08-06-2023, 10:40 PM
(This post was last modified: 08-06-2023, 10:46 PM by Ultimatedestroye. Edited 6 times in total.)
#2 Prompt
S41 is an interesting class of players and users alike. Even in its 3 seasons and 3/4th of a year irl, its been able to become a big and important class to the ISFL. 3 people for s41 already hold ISFL Positions, Baz for the New Orleans Second Line; Wizard_Literal for the New York Silverbacks; and UptownCord for the Orange County Otters. In the DSFL, 7 out of 8 teams have a completely new S41 User at one of the GM positions, Myself/Ultimate at Tijuana; JDC at Kansas City; LtHudz at Minnesota, Toofpete at Portland; aeonsjenni at Bondi Beach; Cycro at Dallas. The only team not to have a new s41 user at GM is Norfolk, even though Gumbaman has an S41 player, he created his first player in S27. Newcreates in S41 account for 43.75% of GM’s in the DSFL, and 22.72% of all GM’s across all of the ISFL/DSFL sim. However all of this GM talk is just talking about positions of power, and I think talking about the entirety of the class as a whole is much more interesting and makes for a better discussion point. In the DSFL draft for the s41 class, there was 116 pick in total, however, throughout the season, there were 18 waiver claims throughout the season (me included), giving us a total class of 134 players. Of those 134 players, 91 of those players were eligible for the S41 ISFL draft, giving the retention rate for the S41 class of 67.91% for just the period of time from the DSFL draft to the ISFL draft. From that snapshot of the class to now 2 seasons later and around half of a year IRL, 61 Players remain, where 51 of those 61 are active. So, after 3 seasons, we have a “Survival” rate of 45.52% and an “Active Survival” rate of 38.06%. Now what do those numbers mean? I have absolutely no idea, I can't take these snapshots of all of these older classes behind me, and tracking how many new users from S21 are still around would be an ungodly task which I have no plan of doing. What I have foolishly done though, is go back to the S41 ISFL draft and look back at the draft positions and where the class is now. 30 of the 91 draftees are now IA, retired, but simply just do not exist in the TPE tracker anymore. So, of those 61 players, I have graphed all of those players based on; the X axis a players rank by most TPE (for example, Loose Cannon has the most TPE, so he would have a rank of 1, Ezra Azazel has the second most TPE and has a rank of 2, etc.); and the Y axis being a persons draft position
As we can see it follows a pretty normal pattern, The higher ranked you were at TPE now (8/6/2023 at the time of data grab), usually meant the better your draft position was. However, this doesn’t make a good representation of players, in respect to TPE. The difference between #1 Loose Cannon and #2 Ezra Azazel (34 TPE), is about the same as between #6 Mary Marie and #20 Rolud Onyxgut (37 TPE), which led me to create another graph, now using total TPE as an X-axis instead of TPE rank.
This graph I feel truly represents how the class looks, and we can draw many interesting conclusions from this draft (Side note, this graph does not look at position, draft conversations, or any other feelings on draft day, just someone's draft position, and their total TPE right now). You can see this almost, invisible wall form around the 700 mark, except for Loose Cannon, who is a TPE anomaly. When taking all of these points into account and running them through a calculator, the Correlation Coefficient of this graph is -.77299, which is a strong negative correlation that makes sense (The lower your draft position, the higher your TPE should be). But sometimes the biggest questions of these retrospectives are if someone was a steal or a bust/reach, which we can determine through a point’s residual. The residual here is someone's actual draft position minus what their predicted draft position would be based on their TPE. The prediction equation was y=-0.0919(x)+81.475, so for example, if I have 500 TPE now, my predicted draft position would be y=-0.0919(500)+81.475 --->y=35.525, which means my draft position should be around the 35/36 pick. However, someone's predicted draft position does not mean that that was their actual draft position. If in my example I was drafted with the 45th pick, I would have been a good value pick, but If I was picked 20th, I would have been a reach. SO without further ado, the residuals (You'll have to open in new tab for the image, to pixilated for the fourms)
The Best value pick of the draft was Forozka Duanei, who should have been taken around 21/22nd pick but was taken 52, which was an absolute steal. The biggest reach of this draft was Artemis Entreri, who should have been taken around pick 47 but was taken at pick 21.
These are all of the stats from this little thing I've done, so if you want more from this class, please ask away!
S41 is an interesting class of players and users alike. Even in its 3 seasons and 3/4th of a year irl, its been able to become a big and important class to the ISFL. 3 people for s41 already hold ISFL Positions, Baz for the New Orleans Second Line; Wizard_Literal for the New York Silverbacks; and UptownCord for the Orange County Otters. In the DSFL, 7 out of 8 teams have a completely new S41 User at one of the GM positions, Myself/Ultimate at Tijuana; JDC at Kansas City; LtHudz at Minnesota, Toofpete at Portland; aeonsjenni at Bondi Beach; Cycro at Dallas. The only team not to have a new s41 user at GM is Norfolk, even though Gumbaman has an S41 player, he created his first player in S27. Newcreates in S41 account for 43.75% of GM’s in the DSFL, and 22.72% of all GM’s across all of the ISFL/DSFL sim. However all of this GM talk is just talking about positions of power, and I think talking about the entirety of the class as a whole is much more interesting and makes for a better discussion point. In the DSFL draft for the s41 class, there was 116 pick in total, however, throughout the season, there were 18 waiver claims throughout the season (me included), giving us a total class of 134 players. Of those 134 players, 91 of those players were eligible for the S41 ISFL draft, giving the retention rate for the S41 class of 67.91% for just the period of time from the DSFL draft to the ISFL draft. From that snapshot of the class to now 2 seasons later and around half of a year IRL, 61 Players remain, where 51 of those 61 are active. So, after 3 seasons, we have a “Survival” rate of 45.52% and an “Active Survival” rate of 38.06%. Now what do those numbers mean? I have absolutely no idea, I can't take these snapshots of all of these older classes behind me, and tracking how many new users from S21 are still around would be an ungodly task which I have no plan of doing. What I have foolishly done though, is go back to the S41 ISFL draft and look back at the draft positions and where the class is now. 30 of the 91 draftees are now IA, retired, but simply just do not exist in the TPE tracker anymore. So, of those 61 players, I have graphed all of those players based on; the X axis a players rank by most TPE (for example, Loose Cannon has the most TPE, so he would have a rank of 1, Ezra Azazel has the second most TPE and has a rank of 2, etc.); and the Y axis being a persons draft position
As we can see it follows a pretty normal pattern, The higher ranked you were at TPE now (8/6/2023 at the time of data grab), usually meant the better your draft position was. However, this doesn’t make a good representation of players, in respect to TPE. The difference between #1 Loose Cannon and #2 Ezra Azazel (34 TPE), is about the same as between #6 Mary Marie and #20 Rolud Onyxgut (37 TPE), which led me to create another graph, now using total TPE as an X-axis instead of TPE rank.
This graph I feel truly represents how the class looks, and we can draw many interesting conclusions from this draft (Side note, this graph does not look at position, draft conversations, or any other feelings on draft day, just someone's draft position, and their total TPE right now). You can see this almost, invisible wall form around the 700 mark, except for Loose Cannon, who is a TPE anomaly. When taking all of these points into account and running them through a calculator, the Correlation Coefficient of this graph is -.77299, which is a strong negative correlation that makes sense (The lower your draft position, the higher your TPE should be). But sometimes the biggest questions of these retrospectives are if someone was a steal or a bust/reach, which we can determine through a point’s residual. The residual here is someone's actual draft position minus what their predicted draft position would be based on their TPE. The prediction equation was y=-0.0919(x)+81.475, so for example, if I have 500 TPE now, my predicted draft position would be y=-0.0919(500)+81.475 --->y=35.525, which means my draft position should be around the 35/36 pick. However, someone's predicted draft position does not mean that that was their actual draft position. If in my example I was drafted with the 45th pick, I would have been a good value pick, but If I was picked 20th, I would have been a reach. SO without further ado, the residuals (You'll have to open in new tab for the image, to pixilated for the fourms)
The Best value pick of the draft was Forozka Duanei, who should have been taken around 21/22nd pick but was taken 52, which was an absolute steal. The biggest reach of this draft was Artemis Entreri, who should have been taken around pick 47 but was taken at pick 21.
These are all of the stats from this little thing I've done, so if you want more from this class, please ask away!