03-05-2023, 10:08 AM
(This post was last modified: 03-12-2023, 10:27 AM by Aneeqs. Edited 11 times in total.)
Hello one and all! Welcome to a look at the Wizard's Orb: DSFL Predictions Week 2! Let's see what the wizard has seen after pondering his orb over the last week.
A Gaze Into The Past:
Let's take a quick look at my predictions from last week and see how I did. Looks like I tally up to 5-3. Not great, but not terrible. I'll have to recalibrate my orb for the week 5/6 predictions. Notably Bondi Beach and Kansas City both proved my 0-3 start predictions wrong, with each team securing a win against Portland. It looks like there will be a lot of parity in the DSFL this season with no team sitting undefeated, nor winless after 4 weeks.
Week 2:
Matchup : Pred : Result
@ 
: : W
@ 
: : W
@ 
: : W
@ 
: : L
Week 3:
Matchup : Pred : Result
@ : : W
@ : : L
@ : : L
@ : : W
Effective TPE Update:
![[Image: XhbiWJt.png]](https://i.imgur.com/XhbiWJt.png)
Last week I took a look at effective TPE for each of the DSFL teams. My claim then was that we could make some early season predictions using that chart. As we get further into the season I'll start to look at statistical averages in addition to effective TPE to better empower predictions. One thing to note is that Total Effective TPE might also jump considerably for a team due to addition of a midseason waiver wire pickup. I'll try to work the increases into this chart moving forward but I couldn't find a good way to format it for getting this out on time.
Minnesota/Tijuana/Norfolk lead the pack again to nobodies surprise as all three teams had a commanding lead last week, while Portland drops a spot because they were leap frogged by the Buccaneers. Bondi Beach made a huge jump in the charts moving from 7th to 4th! They saw a net gain of 532 total, and their average went up by an astounding 17 indicating their rise is not solely due to waiver pickups. I did predict last week we'd see them move up the charts due to their rookie heavy roster, but I did not expect it to happen so soon.
Towards the bottom of the chart Dallas was able to move up over the Royals likely due to the Wolfie McDummy Jr. update. And against what their record on the field would show, KCC remains last again. Overall there aren't many interesting trends to highlight other than seeing BBB jump by over 500 TPE. Every team looks to be making steady gains, but it's clear that these numbers are only a partial indicator of a teams potential. Maybe I'll drop them going forward and look at actual football stats. Currently SOS is going to skew numbers like yards/points per game though. We'll have to wait until week 8 to get the full picture.
POWER RANKINGS:
Now that we have 4 games under our belt I'm going to start doing Power Rankings based on current standings rather that my predictions.
1a. 1985 Chicago Bears
1b. Norfolk Seawolves (3-1) +1
2. Tijuana Luchadores (3-1) +3
4. London Royals (2-2) -2
4. Kansas City Coyotes (2-2) +4
5. Bondi Beach Buccaneers (2-2) +2
6. Dallas Birddogs (2-2) +0
7. Portland Pythons (1-3) -3
8. Minnesota Greyducks (1-3) -5
Norfolk goes up one spot after an impressive week. They didn't finish strong against KCC, but I'm not convinced that loss is enough to write them off. Our largest movers are Tijuana and Kansas City jumping 3 and 4 spots respectively in the rankings. By the numbers these two teams are near the top of the league both offensively and defensively, and both teams have impressive wins to back up the numbers.
Bondi Beach similarly moves up a few spots after beating Portland and London. The Buccs top ranked offense behind Wide Receivers Plant Based and Kairo Knight is something every team needs to respect. On the defensive side of the ball 1st overall pick Mary Marie is proving her worth with a game clenching forced fumble against Portland. Watch out for this Bondi defense down the stretch as young rookies continue to make TPE improvements. The Royals didn't live up to my expectations from last week and drop 2 spots. However they still sit at the top of the North Division. The offense has been the highlight for the Royals with their returning cast of starters. We'll have to see if their rookie heavy defense can make some plays in the coming weeks.
Spots 6-8 are a close race between three teams have promise but have struggled early on this season. Quick disclaimer here that's relevant to the topic of SOS we won't have a clear indication until week 8 when every team has faced off at least once. So while the nature of Power Rankings requires me to put teams towards at the bottom, it is by no means a fully accurate indication this early in the season.
Portland dropped games to both of my previous bottom feeders Bondi Beach and Kansas City so I'm moving them down a few spots. While I think Portland is significantly better than their record reflects given their Strength of Schedule, we'll need to see that translate to the field before I'm confident ranking them higher. Dallas showed promise picking up wins against Bondi Beach and Minnesota. Again this is a team that's had a tough SOS with matchups against some of the leagues top offenses, which might indicate why they're sporting the leagues worst defense giving up 36.8 points and 452.8 yards per game. I'll likely be eating my hat for leaving them at down here at 6. Minnesota is the most surprising outcome for me after 4 weeks. Despite the TPE numbers, their offense hasn't been able to put together nearly anything so far. Their tandem of quarterbacks Painted Penguin and Blaine Falco will need t up their game if the Ducks want to stay in the playoff hunt.
Pondering the Orb(Predictions):
For full transparency here these predictions are done using the following factors:
1. Current standings and statistical trends.
2. Sim testing. I did run these games in the sim using the Week 4 file, however that does not account for this weeks updates or any game planning GMs might do.
3. Effective TPE standings.
Week 5:
Dallas Birddogs @ Portland Pythons
Birddogs 24 : Pythons 25
After a blowout in week one Dallas has clawed their way back to a 2-2 record. I told you not to sleep on these puppers! Portland inversely has dropped 3 games in a row after their week one win over effective TPE leader Minnesota. I think the Python offense makes a turn around against a league worst Dallas defense in a late game comeback I'm taking Portland by 1 point.
Tijuana Luchadores @ Minnesota Greyducks
Luchadores 24 : Greyducks 17
The Luchadores offense lead by rookie QB Lloyd "The Banhammer" Bannings has been hyper efficient all season outside of the loss to Norfolk in week 2, while the Greyducks offense is dead last in points per game. This looks to be a close game with the Greyduck defense stepping up, but ultimately I don't think their offense does enough to put them over the edge.
Bondi Beach Buccaneers @ Kansas City Coyotes
Buccaneers 41 : Coyotes 31
Game of the week! We've got a face off of the Buccs league leading offense(35.2ppg) against the Coyotes stout defense(22.2ppga). I had both these teams as dark horses for a late season run, but it looks like they took that personally. Both teams showed up big in their respective week 4 matchups upsetting Norfolk and London who were previously 1/2 in my power rankings. I think the Buccs offense finally breaks the Kansas City secondary in a shootout win.
London Royals @ Norfolk Seawolves
Royals 17 : Seawolves 45
London lost some stock after loses to Tijuana and Bondi Beach, and Norfolk's head of steam was stopped in its tracks by the Coyotes in week 4. I'm chalking the Norfolk loss up to "Sim gonna sim" as they right the ship week 5 with a win over London.
Week 6:
Kansas City Coyotes @ Dallas Birddogs
Coyotes 30 : Birddogs 31
I probably should've learned my lesson in doubting the reigning champs last week, but I truly think Dallas is better than their numbers indicate. This game could go either way but I'm gonna throw a bone to the Birddogs and have faith in their offense.
Bondi Beach Buccaneers @ Tijuana Luchadores
Buccaneers 29 : Luchadores 35
Game of the Week! I might've predicted a Buccaneers win here if @Jaywe88 hadn't scolded me for predicting two Tijuana losses last week. There's no doubt the Lucha offense will put up points, but this game will be decided by if recent Cornerback switch Ezra Azazel and the Tijuana Defense can stop the potent Buccaneers Receiver core.
Minnesota Greyducks @ Norfolk Seawolves
Greyducks 24 : Seawolves 34
Outside of one hiccup the Seawolves defense has just been too good. The Greyducks stand a fighting chance if they can lock down star Wideout Legs McMillion, but that's a tall order to ask of any defense.
Portland Pythons @ London Royals
Pythons 24 : Royals 27
After a predicted tough loss to Norfolk, I have the Royals bouncing back here against the Pythons. However, I've been surprised to see the Pythons strapping front 7 lead by Bruce White give up 35 points per game. If they can sure up some issues and stop Royals Running Back Lord Farquaads, they just might be able to squeeze out a win.
Week 7:
Dallas Birddogs @ London Royals
Birddogs 29 : Royals 41
Until I see otherwise from Dallas, the London Offense has too many receiving options for this Dallas secondary to cover. Dallas is able to put up points and keep it close but London comes out on top with a few late touchdowns.
Kansas City Coyotes @ Tijuana Luchadores
Coyotes 27 : Luchadores 24
The KCC defense shows up with speed rusher Ryan Lawrence and league leading tackler BOT Big Bad Wolf getting to the Quarterback and putting a halt on the powerful Lucha offense.
Minnesota Greyducks @ Bondi Beach Buccaneers
Greyducks 28 : Buccaneers 41
I'm making the safe prediction with the Bondi Beach offense rolling against the struggling Greyducks. Don't be surprised though if Minnesota makes some adjustments after a rough 1-3 start and comes out with a win here. They lead the league in Effective TPE and that can't be ignored.
Norfolk Seawolves @ Portland Pythons
Seawolves 37 : Pythons 31
Game of the Week! Rico Savage faces off against Bruce White! Expect at least 60-70 hand pumps as the Norfolk offense squeezes out an overtime victory.
Predicted Standings After Week 7:
North
1. London 4-3
2. Kansas City 3-4
3. Portland 2-5
4. Minnesota 1-6
South
1. Norfolk 6-1
2. Tijuana 5-2
3. Bondi Beach 4-3
4. Dallas 3-4
A Gaze Into The Past:
Let's take a quick look at my predictions from last week and see how I did. Looks like I tally up to 5-3. Not great, but not terrible. I'll have to recalibrate my orb for the week 5/6 predictions. Notably Bondi Beach and Kansas City both proved my 0-3 start predictions wrong, with each team securing a win against Portland. It looks like there will be a lot of parity in the DSFL this season with no team sitting undefeated, nor winless after 4 weeks.
Week 2:
Matchup : Pred : Result
@ : : W @ : : W @ : : W @ : : LWeek 3:
Matchup : Pred : Result
@ : : W @ : : L @ : : L @ : : WEffective TPE Update:
Last week I took a look at effective TPE for each of the DSFL teams. My claim then was that we could make some early season predictions using that chart. As we get further into the season I'll start to look at statistical averages in addition to effective TPE to better empower predictions. One thing to note is that Total Effective TPE might also jump considerably for a team due to addition of a midseason waiver wire pickup. I'll try to work the increases into this chart moving forward but I couldn't find a good way to format it for getting this out on time.
Minnesota/Tijuana/Norfolk lead the pack again to nobodies surprise as all three teams had a commanding lead last week, while Portland drops a spot because they were leap frogged by the Buccaneers. Bondi Beach made a huge jump in the charts moving from 7th to 4th! They saw a net gain of 532 total, and their average went up by an astounding 17 indicating their rise is not solely due to waiver pickups. I did predict last week we'd see them move up the charts due to their rookie heavy roster, but I did not expect it to happen so soon.
Towards the bottom of the chart Dallas was able to move up over the Royals likely due to the Wolfie McDummy Jr. update. And against what their record on the field would show, KCC remains last again. Overall there aren't many interesting trends to highlight other than seeing BBB jump by over 500 TPE. Every team looks to be making steady gains, but it's clear that these numbers are only a partial indicator of a teams potential. Maybe I'll drop them going forward and look at actual football stats. Currently SOS is going to skew numbers like yards/points per game though. We'll have to wait until week 8 to get the full picture.
POWER RANKINGS:
Now that we have 4 games under our belt I'm going to start doing Power Rankings based on current standings rather that my predictions.
1a. 1985 Chicago Bears
1b. Norfolk Seawolves (3-1) +1
2. Tijuana Luchadores (3-1) +3
4. London Royals (2-2) -2
4. Kansas City Coyotes (2-2) +4
5. Bondi Beach Buccaneers (2-2) +2
6. Dallas Birddogs (2-2) +0
7. Portland Pythons (1-3) -3
8. Minnesota Greyducks (1-3) -5
Norfolk goes up one spot after an impressive week. They didn't finish strong against KCC, but I'm not convinced that loss is enough to write them off. Our largest movers are Tijuana and Kansas City jumping 3 and 4 spots respectively in the rankings. By the numbers these two teams are near the top of the league both offensively and defensively, and both teams have impressive wins to back up the numbers.
Bondi Beach similarly moves up a few spots after beating Portland and London. The Buccs top ranked offense behind Wide Receivers Plant Based and Kairo Knight is something every team needs to respect. On the defensive side of the ball 1st overall pick Mary Marie is proving her worth with a game clenching forced fumble against Portland. Watch out for this Bondi defense down the stretch as young rookies continue to make TPE improvements. The Royals didn't live up to my expectations from last week and drop 2 spots. However they still sit at the top of the North Division. The offense has been the highlight for the Royals with their returning cast of starters. We'll have to see if their rookie heavy defense can make some plays in the coming weeks.
Spots 6-8 are a close race between three teams have promise but have struggled early on this season. Quick disclaimer here that's relevant to the topic of SOS we won't have a clear indication until week 8 when every team has faced off at least once. So while the nature of Power Rankings requires me to put teams towards at the bottom, it is by no means a fully accurate indication this early in the season.
Portland dropped games to both of my previous bottom feeders Bondi Beach and Kansas City so I'm moving them down a few spots. While I think Portland is significantly better than their record reflects given their Strength of Schedule, we'll need to see that translate to the field before I'm confident ranking them higher. Dallas showed promise picking up wins against Bondi Beach and Minnesota. Again this is a team that's had a tough SOS with matchups against some of the leagues top offenses, which might indicate why they're sporting the leagues worst defense giving up 36.8 points and 452.8 yards per game. I'll likely be eating my hat for leaving them at down here at 6. Minnesota is the most surprising outcome for me after 4 weeks. Despite the TPE numbers, their offense hasn't been able to put together nearly anything so far. Their tandem of quarterbacks Painted Penguin and Blaine Falco will need t up their game if the Ducks want to stay in the playoff hunt.
Pondering the Orb(Predictions):
For full transparency here these predictions are done using the following factors:
1. Current standings and statistical trends.
2. Sim testing. I did run these games in the sim using the Week 4 file, however that does not account for this weeks updates or any game planning GMs might do.
3. Effective TPE standings.
Week 5:
Dallas Birddogs @ Portland PythonsBirddogs 24 : Pythons 25
After a blowout in week one Dallas has clawed their way back to a 2-2 record. I told you not to sleep on these puppers! Portland inversely has dropped 3 games in a row after their week one win over effective TPE leader Minnesota. I think the Python offense makes a turn around against a league worst Dallas defense in a late game comeback I'm taking Portland by 1 point.
Tijuana Luchadores @ Minnesota GreyducksLuchadores 24 : Greyducks 17
The Luchadores offense lead by rookie QB Lloyd "The Banhammer" Bannings has been hyper efficient all season outside of the loss to Norfolk in week 2, while the Greyducks offense is dead last in points per game. This looks to be a close game with the Greyduck defense stepping up, but ultimately I don't think their offense does enough to put them over the edge.
Bondi Beach Buccaneers @ Kansas City CoyotesBuccaneers 41 : Coyotes 31
Game of the week! We've got a face off of the Buccs league leading offense(35.2ppg) against the Coyotes stout defense(22.2ppga). I had both these teams as dark horses for a late season run, but it looks like they took that personally. Both teams showed up big in their respective week 4 matchups upsetting Norfolk and London who were previously 1/2 in my power rankings. I think the Buccs offense finally breaks the Kansas City secondary in a shootout win.
London Royals @ Norfolk SeawolvesRoyals 17 : Seawolves 45
London lost some stock after loses to Tijuana and Bondi Beach, and Norfolk's head of steam was stopped in its tracks by the Coyotes in week 4. I'm chalking the Norfolk loss up to "Sim gonna sim" as they right the ship week 5 with a win over London.
Week 6:
Kansas City Coyotes @ Dallas BirddogsCoyotes 30 : Birddogs 31
I probably should've learned my lesson in doubting the reigning champs last week, but I truly think Dallas is better than their numbers indicate. This game could go either way but I'm gonna throw a bone to the Birddogs and have faith in their offense.
Bondi Beach Buccaneers @ Tijuana LuchadoresBuccaneers 29 : Luchadores 35
Game of the Week! I might've predicted a Buccaneers win here if @Jaywe88 hadn't scolded me for predicting two Tijuana losses last week. There's no doubt the Lucha offense will put up points, but this game will be decided by if recent Cornerback switch Ezra Azazel and the Tijuana Defense can stop the potent Buccaneers Receiver core.
Minnesota Greyducks @ Norfolk SeawolvesGreyducks 24 : Seawolves 34
Outside of one hiccup the Seawolves defense has just been too good. The Greyducks stand a fighting chance if they can lock down star Wideout Legs McMillion, but that's a tall order to ask of any defense.
Portland Pythons @ London RoyalsPythons 24 : Royals 27
After a predicted tough loss to Norfolk, I have the Royals bouncing back here against the Pythons. However, I've been surprised to see the Pythons strapping front 7 lead by Bruce White give up 35 points per game. If they can sure up some issues and stop Royals Running Back Lord Farquaads, they just might be able to squeeze out a win.
Week 7:
Dallas Birddogs @ London RoyalsBirddogs 29 : Royals 41
Until I see otherwise from Dallas, the London Offense has too many receiving options for this Dallas secondary to cover. Dallas is able to put up points and keep it close but London comes out on top with a few late touchdowns.
Kansas City Coyotes @ Tijuana LuchadoresCoyotes 27 : Luchadores 24
The KCC defense shows up with speed rusher Ryan Lawrence and league leading tackler BOT Big Bad Wolf getting to the Quarterback and putting a halt on the powerful Lucha offense.
Minnesota Greyducks @ Bondi Beach BuccaneersGreyducks 28 : Buccaneers 41
I'm making the safe prediction with the Bondi Beach offense rolling against the struggling Greyducks. Don't be surprised though if Minnesota makes some adjustments after a rough 1-3 start and comes out with a win here. They lead the league in Effective TPE and that can't be ignored.
Norfolk Seawolves @ Portland PythonsSeawolves 37 : Pythons 31
Game of the Week! Rico Savage faces off against Bruce White! Expect at least 60-70 hand pumps as the Norfolk offense squeezes out an overtime victory.
Predicted Standings After Week 7:
North
1.
London 4-32.
Kansas City 3-43.
Portland 2-54.
Minnesota 1-6South
1.
Norfolk 6-12.
Tijuana 5-23.
Bondi Beach 4-34.
Dallas 3-4
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