Prompt 5 Wrote:“Sim gonna sim” is a popular expression in the league. Write about teams that have been graced by the sim gods and had amazing performances despite statistical odds, and/or about teams that were considered favorites but may have dealt with some bad sim luck that hampered their efforts. How much of an impact did it have on their season(s)?
Austin was on the bad side of a lot of questionable sim decisions this season, and it hurt extra hard since any single additional win would have gotten us into the playoffs. Of the 8 games we lost, only 2 were by more than 1 score - winning one more was very doable. The most painful game, though, was definitely week 16 vs. Honolulu.
We were playing against the Hahalua where if we won the game, we'd be in the playoffs and if they won then they were either in (if Orange County lost) or in a tiebreaker situation that I don't know the winner of offhand (if the Otters won). As for the game itself, it started off well for us in the first half, with the halftime score being 14-3 in our favor. We got another field goal in the 3rd quarter, followed by giving up a big kickoff return that led to a 5-play 2:35 drive for a Honolulu touchdown. Our next drive was a 3 and out with the punt only netting 20 yards, allowing Honolulu to take advantage of the short field and get a field goal, making it 17-12 with 1:21 left in the quarter. Our next drive stalled around midfield, though we did manage to pin them at the 1-yard line with 12:56 left in the 4th quarter. We didn't capitalize on that as well as we could, eventually giving up a field goal after they gained 64 yards, taking 5:56. We traded 3 and outs, finally getting the ball back to set up the real sim simming moment.
Our cursed drive started at 3:29 on our own 2. We had a 17-15 lead and the Hahalua still had all their timeouts. We got them to burn through those through 9 straight runs and gave us the situation of 4th and inches from the Honolulu 42 yard line with 1:16 left. The 42 is definitely a little far to expect a field goal from, so I wouldn't expect that. The team's strategy had (per GMs, I didn't check myself) been set to be maximally aggressive on 4th down, and seeing as the past 9 plays had been runs and a first down would seal the game, clearly a great situation for us, and failing to convert would not be much worse than a punt/touchback - Honolulu would still only have a hair over a minute with no timeouts. The sim did the dumbest possible choice, though, and punted. Worse, it netted only 19 yards and they took over the ball on the 23 - worse than actually getting a touchback. 5 passes and a spike to stop the clock got them to the Austin 42 (the equivalent place where we'd been on our last drive for the extra dagger), and kicked a field goal to take an 18-17 lead with 13 seconds left. We did get to run one play and even picked up 38 yards, but that was still the end as time ran out.
So, with the settings for aggression and the effective situation of winning if we converted, I absolutely cannot get over the sim not going for it on the 4th down and punting instead. And if it did insist on punting, letting them return to get a better field position than a touchback feels even worse.
As a somewhat tangential point and definitely not something people don't already know, the sim's time management is insanely horrible vs. actual NFL football. We took over on the cursed drive with 3:29 and ran 9 runs (with one enhanced by penalty). That late in the 4th quarter with a lead, the main goal should be getting first downs and draining the clock. The sim, however, had plays taking (post-punt) 9, 35, 35, (timeout) 2, (timeout) 8, (timeout) 1, (2 minute warning) 4, 21, and 23 seconds (and then 15 for the punt itself). Those last 2 runs and the punt itself should have each taken more like 40-45 seconds - if they'd each been exactly 40, that would have taken 61 more seconds - and Honolulu got the ball back with exactly 61 seconds on the clock. I know that unrealistic clock is just something we have to live with and I'm sure that Austin has also benefited from it in other games, but it was super painful for this game given that it's directly not allowing us to make the playoffs.
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