*Who's going where? A S23 draft pseudo-analysis

[Thor]

Code:

1,963 words, ready to grade

I noticed today that the mock drafts being put out this season are nowhere near the level of consensus that we saw last season - and decided that I would have a bit of a crack at working out where some of the top prospects this season could end up. I won't be going into how I came to these conclusions, because I'd like to try see how the results come out first to see if I want to try again in the future.

I'm going to start out by listing the players that are at the top of the TPE leaderboards and the potential landing spots based on some research I've conducted - then I'm going to put together a first round mock draft using these landing spots as a guide. Keep in mind I am operating off my aforementioned methodology and a little bit of bias opinion here and there are definitely other factors which I haven't taken into account as much if at all.

While I was able to whittle down many players to just a few teams I'm expecting they'll go to - if not one - I had significant difficulties gaining confidence in my picks with the players I believe will be the first few players to be picked in the draft. I couldn't shake this from my methodology and that led to me having great difficulty narrowing down what I expect are the first 3-5 picks, I suspect that we may even have a trade. Hopefully I've hit on a few though!

#1. Greedy Sly
You guys knew Sly would feature in here. But unfortunately the case here is, I have no idea where he's going. While the Yeti have bigger needs than Safety, I can't see Sly going anywhere but #1 overall - which leads me to believe there could be a trade from a Safety needy team to come up and get him, Arizona seems like a fit at first glance with extra draft capital, a young team and a need for another safety however, I'm going to throw a wild one out there though and say SJS trades their first rounder, second rounder and probably a 1st/2nd next season to kill two birds with one stone, taking the first pick from the Yeti as well as the last pick of the second round, allowing them to take their GM with the latest possible pick. Do SJS need a safety? I honestly have no idea, but by my metrics they're interested.

#2. Son Goku
Another very tough one by my research, Goku could land anywhere - but my notes came up with the most likely result being Philadelphia. Again, no idea what their need is there and whether there's a chance for Goku to make it all the way down to 5 - but given how Defensive Ends tend to be valued I could see there being a possibility.

#3. Tyler Montain
One of the players I'll have trouble assigning a team to, as with the previous two I am taking shots in the dark on, I'm going to take another shot at it again here. Montain is someone that I think NOLA wants. The only issue here is having the capital to make a trade into a pick early enough to get him, given that they don't have a first round pick and their second is a GM auto-pick. If NOLA can't get there, I could also see Baltimore going for him early.

#4. Heinrich Kackpoo
This is one more pick I just can't pin down. It's obvious a lot of the league see him going to Colorado at the top of the first, but I am just not sure given the talent of Linebackers available in this draft that they're in that big of a need to go for one so early. We often see the first round having some surprise picks due to LR presence and I really feel like the #1 pick is going to look for that. That's not to say Kackpoo isn't a good LR presence or anything of the sort, but I can forsee the Yeti getting similar value from a linebacker at #12 overall in Woods or McCringleberry. My guess on this player is that he's still going early, perhaps to a traded down pick from the yeti, or stolen by Baltimore after being left on the board at #1oa. Colorado is still my lead suspect for this player but I'm not confident in saying at #1oa

#5 Kai Sakura
Unfortunately for Sakura, although he comes in right near the top of the TPE rankings, offense isn't seen to have the same value as defense in the draft. I have Sakura ending up with Chicago in the second if Yeti leave him on the board at 12.

#6 DB Jadakiss
I can't pick this one specifically, but I'm saying early again and due to that and a bit off process of elimination - with a lack of confidence I'm going with Arizona at #4 for Jadakiss.

#7 Tycker Om
While Tycker is the second defensive end in TPE following behind Montain, I can see him going to Sarasota with one of their two back to back picks in the first. They lost Franchet to retirement and need a replacement - with Montain off the board in the first few, Om ends up with the Sailfish.

#8 L’Carpetron Dookmarriot
An early run on Safeties and Defensive Backs is hardly a new trend and I suspect we will see it again with up to 4 safeties and potentially a CB or two off the board in the first. Dookmarriot and one other (yet to be named) share the honour in my books of being pick 10/11. Yellowknife and Orange County seem the two most likely landing places for Dookmarriot, and whichever doesn't get him may get the other safety.

#9 Ray Ray Jackson
Another for defense and another Defensive Back, I see Honolulu taking the first/second corner off the board in this draft as the trend of retirements affected both expansion teams, and Jackson makes sense to me as being the one they will take.

#10 Hingle McCringleberry
Very strangely this was a pick I found it hard to discern, as though his TPE totals place him lower - it was difficult to distinguish his analysis from the top few players in the draft. He's a possibility to sneak up the boards to a spot higher than his TPE ranking here, to whom? I'll have to figure that before I get to writing the mock at the end here.

#11 Tychondrious Hood
Unfortunately the second Wide Receiver on the TPE rankings is likely also going to have to wait for the second. While there's a chance a wideout could go earlier, I expect Yeti and/or Chicago will have a decision to make early in the second (or late in the first) as to which of the top options they'll take. The other may go right afterwards and I suspect that could be Hood. I can't pick which team to at the time of writing though.

#12 Luca Scabbia
I have a strong suspicion that this is another player New Orleans wants, and if the trend of picking continues through the second - I could see our third receiver slipping far enough to be picked up by them - assuming they don't trade away their later picks (aside from the auto-gm second rounder) as capital to move into the first.

#13 Tyrone Woods
A challenging pick to narrow down, while Orange County will be looking for a safety at 11 if they aren't happy with what's left on the board they could go for a linebacker instead and if that's the case, I'd expect him to go off the board here. Otherwise if he makes it to Chicago they may be forced to go for defense in the second round before assessing the offence.

#14 Eugene Smoothie
Ah we've reached the "other safety" I mentioned earlier, Smoothie is who I could see Yellowknife or Orange County potentially picking up as a preference over, or alternative to Dookmarriot, otherwise he'll likely slide into the second.

#15 Mikel Van Perkins
If we see Honolulu take a CB at #3, I could see Sarasota going early to get one for themselves with one of their back to back picks. They may even go with Van Perkins if Honolulu don't, he could end up the first corner off the board. I believe Sarasota will snap up Van Perkins in this draft though.

#16 Datsum Phatbawls
Contrary to what some mocks may think I expect we won't see an early kicker selection in this draft. If they have expressed desire to swap positions it's a possibility, but it's too in doubt for me to give a specific team for a kicker, regardless of their TPE - sorry Phatbawls.

#17 Nicolas Ayers
I think we are into the second round at this point, and Ayers has to be in consideration for Arizona in their position. I think they'll be left tossing up between Ayers and one other running back who narrowly makes the cutoff for my list in this one.

#18 Videl San
Sorry Valor, despite making an article on how to improve your draft stock you seem to have missed the mark on this one - I don't have a team selection as I suspect Videl-San will fall to a team in need of receiver in the 3rd round.

#19 Raphael d'Alcott
In a stacked safety class, safety #5 off the board sneaks into the top 20 (not including GM autopicks) with 215 TPE, while he may be forced to wait a little longer I wouldn't be surprised to see him end up with a team late in the second round, if Orange County take a linebacker at 11 and Smoothie is off the board, d'Alcott could end up there - the Yeti in the second also seems like a decent pick to me - but im not confident on this pick.

#20 Joe Petrongolo
With the last place in this list Petrongolo becomes the "other Running Back" Arizona will consider in the second round. It's hard to say who will be chosen, Petrongolo has a connection to Arizona through Portland so that could push him over the line. If Arizona go for Ayers, I could see Petrongolo ending up in Sarasota or San Jose as well.

A few Honorable mentions I have suspicions that teams have considered in the first couple of rounds l.
Howlett - Chicago
Crooks - Arizona
King - Sarasota or San Jose
Wheezer - Sarasota or Orflange County
Richards - Chicago

Mock Draft:
1: via via
Greedy Sly
2: Tyler Montain
3: Ray Ray Jackson
4: DB Jadakiss
5: Son Goku
6: via Heinrich Kackpoo
7: Tycker Om
8: Mikel Van Perkins
9: Hingle McCringleberry
10: L'Carpetron Dookmarriot
11: Eugene Smoothie (Maybe Tyron Woods?)
12: Kai Sakura


Alternate Mock Draft (Arizona trade up):
1: via via
Greedy Sly
2: Tyler Montain
3: Ray Ray Jackson
4: via Heinrich Kackpoo
5: Son Goku
6: DB Jadakiss
7: Tycker Om
8: Mikel Van Perkins
9: Hingle McCringleberry
10: L'Carpetron Dookmarriot
11: Eugene Smoothie (Maybe Tyron Woods?)
12: Kai Sakura


At the end of the day, this is just another meaningless mock draft from someone who doesn't know what's happening and hasn't really got any confirmed basis to go off, but we'll see come draft day if I got a few right and see how things went!

Best of luck to all involved.

[DarknessRising]

This season is by far alot more interesting come draft day. Whilst the massive S22 draft class has filled alot of positional needs, the holes that are opening can make alot more picks based on need rather than TPE or user. I expect the average mock to be definitely lower than last year as a result but this was a good read and some good insight, well done.