This time of year is one of the weirder parts of the ISFL experience. Unless you're in a war room there's not much going on, and you're just... waiting. This wait is particularly strange for rookies during the draft process. The scouting messages have dried up, as people who were keen to talk to you before are now flat out ghosting you for fear of leaking anything. You're Schrödinger's draftee - simultaneously drafted and undrafted until that box is opened by the presentation. Being a paradox is mentally taxing, so you've got to fill the time.
This is exactly what mock drafts are for, well, for that and making people you've had very little contact with quite angry. Both ISFL and DSFL mock drafts are notoriously tough because of the lack of information - the people who possess that information are adhering to the no-leaks policy tighter than a submarine door. While that's absolutely brilliant for the user experience, its horrendous for the would-be mock drafter. In short, most mock drafts are destined to be completely and utterly wrong. I'm going to try to embrace that.
Here's the concept:
I'm going to take picks that have been made in the first rounds of mock drafts of other users and explain why I don't think they'll be the pick. My aim is to give picks that are completely wrong. If I'm wrong about being wrong, there's even more wrong to be mad at.
Where draft order has changed via trades or whatever, I'll consider the pick made for that team, changing draft slots. It'll become clearer than that as I go, hopefully. Also, what's the odds that this draft has more correct picks than my actual PT draft will? Sigh.
Disclaimer: All opinions here are based on absolutely no information, as I have no more information than any prospect would. They may not even end up being my actual opinions as I struggle to fill fourteen draft picks and am forced to channel my inner sports radio blowhard.
1) Berlin Fire Salamanders - James Gath (Beefstu409), CB, Minnesota Grey Ducks - From Draft 1
Why it won't happen:
This pick was from an early mock, and its author admitted "being slightly biased" when making this choice. I am in no way disparaging Gath as a player - though he probably wouldn't be at this spot based on his DSFL career alone - or Beefstu409, a user who quickly put himself into the first overall conversation with media showcasing his software.
The problem is twofold: Firstly, other users have done similar with their own impressive software creations, and secondly, I'm just not sure that Berlin's recently formed front office will be buying what Stu is selling. What am I basing that on? Basically nothing. Call it instinct, or blame my magic 8 ball. I would be surprised to see Gath here.
2) Yellowknife Wraiths - Terry Tate (Brane_Chyld), LB, Tijuana Luchadores - From Draft 2 (Originally Pick 6)
Why it won't happen:
They Yellowknife Wraiths are a well run team that are never far from being serious contenders. They clearly know a thing or two about evaluating talent. With this in mind, I found it highly doubtful that they were planning to draft a retired linebacker when they were projected to have the sixth pick. Now they've traded up to the second slot, I'm almost sure that they won't be spending that selection on a retired player.
Sorry about that, the Tate pick is really low hanging fruit for an article like this, and only stood because the author "couldn't be arsed" to change it. I have said this before, but it bears repeating - as a peddler of low effort, high word count media, I respect the shit out of the "can't be arsed" stance.
3) Philadelphia Liberty - Medicinal Toblerone (JuOSu), OL, Myrtle Beach Buccaneers - From Draft 1
Why it won't happen:
Well, here's an easy one. JuOSu is a well-known user and a former GM of the New Orleans Second Line, running a player who is banking all their TPE. This is clearly a move to fill a (possibly undetermined) roster need for a team, and you'd only do it if you were dead set on going to particular team. Assuming that is the case, ISFL GMs are aware of this and won't take Toblerone away from the Second Line.
If Philly were to take Toblerone here, there would almost certainly be a complaint that the "don't be a dick" rule had been breached, with a lengthy process ultimately landing with the appeals committee, who would be obliged to debate the exact definition of "dick". Nobody needs that. Also, it will be interesting to see how New Orleans handles this with their draft picks. Is passing on a player you know will fall to you eventually a "dick" move? I'm not qualified to say.
4) San Jose SaberCats - Dan Foster (Arkz), CB, Portland Pythons - From many PT Mock Drafts
Why it won't happen:
Arkz is a great and highly involved user, and I think he will go in the first round. He gave me all kinds of hell in the awards committee, so I recognise in him a passion for the league that I thoroughly respect. Cornerback is definitely a position San Jose could look at addressing.
Then again, this is the fourth pick of the draft. I haven't done a big board or positional rankings, but if I did I would have three cornerbacks above Foster. The position is absolutely stacked this year. So will the fourth pick be the fourth cornerback selected? I doubt it. Not in a world with Goat Tank. Speaking of which...
5) New York Silverbacks - Goat Tank (Eldorian), DT, Myrtle Beach Buccaneers - From Draft 1
Why it won't happen:
Let's start with GOAT TANK. Unquestionably the best defensive tackle in the DSFL this last season, curator of a memetastic Twitter account that is currently undergoing forced diversification, and the second highest TPE earner in the class. Eldorian has made public contributions to sim understanding, and no doubt huge contributions to his team behind closed doors. Tank is going to go high in this draft.
So why not here? My gut feeling. I can't see a Goat coping well with gorillas, and a Tank on the streets of New York wouldn't go down well. And vice versa for tanks and goats. I do legitimately doubt this is the pick, but I can't properly articulate why. Sorry.
6) Baltimore Hawks - Tayshawn Crunk (Crunk), FS, London Royals - From many PT Mock Drafts
Why it won't happen:
I actually get where this comes from. Everyone blindly cut/pastes the first mock posted for easy TPE When Tayshawn Crunk comes to mind, it's probably accompanied an image of him making a play on the ball from deep (or a wall of red text that seems to linger for too long, whichever). He is almost certainly taking that interception for some return yards. There's a real subconscious message there... Tayshawn Crunk... ball hawk... pick 6. Hawks, pick 6? No. Your brain is fooling you.
The problem here isn't Tayshawn Crunk the player, the problem is the user. I have it on good authority that this user has a history of causing problems with ISFL GMs through controversial media articles, and is a borderline alcoholic who writes lengthy media pieces as a way to take his mind off hangovers. Baltimore are far too smart an organisation to a degenerate like Crunk this high. This isn't happening.
7) Honolulu Hahalua - Albert Ruschmann (katarn22), DE, London Royals - From Drafts 1 & 2 (Originally Pick 10)
Why it won't happen:
Having spent a season with katarn in London, my inital issue with this pick was that the 10th pick is too low to draft him. Now Honolulu are locked in at the 7th pick, that could conceivably be the low end of his draft range. I don't think he falls there, but even if he does, I just don't think they will pick him. Honolulu want fits for their locker room, and if they are taking a defensive end here then there are others that would fit better.
To be honest, I'm not sure there's much interest on either side - not that katarn would ever let on, he's way too wholesome for that. I bet if you asked him if he wanted to go to Honolulu, he would tell you about how great the place was last time he visited. From katarn, that kind of cheerful deflection is absolutely damning.
8) Arizona Outlaws - Raylan Crowder (Asked Madden), DE, Dallas Birddogs - From Draft 1
Why it won't happen:
Raylan Crowder is a first round defensive end prospect, and user Asked Madden is a good guy. He was cool with me ripping off his draft to criticise here, so although he's written some stuff about me being a horrible Dallas hater in the past, I think we are cool now. He will go in the first.
I doubt this pick will happen because of how I think the draft is going to play out. Either there's a run on defensive ends and Crowder goes before this, or there's a run on secondary, the defensive ends fall and Crowder goes lower than this.
9) Chicago Butchers - Guy Fields (r0tzbua), LB, Dallas Birddogs - From Draft 1 (Originally Pick 7)
Why it won't happen:
My reasoning at pick 7 was that Fields wouldn't drop this far. Now it's the 9th pick this would be absolutely insane. r0tz is a hugely respected user who has contributed to the league in multiple ways already. He improved the Dallas Birddogs' branding with his clean new design (it's way better than the one displayed here) and he had a lengthy written endorsement from the best sim tester in the league™. Guy Fields the linebacker is a tackling machine with a first round grade.
I have no doubt that Chicago would love to draft Fields here, but I don't see a situation where he is on the board. Sorry.
10) New Orleans Second Line - Felix Archstone (GlimsTC), OL, Kansas City Coyotes - From Draft 1
Why it won't happen:
Felix Archstone is a great prospect. Glims is a GM already in Kansas City, and exactly the sort of user that is worth a first round pick. I believe he will go in the first round, and I don't think that is controversial. The issue here is that New Orleans have a need at "Medicinal Toblerone" that Felix Archstone isn't equipped to fill.
The more I think about the Toblerone situation the more interesting it is. JuOSu has mocked Toblerone to the Sailfish, which is some excellent misdirection. If the Second Line have a guaranteed first round pick, why wouldn't they trade down? I could see a team like Colorado doing a deal with them to jump up a few spots.
11) Orange County Otters - Swantavius Jones (Swanty), CB, London Royals - From at least one PT Mock Draft
Why it won't happen:
The Orange County Otters are a powerhouse team with a great record of drafting talent. Swantavius Jones is a top tier prospect - as a teammate I hope he won't mind me saying that he is flying way under the radar of those not in war room circles - and the Otters would no doubt love to have him on their roster.
However, Swantavius Jones will not be on the board at the 11th pick. He just won't. No way, no how. Swanty is far, far too good a user to be passed on that many times. There are a number of teams with higher picks who will be praying that he falls to them. Never gonna happen.
12) Sarasota Sailfish - Medicinal Toblerone (JuOSu), OL, Myrtle Beach Buccaneers - From multiple PT Mock Drafts
Why it won't happen:
As discussed previously, Toblerone is going to New Orleans. So why are so many people making this pick at 12?
Either it's a cut and paste tragedy, or there's a trade between Sarasota and New Orleans in the works that has leaked, letting NOLA pick Toblerone here. I'm not accusing anyone of anything - I believe its the cut and paste thing. But damn, conspiracies are fun... when they aren't risking people's lives. Wear a facemask, folks.
13) Colorado Yeti - L'Gazzy Burfict (y2bobman), LB, London Royals - From some PT Mock Drafts
Why it won't happen:
L'Gazzy Burfict was unquestionably the steal of the Season 24 DSFL draft. A max earner in the 10th round? Wow. Burfict looks set to have a long and productive ISFL career. User y2bobman made the mistake of having me as the best man at his wedding, so I know that there are absolutely no concerns about the user here.
So why am I against this? I am not sold on the idea that Colorado want to take a linebacker with their first pick. Burfict has a slim chance at hearing his name called late in the first round, I just don't think it's here. Also, yes, my best man speech was superb, thanks for asking.
14) San Jose SaberCats - Davriel Lavigne (Raven), S, Portland Pythons - From at least one PT Mock Draft
Why it won't happen:
Yeah, this is a cheap one, but definitely the least controversial pick of this conceptual nightmare of a draft. If this was your pick, please know that Raven is the GM of the Honolulu Hahalua and by convention will be taken by Honolulu with their second round pick, and not before. If you see this and happen to change it, don't go with Dukburg QuakStak. Same reason.
References
Mock Draft With Extra Focus on Expansion Teams x 1.5 Media - Draft 1
The First ISFL S25 prospect mock draft - Draft 2
Dedications
I would like to dedicate the above article to my London Royals teammates. You all fully deserved the Ultimini, especially our GMs, former GMs and the elder statesmen who comprise the war room. To my London war room colleagues I say this - you can't call me an idiot for the above article... for the next five days. No leaks. Mwahahahaha
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Dear Graders
Please give 10% of my pay to each of @Asked Madden and @LewisMelville (Lewis, I hope this is cool with you, I DMed you on disc but you never got back to me) for writing the mock draft articles that provided my source material.
Also, give 10% to @slate. His PT mock was the first up, and so has been cut/pasted more times than that ill-fated CLG plea thread, therefore he has also provided me with source material.
Thank you!
This is exactly what mock drafts are for, well, for that and making people you've had very little contact with quite angry. Both ISFL and DSFL mock drafts are notoriously tough because of the lack of information - the people who possess that information are adhering to the no-leaks policy tighter than a submarine door. While that's absolutely brilliant for the user experience, its horrendous for the would-be mock drafter. In short, most mock drafts are destined to be completely and utterly wrong. I'm going to try to embrace that.
Here's the concept:
I'm going to take picks that have been made in the first rounds of mock drafts of other users and explain why I don't think they'll be the pick. My aim is to give picks that are completely wrong. If I'm wrong about being wrong, there's even more wrong to be mad at.
Where draft order has changed via trades or whatever, I'll consider the pick made for that team, changing draft slots. It'll become clearer than that as I go, hopefully. Also, what's the odds that this draft has more correct picks than my actual PT draft will? Sigh.
Disclaimer: All opinions here are based on absolutely no information, as I have no more information than any prospect would. They may not even end up being my actual opinions as I struggle to fill fourteen draft picks and am forced to channel my inner sports radio blowhard.
Crunk's Totally Wrong ISFL Mock Draft
1) Berlin Fire Salamanders - James Gath (Beefstu409), CB, Minnesota Grey Ducks - From Draft 1
Why it won't happen:
This pick was from an early mock, and its author admitted "being slightly biased" when making this choice. I am in no way disparaging Gath as a player - though he probably wouldn't be at this spot based on his DSFL career alone - or Beefstu409, a user who quickly put himself into the first overall conversation with media showcasing his software.
The problem is twofold: Firstly, other users have done similar with their own impressive software creations, and secondly, I'm just not sure that Berlin's recently formed front office will be buying what Stu is selling. What am I basing that on? Basically nothing. Call it instinct, or blame my magic 8 ball. I would be surprised to see Gath here.
2) Yellowknife Wraiths - Terry Tate (Brane_Chyld), LB, Tijuana Luchadores - From Draft 2 (Originally Pick 6)
Why it won't happen:
They Yellowknife Wraiths are a well run team that are never far from being serious contenders. They clearly know a thing or two about evaluating talent. With this in mind, I found it highly doubtful that they were planning to draft a retired linebacker when they were projected to have the sixth pick. Now they've traded up to the second slot, I'm almost sure that they won't be spending that selection on a retired player.
Sorry about that, the Tate pick is really low hanging fruit for an article like this, and only stood because the author "couldn't be arsed" to change it. I have said this before, but it bears repeating - as a peddler of low effort, high word count media, I respect the shit out of the "can't be arsed" stance.
3) Philadelphia Liberty - Medicinal Toblerone (JuOSu), OL, Myrtle Beach Buccaneers - From Draft 1
Why it won't happen:
Well, here's an easy one. JuOSu is a well-known user and a former GM of the New Orleans Second Line, running a player who is banking all their TPE. This is clearly a move to fill a (possibly undetermined) roster need for a team, and you'd only do it if you were dead set on going to particular team. Assuming that is the case, ISFL GMs are aware of this and won't take Toblerone away from the Second Line.
If Philly were to take Toblerone here, there would almost certainly be a complaint that the "don't be a dick" rule had been breached, with a lengthy process ultimately landing with the appeals committee, who would be obliged to debate the exact definition of "dick". Nobody needs that. Also, it will be interesting to see how New Orleans handles this with their draft picks. Is passing on a player you know will fall to you eventually a "dick" move? I'm not qualified to say.
4) San Jose SaberCats - Dan Foster (Arkz), CB, Portland Pythons - From many PT Mock Drafts
Why it won't happen:
Arkz is a great and highly involved user, and I think he will go in the first round. He gave me all kinds of hell in the awards committee, so I recognise in him a passion for the league that I thoroughly respect. Cornerback is definitely a position San Jose could look at addressing.
Then again, this is the fourth pick of the draft. I haven't done a big board or positional rankings, but if I did I would have three cornerbacks above Foster. The position is absolutely stacked this year. So will the fourth pick be the fourth cornerback selected? I doubt it. Not in a world with Goat Tank. Speaking of which...
5) New York Silverbacks - Goat Tank (Eldorian), DT, Myrtle Beach Buccaneers - From Draft 1
Why it won't happen:
Let's start with GOAT TANK. Unquestionably the best defensive tackle in the DSFL this last season, curator of a memetastic Twitter account that is currently undergoing forced diversification, and the second highest TPE earner in the class. Eldorian has made public contributions to sim understanding, and no doubt huge contributions to his team behind closed doors. Tank is going to go high in this draft.
So why not here? My gut feeling. I can't see a Goat coping well with gorillas, and a Tank on the streets of New York wouldn't go down well. And vice versa for tanks and goats. I do legitimately doubt this is the pick, but I can't properly articulate why. Sorry.
6) Baltimore Hawks - Tayshawn Crunk (Crunk), FS, London Royals - From many PT Mock Drafts
Why it won't happen:
I actually get where this comes from. Everyone blindly cut/pastes the first mock posted for easy TPE When Tayshawn Crunk comes to mind, it's probably accompanied an image of him making a play on the ball from deep (or a wall of red text that seems to linger for too long, whichever). He is almost certainly taking that interception for some return yards. There's a real subconscious message there... Tayshawn Crunk... ball hawk... pick 6. Hawks, pick 6? No. Your brain is fooling you.
The problem here isn't Tayshawn Crunk the player, the problem is the user. I have it on good authority that this user has a history of causing problems with ISFL GMs through controversial media articles, and is a borderline alcoholic who writes lengthy media pieces as a way to take his mind off hangovers. Baltimore are far too smart an organisation to a degenerate like Crunk this high. This isn't happening.
7) Honolulu Hahalua - Albert Ruschmann (katarn22), DE, London Royals - From Drafts 1 & 2 (Originally Pick 10)
Why it won't happen:
Having spent a season with katarn in London, my inital issue with this pick was that the 10th pick is too low to draft him. Now Honolulu are locked in at the 7th pick, that could conceivably be the low end of his draft range. I don't think he falls there, but even if he does, I just don't think they will pick him. Honolulu want fits for their locker room, and if they are taking a defensive end here then there are others that would fit better.
To be honest, I'm not sure there's much interest on either side - not that katarn would ever let on, he's way too wholesome for that. I bet if you asked him if he wanted to go to Honolulu, he would tell you about how great the place was last time he visited. From katarn, that kind of cheerful deflection is absolutely damning.
8) Arizona Outlaws - Raylan Crowder (Asked Madden), DE, Dallas Birddogs - From Draft 1
Why it won't happen:
Raylan Crowder is a first round defensive end prospect, and user Asked Madden is a good guy. He was cool with me ripping off his draft to criticise here, so although he's written some stuff about me being a horrible Dallas hater in the past, I think we are cool now. He will go in the first.
I doubt this pick will happen because of how I think the draft is going to play out. Either there's a run on defensive ends and Crowder goes before this, or there's a run on secondary, the defensive ends fall and Crowder goes lower than this.
9) Chicago Butchers - Guy Fields (r0tzbua), LB, Dallas Birddogs - From Draft 1 (Originally Pick 7)
Why it won't happen:
My reasoning at pick 7 was that Fields wouldn't drop this far. Now it's the 9th pick this would be absolutely insane. r0tz is a hugely respected user who has contributed to the league in multiple ways already. He improved the Dallas Birddogs' branding with his clean new design (it's way better than the one displayed here) and he had a lengthy written endorsement from the best sim tester in the league™. Guy Fields the linebacker is a tackling machine with a first round grade.
I have no doubt that Chicago would love to draft Fields here, but I don't see a situation where he is on the board. Sorry.
10) New Orleans Second Line - Felix Archstone (GlimsTC), OL, Kansas City Coyotes - From Draft 1
Why it won't happen:
Felix Archstone is a great prospect. Glims is a GM already in Kansas City, and exactly the sort of user that is worth a first round pick. I believe he will go in the first round, and I don't think that is controversial. The issue here is that New Orleans have a need at "Medicinal Toblerone" that Felix Archstone isn't equipped to fill.
The more I think about the Toblerone situation the more interesting it is. JuOSu has mocked Toblerone to the Sailfish, which is some excellent misdirection. If the Second Line have a guaranteed first round pick, why wouldn't they trade down? I could see a team like Colorado doing a deal with them to jump up a few spots.
11) Orange County Otters - Swantavius Jones (Swanty), CB, London Royals - From at least one PT Mock Draft
Why it won't happen:
The Orange County Otters are a powerhouse team with a great record of drafting talent. Swantavius Jones is a top tier prospect - as a teammate I hope he won't mind me saying that he is flying way under the radar of those not in war room circles - and the Otters would no doubt love to have him on their roster.
However, Swantavius Jones will not be on the board at the 11th pick. He just won't. No way, no how. Swanty is far, far too good a user to be passed on that many times. There are a number of teams with higher picks who will be praying that he falls to them. Never gonna happen.
12) Sarasota Sailfish - Medicinal Toblerone (JuOSu), OL, Myrtle Beach Buccaneers - From multiple PT Mock Drafts
Why it won't happen:
As discussed previously, Toblerone is going to New Orleans. So why are so many people making this pick at 12?
Either it's a cut and paste tragedy, or there's a trade between Sarasota and New Orleans in the works that has leaked, letting NOLA pick Toblerone here. I'm not accusing anyone of anything - I believe its the cut and paste thing. But damn, conspiracies are fun... when they aren't risking people's lives. Wear a facemask, folks.
13) Colorado Yeti - L'Gazzy Burfict (y2bobman), LB, London Royals - From some PT Mock Drafts
Why it won't happen:
L'Gazzy Burfict was unquestionably the steal of the Season 24 DSFL draft. A max earner in the 10th round? Wow. Burfict looks set to have a long and productive ISFL career. User y2bobman made the mistake of having me as the best man at his wedding, so I know that there are absolutely no concerns about the user here.
So why am I against this? I am not sold on the idea that Colorado want to take a linebacker with their first pick. Burfict has a slim chance at hearing his name called late in the first round, I just don't think it's here. Also, yes, my best man speech was superb, thanks for asking.
14) San Jose SaberCats - Davriel Lavigne (Raven), S, Portland Pythons - From at least one PT Mock Draft
Why it won't happen:
Yeah, this is a cheap one, but definitely the least controversial pick of this conceptual nightmare of a draft. If this was your pick, please know that Raven is the GM of the Honolulu Hahalua and by convention will be taken by Honolulu with their second round pick, and not before. If you see this and happen to change it, don't go with Dukburg QuakStak. Same reason.
References
Mock Draft With Extra Focus on Expansion Teams x 1.5 Media - Draft 1
The First ISFL S25 prospect mock draft - Draft 2
Dedications
I would like to dedicate the above article to my London Royals teammates. You all fully deserved the Ultimini, especially our GMs, former GMs and the elder statesmen who comprise the war room. To my London war room colleagues I say this - you can't call me an idiot for the above article... for the next five days. No leaks. Mwahahahaha
Code:
2414
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Dear Graders
Please give 10% of my pay to each of @Asked Madden and @LewisMelville (Lewis, I hope this is cool with you, I DMed you on disc but you never got back to me) for writing the mock draft articles that provided my source material.
Also, give 10% to @slate. His PT mock was the first up, and so has been cut/pasted more times than that ill-fated CLG plea thread, therefore he has also provided me with source material.
Thank you!