For week nine’s power rankings, I received a record sixteen responses that weren’t me. Thank you to everyone who has voted and made this article series possible. I really do appreciate it, and would like to continue to extend the offer of PM’ing you the form if you want to participate in the rest of the series. Without further ado, here are the results of this week’s power rankings survey:
Tenth place this week belongs to Arizona. The Outlaws somehow received five votes in the top four, but ultimately nine voters placed them in either ninth or tenth and they fall into last. With their losing streak extending to three games, they now own a record of 2-7 on the season and have allowed more points than any other NSFL team. Despite losing their seventh game, their expected wins total actually rose from 3.8 to 3.9. Unfortunately for Arizona, they’re still in last in the expected wins standings as well. And to make matters worse, I find it hard to see a way in which Arizona could win two more games on the season.
The first team to receive the honor of not being last is San Jose. Some jokesters filling out the survey actually threw San Jose in first. I’m not sure if they can’t read or if they’re just actually that dumb, but it happened. Those three voters alone are quite possible the reason San Jose is not in last. They own the same record as Arizona, but have probably avoided last place simply on account of the fact that they have won a game more recently than the Outlaws. Their offense has scored the fewest points in the league, with more than 30 points separating them from the second worst offense. Despite all this, they are still projected to somehow pull off four wins. Once again, I’m not holding my breath. I simply don’t think they can do it.
Eighth place this week belongs to Chicago. The Butchers have now lost two in a row and are tied with Philadelphia for the worst record in the NSFC at 3-6. Despite receiving three top three votes, most voters placed them seventh or lower this week and so they fall into eighth. Their expected wins total remains a decent 6.1, despite the loss, which is good enough now for fifth place. To achieve this, the Butchers would have to double their win totals down the stretch, something I don’t believe they could do easily. Perhaps they can find a way to somehow throw away a few more draft picks in hope of finding a solution.
Seventh was granted to Yellowknife, who is coming off a tough loss to Colorado. With a 4-5 record, they are still in prime position to challenge for the NSFC now that Baltimore has lost a few games and the division may be even more wide open than ever before. The Wraiths also sit seventh in expected wins with a total of 5.6. With four wins already under their belts, that total is certainly achievable, though I doubt it would amount to anything better than a third seed position going into the postseason. Yellowknife received votes as high as fourth and interestingly had twelve voters place them in either fifth or sixth. Unfortunately for them, they fall into seventh in the rankings.
Sixth goes to Colorado. Owning a 5-4 record, they sit tied with Baltimore for the division lead. Colorado’s defense has been the best in the NSFC at keeping their opponents from scoring, but the offense lags behind the likes of Baltimore and Chicago. Colorado received no first or last place votes, but they barely miss the top five despite the nine voters suggesting they belong there. Their expected win totals improved from 6.2 to 6.5, which elevates them into fourth in those projections.
Fifth place this week belongs to Philadelphia. The Liberty, despite being 3-6, are likely riding out a bump in popularity after beating Baltimore in week 9. Their offense and defense are both second to last, but they have managed to stay relevant in a tight division race and look to come out of today’s double header in a strong position to challenge for a slot in the playoffs. Despite their surge in popularity this week, the Liberty remain low in the expected wins rankings. They improved from 4.2 to 4.9, but that is good for a meager 8th place in the listings. Philadelphia received six votes in the top three, but most voters had them lower than sixth. Still, the crazy people rankings them towards the top elevate them into the front half of the standings.
Fourth place falls to Baltimore. Finally bumped out of third after their loss to Philadelphia, the Hawks received six votes in the top three and in the bottom three, dragging them down into fourth this week. Baltimore retains their third place spot in expected wins, but took a large drop from a win total of 7.5 down to 6.9 (nice). I’m certainly less confident that they will win the division than I was two weeks ago and I think this has been reflected both by the voters and in their expected wins projections. In any case, they need to elevate their level of play if they want to stay atop a crowded NSFC.
Austin finds themselves in third place this week. With a 5-4 record, they probably need some help to pass Orange County down the stretch, but it is technically possible. Despite their rough start, the Copperheads may be gaining some steam late in the season. They received six votes in the top three and eleven voters had them in the top half of the standings. Their expected wins improved slightly following week nine, but they sit in sixth with 5.7 expected wins.
Second place goes once again to Orange County. They have remained in second throughout much of the season and probably will stay there until New Orleans drops a game, if they ever do. The Otters received no first place votes, 9 second place votes, and a single vote for third. Their expected wins total improved to 10, but they remain in second behind New Orleans.
New Orleans finished with a historic ninth win in a row. Their offense has been as dominant as their defense has been stingy. They find themselves sitting atop the league once again. They received nine first place votes, two second place votes, and three salty voters dropped them into the bottom two. Their expected wins numbers leapt from 9.8 to 10.7 and they regain sole possession of first place in that tally once again. Barring an impressive cold streak, they will likely win the ASFC this season and are likely to appear in the Ultimus.
Thank you again to all those who participated. With more participants, it seems we had a higher number of crazy votes this week than normal. I still abide by my policy of not removing voters based on what I think is crazy, so the numbers are definitely all over the place. Here are the final power rankings with their point totals for week 9:
1. New Orleans – 113
2. Orange County – 110
3. Austin – 96
4. Baltimore – 76
5. Philadelphia – 75
6. Colorado – 72
7. Yellowknife – 67
8. Chicago – 56
9. San Jose – 54
10. Arizona – 46
I was interested by how close New Orleans and Orange County are to each other. They are clearly the obvious first and second choices, but I would have though there would be a little more separation given the SecondLine’s nine game win streak. Additionally, I was surprised by how close Baltimore, Philadelphia, Colorado, and Yellowknife are. Only nine points separate fourth from seventh. It will be a very tight NSFC and the last gameweek may have major playoff implications.
Here are the expected wins totals after week nine:
1. New Orleans – 10.7
2. Orange County – 10.0
3. Baltimore – 6.9
4. Colorado – 6.5
5. Chicago – 6.1
6. Austin – 5.7
7. Yellowknife – 5.6
8. Philadelphia – 4.9
9. San Jose – 4.1
10. Arizona – 3.9
Usually, the expected wins formula is based off the number of games that will be played in a season. So the list above predicts how many games that team will have won at the end of the year. Simply out of curiosity, I changed that to nine games to see how teams would have been expected to perform through only week nine to see who is currently under or over performing. Those standings, with their actual wins in parenthesis, are below:
1. New Orleans – 7.4 (9)
2. Orange County – 6.9 (7)
3. Baltimore – 4.8 (5)
4. Colorado – 4.5 (5)
5. Chicago – 4.2 (3)
T6. Austin – 3.9 (5)
T6. Yellowknife – 3.9 (4)
8. Philadelphia – 3.4 (3)
9. San Jose – 2.9 (2)
10. Arizona – 2.7 (2)
Notable overperformers are New Orleans and Austin, who are both at least one game over their expected total so far. The most notable underperformers are Chicago, San Jose, and Arizona. All three are close to a game under their expected totals. In any case, it goes to show that the projections are usually relatively accurate.
Tenth place this week belongs to Arizona. The Outlaws somehow received five votes in the top four, but ultimately nine voters placed them in either ninth or tenth and they fall into last. With their losing streak extending to three games, they now own a record of 2-7 on the season and have allowed more points than any other NSFL team. Despite losing their seventh game, their expected wins total actually rose from 3.8 to 3.9. Unfortunately for Arizona, they’re still in last in the expected wins standings as well. And to make matters worse, I find it hard to see a way in which Arizona could win two more games on the season.
The first team to receive the honor of not being last is San Jose. Some jokesters filling out the survey actually threw San Jose in first. I’m not sure if they can’t read or if they’re just actually that dumb, but it happened. Those three voters alone are quite possible the reason San Jose is not in last. They own the same record as Arizona, but have probably avoided last place simply on account of the fact that they have won a game more recently than the Outlaws. Their offense has scored the fewest points in the league, with more than 30 points separating them from the second worst offense. Despite all this, they are still projected to somehow pull off four wins. Once again, I’m not holding my breath. I simply don’t think they can do it.
Eighth place this week belongs to Chicago. The Butchers have now lost two in a row and are tied with Philadelphia for the worst record in the NSFC at 3-6. Despite receiving three top three votes, most voters placed them seventh or lower this week and so they fall into eighth. Their expected wins total remains a decent 6.1, despite the loss, which is good enough now for fifth place. To achieve this, the Butchers would have to double their win totals down the stretch, something I don’t believe they could do easily. Perhaps they can find a way to somehow throw away a few more draft picks in hope of finding a solution.
Seventh was granted to Yellowknife, who is coming off a tough loss to Colorado. With a 4-5 record, they are still in prime position to challenge for the NSFC now that Baltimore has lost a few games and the division may be even more wide open than ever before. The Wraiths also sit seventh in expected wins with a total of 5.6. With four wins already under their belts, that total is certainly achievable, though I doubt it would amount to anything better than a third seed position going into the postseason. Yellowknife received votes as high as fourth and interestingly had twelve voters place them in either fifth or sixth. Unfortunately for them, they fall into seventh in the rankings.
Sixth goes to Colorado. Owning a 5-4 record, they sit tied with Baltimore for the division lead. Colorado’s defense has been the best in the NSFC at keeping their opponents from scoring, but the offense lags behind the likes of Baltimore and Chicago. Colorado received no first or last place votes, but they barely miss the top five despite the nine voters suggesting they belong there. Their expected win totals improved from 6.2 to 6.5, which elevates them into fourth in those projections.
Fifth place this week belongs to Philadelphia. The Liberty, despite being 3-6, are likely riding out a bump in popularity after beating Baltimore in week 9. Their offense and defense are both second to last, but they have managed to stay relevant in a tight division race and look to come out of today’s double header in a strong position to challenge for a slot in the playoffs. Despite their surge in popularity this week, the Liberty remain low in the expected wins rankings. They improved from 4.2 to 4.9, but that is good for a meager 8th place in the listings. Philadelphia received six votes in the top three, but most voters had them lower than sixth. Still, the crazy people rankings them towards the top elevate them into the front half of the standings.
Fourth place falls to Baltimore. Finally bumped out of third after their loss to Philadelphia, the Hawks received six votes in the top three and in the bottom three, dragging them down into fourth this week. Baltimore retains their third place spot in expected wins, but took a large drop from a win total of 7.5 down to 6.9 (nice). I’m certainly less confident that they will win the division than I was two weeks ago and I think this has been reflected both by the voters and in their expected wins projections. In any case, they need to elevate their level of play if they want to stay atop a crowded NSFC.
Austin finds themselves in third place this week. With a 5-4 record, they probably need some help to pass Orange County down the stretch, but it is technically possible. Despite their rough start, the Copperheads may be gaining some steam late in the season. They received six votes in the top three and eleven voters had them in the top half of the standings. Their expected wins improved slightly following week nine, but they sit in sixth with 5.7 expected wins.
Second place goes once again to Orange County. They have remained in second throughout much of the season and probably will stay there until New Orleans drops a game, if they ever do. The Otters received no first place votes, 9 second place votes, and a single vote for third. Their expected wins total improved to 10, but they remain in second behind New Orleans.
New Orleans finished with a historic ninth win in a row. Their offense has been as dominant as their defense has been stingy. They find themselves sitting atop the league once again. They received nine first place votes, two second place votes, and three salty voters dropped them into the bottom two. Their expected wins numbers leapt from 9.8 to 10.7 and they regain sole possession of first place in that tally once again. Barring an impressive cold streak, they will likely win the ASFC this season and are likely to appear in the Ultimus.
Thank you again to all those who participated. With more participants, it seems we had a higher number of crazy votes this week than normal. I still abide by my policy of not removing voters based on what I think is crazy, so the numbers are definitely all over the place. Here are the final power rankings with their point totals for week 9:
1. New Orleans – 113
2. Orange County – 110
3. Austin – 96
4. Baltimore – 76
5. Philadelphia – 75
6. Colorado – 72
7. Yellowknife – 67
8. Chicago – 56
9. San Jose – 54
10. Arizona – 46
I was interested by how close New Orleans and Orange County are to each other. They are clearly the obvious first and second choices, but I would have though there would be a little more separation given the SecondLine’s nine game win streak. Additionally, I was surprised by how close Baltimore, Philadelphia, Colorado, and Yellowknife are. Only nine points separate fourth from seventh. It will be a very tight NSFC and the last gameweek may have major playoff implications.
Here are the expected wins totals after week nine:
1. New Orleans – 10.7
2. Orange County – 10.0
3. Baltimore – 6.9
4. Colorado – 6.5
5. Chicago – 6.1
6. Austin – 5.7
7. Yellowknife – 5.6
8. Philadelphia – 4.9
9. San Jose – 4.1
10. Arizona – 3.9
Usually, the expected wins formula is based off the number of games that will be played in a season. So the list above predicts how many games that team will have won at the end of the year. Simply out of curiosity, I changed that to nine games to see how teams would have been expected to perform through only week nine to see who is currently under or over performing. Those standings, with their actual wins in parenthesis, are below:
1. New Orleans – 7.4 (9)
2. Orange County – 6.9 (7)
3. Baltimore – 4.8 (5)
4. Colorado – 4.5 (5)
5. Chicago – 4.2 (3)
T6. Austin – 3.9 (5)
T6. Yellowknife – 3.9 (4)
8. Philadelphia – 3.4 (3)
9. San Jose – 2.9 (2)
10. Arizona – 2.7 (2)
Notable overperformers are New Orleans and Austin, who are both at least one game over their expected total so far. The most notable underperformers are Chicago, San Jose, and Arizona. All three are close to a game under their expected totals. In any case, it goes to show that the projections are usually relatively accurate.