(01-02-2018, 06:32 PM)37thchamber Wrote:Hold up. It occurs to me that I might be misunderstanding the way regression works, based on the numbers here.
Let's say I have 1000 TPE when regression starts. And I average 120 TPE per season gains.
My understanding is that after the first regression is applied, I go down to 850 (-15%)
End of the season, I have earned another 120, so I'm back up to 970.
Next regression applies and I'm down to 825 (-15%)
I gain another 120, back up to 945.
Next regression applies and I'm down to 756 ... and so on.
Basically, assuming those numbers, the vast majority of players would cease to be viable after 12 seasons or less -- with my own estimate being most likely season 10 for myself; as I mentioned in my investments article recently -- corresponding to a player age in the mid-30s. Which is pretty realistic, imo. It would also see most players peak at year 8. A very small minority would peak a year or two later maybe.
But that doesn't appear to be what's happening in the numbers here. It looks like the regression is taken from total TPE earned before any previous regression is applied... which also explains the insane longevity.
Sooo... am I misinterpreting it, and I'll actually be viable until season 20 or so?
I was under the assumption that the numbers given was of the total TPE earned over that players career. I could be totally wrong and I wrote this very early in my sim league career. I could totally redo this with the correct knowledge if you would like me to.