04-30-2023, 11:29 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-04-2023, 09:20 AM by H0PPY75. Edited 1 time in total.)
Wild Week 7 is finally in the books. It was not a fun group of bets to look at and guess but I admittedly did better than I thought I would have. Team props can be hard to evaluate and so with 3 of them in week 7, everyone who is doing this exercise was pulling their hair out. I still have not made any money yet this season but I also haven’t lost much, thankfully. I think I’m going to try a new approach this week and put varying amount of money on each bet, depending on my gut feel. I’ll still do a parlay but it won’t be my main money-making attempt this week. So let’s take a look at how the bets shaped up for week 7.
OCO/HON – under 249.5 Rush yds; This was ended up being really close but thankfully not quite enough to hit the over. There were a couple long rushes in there that worried me but ultimately neither team was quite dominant enough on the ground to make it happen. I’ll take the W on this one.
Deshawn Penne (AUS) – under 4.5 Receptions; Either everyone followed our advice or we all thought the same thing as I am pretty confident anyone who bet on this prop took the under. With only 2 catches (but 1 was a TD, yay!), it wasn’t even close. I guess I should have been more confident in this one. Penne is having a disappointing season for sure, but the under bettors on this one were happy.
Mandrews McHollywood (NYS) – under 74.5 Receiving yds; Welp, Mandrews did not break a long one or dinked their way down the field. New York only attempted 25 passes and wound up with 205 passing yards, so it is still a bit surprising that the teams 2nd most targeted player would get a decent chunk of that. But nope, New York spread it all around and McAndrews finished with only 2 catches, so not great for hitting the over. I wasn’t super confident in my guess so that’s why I didn’t put any money on it, but still surprised to see the low numbers.
Baltimore Total Offense – over 386.5 Total yds; I WAS confident in this one so I added an extra bet with this prop. This time, I’m thankful for overtime as that allowed Baltimore to get the additional yardage needed to hit the over. This offense is still legit and it’ll be hard to bet against them in future props.
Kumquat Archipelago (YKW) – over 89.5 Scrimmage yds; I should have gone with my gut on this one. YKW went back to their tried and true gameplan by dividing up the rushing touches equally, 19 for both, which allowed both backs to surpass 90 yards on the ground. Kumquat added an additional 31 receiving yards while Akinfenwa added 42 through the air. Arizona just hasn’t look like the reigning champs that they are so it might be time to not consider the defense to be shut down.
Rumble Ronson (CHI) – over 6.5 Tackles; I guess I didn’t expect 40 runs for Colorado, but I’m also not entirely sure if that’s what led to the tackles. Still a hard prop bet to figure out but it makes sense to me that teams that run more allow for more tackles from the linebacker group. I don’t know, I’m probably wrong, like I was with this prop.
CTC Defense – under 6.5 Pass Deflections; Berlin attempted 42 passes this game, only completing 28. So of those 14 incompletions, we would have needed half to be deflections. Quite a tall ask. Which is why they only ended up with 4, which is still good, but not for our betting purposes. All stars seemed to align for this one to work but in the end, it’s another coin flip type prop that I’ll hate forever.
So overall, 3 out of 7 isn’t the worst it could be so I won’t complain to bad. Last season, I was very up and down each week, so if this season follows that trend, week 8 is looking like a winner! Let’s look at these props:
Blaine Falco (NYS) – o/u 19.5 Completions; Falco is having a decent rookie season, averaging 20 completions on 34 attempts per game. Falco has 4 games above 20 completions and 3 games below. With being an underdog against Cape Town, I expect New York to need to pass more often than they typically do, leading to Falco hitting the over. Cape Towns pass defense is one of the worst in the league in terms of passing yards, so they should be able to get enough completions to make it a game.
Tyler One (OCO) – o/u 45.5 Rush yds; Tyler One is averaging a decent 11.4 carries per game in his rookie season. Looking at the game by game log, it’s hard to predict how this game will turn out for Tyler. He’s typically RB2 behind Cold and only has seen similar carries during definite wins. Going against Sarasota, the plan of attack should be to run more than pass, so even if OCO isn’t a favorite, I can see a path where Tyler sees enough attempts to reach the 46 yards needed to hit the over. So for that reason, I’m going over despite my gut feel.
NCADV RAINN (COL) – o/u 74.5 Receiving yds; Seems like phenssta has been phased out of the passing game a bit while RAINN and Hogmolly are the top targets. However, Colorado will go up against Austin this week, who boast the 2nd ranked pass defense in the league, only allowing 226.6 receiving yards per game. RAINN got us the over in week 6, albeit at the wire, so I think being one of the top targets for Colorado in a game that should see them pass more often will lead to the over getting hit on this bet.
Jayme Jayne Jay-Jaymison (AZ) -o/u 1.5 Missed Kicks; How? How is JJJJ 4/11 on the season? Jayme is 1/5 on field goals between 40 and 49 yards. One saving grace for JJJJ is the 100% extra point conversion rate. I did confirm that extra points are included in this prop. That being said, with only 26 attempts between extra points and field goals this season, which is about 3.5 per game, I just don’t see enough opportunity for Jayme to miss more than 1. Arizona hasn’t been the offensive force it usually is so without enough attempts to be able to miss, I’m taking the under.
Great Khali (AUS) – o/u 3.5 Pancakes; Great Khali is averaging just over 4 pancakes a game, so having a decent season so far for a rookie guard. Colorado, their opponent this week, presumably plays a 4-3 defense, where if the matchup is right for Khali, could see the weaker of the defensive tackles where the matchup is better. Looking a bit closer, tackles and then centers do the best against Colorado, with an occasional guard getting up there in pancakes. I’d imagine Khali will get in the 3-4 range, but that’s exactly where the prop is and why it’s tough. If it was 4.5, it’d be an easy under. But even still, with being a rookie lineman in a position that isn’t known for pancakes, I’ll take the under on this one but I don’t feel good about it.
Liath Squirrel (HON) – o/u 4.5 Tackles; Undefeated Honolulu has shown that their young defense is ready sooner than most people thought. Squirrel, who I considered one of the steals of the draft, is averaging just over 5 tackles a game. Their opponent, Baltimore, is always an above average plays per game team. Hayden will get the most of the action from the LB group, so it’ll be interesting to see if Squirrel or Freidman are the ones who will help clean up the rest. With the above average offense of Baltimore, I think there is enough to go around for Squirrel to hit the over.
I should probably only do a 2-leg parlay this week but I’m giving it a yolo as I’m feeling lucky. For the parlay, I’ll be going with the Falco over, JJJJ under, and Squirrel over. I’ll have a decent amount on each bet except the Khali bet as I have little confidence in my under. Looks like another rookie centered week, so I’m curious how our rookie prop writers do!
OCO/HON – under 249.5 Rush yds; This was ended up being really close but thankfully not quite enough to hit the over. There were a couple long rushes in there that worried me but ultimately neither team was quite dominant enough on the ground to make it happen. I’ll take the W on this one.
Deshawn Penne (AUS) – under 4.5 Receptions; Either everyone followed our advice or we all thought the same thing as I am pretty confident anyone who bet on this prop took the under. With only 2 catches (but 1 was a TD, yay!), it wasn’t even close. I guess I should have been more confident in this one. Penne is having a disappointing season for sure, but the under bettors on this one were happy.
Mandrews McHollywood (NYS) – under 74.5 Receiving yds; Welp, Mandrews did not break a long one or dinked their way down the field. New York only attempted 25 passes and wound up with 205 passing yards, so it is still a bit surprising that the teams 2nd most targeted player would get a decent chunk of that. But nope, New York spread it all around and McAndrews finished with only 2 catches, so not great for hitting the over. I wasn’t super confident in my guess so that’s why I didn’t put any money on it, but still surprised to see the low numbers.
Baltimore Total Offense – over 386.5 Total yds; I WAS confident in this one so I added an extra bet with this prop. This time, I’m thankful for overtime as that allowed Baltimore to get the additional yardage needed to hit the over. This offense is still legit and it’ll be hard to bet against them in future props.
Kumquat Archipelago (YKW) – over 89.5 Scrimmage yds; I should have gone with my gut on this one. YKW went back to their tried and true gameplan by dividing up the rushing touches equally, 19 for both, which allowed both backs to surpass 90 yards on the ground. Kumquat added an additional 31 receiving yards while Akinfenwa added 42 through the air. Arizona just hasn’t look like the reigning champs that they are so it might be time to not consider the defense to be shut down.
Rumble Ronson (CHI) – over 6.5 Tackles; I guess I didn’t expect 40 runs for Colorado, but I’m also not entirely sure if that’s what led to the tackles. Still a hard prop bet to figure out but it makes sense to me that teams that run more allow for more tackles from the linebacker group. I don’t know, I’m probably wrong, like I was with this prop.
CTC Defense – under 6.5 Pass Deflections; Berlin attempted 42 passes this game, only completing 28. So of those 14 incompletions, we would have needed half to be deflections. Quite a tall ask. Which is why they only ended up with 4, which is still good, but not for our betting purposes. All stars seemed to align for this one to work but in the end, it’s another coin flip type prop that I’ll hate forever.
So overall, 3 out of 7 isn’t the worst it could be so I won’t complain to bad. Last season, I was very up and down each week, so if this season follows that trend, week 8 is looking like a winner! Let’s look at these props:
Blaine Falco (NYS) – o/u 19.5 Completions; Falco is having a decent rookie season, averaging 20 completions on 34 attempts per game. Falco has 4 games above 20 completions and 3 games below. With being an underdog against Cape Town, I expect New York to need to pass more often than they typically do, leading to Falco hitting the over. Cape Towns pass defense is one of the worst in the league in terms of passing yards, so they should be able to get enough completions to make it a game.
Tyler One (OCO) – o/u 45.5 Rush yds; Tyler One is averaging a decent 11.4 carries per game in his rookie season. Looking at the game by game log, it’s hard to predict how this game will turn out for Tyler. He’s typically RB2 behind Cold and only has seen similar carries during definite wins. Going against Sarasota, the plan of attack should be to run more than pass, so even if OCO isn’t a favorite, I can see a path where Tyler sees enough attempts to reach the 46 yards needed to hit the over. So for that reason, I’m going over despite my gut feel.
NCADV RAINN (COL) – o/u 74.5 Receiving yds; Seems like phenssta has been phased out of the passing game a bit while RAINN and Hogmolly are the top targets. However, Colorado will go up against Austin this week, who boast the 2nd ranked pass defense in the league, only allowing 226.6 receiving yards per game. RAINN got us the over in week 6, albeit at the wire, so I think being one of the top targets for Colorado in a game that should see them pass more often will lead to the over getting hit on this bet.
Jayme Jayne Jay-Jaymison (AZ) -o/u 1.5 Missed Kicks; How? How is JJJJ 4/11 on the season? Jayme is 1/5 on field goals between 40 and 49 yards. One saving grace for JJJJ is the 100% extra point conversion rate. I did confirm that extra points are included in this prop. That being said, with only 26 attempts between extra points and field goals this season, which is about 3.5 per game, I just don’t see enough opportunity for Jayme to miss more than 1. Arizona hasn’t been the offensive force it usually is so without enough attempts to be able to miss, I’m taking the under.
Great Khali (AUS) – o/u 3.5 Pancakes; Great Khali is averaging just over 4 pancakes a game, so having a decent season so far for a rookie guard. Colorado, their opponent this week, presumably plays a 4-3 defense, where if the matchup is right for Khali, could see the weaker of the defensive tackles where the matchup is better. Looking a bit closer, tackles and then centers do the best against Colorado, with an occasional guard getting up there in pancakes. I’d imagine Khali will get in the 3-4 range, but that’s exactly where the prop is and why it’s tough. If it was 4.5, it’d be an easy under. But even still, with being a rookie lineman in a position that isn’t known for pancakes, I’ll take the under on this one but I don’t feel good about it.
Liath Squirrel (HON) – o/u 4.5 Tackles; Undefeated Honolulu has shown that their young defense is ready sooner than most people thought. Squirrel, who I considered one of the steals of the draft, is averaging just over 5 tackles a game. Their opponent, Baltimore, is always an above average plays per game team. Hayden will get the most of the action from the LB group, so it’ll be interesting to see if Squirrel or Freidman are the ones who will help clean up the rest. With the above average offense of Baltimore, I think there is enough to go around for Squirrel to hit the over.
I should probably only do a 2-leg parlay this week but I’m giving it a yolo as I’m feeling lucky. For the parlay, I’ll be going with the Falco over, JJJJ under, and Squirrel over. I’ll have a decent amount on each bet except the Khali bet as I have little confidence in my under. Looks like another rookie centered week, so I’m curious how our rookie prop writers do!
"...and has what is honestly the most bizarre attachment to ISFL fantasy football and user bets..." - aeonsjenni