03-10-2023, 08:31 AM
(This post was last modified: 03-12-2023, 11:58 AM by Caleb_H. Edited 7 times in total.)
Hello one and all! Welcome to a look at the Wizard's Orb: DSFL Predictions Week 3! The DSFL playoff race is heating up as the standings are showing tremendous parity this season. After week 7 every team has played each other team one time, and the remaining 7 games will be a schedule repeat with the home/away positions changing. This is good for subjective power rankings because Strength of Schedule is equal for every team at this point.
A Gaze Into The Past:
Let's take a quick look at my predictions from last week and see how I did including the running count.
Previous Week: 5-3
Current Week: 6-6
Total: 11-9
Okay it appears I'm just tossing a coin to pick the winners of these games. A more reasonable assessment is that with such an immense rookie draft class there's a lot of talent spread evenly across the DSFL this season. To add another factor, as rookies approach their 250 TPE caps, the gap between teams with returning starters and rebuilding teams is diminishing. At current we have 4 teams sitting at 4-3, and two teams just a game above or below that.
Week 5:
Matchup : Pred : Result
@ 
: : W
@ 
: : L
@ 
: : W
@ 
: : L
Week 6:
Matchup : Pred : Result
@ : : W
@ : : L
@ : : W
@ : : L
Week 7:
Matchup : Pred : Result
@ : : W
@ : : L
@ : : W
@ : : L
Effective TPE Update:
![[Image: Xq15gNS.png]](https://i.imgur.com/Xq15gNS.png)
Total Effective TPE:
There was a bit of an error last week with the ETPE(Effective TPE) tracker. I was working under the assumption every team would've been updated by Sunday, but notably Norfolk updates were still in progress. I'm instead electing to start releasing these articles on Friday to ensure that doesn't happen again. Unfortunately that means we'll be taking another look at the ETPE tracker from last weeks updates again. To recap briefly the Top 3 remain the same with Minnesota/Tijuana/Norfolk, Bondi Beach shoots up the charts to #4 as predicted in Week 1 with their stellar rookie class, and at the bottom of the chart Dallas moved up over London.
Bondi Beach and Kansas City saw the highest total gain/diff compared to last week, with Tijuana and Dallas close behind. This likely indicates waiver pickups from each of these teams. Having a high Total ETPE is good for a team because they're more likely to both fill more positions with human players, but it can hurt the average ETPE as not all players are equal TPE earners. Total ETPE is also skewed by ISFL send downs who are TPE capped at 250. For example Minnesota has the top total ETPE, but their roster also has two capped Quarterbacks which is a bit of a redundancy. You could argue in this case the MINN total should read more like 3716 which is still good for 2nd place. However I'm certain there are a dozen edge cases like this so we're not going to do that. Still it's worth mentioning when considering the numbers.
Average Effective TPE:
We can within reason expect that any active player will receive a gain of 13-15 TPE each week. In an ideal case a team with a full roster of active players would see their average rise by this amount. However, we need to factor in Inactive Players, and TPE Capped Players to get a better idea of how to get an ideal average gain. To a lesser extent teams adding new creates off the waiver will bring the average down, but that's typically rare enough to not completely skew our results. Let's take a closer look at each teams Rostered players to get better estimate for Average ETPE.
Estimated ETPE Gains:
AC: +2
Weekly Training: +3/+5
Predictions: +7.5 -> +8
Point Task +0/+3
Total = +13-18 Expected gain in Average ETPE per week assuming all players are active.
Roster Player Counts(Includes inactive players):
![[Image: gnEzSKi.png]](https://i.imgur.com/gnEzSKi.png)
Already we can see a trend here that the teams with the most Rostered players, Minnesota & Tijuana correlated with the smallest Average ETPE gains. Unsurprisingly these teams are also the highest in Total ETPE. However the remainder 6 teams all have either 23 or 24 players on the Roster. Let's try removing players who sit at 57 TPE or lower as those are almost guaranteed to be either inactive or brand new waiver pickups
Roster Player Counts(Removing sub 57 TPE players):
![[Image: 8ukVYk4.png]](https://i.imgur.com/8ukVYk4.png)
Tijuana, Dallas, and Minnesota, teams with the smallest Average ETPE gains, mostly correlate having most sub 57 TPE inactives on their roster. Norfolk is the outlier rostering only 5 sub 57 TPE players, but only seeing a 5 Average ETPE gain. However of their remaining 19 players, 6 are already ETPE capped. So let's try removing capped players from the count. As a bonus this can show us how many returning players each team has this season to factor into Power Rankings.
Roster Player Counts(Removing sub 57 TPE players AND 250 ETPE capped players):
![[Image: FT8zvVQ.png]](https://i.imgur.com/FT8zvVQ.png)
Okay great! Now we can use the Total Effective TPE difference column with these adjusted Roster numbers to get a better idea of how each team is improving. As a disclaimer this "final" Roster counter likely still has a few rounding errors due to players I didn't remove that are between 57 and 250 TPE but also Inactive(i.e. mostly S39/S40/S41 players who earned more than 57 TPE but dropped off). Also as noted Tijuana/Norfolk have a small advantage in returning capped players which could explain their 3-1 starts that had them at the top of the Power Rankings last week. Minnesota's 6 players can also be read as 5 due to having two capped Quarterbacks.
Adjusted Average Effective TPE:
![[Image: Rmjmx26.png]](https://i.imgur.com/Rmjmx26.png)
As a reminder we're looking for a range of 13-18 increase in Avg ETPE as a indicator of good team growth. Bondi Beach leads the charts with a staggering 33.25 increase in Avg ETPE from last week. I'll have to take a closer look, but my best guess is a waiver pickup completed their Late Joiner task and Rookie Point Tasks to help boost this number. Still they lead by nearly 8 points over the next best Dallas which goes to show the Buccaneers knocked it out of the park with their draft class and their league best record reflects the Adjusted value.
@Thor I will also quote myself from my Week 1 Way too Early Predictions:
"Bondi Beach isn't far behind coming off a league worst record last season they're clearly lacking veteran players. However they came away with a few tremendous draft steals in my opinion. So while the TPE levels are low right now, I expect a steady upward trend to move them up the charts later into the season. Don't be surprised if the Buccs are in playoff contention."
Dallas in second place shows they're turning things around after everyone counted them out in week 1. The Birddogs sit at 3-4 right now and are easily within reach of 2nd place in the South. In the middle of the pack we have 5 teams hovering around 20-22 Avg ETPE gains from last week which is really good! Likely these numbers are slightly inflated because the Total ETPE difference gain that I'm using for this average includes waiver pickups. I'll have to work out if there's an easy way to factor that out. Regardless the range of 20-22 is probably a good indicator that this number isn't entirely off. I would wager the Adjusted Avg ETPE gains being so close also reflects the league state in this case with 3/5 of the teams in the 20-22 range sitting at a 4-3 record. At the bottom we have Minnesota and London at 13.81 and 14.91 respectively. Still pretty good, but far off from the best case scenario.
Comparing the Adjusted difference against the Unadjusted difference the numbers matchup for the most part. KCC and London are the two outliers here. One thing to consider is that London had the lowest Roster count after removing capped/inactive players, while KCC had the highest. That may reflect why the Unadjusted KCC Avg ETPE increase was 2nd best, but after adjusting for inactives we got a more accurate, but still quite good number. London is kind of a mystery to me, perhaps a few star players were inflating the Unadjusted value. Minnesota is the other team with a low Adjusted number which is reflected by their rocky 2-5 start the season despite leading in Total ETPE which as I mentioned before is inflated by having two capped Quarterbacks.
POWER RANKINGS:
1a. Bondi Beach Buccaneers +4
1b. 1985 Chicago Bears -1
2. Portland Pythons +5
3. Norfolk Seawolves -2
4. Tijuana Luchadores -2
5. Dallas Birddogs +1
6. London Royals -2
7. Kansas City Coyotes -3
8. Minnesota Greyducks +0
Bondi Beach proves the haters wrong taking the top spot by a commanding lead. The Buccs maintain the leagues top offense by 6.7 point per game and their rookie defense has made up for a rocky start now sitting at 2nd only behind Tijuana. I don't imagine we'll see the Beach Boyz dropping for #1 anytime soon. I'm going to go ahead and just move Portland up to #2 to make up for how I disrespected them last week. Between a 3 game winning streak and Adjusted Avg ETPE they've earned the spot. Norfolk and Tijuana both drop two spots after a couple of rough losses, but both remain in contention. I'm making a bold claim putting Dallas over London who lead the North, but between playing in the South and Adjusted ETPE the Dogs are better than their record shows. KCC moves back down the charts solely on the on field performance. Sim gonna sim so don't count them out yet. Lastly the Greyducks stay at rank 8. Sorry I'm not a hater but the numbers at current justify that spot.
Pondering the Orb(Predictions):
For full transparency here these predictions are done using the following factors:
1. Current standings and statistical trends.
2. Sim testing. I did run these games in the sim using the Week 7 file, however that does not account for this weeks updates or any game planning GMs might do. Do NOT trust the sim.
3. Effective TPE standings.
Week 8:
Tijuana Luchadores @ Dallas Birddogs
Luchadores 14 : Birddogs 17
The league leading Tijuana defense is a menace, but I know better than to count out the Dallas rushing attack. After missing an extra point in week 7 the Birddogs kicker makes the difference in a close game.
Norfolk Seawolves @ Bondi Beach Buccaneers
Seawolves 28 : Buccaneers 56
I really don't want to make more bulletin board material for Thor. If Legs McMillion can get the Seawolves out to a early lead they stand a chance, but I'm taking the Buccs by a million here.
Portland Pythons @ Minnesota Greyducks
Pythons 28 : Greyducks 10
Portland's potent defense leads the league with 31 Sacks. I hope I'm wrong, but don't expect the Minnesota's offense to do anything to change that.
London Royals @ Kansas City Coyotes
Royals 21 : Coyotes 24
Ray Baker kicks a game winning field goal in overtime. I don't think Kansas City's numbers accurately reflect their record thus far. The Coyote roster may be lacking in numbers after losing a number of starters from last year, but their draft class has the TPE gains to back this predictions up.
Week 9
Bondi Beach Buccaneers @ Dallas Birddogs
Buccaneers 38 : Birddogs 21
You know the drill. Dallas keeps it close, but nobody can stop the Pirates.
Norfolk Seawolves @ Tijuana Luchadores
Seawolves 35 : Luchadores 28
This should be a bit closer than the week 2 matchup with new star Cornerback Ezra Azazel matching up against Big McLarge McHuge who burned the Luchadores for 80 yards and a Tuddy when these teams last matched up. Still I'm never predicting a Luchadore win again after weeks 5/6. Norfolk's secondary is able to contain Lloyd Bannings in a game that goes down to the wire.
Minnesota Greyducks @ London Royals
Greyducks 24 : Royals 23
A division showdown the Ducks look to turn things around in week 9. Despite their record Minnesota still has a league leading 6 returning starters. I think that's enough to make the difference against London.
Kansas City Coyotes @ Portland Python
Coyotes 27 : Pythons 28
Portland is on a tear looking to get revenge after the week 2 blowout loss to Kansas City. I'm taking the Snakes by a narrow margin. Expect this game to be much closer than the previous outing.
Week 10:
Dallas Birddogs @ Norfolk Seawolves
Birddogs 38 : Seawolves 42
We've seen a lot of improvement from Dallas, but they still have a league worst defense after week 7. I'm not sure they have the Secondary to cover this Norfolk receiving core.
London Royals @ Tijuana Luchadores
Royals 42 : Luchadores 7
Blowout win for London. Tijuana bad. Luchadores more like Loseradores.
Portland Pythons @ Bondi Beach Buccaneers
Pythons 21 : Buccaneers 31
Battle of the Gangs in Green! Nobody can stop Green team who is on a 3+ game winning streak after their 1-2 start. Wait you're telling me that statement applies to both of these teams? Okay well you know the deal, Buccaneers by like 40, or maybe just 10 because Portland deserves the respect.
Minnesota Greyducks @ Kansas City Coyotes
Greyducks 17 : Coyotes 31
Kansas City squares up to make a late season shot for the 2nd seed in the North. Don't count out the Coyotes yet!
Predicted Standings:
North:
1. Portland 6-4
2. London 5-5
3. Kansas City 4-6
4. Minnesota 3-7
South:
1. Bondi Beach 8-2
2. Norfolk 6-4
3. Dallas 4-6
4. Tijuana 4-6
A Gaze Into The Past:
Let's take a quick look at my predictions from last week and see how I did including the running count.
Previous Week: 5-3
Current Week: 6-6
Total: 11-9
Okay it appears I'm just tossing a coin to pick the winners of these games. A more reasonable assessment is that with such an immense rookie draft class there's a lot of talent spread evenly across the DSFL this season. To add another factor, as rookies approach their 250 TPE caps, the gap between teams with returning starters and rebuilding teams is diminishing. At current we have 4 teams sitting at 4-3, and two teams just a game above or below that.
Week 5:
Matchup : Pred : Result
@ : : W @ : : L @ : : W @ : : LWeek 6:
Matchup : Pred : Result
@ : : W @ : : L @ : : W @ : : LWeek 7:
Matchup : Pred : Result
@ : : W @ : : L @ : : W @ : : LEffective TPE Update:
Total Effective TPE:
There was a bit of an error last week with the ETPE(Effective TPE) tracker. I was working under the assumption every team would've been updated by Sunday, but notably Norfolk updates were still in progress. I'm instead electing to start releasing these articles on Friday to ensure that doesn't happen again. Unfortunately that means we'll be taking another look at the ETPE tracker from last weeks updates again. To recap briefly the Top 3 remain the same with Minnesota/Tijuana/Norfolk, Bondi Beach shoots up the charts to #4 as predicted in Week 1 with their stellar rookie class, and at the bottom of the chart Dallas moved up over London.
Bondi Beach and Kansas City saw the highest total gain/diff compared to last week, with Tijuana and Dallas close behind. This likely indicates waiver pickups from each of these teams. Having a high Total ETPE is good for a team because they're more likely to both fill more positions with human players, but it can hurt the average ETPE as not all players are equal TPE earners. Total ETPE is also skewed by ISFL send downs who are TPE capped at 250. For example Minnesota has the top total ETPE, but their roster also has two capped Quarterbacks which is a bit of a redundancy. You could argue in this case the MINN total should read more like 3716 which is still good for 2nd place. However I'm certain there are a dozen edge cases like this so we're not going to do that. Still it's worth mentioning when considering the numbers.
Average Effective TPE:
We can within reason expect that any active player will receive a gain of 13-15 TPE each week. In an ideal case a team with a full roster of active players would see their average rise by this amount. However, we need to factor in Inactive Players, and TPE Capped Players to get a better idea of how to get an ideal average gain. To a lesser extent teams adding new creates off the waiver will bring the average down, but that's typically rare enough to not completely skew our results. Let's take a closer look at each teams Rostered players to get better estimate for Average ETPE.
Estimated ETPE Gains:
AC: +2
Weekly Training: +3/+5
Predictions: +7.5 -> +8
Point Task +0/+3
Total = +13-18 Expected gain in Average ETPE per week assuming all players are active.
Roster Player Counts(Includes inactive players):
Already we can see a trend here that the teams with the most Rostered players, Minnesota & Tijuana correlated with the smallest Average ETPE gains. Unsurprisingly these teams are also the highest in Total ETPE. However the remainder 6 teams all have either 23 or 24 players on the Roster. Let's try removing players who sit at 57 TPE or lower as those are almost guaranteed to be either inactive or brand new waiver pickups
Roster Player Counts(Removing sub 57 TPE players):
Tijuana, Dallas, and Minnesota, teams with the smallest Average ETPE gains, mostly correlate having most sub 57 TPE inactives on their roster. Norfolk is the outlier rostering only 5 sub 57 TPE players, but only seeing a 5 Average ETPE gain. However of their remaining 19 players, 6 are already ETPE capped. So let's try removing capped players from the count. As a bonus this can show us how many returning players each team has this season to factor into Power Rankings.
Roster Player Counts(Removing sub 57 TPE players AND 250 ETPE capped players):
Okay great! Now we can use the Total Effective TPE difference column with these adjusted Roster numbers to get a better idea of how each team is improving. As a disclaimer this "final" Roster counter likely still has a few rounding errors due to players I didn't remove that are between 57 and 250 TPE but also Inactive(i.e. mostly S39/S40/S41 players who earned more than 57 TPE but dropped off). Also as noted Tijuana/Norfolk have a small advantage in returning capped players which could explain their 3-1 starts that had them at the top of the Power Rankings last week. Minnesota's 6 players can also be read as 5 due to having two capped Quarterbacks.
Adjusted Average Effective TPE:
As a reminder we're looking for a range of 13-18 increase in Avg ETPE as a indicator of good team growth. Bondi Beach leads the charts with a staggering 33.25 increase in Avg ETPE from last week. I'll have to take a closer look, but my best guess is a waiver pickup completed their Late Joiner task and Rookie Point Tasks to help boost this number. Still they lead by nearly 8 points over the next best Dallas which goes to show the Buccaneers knocked it out of the park with their draft class and their league best record reflects the Adjusted value.
@Thor I will also quote myself from my Week 1 Way too Early Predictions:
"Bondi Beach isn't far behind coming off a league worst record last season they're clearly lacking veteran players. However they came away with a few tremendous draft steals in my opinion. So while the TPE levels are low right now, I expect a steady upward trend to move them up the charts later into the season. Don't be surprised if the Buccs are in playoff contention."
Dallas in second place shows they're turning things around after everyone counted them out in week 1. The Birddogs sit at 3-4 right now and are easily within reach of 2nd place in the South. In the middle of the pack we have 5 teams hovering around 20-22 Avg ETPE gains from last week which is really good! Likely these numbers are slightly inflated because the Total ETPE difference gain that I'm using for this average includes waiver pickups. I'll have to work out if there's an easy way to factor that out. Regardless the range of 20-22 is probably a good indicator that this number isn't entirely off. I would wager the Adjusted Avg ETPE gains being so close also reflects the league state in this case with 3/5 of the teams in the 20-22 range sitting at a 4-3 record. At the bottom we have Minnesota and London at 13.81 and 14.91 respectively. Still pretty good, but far off from the best case scenario.
Comparing the Adjusted difference against the Unadjusted difference the numbers matchup for the most part. KCC and London are the two outliers here. One thing to consider is that London had the lowest Roster count after removing capped/inactive players, while KCC had the highest. That may reflect why the Unadjusted KCC Avg ETPE increase was 2nd best, but after adjusting for inactives we got a more accurate, but still quite good number. London is kind of a mystery to me, perhaps a few star players were inflating the Unadjusted value. Minnesota is the other team with a low Adjusted number which is reflected by their rocky 2-5 start the season despite leading in Total ETPE which as I mentioned before is inflated by having two capped Quarterbacks.
POWER RANKINGS:
1a. Bondi Beach Buccaneers +4
1b. 1985 Chicago Bears -1
2. Portland Pythons +5
3. Norfolk Seawolves -2
4. Tijuana Luchadores -2
5. Dallas Birddogs +1
6. London Royals -2
7. Kansas City Coyotes -3
8. Minnesota Greyducks +0
Bondi Beach proves the haters wrong taking the top spot by a commanding lead. The Buccs maintain the leagues top offense by 6.7 point per game and their rookie defense has made up for a rocky start now sitting at 2nd only behind Tijuana. I don't imagine we'll see the Beach Boyz dropping for #1 anytime soon. I'm going to go ahead and just move Portland up to #2 to make up for how I disrespected them last week. Between a 3 game winning streak and Adjusted Avg ETPE they've earned the spot. Norfolk and Tijuana both drop two spots after a couple of rough losses, but both remain in contention. I'm making a bold claim putting Dallas over London who lead the North, but between playing in the South and Adjusted ETPE the Dogs are better than their record shows. KCC moves back down the charts solely on the on field performance. Sim gonna sim so don't count them out yet. Lastly the Greyducks stay at rank 8. Sorry I'm not a hater but the numbers at current justify that spot.
Pondering the Orb(Predictions):
For full transparency here these predictions are done using the following factors:
1. Current standings and statistical trends.
2. Sim testing. I did run these games in the sim using the Week 7 file, however that does not account for this weeks updates or any game planning GMs might do. Do NOT trust the sim.
3. Effective TPE standings.
Week 8:
Tijuana Luchadores @ Dallas BirddogsLuchadores 14 : Birddogs 17
The league leading Tijuana defense is a menace, but I know better than to count out the Dallas rushing attack. After missing an extra point in week 7 the Birddogs kicker makes the difference in a close game.
Norfolk Seawolves @ Bondi Beach BuccaneersSeawolves 28 : Buccaneers 56
I really don't want to make more bulletin board material for Thor. If Legs McMillion can get the Seawolves out to a early lead they stand a chance, but I'm taking the Buccs by a million here.
Portland Pythons @ Minnesota GreyducksPythons 28 : Greyducks 10
Portland's potent defense leads the league with 31 Sacks. I hope I'm wrong, but don't expect the Minnesota's offense to do anything to change that.
London Royals @ Kansas City CoyotesRoyals 21 : Coyotes 24
Ray Baker kicks a game winning field goal in overtime. I don't think Kansas City's numbers accurately reflect their record thus far. The Coyote roster may be lacking in numbers after losing a number of starters from last year, but their draft class has the TPE gains to back this predictions up.
Week 9
Bondi Beach Buccaneers @ Dallas BirddogsBuccaneers 38 : Birddogs 21
You know the drill. Dallas keeps it close, but nobody can stop the Pirates.
Norfolk Seawolves @ Tijuana LuchadoresSeawolves 35 : Luchadores 28
This should be a bit closer than the week 2 matchup with new star Cornerback Ezra Azazel matching up against Big McLarge McHuge who burned the Luchadores for 80 yards and a Tuddy when these teams last matched up. Still I'm never predicting a Luchadore win again after weeks 5/6. Norfolk's secondary is able to contain Lloyd Bannings in a game that goes down to the wire.
Minnesota Greyducks @ London Royals Greyducks 24 : Royals 23
A division showdown the Ducks look to turn things around in week 9. Despite their record Minnesota still has a league leading 6 returning starters. I think that's enough to make the difference against London.
Kansas City Coyotes @ Portland Python Coyotes 27 : Pythons 28
Portland is on a tear looking to get revenge after the week 2 blowout loss to Kansas City. I'm taking the Snakes by a narrow margin. Expect this game to be much closer than the previous outing.
Week 10:
Dallas Birddogs @ Norfolk SeawolvesBirddogs 38 : Seawolves 42
We've seen a lot of improvement from Dallas, but they still have a league worst defense after week 7. I'm not sure they have the Secondary to cover this Norfolk receiving core.
London Royals @ Tijuana LuchadoresRoyals 42 : Luchadores 7
Blowout win for London. Tijuana bad. Luchadores more like Loseradores.
Portland Pythons @ Bondi Beach BuccaneersPythons 21 : Buccaneers 31
Battle of the Gangs in Green! Nobody can stop Green team who is on a 3+ game winning streak after their 1-2 start. Wait you're telling me that statement applies to both of these teams? Okay well you know the deal, Buccaneers by like 40, or maybe just 10 because Portland deserves the respect.
Minnesota Greyducks @ Kansas City CoyotesGreyducks 17 : Coyotes 31
Kansas City squares up to make a late season shot for the 2nd seed in the North. Don't count out the Coyotes yet!
Predicted Standings:
North:
1.
Portland 6-42.
London 5-53.
Kansas City 4-64.
Minnesota 3-7South:
1.
Bondi Beach 8-22.
Norfolk 6-43.
Dallas 4-64.
Tijuana 4-6
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