10, he changed his position to WR and was selected to the Pro Bowl every year afterwards up until his retirement, and won more positional awards in that time.
This is an example of a Hall of Fame career. Fyodorovich's user, majesiu, was a max earner through all of it, reaching a peak of 1363 TPE, which is currently 12th all-time. That's just about 164 TPE earned per season (counting the one DSFL season). However, he was auto-retired after his 13th season. I've already done the math to show that my player will also be retired after that long. How is it possible for an under 700 TPE kicker to play for as long as a max earner?
It's because the regression system is inherently flawed.
Let's assume Vladimir earned 164 TPE every season after regression, and my player will earn 135 TPE every season. This TPE will be added to the total after that offseason's regression. In other words, the prior season's TPE amount will be regressed, and then the average TPE will be added to it and put into the next season's row. If, however, the regressed TPE goes below 150, the player will be auto-retired and the new TPE won't be added.
Despite earning 29 more TPE per season and starting with 590 more TPE, Fyodorovich ends up with about the same amount of TPE as Alex D. will. After doing some math, raven determined that the most TPE one can possibly earn in a season is 198.
7x weekly training = 35
7x Activity Check = 14
Equipment = 32
4x PT = 12
4x Trivia = 16
Fantasy = 5
13 x prediction = 39
Mock draft = 11
Wiki update = 5
Ultimus week = 10
Play off prediction = 5
Season prediction = 14
total: 198 TPE
For the sake of this article, we'll round it 200. Let's see what would've happened if Vladimir had 200 TPE added per season.
Even becoming a perfect max earner doesn't get him into his 14th season. He needs to have 150 TPE minimum to make it, which he'd be 40 short. Now let's try a different player. Kazimir Oles had the highest ever TPE Peak with 1472. Let's assume he earned 200 TPE every season after regression.
So even having the highest TPE peak in NSFL history isn't enough. Oles still ends up with 1 more TPE than Vladimir after the S14 regression. How about we try creating the perfect earner. This player (who we'll aptly name Max Earner) has earned 200 TPE every season since their DSFL days. So 200 x 8, plus 50 since all players start with 50 TPE, is 1650. Let's see if Max Earner can make it to his 14th season.
You can't even be a max earner and make it to your 14th season! I've been told that to play for a long time you need to earn a lot of TPE, but from what I've found that isn't the case at all. I can earn 2/3 the amount of TPE and start with under less than half the TPE than the max earners and still play for the same amount of time. In fact, you'll need an astronomical amount of TPE to make it to your 14th season.
I can assure you my math is right. I've triple checked it. 4499 TPE is the MINIMUM peak you must be at to make it to your 14th season. And that's not even enough to play in your 15th season, the last season allowed in the rulebook! For that, you'll need to get to an impossible 24339 TPE peak!
I'm not here to bash regression. I've already said that it's good that we have it, and what we have now does it's job. But there's something wrong if it takes over 3000 more TPE to play for one season longer than a half-earner. What about the "If you earn more, you play longer" reasoning? I agree with that reasoning by the way. Gimmy Jaroppolo was auto-retired because his user never updated him. That shouldn't be rewarded (In fact I think 7 seasons is too long for an inactive player to be in the league. I believe it should be closer to 3 seasons). I also think Fyodorovich should've been able to play for 15 seasons because his user was among the most active ever. And while I doubt HO will ever address this "issue" since no one is getting an advantage over it (you try earning 4499 TPE), I want to propose a couple solutions that will allow some to play for 15 seasons, but only if they are among the most earning players.
Solution 1: Lower the threshold to 80 TPE
EDIT: Some have pointed out that players can't be sent back down to the DSFL, so this solution is ultimately unviable.
Currently, players are auto-retired when they go below 150 TPE. That is still a capable player, especially in the DSFL. Such a high threshold prevents max earners who otherwise would've been able to get back to 300+ TPE from playing.
An 80 TPE threshold would've allowed Fyodorovich to play one more season while also preventing me from doing the same. Although this solution isn't enough to get our hypothetical player Max Earner to his 15th season, and if I decided to start earning 180 TPE per season, I'd also be able to play until my 14th. So while we've proven that there is a way to allow for more seasons to be played, it's still flawed in the sense that a semi-active user can play for as long as a max earner. This brings me to my second solution:
Solution 2: Lower S14 and S15's regression to 60%, S13's regression to 55%, and increase S10 and 11's regression by 5%.
In the charts above, we see that it's the regression into S14 that's putting even the most active players under the 150 threshold. This solution reduces the brutality of the last 3 regressions and increases the loss in seasons 10 and 11. This will ensure that the max earners will play longer.
This is the only solution I've been able to devise that makes 15 seasons possible. Vladimir and Kazimir still only play 1 more season, but our hypothetical plays 2 more. My player earning 180 TPE also gets to another season, however such a scenario is unlikely to happen since semi-active users don't typically come back and earn so much TPE. I also don't want to propose a solution to change the regression rate depending on a player's TPE peak or dramatically increase the value tasks are to make 24339 TPE possible. Thus, I believe this solution to be the best possible "fix" since you can realistically make it to 15 seasons, but it'd be very hard to.
The rules allow for 15 seasons, so I think we need to fix the way regression is done so that max earners can actually play for that long. Like many others, I think "If you earn more, you play longer".
Alex Dasistwirklichseinnachname || K || Orange County Otters || 382 TPE
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