*Analyzing Win Probability in DDSPF21

[infinitempg]

This is super cool. If I might make a request, could you show this game? Surprised it didn't make the cut, but you mentioned kickoff returns acting a little funky...

https://index.sim-football.com/ISFLS28/B...tml?id=583

Interestingly, Pat asked me the same exact question a few days ago.



Notice it got the final score wrong - this is because I just removed all kickoffs lol

Chicago's WP after their FG should be at 96.5%.

I am delightfully surprised (and slightly amazed) that Philly / CTC is somehow not on the receiving end of worst chokes of all times.

Question for you about methodology: am I misremembering that the engine affords advantage to home field teams? If those teams do get an advantage, how does DDSPF21's weighting factor into the win probability formula?

I basically use that weighting as the starting win probability - so I took the straight average of point spread for the home team over the last 12 seasons as well as the standard deviation, and plugged that into the WP formula for t = 0s.