The season 2 draft is almost here and the number of prospects that have decided to declare for this draft is impressive and encouraging for the future of the league. GMs will have to work hard at sorting out which players have already had success in the league and which ones have the most potential to do well. In my article last week, "Defense Wins Championships" (http://nsfl.jcink.net/index.php?showtopic=2050) , I made a strong case for considering the potential of building an all world defense rather than trying to put together a versatile offense by showing how the Outlaws championship success on defense was just as important, if not more so, than what they were able to accomplish with their offense.
But, now I want to address what may be the biggest problem with this incoming draft class. Despite over 20 offensive lineman declaring for the draft so far, with potentially more to come before the beginning of the season, there are still not enough linemen to fill all of the starting spots on every roster. In addition, even though some of these players are available for taking, not all of them are active. While having an inactive lineman on your team is certainly more reliable than having to fill spots with bots, despite the success of a certain Bigboy last season, there is a major talent gap that is going to begin to arise between defensive fronts and offensive lines. Inactive linemen don't gain TPE, they don't have the potential to get any better, but there also is no way to handle the situation of having an inactive lineman. At other positions, there is a surplus of talent in the league. If someone ends up being inactive, more than likely there is either an active player already on your roster ready to overtake them at some point or a player that can be picked up or traded for. And, although they may start behind, they have the potential to catch up.
This is not the case at the lineman position. If you have a good, active lineman, you probably should not give them up at any cost because forget talking about replacement level, the only option is filling the position with a player worse than any inactive starting player. This creates a bit of a dilemma going forward because an offense needs a good line, at least compared to the defense going against it, to have any success. If the line can't continue to improve and keep up with defensive players constantly getting faster and stronger, then offenses are going to be rendered completely ineffective. It's likely that games are going to come down to grindfests with defensive scores becoming the big plays that lead to victory and field position to merely get into field goal range becoming ever more critical.
Maybe I'm being hyperbolic, but maybe this is something that needs to be considered going forward. The problem is that playing as an offensive lineman is just not sexy. Now don't misunderstand me, if you've ever seen Angus Winchester practicing shirtless at training camp you know the man is a physical specimen. But, linemen don't accumulate the kinds of stats and scoring that you find at other positions that make it as fun to brag about. The best lineman are in it for the team and because they appreciate the craft. They take pride in helping to open a lane for their running back to make a big gain or giving the QB had a clean pocket. They know the impact that they have on their team's success and they don't just need some gaudy statistics like receptions or tackles to prop themselves up or show how much of an impact they are having on the game. They are the true workhorses of the sport.
Going forward the league needs to find a way to get more people interested in playing as offensive lineman tor sort out the shortage at the position as it currently is. Are linemen bots going to have to be tweaked to keep up with an increase in overall average league TPE if there aren't enough starting linemen to go around? Is there a way to get casual linemen players more interested in their role? Certainly as the free agent market becomes more alive in future seasons, the best linemen are likely to command huge contracts because of the supply and demand at the position. This could make it difficult for teams to even pay for an offense worth protecting. It's for certain that GMs are aware of this issue. And it seems most people in general are becoming more and more aware of this problem as well as most mock drafters have half of the picks in the first round of this draft pegged as offensive linemen. But, it's not something that teams can fix with just one pick.
Locking down a solid offensive line for the long term may end up being one of the most critical goals for a GM to accomplish before offensive lineman start to set the free agent market as defenses start to roll over patchwork offensive lines. Using @Deusolis's OL rankings, which you can find here: http://nsfl.jcink.net/index.php?showtopic=1887, and which I tend to agree strongly with, we can see what kind of impact offensive lines have had on the production of their respective offense. In terms of the top two lines, the Sabercats and Otters, there is a clear correlation between the talent of the line and how well the pocket was protected. Each of these teams only gave up 28 sacks and the next best team, the Baltimore Hawks gave up 39. That's almost one more sack per game over the season. So, having a strong offensive line certainly means your team will be able to protect your QB more which makes sense, but the numbers show that the good offensive lines gave a significant advantage in this respect. In terms of passing yards and ratings, there was not as clear a distinction between the teams on the season, and these statistics are much more dependent on the talent of the QB. In terms of the running game, the Otters had far and away the best rushing attack on the season, with the highest YPC average of any team and being one of only two teams to have over 4.0 YPC. However, now looking at the SaberCats, we see that this team struggled in the run game with a YPC in the bottom half of the league. So while they excelled in pass protection, the SaberCats couldn't find the same success in the running game. Again, a statistic like YPC certainly is weighted somewhat by the talent at running back, of which the Otters have two very good ones. But, unless you have the type of running back that can create for themselves, any back is going to need someone to open holes for them. Usually a very bad running back can be successful behind a good offensive line, but even an all pro running back will struggle to be successful behind a line made of metaphorical string and paper clips.
So, what this analysis shows us is that having a strong line gave a clear benefit in terms of pass protection with the statistics to prove it, but in other facets of the offense we haven't seen an offensive line that can really put the entire team on their back in the trenches and carry them to victory. We have yet to see just how good a team can be when the offensive line works together as a unit and is firing on all cylinders. Clearly the Otters were the closest team to being able to do so this season and it was impressive considering the talent pool at offensive linemen in general. But, even this stellar offensive line was absolutely eviscerated by an elite Outlaws defense in the playoffs. And the reason for it is this: unlike any other unit in the game if there is a weak link on the offensive line, it can all fall apart very quickly. All it takes is the defense moving a few chess pieces around and running the right scheme to completely blow it up. We have seem some really nice pairings on offensive lines such as what the Orange County Otters had with Winchester, Clegane and company, but I think that we aren't even close to yet seeing the potential of an offense with a truly competent offensive line. Is it something we will be treated to here in season 2? With the lack of linemen that we have, it still seems unlikely. And so, GMs strongly need to consider going hard for offensive linemen in this draft no matter how tempting other positions may be.
Heading into season 2, what's going to be on the line for your team? Will it be a quintet of destructive tanks or a slapped together jalopy made of inactives and Zobot Bigboys?
((Word Count: 1503, ready for grading))
Graded
But, now I want to address what may be the biggest problem with this incoming draft class. Despite over 20 offensive lineman declaring for the draft so far, with potentially more to come before the beginning of the season, there are still not enough linemen to fill all of the starting spots on every roster. In addition, even though some of these players are available for taking, not all of them are active. While having an inactive lineman on your team is certainly more reliable than having to fill spots with bots, despite the success of a certain Bigboy last season, there is a major talent gap that is going to begin to arise between defensive fronts and offensive lines. Inactive linemen don't gain TPE, they don't have the potential to get any better, but there also is no way to handle the situation of having an inactive lineman. At other positions, there is a surplus of talent in the league. If someone ends up being inactive, more than likely there is either an active player already on your roster ready to overtake them at some point or a player that can be picked up or traded for. And, although they may start behind, they have the potential to catch up.
This is not the case at the lineman position. If you have a good, active lineman, you probably should not give them up at any cost because forget talking about replacement level, the only option is filling the position with a player worse than any inactive starting player. This creates a bit of a dilemma going forward because an offense needs a good line, at least compared to the defense going against it, to have any success. If the line can't continue to improve and keep up with defensive players constantly getting faster and stronger, then offenses are going to be rendered completely ineffective. It's likely that games are going to come down to grindfests with defensive scores becoming the big plays that lead to victory and field position to merely get into field goal range becoming ever more critical.
Maybe I'm being hyperbolic, but maybe this is something that needs to be considered going forward. The problem is that playing as an offensive lineman is just not sexy. Now don't misunderstand me, if you've ever seen Angus Winchester practicing shirtless at training camp you know the man is a physical specimen. But, linemen don't accumulate the kinds of stats and scoring that you find at other positions that make it as fun to brag about. The best lineman are in it for the team and because they appreciate the craft. They take pride in helping to open a lane for their running back to make a big gain or giving the QB had a clean pocket. They know the impact that they have on their team's success and they don't just need some gaudy statistics like receptions or tackles to prop themselves up or show how much of an impact they are having on the game. They are the true workhorses of the sport.
Going forward the league needs to find a way to get more people interested in playing as offensive lineman tor sort out the shortage at the position as it currently is. Are linemen bots going to have to be tweaked to keep up with an increase in overall average league TPE if there aren't enough starting linemen to go around? Is there a way to get casual linemen players more interested in their role? Certainly as the free agent market becomes more alive in future seasons, the best linemen are likely to command huge contracts because of the supply and demand at the position. This could make it difficult for teams to even pay for an offense worth protecting. It's for certain that GMs are aware of this issue. And it seems most people in general are becoming more and more aware of this problem as well as most mock drafters have half of the picks in the first round of this draft pegged as offensive linemen. But, it's not something that teams can fix with just one pick.
Locking down a solid offensive line for the long term may end up being one of the most critical goals for a GM to accomplish before offensive lineman start to set the free agent market as defenses start to roll over patchwork offensive lines. Using @Deusolis's OL rankings, which you can find here: http://nsfl.jcink.net/index.php?showtopic=1887, and which I tend to agree strongly with, we can see what kind of impact offensive lines have had on the production of their respective offense. In terms of the top two lines, the Sabercats and Otters, there is a clear correlation between the talent of the line and how well the pocket was protected. Each of these teams only gave up 28 sacks and the next best team, the Baltimore Hawks gave up 39. That's almost one more sack per game over the season. So, having a strong offensive line certainly means your team will be able to protect your QB more which makes sense, but the numbers show that the good offensive lines gave a significant advantage in this respect. In terms of passing yards and ratings, there was not as clear a distinction between the teams on the season, and these statistics are much more dependent on the talent of the QB. In terms of the running game, the Otters had far and away the best rushing attack on the season, with the highest YPC average of any team and being one of only two teams to have over 4.0 YPC. However, now looking at the SaberCats, we see that this team struggled in the run game with a YPC in the bottom half of the league. So while they excelled in pass protection, the SaberCats couldn't find the same success in the running game. Again, a statistic like YPC certainly is weighted somewhat by the talent at running back, of which the Otters have two very good ones. But, unless you have the type of running back that can create for themselves, any back is going to need someone to open holes for them. Usually a very bad running back can be successful behind a good offensive line, but even an all pro running back will struggle to be successful behind a line made of metaphorical string and paper clips.
So, what this analysis shows us is that having a strong line gave a clear benefit in terms of pass protection with the statistics to prove it, but in other facets of the offense we haven't seen an offensive line that can really put the entire team on their back in the trenches and carry them to victory. We have yet to see just how good a team can be when the offensive line works together as a unit and is firing on all cylinders. Clearly the Otters were the closest team to being able to do so this season and it was impressive considering the talent pool at offensive linemen in general. But, even this stellar offensive line was absolutely eviscerated by an elite Outlaws defense in the playoffs. And the reason for it is this: unlike any other unit in the game if there is a weak link on the offensive line, it can all fall apart very quickly. All it takes is the defense moving a few chess pieces around and running the right scheme to completely blow it up. We have seem some really nice pairings on offensive lines such as what the Orange County Otters had with Winchester, Clegane and company, but I think that we aren't even close to yet seeing the potential of an offense with a truly competent offensive line. Is it something we will be treated to here in season 2? With the lack of linemen that we have, it still seems unlikely. And so, GMs strongly need to consider going hard for offensive linemen in this draft no matter how tempting other positions may be.
Heading into season 2, what's going to be on the line for your team? Will it be a quintet of destructive tanks or a slapped together jalopy made of inactives and Zobot Bigboys?
((Word Count: 1503, ready for grading))
Graded
[OPTION]===========================================
[OPTION]Regular Season Stats
[OPTION](S2) 14 Games Played
[OPTION](S3) 14 Games Played
[OPTION](S4) 14 Games Played
[OPTION](S5) 14 Games Played
[OPTION](S6) 14 Games Played
[OPTION](S7) 14 Games Played
[OPTION](S8) 14 Games Played
[OPTION]===========================================
[OPTION]Playoff Stats
[OPTION] 27839
[OPTION]===========================================
[OPTION]Trophy Case/Achievements:
[OPTION]Most Likely to Break the Team Bench When Sitting Down
[OPTION]Pumpkin Chuckin' Rally 2017 Semifinalist
[OPTION]Most Likely to Get Traded in S8 (T-1st)
[OPTION]Ultimus Champion S7, S8