03-24-2023, 08:57 AM
(This post was last modified: 04-01-2023, 08:03 PM by Caleb_H. Edited 1 time in total.)
Well, this was a good week for me (and my bank account)! I went with bets that I usually would avoid as they seem a bit coin flip-y but they paid off. There is only one more week of props as I guess they don’t do any for the playoffs, so I might have to go big on a parlay for funsies. I’ll also recap my entire betting experience after the regular season is completed to see how I did and what I can improve on. In the meantime, let’s recap week 15:
Roque Santa-Cruz (BER) – over 239.5 pass yds: Well, Armor Queen was unleashed this game, taking 33 carries for 138 yards. So you’d expect the passing game to be minimal, right? Nope, 41 passes for RSC. I’m a bit surprised there was only 258 yards passing when completing 29 passes, but it was enough to hit the over, so I’m not going to question it any further. Hell of a game by Berlin.
Leandre Diarra (OCO) – over 5.5 pancakes: Looks like this was closer to the outlier games than the average as Diarra had 8. A bit of research (by @slate) shows that Diarra set 2 obscure records this season: most pancakes by a non-OL in a game (14) and most pancakes by a non-OL in a season (83 and counting)! Pretty interesting to see and ultimately meant I got this one wrong. No idea how to assess these types of props.
Danny Nedelko (AZ) – under 85.5 rush yds: Oh Nedelko, you broke my heart AGAIN. Thankfully I did not include this one in my parlay. I just need to figure out what I think will happen, then go against that thought. Nedelko just couldn’t get anything going as his longest carry was 7 yards. Only lesson I learned on this one was to avoid Nedelko in betting. ?
Eee. Phenssta (COL) – under 104.5 receiving yds: Phew, narrowly got this one right (and allowed me to hit my parlay). Phenssta got 102 yards and even got a long TD of 48 yards, so I thought we were doomed on that one. But thankfully for me, Colorado did not look her way often in the 4th quarter and so we were able to hold on. I’ll take it!
Lucius Salem (SAR) – over 50.5 receiving yds: Salem did indeed get just enough targets and catches to narrowly get the over. A 34 yard touchdown catch in the 2nd quarter did most of the damage but Salem was peppered with targets all game. This one felt good as it was about how I had expected it would go so I’ll take the W all day, every day, and twice on Sunday.
Kalam Mekhar (YKW) – over 1.5 PDs: Well, Mekhar ended up with 3 pass deflections, which continues to lead the league. Even got an interception to boot. This is another one where the game went about as expected where Beatz threw it 41 times, leading to plenty of opportunities for Mekhar to hit the over. I’m not sure if I’m just getting lucky or if I’m starting to figure some of these out. But I’m probably just getting lucky.
Sconnie McSix (SJS) – over 1.5 punt returns: San Jose did enough to pin Austin deep in their own territory a few times to allow the weak legged punter enough room to get 3 punt returns. Another game that followed my thought process and all McSix needed was enough opportunities, which happened. I’m liking these random props!
I’d be happy with this every other week! Now let’s see what they cooked up for the last regular season games:
Wait, what, all of your bets are marked!? Is that right!? Sure is! Parlays are 1 million no matter how many bets you add on, so since this is the last regular season betting opportunity, might as well go big! Let's analyze these bets:
Queen Elizabeth II (AUS) – o/u 259.5 passing yds: The Queen is averaging 274.5 passing yards this season, the lowest of their young career. However, that is still good for 5th in the league in passing yards per game. Austin faces off against New York in the regular season finale, and despite the bad record, New York is only allowing 249.3 passing yards per game. The last time these 2 teams faced off, it was a low scoring affair that saw Queen Elizabeth only throw for 183 yards. I think Austin is a much better team when they throw so they’ll want to enter the playoffs on a hot streak, so Queen will hit the over.
Owen Farrell (SJS) – o/u 42.5 pass attempts: Farrell is averaging an absurd 44.3 attempts per game this season, leading the league. It looks like San Jose passes a lot more when they’re losing and not nearly as much in wins. This is a tight battle for the potentially last playoff spot in the ASFC. At first I wanted to take the under but I think San Jose is going to be forced to pass the ball early and often, so I’ll take the over on this one.
Adebayo Akinfenwa (YKW) – o/u 99.5 rushing yds: Akinfenwa is having a GREAT year, easily the best of his career. Averaging 105.5 yards per game, he’s right there for the MVP discussion (except JHM is balling out so I don’t think there’s much of a discussion). Going against Berlin, I expect a lot of rushing this game. YKW wants to win so they can lock up the 1 seed in the NSFC (which I think is possible due to tiebreakers). Berlin’s run defense has actually been pretty good, and my gut is telling me I should bet the under, but because of that, I’m taking the over.
Jarvis Harbinger-Marjin (CTC) – o/u 1.5 rush TDs: MVP JHM, as previously mentioned, is the GOAT this year. Cape Town really relies on their star running back as they are much more likely to win if JHM scores more than 1 rushing TD. However, they’re going up against one of the better run defenses in the league and one of the best teams in the league. So we have a classic chicken and egg question with JHM. Does Cape Town win because JHM does well or does JHM do well because Cape Town wins? Unfortunately, I don’t think Cape Town pulls this one out, meaning JHM won’t likely get his 2 rushing TDs.
Leek Mai-Heinous (HON) – o/u 94.5 receiving yds: Leek is having a stellar season too, averaging 92.1 receiving yards per game and tied for first in receiving TDs. Honolulu is not shy about passing it to their star wide receiver. And thankfully for them, they face off against Colorado this week, which is 13th in the league in passing yards allowed per game. This will be their only meeting of the season but I’m expecting a high scoring game from both teams. I think Leek will fairly easily hit the over on this one.
Bender Rodriguez (OCO) – o/u 7.5 tackles: This will be the last regular season game for Bender, who looks like they have had a hell of a career for OCO. 8 tackles in a game against Arizona is no small feat, as it looks like only 1 or 2 players a game get many. So does Bender lead Orange County in tackles this game? I’d like to say yes but I’m taking the under. I’m going to say Bender gets 6-7 so if the line was at 6.5, I’d have been more unsure on this one.
Sarasota Def. – o/u 1.5 interceptions: A wonderful team prop this time! Sarasota is tied for 2nd in the league with 19 interceptions on the year and tied for first in PDs (meaning they have a tenacious pass defense). Going against a very pass heavy team in Baltimore should provide plenty of opportunities. However, Baltimore’s QB, Beatz, is only averaging 1 interception per game. He only has 4 games of multiple interceptions this season. I think Beatz is better this game than not so I’m taking the under.
The casino team pulled out all the big guns for this final week and I'm here for it! Lots of action and great props to look for. Like I mentioned, since this is the last week, I'm going to parlay all of my guesses in the hopes for one last big payout before I take a break for the offseason. I'll still have a final wrap up article for prop betting as well as a fantasy football recap article. So good luck to you all this week and it should be fun to see who gets into the final playoff spots!
Roque Santa-Cruz (BER) – over 239.5 pass yds: Well, Armor Queen was unleashed this game, taking 33 carries for 138 yards. So you’d expect the passing game to be minimal, right? Nope, 41 passes for RSC. I’m a bit surprised there was only 258 yards passing when completing 29 passes, but it was enough to hit the over, so I’m not going to question it any further. Hell of a game by Berlin.
Leandre Diarra (OCO) – over 5.5 pancakes: Looks like this was closer to the outlier games than the average as Diarra had 8. A bit of research (by @slate) shows that Diarra set 2 obscure records this season: most pancakes by a non-OL in a game (14) and most pancakes by a non-OL in a season (83 and counting)! Pretty interesting to see and ultimately meant I got this one wrong. No idea how to assess these types of props.
Danny Nedelko (AZ) – under 85.5 rush yds: Oh Nedelko, you broke my heart AGAIN. Thankfully I did not include this one in my parlay. I just need to figure out what I think will happen, then go against that thought. Nedelko just couldn’t get anything going as his longest carry was 7 yards. Only lesson I learned on this one was to avoid Nedelko in betting. ?
Eee. Phenssta (COL) – under 104.5 receiving yds: Phew, narrowly got this one right (and allowed me to hit my parlay). Phenssta got 102 yards and even got a long TD of 48 yards, so I thought we were doomed on that one. But thankfully for me, Colorado did not look her way often in the 4th quarter and so we were able to hold on. I’ll take it!
Lucius Salem (SAR) – over 50.5 receiving yds: Salem did indeed get just enough targets and catches to narrowly get the over. A 34 yard touchdown catch in the 2nd quarter did most of the damage but Salem was peppered with targets all game. This one felt good as it was about how I had expected it would go so I’ll take the W all day, every day, and twice on Sunday.
Kalam Mekhar (YKW) – over 1.5 PDs: Well, Mekhar ended up with 3 pass deflections, which continues to lead the league. Even got an interception to boot. This is another one where the game went about as expected where Beatz threw it 41 times, leading to plenty of opportunities for Mekhar to hit the over. I’m not sure if I’m just getting lucky or if I’m starting to figure some of these out. But I’m probably just getting lucky.
Sconnie McSix (SJS) – over 1.5 punt returns: San Jose did enough to pin Austin deep in their own territory a few times to allow the weak legged punter enough room to get 3 punt returns. Another game that followed my thought process and all McSix needed was enough opportunities, which happened. I’m liking these random props!
I’d be happy with this every other week! Now let’s see what they cooked up for the last regular season games:
Wait, what, all of your bets are marked!? Is that right!? Sure is! Parlays are 1 million no matter how many bets you add on, so since this is the last regular season betting opportunity, might as well go big! Let's analyze these bets:
Queen Elizabeth II (AUS) – o/u 259.5 passing yds: The Queen is averaging 274.5 passing yards this season, the lowest of their young career. However, that is still good for 5th in the league in passing yards per game. Austin faces off against New York in the regular season finale, and despite the bad record, New York is only allowing 249.3 passing yards per game. The last time these 2 teams faced off, it was a low scoring affair that saw Queen Elizabeth only throw for 183 yards. I think Austin is a much better team when they throw so they’ll want to enter the playoffs on a hot streak, so Queen will hit the over.
Owen Farrell (SJS) – o/u 42.5 pass attempts: Farrell is averaging an absurd 44.3 attempts per game this season, leading the league. It looks like San Jose passes a lot more when they’re losing and not nearly as much in wins. This is a tight battle for the potentially last playoff spot in the ASFC. At first I wanted to take the under but I think San Jose is going to be forced to pass the ball early and often, so I’ll take the over on this one.
Adebayo Akinfenwa (YKW) – o/u 99.5 rushing yds: Akinfenwa is having a GREAT year, easily the best of his career. Averaging 105.5 yards per game, he’s right there for the MVP discussion (except JHM is balling out so I don’t think there’s much of a discussion). Going against Berlin, I expect a lot of rushing this game. YKW wants to win so they can lock up the 1 seed in the NSFC (which I think is possible due to tiebreakers). Berlin’s run defense has actually been pretty good, and my gut is telling me I should bet the under, but because of that, I’m taking the over.
Jarvis Harbinger-Marjin (CTC) – o/u 1.5 rush TDs: MVP JHM, as previously mentioned, is the GOAT this year. Cape Town really relies on their star running back as they are much more likely to win if JHM scores more than 1 rushing TD. However, they’re going up against one of the better run defenses in the league and one of the best teams in the league. So we have a classic chicken and egg question with JHM. Does Cape Town win because JHM does well or does JHM do well because Cape Town wins? Unfortunately, I don’t think Cape Town pulls this one out, meaning JHM won’t likely get his 2 rushing TDs.
Leek Mai-Heinous (HON) – o/u 94.5 receiving yds: Leek is having a stellar season too, averaging 92.1 receiving yards per game and tied for first in receiving TDs. Honolulu is not shy about passing it to their star wide receiver. And thankfully for them, they face off against Colorado this week, which is 13th in the league in passing yards allowed per game. This will be their only meeting of the season but I’m expecting a high scoring game from both teams. I think Leek will fairly easily hit the over on this one.
Bender Rodriguez (OCO) – o/u 7.5 tackles: This will be the last regular season game for Bender, who looks like they have had a hell of a career for OCO. 8 tackles in a game against Arizona is no small feat, as it looks like only 1 or 2 players a game get many. So does Bender lead Orange County in tackles this game? I’d like to say yes but I’m taking the under. I’m going to say Bender gets 6-7 so if the line was at 6.5, I’d have been more unsure on this one.
Sarasota Def. – o/u 1.5 interceptions: A wonderful team prop this time! Sarasota is tied for 2nd in the league with 19 interceptions on the year and tied for first in PDs (meaning they have a tenacious pass defense). Going against a very pass heavy team in Baltimore should provide plenty of opportunities. However, Baltimore’s QB, Beatz, is only averaging 1 interception per game. He only has 4 games of multiple interceptions this season. I think Beatz is better this game than not so I’m taking the under.
The casino team pulled out all the big guns for this final week and I'm here for it! Lots of action and great props to look for. Like I mentioned, since this is the last week, I'm going to parlay all of my guesses in the hopes for one last big payout before I take a break for the offseason. I'll still have a final wrap up article for prop betting as well as a fantasy football recap article. So good luck to you all this week and it should be fun to see who gets into the final playoff spots!
"...and has what is honestly the most bizarre attachment to ISFL fantasy football and user bets..." - aeonsjenni