Introduction
I think the last mock draft I wrote for media was back in Season 22, so its been quite a while. Normally I don’t get to do one of these because I’m in the New York war room and Head Office so I get all the details around draft time and run the risk of leaking draft strategy or the actual results. Fines aren’t fun and I’d like to avoid them. Luckily we’re early enough in the season for me to feel safe throwing out some thoughts. @TubbyTim69 has already done a “Way Too Early” mock draft as well - you can find it here if you haven’t seen it yet - so I think its the perfect time to get some conflicting opinions going on. I’m also sure Gragg will have one out shortly to give even more thoughts.
A Note On Draft Order
There are a lot of teams tied in the standings right now. And I mean a LOT. I had to do some number crunching to get what I think is the optimal draft order for this point of the season. So a few basic notes about how I got here.
Baltimore takes the first overall pick because they’re the only winless team in the league at 0-5.
There are an incredible six teams tied at a 2-3 record so figuring out the second through seventh pick is a bit of a headache.
To break those ties we first go to playoff berth - which none of the teams are currently in a position for. After that we we look at head-to-head. All of the six teams that are tied have played at least one of the teams they are tied with. Orange County has played New Orleans and Austin, won both of those matchups, and are the only team to have won against all the teams they’re tied with so they take the seventh overall pick. Philadelphia has only played against one team they’re tied with - Berlin, lost, and are the only team to lose all their games against the teams they’re tied with so they take the second overall pick. Berlin takes the third overall pick because they beat Philadelphia but lost to Colorado. Colorado then takes the fourth overall pick because they beat Berlin but lost to Austin. Austin beat Colorado but lost to both New Orleans and Orange County, slottin them in at fifth overall. New Orleans beat Austin but lost to Orange County so they get sandwiched between both at sixth overall.
There are five teams tied with a 3-2 record. Of those New York is the only one currently not slotted into a playoff berth, so they take the eighth overall pick. Now traditionally San Jose would take the ninth overall pick even though they’re below Honolulu on the index because they lost to Honolulu and the next tiebreaker is Head-to-Head, however I made the decision to give eighth overall to Sarasota because technically they’d be the team on the road in the first round of the playoff from the NSFC. Subsequently Honolulu takes tenth overall because even though they’re tied with Sarasota in record neither team has played each other but the next tiebreaker is conference record and Honolulu is 3-1 while Sarasota is 2-2. Essentially I just predicted the underdog in each playoff round would lose and then compared them to the opposite team from the other conference.
This means that eleventh overall belongs to San Jose. They’re favored in the first round of the playoffs against Honolulu and have a worse record than their counterpart in the NSFC, the Wraiths. Yellowknife takes twelfth overall as a result. Thirteenth overall would go to Arizona as the top seed from the ASFC but with a worse record than the best team in the NSFC, the Butchers. Chicago would pick fourteenth overall as the current best team in the league.
Thankfully no first round pick has been traded yet which means all the teams have their picks in that order currently.
The Draft
1. Baltimore Hawks
Record: 0-5
Team Needs: QB, OL, CB, S
The Hawks just need talent. It really is that simple. Chika Fujiwara - their current quarterback - is one of the highest TPE players in the league, however they’re a Season 21 player and don’t fit the timeline the team is currently on. By the time regression begins hitting they’ve got three or four more good seasons left which is a bit longer than the ideal time for a team to let a quarterback prospect develop in the DSFL as a senddown. There are a lot of great quarterbacks in this class however, so it may be worth considering one in this draft just for the future. That being said, I doubt there is any world in which they take a quarterback first overall. They just need active, earning players to fill out the roster and liven up the locker room making a quarterback here a luxury.
I’m going to deviate from team needs a little with this pick based off of that thought process. Baltimore is fortunate enough to have what I think is a fairly obvious pick for first overall at this point in the season, even though it does fit their traditional needs.
The Pick: Sam the Onion Man (Duilio05) - WR - 172 TPE - Norfolk Seawolves
While not the highest TPE wide receiver on the board right now Sam the Onion man is on pace to cap by the end of the season, so his earning is fine. He’s a recreate which is a safe pick for this spot and can help solidify the wide receiver spot for the Hawks across from Joshua Campbell now that the Hawks have seen Korbin Brown’s earning slow down. They have the luxury to avoid team needs because they’ve got a young, earning safety - Caven McRae - and a young, earning cornerback - Lawrence Miller - still in the DSFL. Duilio is also a former Hawks General Manager and was still invested in the team’s management up until the most recent DSFL draft. Bringing him home is a good move for the locker room and a safe pick for the Hawks.
2. Philadelphia Liberty
Record: 2-3
Teams Needs: CB, S
Philadelphia has done a great job at stockpiling young talent over the last few seasons. Its hard to find a pressing need as they have a high earning quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end all stashed in the DSFL. They have three young, earning linebackers and four strong options on the defensive line, meaning they can fill out the core of a 4-3 defensive scheme. Their secondary does need some work, however. They have two active cornerbacks and two active safeties, however one of those safeties is only a season away from regression and the other safety and one cornerback are both relatively slow earners. They could definitely shore up that position.
The Pick: Juno Hu (j00) - CB - 176 TPE - Tijuana Luchadores
This pick feels like a no brainer. Hu is a high earning player - clocking in at sixteenth in the class for TPE - and comes at a position of need. He’s crazy active in rookie and general chat which gives him value as a locker room asset as well.
3. Berlin Fire Salamanders
Record: 2-3
Team Needs: LB, DL, S
Berlin has very few glaring holes. They rely on a handful of inactives to fill out the fringes of the roster but the majority of it is stocked with young, active players. They only have three defensive linemen and three linebackers rostered, however. One of those linebackers is inactive and two seasons from regression as well. They have a young defensive tackle in the DSFL who should be ready to come up next season, however that shouldn’t stop them from considering adding another piece on the line - all three defensive linemen on roster are Season 22 and thus one season from regression. They could always run one of the defensive ends as a linebacker in 4-3 if necessary.
The Pick: Prof. Godfrey Gravity (z0rem) - DT - 193 TPE - Kansas City Coyotes
This is definitely a landing spot for someone like Dexter Hall as well - who happens to be the only linebacker in the class over 120 TPE currently. The value of getting the second highest earner in the class at a position that is aging and has some versatility in how its used in the front seven, however, is too good to pass up.
4. Colorado Yeti
Record: 2-3
Team Needs: DL, CB, WR
Colorado only has one glaring weakness: their defensive line. Franchise stallworth Immanuel Blackstone is Season 21 and hurtling towards regression, although he should still be a valuable piece for several seasons after. The rest of the line, however, leaves a lot to be desired. Tycker Om is inactive and barely at the threshold for being playable currently. Big Edd has requested a trade and probably isn’t long for the team. They’ve got to find answers to the line and they don’t have a fix in the DSFL currently.
The Pick: Busch Goose (infinitempg) - RB - 186 TPE - Kansas City Coyotes
Running back isn’t a position of need for the Yeti, but infinite is a franchise legend that they can’t let slide down the board. Colorado has a history of making sure they secure their top targets and its not hard to imagine that they’ll do what they can to bring him back home.
5. Austin Copperheads
Record: 2-3
Team Needs: CB, S
I have no doubt Austin has a plan for their holes. After drafting defensive tackle Candice D. Fitinyomouf last season only to stash them in the DSFL for another season I assume their plan is to move Tyler Montain off the line at some point soon to maximize their window with him a position where his TPE is more valuable. That drastically reduces their need for defensive back help as he can immediately slide in at safety when Gregor Macgregor hits regression this offseason.
The Pick: Bayley Cowabunga (JKortesi81) - WR - 159 TPE - Dallas Birddogs
This draft is filled with league veterans that teams are going to have to have tough decisions on when to draft. Unless he mysteriously becomes Austin GM again before the draft I’d expect Joe to be the pick here. The risk of letting him slide and getting picked isn’t worth the potential gain of trying to wait. With Eddie Jeeta going inactive a season before regression this pick does slightly fill a need. The Copperheads can leave him in the DSFL for another season if necessary before slotting him into the lineup when their receivers begin to age.
6. New Orleans Second Line
Record: 2-3
Team Needs: TE, WR, LB
New Orleans could technically go a lot of different directions at this point. The top earner in the class - Saleem Spence - is still on the board and would give them a strong option to develop at wide receiver as Ed Barker heads toward regression. Their linebacker core is aging rapidly and Dexter Hall is still on the board here, however they have an option in the DSFL in Kevin Morrison that allows them to kick the can on that down the road a bit more. There isn’t a tight end on the board that wouldn’t be a reach here in my opinion.
The Pick: Raeni Clarke (bex) - QB - 185 TPE - Norfolk Seawolves
This makes three straight picks where teams bring home a legend to avoid missing them further down the board. This pick brings back to Season 22 when everyone thought New Orleans would take Slothlisberger twelfth overall but waited until the second round and still secured him. I imagine they could try to make the same gamble here, however there’s some risk that another team will jump on the opportunity to take the league’s commissioner before New Orleans comes back on the board. Although it doesn’t fit a traditional need it doesn’t hurt to start developing a quarterback now for when Sloth eventually does hit regression in a season.
7. Orange County Otters
Record: 2-3
Team Needs: WR, DL, LB, S
The Otters have a complete team but struggle with players who fit different timelines. They have two active wide receivers, however one is Season 22 and only one season from regression. They do run a lot of their passing attack through the tight end, however in the new sim you really do almost want three wide receivers anyway. They don’t have a great option for that in the DSFL. Their defensive line struggles from the same giving curve issues. Rapid Eagle and Rotticus Scott are both Season 21 players and are rapidly approaching regression. 3’ Jeffrey hasn’t updated since October. They do have two options - Monkey D. Luffy and Bean Beanman - in the DSFL that could step in next season. They have three linebackers however Sergio Kitchens is only 286 TPE and hasn’t updated since December. In the secondary they’re relying on two players who are currently in or about to be in regression - Prince Vegeta and Tyrone Biggums. They don’t have a great replacement for either in the DSFL.
The Pick: Mongo (MachineEarnedRuns) - LB - 187 TPE - Bondi Beach Buccaneers
I almost went with Dexter Zaylren here to bring another franchise legend home, however I think there are too many needs for the Otters to prioritize that this early. Mongo is in the Bondi Beach to Orange County pipeline, is a strong earner, and is discord active. He fits a need and as a defensive end should have the attribute levels to potentially rush off the end in the right situation.
8. New York Silverbacks
Record: 3-2
Team Needs: OL, DL, CB
I can hear woelkers tagging me on discord already about my chosen team needs for the Silverbacks. They lack traditional holes and the team fits a good timeline for the most part. Bubba Thumper Jayson Kearse are both rapidly approaching regression and retirement and the only option for replacement New York has in the DSFL is Primo Berto who has mostly stopped earning. In the new sim I think there’s a reward to having more than two human offensive linemen so I could see that being the pick here as well. With only two corners on roster and none in the DSFL it is also fairly important to begin considering replacing that bum Colt Mendoza at some point down the road since he’s one season from regression.
The Pick: Glenn Smart (Pib) - DE - 191 TPE - London Royals
Hello Bubba Thumper replacement. London has a history of developing active, earning prospects who stick around for a while. That pedigree is continued by Pib who is a good value pick. By the time the draft rolls around he should have almost passed Primo Berto in TPE and can spend another season in the DSFL developing before coming up to replace one of the aging member of the Silverback defensive line.
9. Sarasota Sailfish
Record: 3-2
Team Needs: RB, WR, LB, S
Raphtalia Chan won’t play forever, even if he does break the peak TPE record. Both of the other running back options the Sailfish have on roster are essentially inactive. They have Big Chungus stashed in the DSFL however he earns fairly slowly. They have a variety of options to replace Jacoby Clay when regression hits him again this offseason, however it might be worth considering another one here. They only have two linebackers on roster and both are Season 22 players. They don’t have a great option in the DSFL to fill in the third linebacker spot next season or replace either of their current ones as regression begins to set in. That same logic goes for the safety position where Jamie Nkiah is hurtling toward another season of regression with no clear replacement on the team.
The Pick: Dexter Hall (firstfray) - LB - 180 TPE - Kansas City Coyotes
This is a necessary pick for the Sailfish. There isn’t another premium linebacker prospect in the draft currently. This shores up an immediate position of need and protects them from regression setting in on their two current linebackers.
10. Honolulu Hahalua
Record: 3-2
Team Needs: WR, OL, DL, LB, CB, S
Honolulu needs a lot. They only have two wide receivers on their roster currently and both are aging rapidly. Former first overall pick Eleven Kendrick-Watts waits in the DSFL to come up and fill in, however. The Hahalua defensive line has five players, however only two are active. They have two potential options in the DSFL in Lionel Rumper and Pope Francis, however it wouldn’t hurt to grab a premium prospect to shore up that position group. Franchise star Jim Waters anchors their secondary, however he’s the only active cornerback the team has on the roster. Jason Bradshaw waits in the DSFL but that shouldn’t dissuade Honolulu from grabbing another just in case. Their safety position is plagued by similar issues with reliance on an inactive and no clear successor in the DSFL.
The Pick: Stumpy Jones (FootballisCool) - OL - 189 TPE - Portland Pythons
Honolulu suffers from a major issue - they only have one human offensive lineman on roster and he’s inactive. The new sim seems to reward human offensive linemen a lot and I fully expect there to be an eventual race to have as many as possible. Honolulu cannot afford to fall behind the league wide arms race that will eventually ensue.
11. San Jose Sabercats
Record: 3-2
Team Needs: RB, OL, DL, LB, S
San Jose has a complete team that is all peaking around the same time. They do have a few holes that could be patched up, however. With only two running backs on the roster and both being Season 22 or older adding a potential replacement would be huge for keeping the team competitive over the long haul. San Jose is also the only team in the league with no human offensive linemen. That should be a top priority for the team. On the defensive side of the ball it would help to add defensive line, linebacker, and safety depth even though they aren’t glaring weaknesses - regression eventually hits.
The Pick: Luke Quick (Bigred1580) - WR - 186 TPE - Kansas City Coyotes
Welcome back to San Jose BR. Wide receiver isn’t a need for the Sabercats however it never hurts to bring back an influential part of the locker room. BR’s previous player retired after winning a handful of Ultimus titles with the Sabercats and I imagine they’ll be ecstatic to welcome him back.
12. Yellowknife Wraiths
Record: 4-1
Team Needs: WR, DL, LB, CB
Yellowknife always manages to stay a contender. Its hard to find an obvious weakness for the team. Adding another wide receiver would be a positive since two of their four are inactive, however that is hardly a necessity. Help on the defensive line would also be a plus since Nero Alexander is headed for retirement sooner rather than later and there isn’t a replacement in the DSFL. They’re relying on an inactive linebacker currently to fill out the depth chart, however there is a replacement in Donald McBobby stashed away in the DSFL. They have a similar situation at cornerback - Mervin Leonard won’t be around forever but Kita Chiasa waits in the wings.
The Pick: Saleem Spence (StadiumGambler) - WR - 198 TPE - Portland Pythons
The top TPE player in the class finally comes off the board. Wide receiver is a need for the Wraiths and this is a premium prospect earning at a rate consistent enough to make him a contributor after another season of development. I imagine they consider Chunt the Badger here as well. Lots of options to boost their offense.
13. Arizona Outlaws
Record: 3-2
Team Needs: DL, LB, S
Arizona is in a great spot for the future. They have several needs but have replacements for almost all of them in the DSFL. Logan Sarrasin should be able to step up and play LB for them soon. The same goes for safety Moe Skeeter and defensive tackle Fergus Callaghan Jr. This gives the team the luxury of picking whoever they consider to be the best player available on the board for their specific situation.
The Pick: Anton Bruckner (Gragg9) - CB - 174 TPE - Minnesota Grey Ducks
Gragg has to be one of the most discord and forum active users in the class. I wouldn’t be surprised if that activity propelled him higher up the board. He’s in the upper echelon of earners as well at a position that always makes sense to stash more players at. This should be an easy pick for the Outlaws.
14. Chicago Butchers
Record: 4-1
Team Needs: QB, WR, CB
The Butchers are loaded. This is another team that makes it incredibly difficult to find a weakness. They only have two active wide receivers on the roster, however they have Mike Hunt stashed in the DSFL. Their cornerback group is aging - primarily composed of Season 22 players - however HeHateMe PickSix II waits in the wings to eventually fill in there. The only position that might be worthwhile considering a big need is quarterback. George O’Donnell is headed for regression and there are some strong options on the board if they decide to lock that replacement up now.
The Pick: Chunt The Bader (UltimateYeehaw) - WR - 192 TPE - Dallas Birddogs
With three top quarterback options still left on the board the Butchers can afford to let that pick wait. Choosing to secure another wide receiver is critical. Sean O’Leary is headed for another season of regression. By the time he plays another season Chunt should be ready to come up and contribute. Discord active, a strong earner, and a Birddog this pick makes sense on a lot of different levels.
Whelp its over
I think I covered just about everything. I’m sure I’ll do another installment of this at a later point during the season. It was a lot of fun and money is always nice.