I decided to look back at the Season 1 predictions thread to see how accurate people were. I went through and added each vote by hand, so I apologize if I made any mistakes, but I think the data should be mostly accurate.
The general consensus on the Yeti was that they would be a playoff team as they received more first place votes and second place votes than third place votes. However, people were not as high on the Yeti as they should have been since the consensus from the voting leaned more towards the Yeti finishing in second place rather than first place.
The Wraiths were a very popular preseason pick as they received the least amount of third place votes out of any NSFC team. Not only were the Wraiths expected to be a playoff team, but they also received the most first place votes out of any NFSC. The Wraiths were the clear preseason favorite to win the NSFC. The consensus nearly was correct as the Wraiths led the NSFC standings after Week 13, but the Wraiths' Week 14 loss caused them to fall to second place.
The Hawks were the most accurately predicted team in the season predictions. The most popular prediction for the Hawks was a third place finish, which was on point as they ended up finishing in third place. Many people reconsidered their predictions after the Hawks' 4-0 preseason finish, but they returned to expectations once the regular season began and they finished with the worst record in the NSFC by a 4 game margin.
It's safe to say that the preseason consensus on the Outlaws was WAY off. The eventual champions were tied with the Hawks for the highest amount of third place votes. The Outlaws received more third place votes than first and second place votes combined. Once the season began, the Outlaws proved everybody wrong as they went on to finish as both the regular season champions and the Ultimus trophy winners. The Outlaws probably deserve to brag for a little while considering how low people were on them in the preseason.
The Otters were the most popular team in the preseason predictions. The Otters received 59 first place votes, which was more votes than any other team received in any placing. Likewise, their 10 third place votes were less votes than any other team received in any placing. The faith in the Otters was somewhat well placed as they tied for the best record in the league, however they failed to finish first place in the ASFC since their struggles against the Outlaws cost them the tiebreaker.
People were hesitant about the Sabercats as they tied the Hawks for the least amount of first place votes. However, it appears people were actually still too high on the Sabercats as a majority of their votes had them finishing in second place. The Sabercats struggled heavily from the beginning of the season and never came close to competing with the Outlaws or the Otters for the ASFC's second place spot.
The consensus for regular season champion is similar to the predictions for regular season placements. The Wraiths and the Otters were big favorites with the Otters receiving the most votes by a comfortable margin. Although neither favorite finished as the regular season champion, they were good guesses as the Otters tied the Outlaws for the league's best record and the Wraiths finished just one game behind the Outlaws and Otters. The actual regular season champion, the Outlaws, were tied for the second least amount of votes in the preseason predictions.
The predictions for the NSFC champion were pretty similar to the first place predictions. The Wraiths were the favorites, then the Yeti, then the Hawks receiving the least amount of votes. People were correct about the Yeti and the Wraiths being the two teams most likely to win the NSFC, however it was the Yeti rather than the favored Wraiths who won the championship game.
The Otters were favored to win the ASFC just as they were favored to win first place in the standings. The Sabercats received the second most votes to win the ASFC. An unusual trend was the large amount of people who had the Sabercats finishing in second place yet winning the conference. Only 18 people picked the Sabercats to finish in first place, yet 33 people chose for the Sabercats to win the ASFC. Once again, the Outlaws were underrated as they received less votes to win their conference than any other team in the NSFL.
The predictions for the Ultimus Trophy winner were pretty similar to the predictions for the regular season champion, however they were more spread out. An interesting trend is how many people picked the Outlaws to win the Ultimus Trophy in comparison to the number of people who picked them to win their conference. 83% of people who picked the Outlaws to win their conference picked for them to win the championship. The next highest percentage was for the Otters who were picked to win the Ultimus Trophy by 56% of people who had them in the championship game. It appears that most of the people who picked the Outlaws as ASFC champions had a lot of faith in them as they picked for them to win the championship at very high rates.
So how accurate were the predictions? Here is the prediction made based on the consensus choices:
Standing Predictions
NSFC
1.
2.
-----
3.
ASFC
1.
2.
-----
3.
Trophy Predictions
Regular Season Champion:
NSFC Champion:
ASFC Champion:
League Champion Winner:
If somebody submitted these consensus predictions, they would have received 1 TPE with the Hawks in third place being the only correct prediction. So why were the Season 1 predictions so inaccurate? I have a few theories. The first issue is that this was the first season of the NSFL. At the time when these predictions were made, none of the NSFL teams had played a single game yet. This made it hard for people to make good predictions because there was no easy way to discern which teams were good and which teams were not. Without any precedent of past performance, most people were simply guessing which teams would be good. A lot of people probably also based their predictions off of who other people thought would be good. This issue should naturally lead to better predictions in Season 2 because people will be able to base their predictions off of team performances from Season 1 and have a better idea of which teams are good. Another issue for this season’s predictions is randomness. Considering that the league recently started, there is not much differentiation between player rankings. Since players are rated so closely together early on, the results are somewhat random at this point in the league. Over a few seasons, we should see certain players and teams differentiate themselves as elite and there should be more predictable trends in the results. Other factors that impacted the predictions will always exist. A big example of this is homerism. Almost everybody picked their own team to win the Ultimus trophy. While people may grow more reserved in the future, it is likely people will always overrate their own team rather than making completely unbiased rankings. Looking back, Season 1 was full of surprises in comparison to the predictions made at the beginning of the season.
The general consensus on the Yeti was that they would be a playoff team as they received more first place votes and second place votes than third place votes. However, people were not as high on the Yeti as they should have been since the consensus from the voting leaned more towards the Yeti finishing in second place rather than first place.
The Wraiths were a very popular preseason pick as they received the least amount of third place votes out of any NSFC team. Not only were the Wraiths expected to be a playoff team, but they also received the most first place votes out of any NFSC. The Wraiths were the clear preseason favorite to win the NSFC. The consensus nearly was correct as the Wraiths led the NSFC standings after Week 13, but the Wraiths' Week 14 loss caused them to fall to second place.
The Hawks were the most accurately predicted team in the season predictions. The most popular prediction for the Hawks was a third place finish, which was on point as they ended up finishing in third place. Many people reconsidered their predictions after the Hawks' 4-0 preseason finish, but they returned to expectations once the regular season began and they finished with the worst record in the NSFC by a 4 game margin.
It's safe to say that the preseason consensus on the Outlaws was WAY off. The eventual champions were tied with the Hawks for the highest amount of third place votes. The Outlaws received more third place votes than first and second place votes combined. Once the season began, the Outlaws proved everybody wrong as they went on to finish as both the regular season champions and the Ultimus trophy winners. The Outlaws probably deserve to brag for a little while considering how low people were on them in the preseason.
The Otters were the most popular team in the preseason predictions. The Otters received 59 first place votes, which was more votes than any other team received in any placing. Likewise, their 10 third place votes were less votes than any other team received in any placing. The faith in the Otters was somewhat well placed as they tied for the best record in the league, however they failed to finish first place in the ASFC since their struggles against the Outlaws cost them the tiebreaker.
People were hesitant about the Sabercats as they tied the Hawks for the least amount of first place votes. However, it appears people were actually still too high on the Sabercats as a majority of their votes had them finishing in second place. The Sabercats struggled heavily from the beginning of the season and never came close to competing with the Outlaws or the Otters for the ASFC's second place spot.
The consensus for regular season champion is similar to the predictions for regular season placements. The Wraiths and the Otters were big favorites with the Otters receiving the most votes by a comfortable margin. Although neither favorite finished as the regular season champion, they were good guesses as the Otters tied the Outlaws for the league's best record and the Wraiths finished just one game behind the Outlaws and Otters. The actual regular season champion, the Outlaws, were tied for the second least amount of votes in the preseason predictions.
The predictions for the NSFC champion were pretty similar to the first place predictions. The Wraiths were the favorites, then the Yeti, then the Hawks receiving the least amount of votes. People were correct about the Yeti and the Wraiths being the two teams most likely to win the NSFC, however it was the Yeti rather than the favored Wraiths who won the championship game.
The Otters were favored to win the ASFC just as they were favored to win first place in the standings. The Sabercats received the second most votes to win the ASFC. An unusual trend was the large amount of people who had the Sabercats finishing in second place yet winning the conference. Only 18 people picked the Sabercats to finish in first place, yet 33 people chose for the Sabercats to win the ASFC. Once again, the Outlaws were underrated as they received less votes to win their conference than any other team in the NSFL.
The predictions for the Ultimus Trophy winner were pretty similar to the predictions for the regular season champion, however they were more spread out. An interesting trend is how many people picked the Outlaws to win the Ultimus Trophy in comparison to the number of people who picked them to win their conference. 83% of people who picked the Outlaws to win their conference picked for them to win the championship. The next highest percentage was for the Otters who were picked to win the Ultimus Trophy by 56% of people who had them in the championship game. It appears that most of the people who picked the Outlaws as ASFC champions had a lot of faith in them as they picked for them to win the championship at very high rates.
So how accurate were the predictions? Here is the prediction made based on the consensus choices:
Standing Predictions
NSFC
1.
2.
-----
3.
ASFC
1.
2.
-----
3.
Trophy Predictions
Regular Season Champion:
NSFC Champion:
ASFC Champion:
League Champion Winner:
If somebody submitted these consensus predictions, they would have received 1 TPE with the Hawks in third place being the only correct prediction. So why were the Season 1 predictions so inaccurate? I have a few theories. The first issue is that this was the first season of the NSFL. At the time when these predictions were made, none of the NSFL teams had played a single game yet. This made it hard for people to make good predictions because there was no easy way to discern which teams were good and which teams were not. Without any precedent of past performance, most people were simply guessing which teams would be good. A lot of people probably also based their predictions off of who other people thought would be good. This issue should naturally lead to better predictions in Season 2 because people will be able to base their predictions off of team performances from Season 1 and have a better idea of which teams are good. Another issue for this season’s predictions is randomness. Considering that the league recently started, there is not much differentiation between player rankings. Since players are rated so closely together early on, the results are somewhat random at this point in the league. Over a few seasons, we should see certain players and teams differentiate themselves as elite and there should be more predictable trends in the results. Other factors that impacted the predictions will always exist. A big example of this is homerism. Almost everybody picked their own team to win the Ultimus trophy. While people may grow more reserved in the future, it is likely people will always overrate their own team rather than making completely unbiased rankings. Looking back, Season 1 was full of surprises in comparison to the predictions made at the beginning of the season.
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