(06-12-2018, 09:03 PM)bovovovo Wrote:It definitely does, I just couldn't figure an accurate way to incorporate it quantitatively. Maybe some way to weigh each game based on if it was home or away?That would be the easiest way, probably. Could be implemented just by adding a multiplier for home/away games.
I'm not sure. Hopefully someone smarter than I could figure it out.
I did something similar a while ago, adapted from a system I created for something in nationstates funnily enough, lol.
Basically it counts a home win as 0.7 wins, and an away win as 1.3 wins (I think) instead of 1 and 1 respectively, so a team with 3 home wins and 1 away win from 5 games doesn't have a win rate of 0.8, but 0.68 instead (because ((3*0.7)+1.3)/5 = 0.68)
You'd have to figure out how much weighting to give home advantage I guess, but that can be estimated from the Elo stuff JuOSu (I think) did before, probably. Without crunching the numbers, I imagine 0.7/1.3 is probably close to where it should be
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