07-14-2024, 09:26 PM
(This post was last modified: 07-16-2024, 09:43 PM by lemonoppy. Edited 1 time in total.)
The Unofficial Preseason Rankings of the ISFL
Season 49 Edition
Hello everyone! It’s time for another set of preseason rankings for the start of Season 49. Below, I will go over how the rankings are created in case you need a refresher or haven’t seen them before. So skip ahead to the rankings if the math doesn’t interest you.
The Math Behind the Rankings
In order to come up with a score for each team, I took a look at three categories: the TPE of the presumed starting 11 offensive players (including oline bots), the TPE of the presumed starting 11 defensive players, and the TPE of the quarterback (a second time!).
While raw TPE is one of our measures of how skilled a player is, there is a point where more TPE doesn't actually increase the skill of the player. While this cap is different for each archetype, the amount of TPE that a player contributes to the team total will stop at that value for this exercise (this is between 1165 and 1355). So a player with over that value only contributes up to their archetype cap.
With each of these scores calculated, I standardized each TPE total separately (Yes this is a small sample size and probably not normally distributed but it works for what I want it to do!) A team’s preseason rating was then the sum of these three z-scores. To take it a step further, if each team's sum was rounded to the nearest whole number, that became my prediction on how many games above or below .500 a team will finish this year. (With slight adjustments made for season records to work out right.)
Of note: All community data is from the season predictions sheet if you put in your values before 8:45pm CST and includes 153 responses.
Onto the rankings!
14.
Colorado Yeti Offensive TPE: 5901 (14th)
Defensive TPE: 6625 (12th)
QB TPE: 350 (14th)
S48 Result: 0-16, 7th Place in the NSFC
S49 Prediction: 1-15, 7th Place in the NSFC
The Colorado Yeti are coming off a winless season and have lost 28 games in a row. They still have a very low team TPE (especially on offense) and are playing the long game. This team is admittedly better than last year’s group but that’s not saying much. Of course, there are many young players on this team and they should keep getting better and better.
Star Players
S Mary Marie / @aeonsjenni
Young Players (S47 - S49): 14
Community Prediction: 7th Place in the NSFC (1 Regular Season Champion Vote)
Playoff Chances: 3.92%
1st Place Votes: 2
2nd Place Votes: 2
3rd Place Votes: 2
4th Place Votes: 0
5th Place Votes: 5
6th Place Votes: 6
7th Place Votes: 136
13.
Orange County Otters Offensive TPE: 6523 (13th)
Defensive TPE: 5980 (14th)
QB TPE: 1011 (9th)
S48 Result: 8-8, 4th Place in the ASFC
S49 Prediction: 5-11, 7th Place in the ASFC
The Otters find themselves hit hard by regression and are looking to punt on the season in hopes of finding some good players in the season 50 draft. After going all in a few seasons ago, Orange County is trying to find ways to jumpstart the rebuild. Orange County may be a team that is looking to make some trades in season to teams wanting a rental veteran or two for a playoff push.
Star Players
QB Lloyd Bannings / @bowl0
Young Players (S47 - S49): 8
Community Prediction: 7th Place in the ASFC (2 Regular Season Champion Votes)
Playoff Chances: 5.23%
1st Place Votes: 2
2nd Place Votes: 3
3rd Place Votes: 3
4th Place Votes: 11
5th Place Votes: 9
6th Place Votes:35
7th Place Votes: 90
12.
New York Silverbacks Offensive TPE: 7287 (10th)
Defensive TPE: 6852 (11th)
QB TPE: 702 (10th)
S48 Results: 4-12, 7th Place in the ASFC
S49 Prediction: 6-10, 6th Place in the ASFC
The Silverbacks are looking to rebound after a disappointing season last time around and have given the keys to a new Quarterback in Elijah Dyson. Their former top players in RB Frank Dux and WR Sean Robinson have been beaten down by regression and the rest of the offense is young and unproven. On the defensive side, the secondary is still strong but that’s about it. New York should be better than last season but they still have a long way to go before they are considered contenders.
Star Players
S Loose Cannon / @Jumbo
K/P Wing Wang / @platanocat
Young Players (S47 - S49): 6
Community Prediction: 6th Place in the ASFC (0 Regular Season Champion Votes)
Playoff Chances: 4.58%
1st Place Votes: 1
2nd Place Votes: 1
3rd Place Votes: 5
4th Place Votes: 16
5th Place Votes: 29
6th Place Votes: 62
7th Place Votes: 39
11.
Sarasota Sailfish Offensive TPE: 6948 (11th)
Defensive TPE: 9221 (3rd)
QB TPE: 651 (13th)
S48 Result: 8-8, 5th Place in the NSFC
S49 Prediction: 7-9, 6th Place in the NSFC
The Sailfish hope that a top defense can help carry a rookie quarterback and an offense that relies on an aging star running back. Look for Sarasota to be in a lot of close games this season and thus the success of the season will be determined by if the offense can find ways to score in clutch situations. With some other quality teams in the NSFC, it might be difficult for the Sailfish to sneak into the playoffs.
Star Players
LB Ignatious Cleetington / 110radio
CB Spruce Willis / FootballIsCool
RB Ace Anderson / DangWookie
LB Max Honestly / Sizz
LB Ali Star / ProdigalSon
S Jamie Orion / Piercewise1
Young Players (S47 - S49): 6
Community Prediction: 6th Place in the NSFC (0 Regular Season Champion Votes)
Playoff Chances: 3.27%
1st Place Votes: 3
2nd Place Votes: 2
3rd Place Votes: 0
4th Place Votes: 8
5th Place Votes: 91
6th Place Votes: 47
7th Place Votes: 2
10.
Berlin Fire Salamanders Offensive TPE: 6641 (12th)
Defensive TPE: 7384 (10th)
QB TPE: 1180 (7th)
S48 Results: 6-10, 6th Place in the NSFC
S49 Prediction: 7-9, 5th Place in the NSFC
The Fire Salamanders have been an aerial show the last number of seasons and are set up to be part of some offensive fireworks once again with Pitter Patter and Willie Swaggert looking to improve on their connection with Tuna TurnDaBallOva. With the offense set up to score points in a hurry, the Fire Salamanders are a team that can beat anyone. Of course they also will lose games they are supposed to win. It will all come down to figuring out some sort of consistency before Berlin is considered one of the better teams in the league.
Star Players
QB Tuna TurnDaBallOva / @SomeSay...
LB Mike Gesicki / @Mossed26
Young Players (S47 - S49): 11
Community Prediction: 5th Place in the NSFC (0 Regular Season Champion Votes)
Playoff Chances: 9.80%
1st Place Votes: 0
2nd Place Votes: 5
3rd Place Votes: 10
4th Place Votes: 31
5th Place Votes: 21
6th Place Votes: 85
7th Place Votes: 1
9.
Arizona Outlaws Offensive TPE: 8497 (6th)
Defensive TPE: 8053 (9th)
QB TPE: 700 (11th)
S48 Result: 11-5, 2nd Place in the ASFC, Conference Championship Loss
S49 Prediction: 8-8, 5th Place in the ASFC
The Outlaws season outlook really comes down to if rookie quarterback Puddles O’Duck can come in and repeat the success of his predecessor, Donovan Winters III. The rest of the offense is great and the defense is weakening but still not bad. Does this mean that Arizona is going to miss out on the playoffs? Historically, that doesn’t really happen but it won’t be easy this time around.
Star Players
LB Thomas Sutha / @lemonoppy
WR Jordan Bamford / @"Bamford13"
RB Bertie Mannering-Phipps / @bernardhibou
WR Benji Aguilera / @CROney3
CB Paul Dosza / @.simo
Young Players (S47 - S49): 3
Community Prediction: 2nd Place in the ASFC (23 Regular Season Champion Votes)
Playoff Chances: 93.46%
1st Place Votes: 28
2nd Place Votes: 25
3rd Place Votes: 90
4th Place Votes: 6
5th Place Votes: 2
6th Place Votes: 1
7th Place Votes: 1
8.
Honolulu Hahalua Offensive TPE: 8198 (7th)
Defensive TPE: 6584 (13th)
QB TPE: 1215 (6th)
S48 Result: 6-10, 5th Place in the ASFC
S49 Prediction: 8-8, 4th Place in the ASFC
Honolulu has been trying to build up a solid young roster for a few seasons and we could see the first fruits of that this season. At this point, the offense is significantly ahead of the defense and I would expect lots of points to be scored in any game the Hahalua play in. With a few breaks going their way, Honolulu could see themselves in the playoffs this season though realistically they are a season away still.
Star Players
RB Stetson Davis / @oilmandan
QB Leonard McRobinson / @shadyshoelace
K/P Ray Baker / @jdc4654
Young Players (S47 - S49): 12
Community Prediction: 4th Place in the ASFC (0 Regular Season Champion Votes)
Playoff Chances: 7.84%
1st Place Votes: 2
2nd Place Votes: 3
3rd Place Votes: 7
4th Place Votes: 65
5th Place Votes: 37
6th Place Votes: 35
7th Place Votes: 4
7.
Osaka Kaiju Offensive TPE: 8700 (4th)
Defensive TPE: 8644 (5th)
QB TPE: 687 (12th)
S48 Results: 11-5, 2nd Place in the NSFC, Wildcard Loss
S49 Prediction: 8-8. 4th Place in the NSFC
The inaugural season for Osaka comes off the heels of some surprise finishes when the team was in Chicago. Another team with a rookie quarterback, Russell Jimmies might have the best setup to succeed immediately. With three offensive skill players over 1000 TPE, the Kaiju need their new QB to play like a veteran. If he can, the rest of the ISFL will soon learn that the Kaiju are a good team, not a team full of sim luck.
Star Players
WR Sem’ga Nah’sim / @TheCC
CB Heiiajs D. Owidhuse / @firstfray
RB Triceracop / @Triceracop
WR Diego López de Castilla / @DL14
Young Players (S47 - S49): 4
Community Prediction: 3rd Place in the ASFC (0 Regular Season Champion Votes)
Playoff Chances: 51.63%
1st Place Votes: 5
2nd Place Votes: 34
3rd Place Votes: 40
4th Place Votes: 50
5th Place Votes: 18
6th Place Votes: 4
7th Place Votes: 2
6.
Austin Copperheads Offensive TPE: 7381 (9th)
Defensive TPE: 8170 (8th)
QB TPE: 1260 (T-1st)
S48 Result: 5-11, 6th Place in the ASFC
S49 Prediction: 9-7, 3rd Place in the ASFC
The Copperheads boast the two highest earners in the league right now with Jay Cue III and Crasher Wake. Along with a very solid secondary, it seems that Austin has the requisite number of star players to be a force this season. However, they don’t have very many of the 2nd tier level players and are especially lacking in star power at the receiver position. Is a team with a bunch of top level talent surrounded by replacement level players good enough?
Star Players
QB Jay Cue III / @Opera_Phantom
LB Crasher Wake / @ZodiacEXE
S Robert Green / @RobJG2
CB Trent Thigpen / @GrimmCrackers
CB Gajeel Redfox / @AJay887
Young Players (S47 - S49): 10
Community Prediction: 5th Place in the ASFC (0 Regular Season Champion Votes)
Playoff Chances: 5.23%
1st Place Votes: 0
2nd Place Votes: 1
3rd Place Votes: 7
4th Place Votes: 48
5th Place Votes: 72
6th Place Votes: 12
7th Place Votes: 13
5.
Yellowknife Wraiths Offensive TPE: 7788 (8th)
Defensive TPE: 8226 (7th)
QB TPE: 1260 (T-1st)
S48 Result: 9-7, 4th Place in the NSFC
S49 Prediction: 9-7, 3rd Place in the NSFC
Yellowknife has fallen into that good but not great tier of teams for a number of seasons now and it looks like that’s right where they belong again. With a maxed out quarterback and two solid receivers, look for the Wraiths to try to win games through the air. Their defense should be able to make big plays again this season with solid players at every level. Yellowknife should be good enough to return to the playoffs and then anything can happen.
Star Players
QB Maximus Boudreaux / @ZootTX
K/P Zenzeroni Xystarch II / @lock180
LB Thor Dangerson / @homercrates
S Luke Hunter / @TubaDeus
LB Cheecago Boucher / @UberBJ
WR Nick Williams / @nickWilliams
Young Players (S47 - S49): 5
Community Prediction: 4th Place in the NSFC (3 Regular Season Champion Vote)
Playoff Chances: 45.75%
1st Place Votes: 5
2nd Place Votes: 24
3rd Place Votes: 41
4th Place Votes: 54
5th Place Votes: 13
6th Place Votes: 9
7th Place Votes: 7
4.
Cape Town Crash Offensive TPE: 8584 (5th)
Defensive TPE: 8764 (4th)
QB TPE: 1260 (T-1st)
S48 Result: 12-4, 1st Place in the NSFC, Conference Championship Loss
S49 Prediction: 10-6, 2nd Place in the NSFC
This season’s Crash have lost a little of their dominance on the defensive side of the ball through regression. However, they have a maxed out quarterback with solid (but not great) skill position players so maybe a slight dip on defense isn’t noticeable. With the offense on the rist and the defense in decline, this season may be the most balanced Crash team we will see in awhile. But ultimately, Cape Town will go as far as Thor Bǫllrsveifla can take them.
Star Players
QB Thor Bǫllrsveifla / @Thor
CB Luigi Numberone / @ztarwarz
CB Legs McMillion / @jollyjiggs
Young Players (S47 - S49): 4
Community Prediction: 2nd Place in the NSFC (2 Regular Season Champion Votes)
Playoff Chances: 90.85%
1st Place Votes: 5
2nd Place Votes: 79
3rd Place Votes: 55
4th Place Votes: 9
5th Place Votes: 3
6th Place Votes: 0
7th Place Votes: 2
3.
San Jose SaberCats Offensive TPE: 9153 (1st)
Defensive TPE: 8565 (6th)
QB TPE: 1160 (T-1st)
S48 Result: 10-6, 3rd Place in the ASFC, Wildcard Loss
S49 Prediction: 11-5, 2nd Place in the ASFC
While the SaberCats dominated with defense last season, the focal point will switch this time around. Boasting the highest TPE offense with a maxed out QB and top options at receiver and running back, San Jose should be able to put up points with ease. While the defense has still gone through some regression, they still return 3 1st team All-Pro defenders. A team that has been close for a number of seasons, an offensive resurgence is their hope for achieving the Ultimus goal.
Star Players
CB Blacksmith Andre / @Muford
QB Josh Patterson / @Tylertokesome04
WR Keanu Calhoun / @Frostbite
RB Kit Fisto / @Pvtpenne
LB DJ Maclean / @Urq660
WR Orange Julius / @OrangeJulius
Young Players (S47 - S49): 4
Community Prediction: 3rd Place in the ASFC (1 Regular Season Champion Vote)
Playoff Chances: 87.58%
1st Place Votes: 3
2nd Place Votes: 94
3rd Place Votes: 37
4th Place Votes: 4
5th Place Votes: 1
6th Place Votes: 8
7th Place Votes: 6
2.
Baltimore Hawks Offensive TPE: 8903 (3nd)
Defensive TPE: 9745 (2nd)
QB TPE: 1121 (8th)
S48 Result: 10-6, 3rd Place in the NSFC, Ultimus Loss
S49 Prediction: 11-5, 1st Place in the NSFC
The runner’s up from last season bring back essentially the same team in hopes of making it all the way to the top this time around. While an 8th straight playoff appearance seems likely for the Hawks, coming within a quarter of claiming the Ultimus makes anything less a disappointment. With high earners all over the roster, Baltimore should be right in the mix once again. To be truly special however, Anakin Skywalker and Reginald Shrubbery must once again be able to put the team on their backs.
Stars Players
CB Dino Nuggets / @swoosh
RB Anakin Skywalker / @ForSucksFake
RB Reginald Shrubbery / @shrub02
DT Carter Goad / @caleb.grim
LB Joe Bazooka / @Bazooka_Joe
LB Federico Americano / @MN_Moosey
WR Emile Charles / @Number 82
QB Wolfie McDummy Jr. / @infinitempg
S Chappy McChapperson / @Charple
Young Players (S47 - S49): 4
Community Prediction: 1st Place in the NSFC (56 Regular Season Champion Votes)
Playoff Chances: 94.77%
1st Place Votes: 133
2nd Place Votes: 7
3rd Place Votes: 5
4th Place Votes: 1
5th Place Votes: 2
6th Place Votes: 2
7th Place Votes: 3
1.
New Orleans Secondline Offensive TPE: 9108 (2nd)
Defensive TPE: 11165 (1st)
QB TPE: 1225 (5th)
S48 Results: 12-4, 1st Place in the ASFC, Ultimus Winner
S49 Prediction: 12-4, 1st Place in the ASFC
Season 48 saw the Secondline reach the top of the mountain and complete a long overdue process of turning the team around. However, it appears that the team is not one and done. Bringing back a roster with just as much talent as last season, New Orleans should be able to dominate teams in any way they choose. Winning back to back championships would make the redemption story even sweeter. Can they do it once again?
Star Players
LB Allister Adebam / @MobiausGrander
WR Thomas Passarelli / @Tmoney6996
WR Hank Mardukas / @Chicken Lips
QB Octavion Speedings / @CeeKay
LB Josh Gibson / @DoubleDub
S Scott Junior / @JoeSteel
CB Ezra Azazel / @baz
DT Doctor Who / @thewhovian
DT Bruce White / @toofpete
S Paul Edgecomb / @TomHanks
RB Kyle Crane / @Ultimatedestroye
Young Players (S47 - S49): 4
Community Prediction: 1st Place in the ASFC (64 Regular Season Champion Votes)
Playoff Chances: 96.08%
1st Place Votes: 117
2nd Place Votes: 26
3rd Place Votes: 4
4th Place Votes: 3
5th Place Votes: 3
6th Place Votes: 0
7th Place Votes: 0
That’s it for these rankings and wraps up our look into Season 49! Let everyone know how you think your team will do this time around!
![[Image: 9EbdjOK.png?format=webp&quality=lossless...height=811]](https://images-ext-1.discordapp.net/external/JtTnW9MfRwUe9fBX3hZbmCgmOKwUyZmidcZ7Dckxcjc/https/i.imgur.com/9EbdjOK.png?format=webp&quality=lossless&width=1441&height=811)
DSFL S43 Draft - Round 4 Pick 30 ISFL S44 Draft - Round 1 Pick 12 S43 DSFL Pro Bowl S44 DSFL Pro Bowl S45 All Rookie Team S48 ISFL Pro Bowl S48 ISFL 2nd Team All-Pro Gemini Media Awards
14 Gemini Nominations
Best Article (Limited) - S43 "Do Penalties Really Matter?"
Best Author - S43, S44
