05-05-2023, 12:10 AM
(This post was last modified: 05-08-2023, 10:39 AM by xenosthelegend. Edited 1 time in total.)
Week 9 provided some very interesting types of bets, similar to week 8. These props people are tossing everything they can at us. I’m barely above .500 for overall guesses but, thanks to @Ultimatedestroye doing additional analysis on the article writers, I’m doing pretty well on my parlay bets. Overall this week, I went 3/7 but made up for the misses by nailing my bets on the ones that hit. I did end up winning a decent chunk of change again as I was confident in the ones I did bet on and only put a little bit on the misses, so I’m enjoying this strategy. So let’s take a quick look at how we did on week 9 bets.
Nova Montagne (HON) – under 310.5 Pass yds; Most people took the under on this one and it paid off handsomely. Chicago continued it’s streak of no 300 yard passers (as Nova didn’t even get 200). Just a slug ‘em out defensive game made it tough to get anything going. I wanted to bet more on this one but since it was in my parlay, I’m happy with the results.
Zane Cold (OCO) – under 55.5 Rush yds; The game script worked out as I imagined as YKW got a good lead and so Orange County couldn’t try to run as much as they’d probably like. Tyler One also took a few more carries than Cold did, further ruining the chance to add much on the ground. One actually hit the over so thankfully this bet was with Cold. That said, the YKW run defense isn’t going to allow any team to do much.
Money Tolliver (BAL) – over 25.5 Receiving yds; Welp, this was a close one. Baltimore was pass heavy enough to get Tolliver 5 receptions and he just got the over on his last 2 catches late in the 4th quarter. I didn’t expect Baltimore to play from behind that much of the game but it definitely helped the game script. This one was closer than I expected but it still hit so I won’t ask to many questions.
Johnny Blaze (SAR) – over 6.5 Receptions; This son of a b just had to get a meaningless touchdown reception with 6 minutes left of a blowout game to hit the over. I wasn’t the only one that expected the under and it was close to coming true, but Blaze continues to light the ISFL on fire by even adding a 102 yard kick return after the worthless TD catch. Thankfully, I didn’t put much money on this one so didn’t hurt to bad but still.
Mandrews McHollywood (NYS) – under 0.5 Touchdowns; Well, I was right, Berlin has a terrible offense, but they did enough to win the game. By scoring 13 points. And even allowed a safety. Man, that defense held tough though and McHollywood let us down again by not scoring at all. I only put a million on this one as I definitely thought it was going to be a coinflip even with the potential return attempts.
Solace Avenger (NOLA) – under 8.5 Tackles; What a bummer. Solace ended up with 8 tackles, which is still very good. The worry I had from the start was the large number needed to hit the over so the smart bet was probably taking the under but I’m far from a smart bettor. Not much to say about this one as it was a valiant effort but just not quite good enough for us over bettors.
Delores Bickerman (AUS) - over 23.5 Kick Return Avg.; Not beating myself up over this one. I estimated 5 return opportunities for Austin. There were 7 kickoffs from Cape Town and 4 of those were returnable. Bickerman got 3 of those 4, which I was a bit worried about the sim giving others an opportunity to return. A lovely 33 yard return was enough to get the average up over 24 yards. This one was near impossible to actually analyze so thankfully it was a small amount I lost on this one.
As a lifelong Vikings fan, we have a saying, there's always next week. So let's get at it.
Nova Montagne (HON) – o/u 2.5 Pass TDs; Well well well, look who we have here. Nova is averaging 2 touchdown passes per game and has 4 games with 3 touchdown passes or more this season. So not a great start for this over bet. Adding to that, Austin has only let 3 other quarterbacks toss 3 or more touchdowns this season. Nova only managed 1 in their previous matchup. As much as I’d like Nova to hit the over for my fantasy team, I think the likelier option is the under, so that’s what I’m going with.
Arizona – o/u 109.5 Rush yds; Nedelko had a game for the ages last week against Sarasota. 184 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns to go along with 65 yards receiving with 2 touchdowns. After a 4 game slump, it seems like Arizona has found its groove in the last 2 games. They are averaging 110 rushing yards per game, and that may have been propped up by the 200+ from last week. Nedelko and Blue are a formidable combo so it’s definitely not far off for them to hit he over. Going against New York this week makes it interesting. They have a good run defense in terms of yardage allowed (81.1, good for 3rd in the league) and their pass defense isn’t great. But New York also isn’t a very good team, so does game script dictate more rushing for Arizona to salt away the clock? But that also depends on what Arizona team shows up. While I think Arizona is capable of 110 rushing yards, I just don’t see it happening this week. I’ll take the under.
Lucius Salem (SAR) – o/u 4.5 Receptions; We all know how I feel about Sarasota reception props. Salem is averaging just slightly under 5 catches a game. I think Salem sees enough targets each game to make this prop decently ok to hit the over. Chicago is all over the board for tight end targets and receptions so I’m not sure what to make of this one. Last time these 2 teams faced off, Salem had 4 catches on 5 targets where Sarasota was playing catch up. I think that same game script happens again Salem does enough to get the over. So that’s what I’ll go with.
Cruella De Ville (SJS) – o/u 7.5 Tackles; Another tackle prop, yay. If it wasn’t for back to back 3 tackle games against Colorado and Arizona, De Ville would be averaging a lot more than the 7.5 tackles per game, which means the prop is under selling their total. Last time these 2 teams faced off, Cruella had 12 tackles in a low scoring affair. I know 8.5 tackles for Avenger last week was a lot, so taking the over at 7.5 for someone else seems crazy, but crazy is my middle name so I’m going over on this one.
Cristian Marciano (CTC) – o/u 1.5 Negative plays; What in the actual f is this. Like, I get the idea behind it, but I have no way to figure this one out. So we need TFL’s and sacks. And more opportunities, but at least those can come from either pass or run plays. Marciano has a combined 15 of those this season. Somehow, New Orleans basically only allows 1 TFL per game. In their last 6 games, no player has gotten more than 1 sack. So with the likelihood of Marciano getting the 1 TFL and a sack being very small, I’m taking the under on this one.
Cedrick Wilson II (COL) – o/u 42.5 Return yds; Oh yay, another return prop. This is another one that comes down to opportunities (I know they all do but you know what I mean). Wilkins appears to be the main punt returner but splits kick returns. Kick returns provide the best chance to hit the over on this one as punt returns rarely yield much yardage per return. Good news, they go against Yellowknife, who has one of the better offenses in the league and is averaging over 27 points per game. I am going with game script on this one and saying there are enough opportunities between kick return and punt return duties that Wilson hits the over on this one.
Berlin/Baltimore – o/u 39.5 Total points; Under. Berlin is an absolute dominant force on defense and despite the high TPE on offense, just seems like they’re stuck in the mud. 40 points does not seem like much but despite Baltimore’s high volume offense, they only average 22 points per game. Berlin just knows how to bring teams down but unfortunately for them, their offense can’t put it together. So I’m taking the under on this one.
Again, not a fan of this week. Thankfully, I’ll be taking next week off of these articles as I’ll be on vacation so be sure to follow UD, Chicken Lips, and even Seb for advice. I’m rolling with another 3-leg parlay with Nova under, Cruella over, and Ber/Bal under. I’m definitely betting little on Marciano and Arizona props as my confidence level is not high on those. Thanks again for reading, good luck this week and next week as well!
Nova Montagne (HON) – under 310.5 Pass yds; Most people took the under on this one and it paid off handsomely. Chicago continued it’s streak of no 300 yard passers (as Nova didn’t even get 200). Just a slug ‘em out defensive game made it tough to get anything going. I wanted to bet more on this one but since it was in my parlay, I’m happy with the results.
Zane Cold (OCO) – under 55.5 Rush yds; The game script worked out as I imagined as YKW got a good lead and so Orange County couldn’t try to run as much as they’d probably like. Tyler One also took a few more carries than Cold did, further ruining the chance to add much on the ground. One actually hit the over so thankfully this bet was with Cold. That said, the YKW run defense isn’t going to allow any team to do much.
Money Tolliver (BAL) – over 25.5 Receiving yds; Welp, this was a close one. Baltimore was pass heavy enough to get Tolliver 5 receptions and he just got the over on his last 2 catches late in the 4th quarter. I didn’t expect Baltimore to play from behind that much of the game but it definitely helped the game script. This one was closer than I expected but it still hit so I won’t ask to many questions.
Johnny Blaze (SAR) – over 6.5 Receptions; This son of a b just had to get a meaningless touchdown reception with 6 minutes left of a blowout game to hit the over. I wasn’t the only one that expected the under and it was close to coming true, but Blaze continues to light the ISFL on fire by even adding a 102 yard kick return after the worthless TD catch. Thankfully, I didn’t put much money on this one so didn’t hurt to bad but still.
Mandrews McHollywood (NYS) – under 0.5 Touchdowns; Well, I was right, Berlin has a terrible offense, but they did enough to win the game. By scoring 13 points. And even allowed a safety. Man, that defense held tough though and McHollywood let us down again by not scoring at all. I only put a million on this one as I definitely thought it was going to be a coinflip even with the potential return attempts.
Solace Avenger (NOLA) – under 8.5 Tackles; What a bummer. Solace ended up with 8 tackles, which is still very good. The worry I had from the start was the large number needed to hit the over so the smart bet was probably taking the under but I’m far from a smart bettor. Not much to say about this one as it was a valiant effort but just not quite good enough for us over bettors.
Delores Bickerman (AUS) - over 23.5 Kick Return Avg.; Not beating myself up over this one. I estimated 5 return opportunities for Austin. There were 7 kickoffs from Cape Town and 4 of those were returnable. Bickerman got 3 of those 4, which I was a bit worried about the sim giving others an opportunity to return. A lovely 33 yard return was enough to get the average up over 24 yards. This one was near impossible to actually analyze so thankfully it was a small amount I lost on this one.
As a lifelong Vikings fan, we have a saying, there's always next week. So let's get at it.
Nova Montagne (HON) – o/u 2.5 Pass TDs; Well well well, look who we have here. Nova is averaging 2 touchdown passes per game and has 4 games with 3 touchdown passes or more this season. So not a great start for this over bet. Adding to that, Austin has only let 3 other quarterbacks toss 3 or more touchdowns this season. Nova only managed 1 in their previous matchup. As much as I’d like Nova to hit the over for my fantasy team, I think the likelier option is the under, so that’s what I’m going with.
Arizona – o/u 109.5 Rush yds; Nedelko had a game for the ages last week against Sarasota. 184 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns to go along with 65 yards receiving with 2 touchdowns. After a 4 game slump, it seems like Arizona has found its groove in the last 2 games. They are averaging 110 rushing yards per game, and that may have been propped up by the 200+ from last week. Nedelko and Blue are a formidable combo so it’s definitely not far off for them to hit he over. Going against New York this week makes it interesting. They have a good run defense in terms of yardage allowed (81.1, good for 3rd in the league) and their pass defense isn’t great. But New York also isn’t a very good team, so does game script dictate more rushing for Arizona to salt away the clock? But that also depends on what Arizona team shows up. While I think Arizona is capable of 110 rushing yards, I just don’t see it happening this week. I’ll take the under.
Lucius Salem (SAR) – o/u 4.5 Receptions; We all know how I feel about Sarasota reception props. Salem is averaging just slightly under 5 catches a game. I think Salem sees enough targets each game to make this prop decently ok to hit the over. Chicago is all over the board for tight end targets and receptions so I’m not sure what to make of this one. Last time these 2 teams faced off, Salem had 4 catches on 5 targets where Sarasota was playing catch up. I think that same game script happens again Salem does enough to get the over. So that’s what I’ll go with.
Cruella De Ville (SJS) – o/u 7.5 Tackles; Another tackle prop, yay. If it wasn’t for back to back 3 tackle games against Colorado and Arizona, De Ville would be averaging a lot more than the 7.5 tackles per game, which means the prop is under selling their total. Last time these 2 teams faced off, Cruella had 12 tackles in a low scoring affair. I know 8.5 tackles for Avenger last week was a lot, so taking the over at 7.5 for someone else seems crazy, but crazy is my middle name so I’m going over on this one.
Cristian Marciano (CTC) – o/u 1.5 Negative plays; What in the actual f is this. Like, I get the idea behind it, but I have no way to figure this one out. So we need TFL’s and sacks. And more opportunities, but at least those can come from either pass or run plays. Marciano has a combined 15 of those this season. Somehow, New Orleans basically only allows 1 TFL per game. In their last 6 games, no player has gotten more than 1 sack. So with the likelihood of Marciano getting the 1 TFL and a sack being very small, I’m taking the under on this one.
Cedrick Wilson II (COL) – o/u 42.5 Return yds; Oh yay, another return prop. This is another one that comes down to opportunities (I know they all do but you know what I mean). Wilkins appears to be the main punt returner but splits kick returns. Kick returns provide the best chance to hit the over on this one as punt returns rarely yield much yardage per return. Good news, they go against Yellowknife, who has one of the better offenses in the league and is averaging over 27 points per game. I am going with game script on this one and saying there are enough opportunities between kick return and punt return duties that Wilson hits the over on this one.
Berlin/Baltimore – o/u 39.5 Total points; Under. Berlin is an absolute dominant force on defense and despite the high TPE on offense, just seems like they’re stuck in the mud. 40 points does not seem like much but despite Baltimore’s high volume offense, they only average 22 points per game. Berlin just knows how to bring teams down but unfortunately for them, their offense can’t put it together. So I’m taking the under on this one.
Again, not a fan of this week. Thankfully, I’ll be taking next week off of these articles as I’ll be on vacation so be sure to follow UD, Chicken Lips, and even Seb for advice. I’m rolling with another 3-leg parlay with Nova under, Cruella over, and Ber/Bal under. I’m definitely betting little on Marciano and Arizona props as my confidence level is not high on those. Thanks again for reading, good luck this week and next week as well!
"...and has what is honestly the most bizarre attachment to ISFL fantasy football and user bets..." - aeonsjenni