I decided to make my Ultimus Week on something that I think is a problem in the league. I wanted to use this opportunity to try to convince me that it was something beneficial for the league, even though I still hate de way it’s delivered to the users.
I decided to break down all the predictions of the season and have a look at the outlines and the benefices of it. After doing this UW, I think they are beneficial for the league. However, I still think there’s a way to improve it even better than they are right now.
Quick reference:
Week 1 Predictions: 295 users – Posted a Saturday – 64h Open – Mode 1 TPE
Week 2 Predictions: 276 users – Posted a Tuesday – 42h Open – Mode 1.5 TPE
Week 3/4 Predictions: 277 users – Posted a Thursday – 39h Open – Mode 4 TPE
Week 5 Predictions: 278 users – Posted a Saturday – 47h Open – Mode 2 TPE
Week 6 Predictions: 244 users – Posted a Tuesday – 42h Open – Mode 2 TPE
Week 7 Predictions: 266 users – Posted a Thursday – 42h Open – Mode 1.5 TPE
Week 8 Predictions: 264 users – Posted a Saturday – 57h Open – Mode 2 TPE
Week 9 Predictions: 250 users – Posted a Tuesday – 41h Open – Mode 1.5 TPE
Week 10 Predictions: 249 users – Posted a Thursday – 25h Open – Mode 1 TPE
Week 11 Predictions: 251 users - Posted a Saturday – 54h Open – Mode 2 TPE
Week 12 Predictions: 257 users – Posted a Tuesday – 42h Open – Mode 2 TPE
Week 13 Predictions: 248 users – Posted a Thursday – 40h Open – Mode 3 TPE
Week 14 Predictions: 274 users – Posted a Saturday – 58h Open – Mode 1.5 TPE
Week 15 Predictions: 268 users – Posted a Tuesday – 42h Open – Mode 2 TPE
Week 16 Predictions: 274 users – Posted a Thursday – 41h Open – Mode 2 TPE
The first thing that I immediately saw in this quick breakdown is week 10. While most of the predictions are open more than 40h, this specific one was Open less than 25h before the sim in the middle of the week. This is not a lot of time for users to log on and do this specific prediction. It happened only once in the whole season, however, so I don’t think it was a huge issue, but it’s the second less did predictions. Which is also a surprising point, when we see that the predictions with the less answers is Week 13.
Another fun fact that I could see with this quick breakdown. The decision to use Mode instead of Average in the predictions means that the 8 users who had it gained an extra TPE than the average on week 3/4, week 7 and week 13. This was still not enough to put those 8 users at the most top of the league, as they finished with 29 TPE through the season.
The best predictions users are @Bkfootball and @FleshBagSoup! Both did all 15 predictions and gained 35 TPE through the season with it. That’s on a possible total of (I think) 48 TPE for the whole season, at a count of 16 weeks*6 Predictions / 2.
The worst predictions users are @legion and @nexus1353. Both only did one prediction in the season and gained a total of 0.5 (1) TPE through the whole season.
This brings me to another fun statistic. The average TPE gained through all 16 weeks of predictions is more than the Trivia could give to users. The average TPE gained through the season is 21 TPE. Of course, it’s average, so some users had more and some other users had less. It’s hard to say if it’s actually a good thing overall, due to the number of users that missed one or more prediction, but it’s a good start.
Here's some other stats that are fun to see:
Total number of unique users: 380
One prediction done: 22 users
Two predictions done: 20 users
Three predictions done: 24 users
Four predictions done: 6 users
Five predictions done: 11 users
Six predictions done: 4 users
Seven predictions done: 11 users
Eight predictions done: 14 users
Nine predictions done: 8 users
Ten predictions done: 14 users
Eleven predictions done: 14 users
Twelve predictions done: 28 users
Thirteen predictions done: 40 users
Fourteen predictions done: 49 users
All predictions done: 115 users (8 users had the pass)
So, it’s interesting to see that only the third of the unique user managed to do all 15 predictions in the whole season. While it’s about 60% of the league that did Twelve or more predictions, I still think only a third doing all of them is a bit low when the main reason I see this added to the league to replace trivia was to help activity and ‘reduce copy paste’ (lets be real, it didn’t really reduce copy paste, I personally spend even less time doing this than trivia). Having a different way to deliver those threads, would be highly beneficial. I think the idea I liked the most it to post all the predictions on Saturday for the week and close them as the week goes.
I decided to break down all the predictions of the season and have a look at the outlines and the benefices of it. After doing this UW, I think they are beneficial for the league. However, I still think there’s a way to improve it even better than they are right now.
Quick reference:
Week 1 Predictions: 295 users – Posted a Saturday – 64h Open – Mode 1 TPE
Week 2 Predictions: 276 users – Posted a Tuesday – 42h Open – Mode 1.5 TPE
Week 3/4 Predictions: 277 users – Posted a Thursday – 39h Open – Mode 4 TPE
Week 5 Predictions: 278 users – Posted a Saturday – 47h Open – Mode 2 TPE
Week 6 Predictions: 244 users – Posted a Tuesday – 42h Open – Mode 2 TPE
Week 7 Predictions: 266 users – Posted a Thursday – 42h Open – Mode 1.5 TPE
Week 8 Predictions: 264 users – Posted a Saturday – 57h Open – Mode 2 TPE
Week 9 Predictions: 250 users – Posted a Tuesday – 41h Open – Mode 1.5 TPE
Week 10 Predictions: 249 users – Posted a Thursday – 25h Open – Mode 1 TPE
Week 11 Predictions: 251 users - Posted a Saturday – 54h Open – Mode 2 TPE
Week 12 Predictions: 257 users – Posted a Tuesday – 42h Open – Mode 2 TPE
Week 13 Predictions: 248 users – Posted a Thursday – 40h Open – Mode 3 TPE
Week 14 Predictions: 274 users – Posted a Saturday – 58h Open – Mode 1.5 TPE
Week 15 Predictions: 268 users – Posted a Tuesday – 42h Open – Mode 2 TPE
Week 16 Predictions: 274 users – Posted a Thursday – 41h Open – Mode 2 TPE
The first thing that I immediately saw in this quick breakdown is week 10. While most of the predictions are open more than 40h, this specific one was Open less than 25h before the sim in the middle of the week. This is not a lot of time for users to log on and do this specific prediction. It happened only once in the whole season, however, so I don’t think it was a huge issue, but it’s the second less did predictions. Which is also a surprising point, when we see that the predictions with the less answers is Week 13.
Another fun fact that I could see with this quick breakdown. The decision to use Mode instead of Average in the predictions means that the 8 users who had it gained an extra TPE than the average on week 3/4, week 7 and week 13. This was still not enough to put those 8 users at the most top of the league, as they finished with 29 TPE through the season.
The best predictions users are @Bkfootball and @FleshBagSoup! Both did all 15 predictions and gained 35 TPE through the season with it. That’s on a possible total of (I think) 48 TPE for the whole season, at a count of 16 weeks*6 Predictions / 2.
The worst predictions users are @legion and @nexus1353. Both only did one prediction in the season and gained a total of 0.5 (1) TPE through the whole season.
This brings me to another fun statistic. The average TPE gained through all 16 weeks of predictions is more than the Trivia could give to users. The average TPE gained through the season is 21 TPE. Of course, it’s average, so some users had more and some other users had less. It’s hard to say if it’s actually a good thing overall, due to the number of users that missed one or more prediction, but it’s a good start.
Here's some other stats that are fun to see:
Total number of unique users: 380
One prediction done: 22 users
Two predictions done: 20 users
Three predictions done: 24 users
Four predictions done: 6 users
Five predictions done: 11 users
Six predictions done: 4 users
Seven predictions done: 11 users
Eight predictions done: 14 users
Nine predictions done: 8 users
Ten predictions done: 14 users
Eleven predictions done: 14 users
Twelve predictions done: 28 users
Thirteen predictions done: 40 users
Fourteen predictions done: 49 users
All predictions done: 115 users (8 users had the pass)
So, it’s interesting to see that only the third of the unique user managed to do all 15 predictions in the whole season. While it’s about 60% of the league that did Twelve or more predictions, I still think only a third doing all of them is a bit low when the main reason I see this added to the league to replace trivia was to help activity and ‘reduce copy paste’ (lets be real, it didn’t really reduce copy paste, I personally spend even less time doing this than trivia). Having a different way to deliver those threads, would be highly beneficial. I think the idea I liked the most it to post all the predictions on Saturday for the week and close them as the week goes.