Hello ISFL and welcome to my seasonal essay on why statistics are good, fun and interesting. Please take a seat. I'm Hamish MacAndrew and I'll be your guide on this trip we're going to take together.
As I stated last year, statistics can tell a story. Lets take a look at S23 and see if we can't find us a nice story.
Here is the Elo rankings of all teams through S23 including post-season:
And here are our Ultimus contenders isolated:
Already we can see some interesting stories emerging. Look at the Copperheads, for example. They come into the season as the #3 ranked team, behind only the Wraiths and the Otters. A strong week 1 performance coupled with the Wraiths surprise loss to the Baltimore Hawks (a matchup they had nearly 70% chance of winning) gave the Copperheads the #2 spot and put them within striking distance of the Otters and the top spot.
But then it all went tits up. Two losses in a row (16-45 vs Second Line and 24-31 vs Otters) plunged them down to 5th overall. Things clearly weren't looking great. A couple of decent wins then followed and gave Copperheads the chance to be in the top spot mix once again. However a lackluster performance against the Butchers netted them only a small rise in score and then an awkward loss to Liberty at home plunged them right back down the table again to 5th.
If they had only won that game vs Liberty then their performance the following week where they whooped Yeti while on the road (42-16 against a top team) then chance are they'd have taken that number one spot.
But, after that flash of brilliance they lost it again and went on a four game loss streak. 17-23 vs Wraiths was a good showing but maybe the loss hurt moral because that was followed by 20-24 loss to the Hawks, 13-14 loss to the Sailfish and then an absolute thumping at the hands of 11th ranked Hahalua, losing 3 to 40 points. It looked like the Copperheads were done.
Twelve weeks into the season and they're now not even in the top half of the rankings. Meanwhile the Wraiths are still comfortably up at the top having secured #1 spot weeks previously.
In week 13 Copperheads showed they might still have some life in them with a 24-6 defeat over New Orleans but they'd have to bring their A game the rest of the season since the remaining schedule wasn't exactly easy. The following week a 16-31 loss to the Otters dented a comeback but they went on to win their final two games and secure a playoff berth. Close one guys.
Meanwhile, Wraiths started to flounder. They nearly lost to the Butchers in week 14, clinging onto a 16-10 win but it was signs of what was to come as they then lost 13-35 vs Colorado and 17-35 vs Liberty. Ending the season with them down in 5th place and Copperheads just below in 6th.
Both teams then pushed their way through the playoffs and secured themselves spots in the Ultimus. The Copperheads, despite everything, went into the finals as the Elo ranked favourites with a score of 1607.07 vs Wraiths on 1586.96. It was not to be for the snake based team as the Wraiths cemented their season with a 38-13 route of the Copperheads.
These graphs and charts tell stories of struggle and overcoming the odds. Whenever you see a big spike or a big dip, you know that something interesting has happened. Someone who, by all rights, should have won something buggered it up or someone who should have lost pulled something amazing out of the bag.
In fact, two of the biggest single week Elo losses are both owned by the Ultimus Champions, the Wraiths. In week 15 they lost at home to the Yeti with a score of 35-13. Wraiths had a 74% chance of taking the W in this game and dropped the ball taking a 65.65 loss to their Elo score and dropping them two spots in the tables. This actually slingshot Yeti up from 4th to 1st place although they wouldn't hold it for long.
In week 11, Wraiths loss to the Outlaws while on the road with a score of 46-13. It's lucky the Wraiths didn't put this performance up while at home or this would have been catastrophic for them. As it happened, they still lost 63.24 points but still held onto top spot at that particular point in the season thanks to all the other top teams faffing around at least 40 points below and then also losing.
These are just some examples of things you might miss when you just consider the games in isolation. Things that graphs and stats can highlight. Outlayers and oddities that make things interesting and fun to watch. At the end of the day, we're watching some little dots run around on a screen so having those little dots draw lines over the whole season is just another abstraction of numbers.
But they are fun somehow.
850 words. Tier 1 task 5
As I stated last year, statistics can tell a story. Lets take a look at S23 and see if we can't find us a nice story.
Here is the Elo rankings of all teams through S23 including post-season:
And here are our Ultimus contenders isolated:
Already we can see some interesting stories emerging. Look at the Copperheads, for example. They come into the season as the #3 ranked team, behind only the Wraiths and the Otters. A strong week 1 performance coupled with the Wraiths surprise loss to the Baltimore Hawks (a matchup they had nearly 70% chance of winning) gave the Copperheads the #2 spot and put them within striking distance of the Otters and the top spot.
But then it all went tits up. Two losses in a row (16-45 vs Second Line and 24-31 vs Otters) plunged them down to 5th overall. Things clearly weren't looking great. A couple of decent wins then followed and gave Copperheads the chance to be in the top spot mix once again. However a lackluster performance against the Butchers netted them only a small rise in score and then an awkward loss to Liberty at home plunged them right back down the table again to 5th.
If they had only won that game vs Liberty then their performance the following week where they whooped Yeti while on the road (42-16 against a top team) then chance are they'd have taken that number one spot.
But, after that flash of brilliance they lost it again and went on a four game loss streak. 17-23 vs Wraiths was a good showing but maybe the loss hurt moral because that was followed by 20-24 loss to the Hawks, 13-14 loss to the Sailfish and then an absolute thumping at the hands of 11th ranked Hahalua, losing 3 to 40 points. It looked like the Copperheads were done.
Twelve weeks into the season and they're now not even in the top half of the rankings. Meanwhile the Wraiths are still comfortably up at the top having secured #1 spot weeks previously.
In week 13 Copperheads showed they might still have some life in them with a 24-6 defeat over New Orleans but they'd have to bring their A game the rest of the season since the remaining schedule wasn't exactly easy. The following week a 16-31 loss to the Otters dented a comeback but they went on to win their final two games and secure a playoff berth. Close one guys.
Meanwhile, Wraiths started to flounder. They nearly lost to the Butchers in week 14, clinging onto a 16-10 win but it was signs of what was to come as they then lost 13-35 vs Colorado and 17-35 vs Liberty. Ending the season with them down in 5th place and Copperheads just below in 6th.
Both teams then pushed their way through the playoffs and secured themselves spots in the Ultimus. The Copperheads, despite everything, went into the finals as the Elo ranked favourites with a score of 1607.07 vs Wraiths on 1586.96. It was not to be for the snake based team as the Wraiths cemented their season with a 38-13 route of the Copperheads.
These graphs and charts tell stories of struggle and overcoming the odds. Whenever you see a big spike or a big dip, you know that something interesting has happened. Someone who, by all rights, should have won something buggered it up or someone who should have lost pulled something amazing out of the bag.
In fact, two of the biggest single week Elo losses are both owned by the Ultimus Champions, the Wraiths. In week 15 they lost at home to the Yeti with a score of 35-13. Wraiths had a 74% chance of taking the W in this game and dropped the ball taking a 65.65 loss to their Elo score and dropping them two spots in the tables. This actually slingshot Yeti up from 4th to 1st place although they wouldn't hold it for long.
In week 11, Wraiths loss to the Outlaws while on the road with a score of 46-13. It's lucky the Wraiths didn't put this performance up while at home or this would have been catastrophic for them. As it happened, they still lost 63.24 points but still held onto top spot at that particular point in the season thanks to all the other top teams faffing around at least 40 points below and then also losing.
These are just some examples of things you might miss when you just consider the games in isolation. Things that graphs and stats can highlight. Outlayers and oddities that make things interesting and fun to watch. At the end of the day, we're watching some little dots run around on a screen so having those little dots draw lines over the whole season is just another abstraction of numbers.
But they are fun somehow.
850 words. Tier 1 task 5
Hamish MacAndrew #20 - Safety - Austin Copperheads - [Player Profile - Update Thread - Wiki page - Twitter]