5. “Sim gonna sim” is a popular expression in the league. Write about teams that have been graced by the sim gods and had amazing performances despite statistical odds, and/or about teams that were considered favorites but may have dealt with some bad sim luck that hampered their efforts. How much of an impact did it have on their season(s)?
The date is December 7th, 2059. The Arizona Outlaws just claimed their tenth victory of the season after a back and forth shootout against the New Orleans Second Line. Morale is at an all time high. Sitting at 7-3, Arizona is second place in the ASFC, with impressive wins over contenders such as Cape Town and New York. It’s looking like the Outlaws are going to smash the 9.5 Over that was set at the beginning of the season. For some, playoffs are already on their mind. A chance to redeem themselves and steer the franchise back to their championship ways after their heart-breaking loss in the ASFC Championship game the previous season. All that’s left is six more weeks of football against a healthy mix of playoff teams and rebuilding teams.
But not everybody thought that way. Whispers of doubt had been slowly spreading amongst national media during their 7-3 run. Some raised concerns about Winters’ ability to lead the offense. Others, about the inconsistency of the defense and the statistical decline from years past. Words like ‘fluke’ and ‘lucky’ were oft repeated in power rankings.
Week 11, vs Colorado Yeti
This game was an ugly one for both the offense and defense. The defense was getting chunked for big play after big play-but had miraculously held the Yeti offense to ‘just’ 21 points. The offense struggled in the red zone. But a touchdown from Danny Nedelko and a 50 yarder from Jay-Jamison just managed to get them to 19 points heading into the fourth quarter. The score is 19-21, 2:20 left in the game, Outlaws ball. Arizona marches down to the opposing 33 in a nerve wrecking drive including a 4th down conversion. It’s looking like Arizona will narrowly escape with a win when on 4th and 13 on COL 33, they elect to not kick the game winning field goal and decide to pass. Turnover on Downs, Yeti win. A disappointing loss, and certainly a questionable decision by the sim, but there were still five weeks to go.
Week 12, vs New York Silverbacks.
New York is a scary team, but Arizona had beaten them in Week 1 and knew they could do it again. This game had huge playoff implications. The top of the ASFC was very competitive, and a division game like this was a must-win. Arizona took a 17-6 lead at the half after two interceptions-but the game went down to the wire again after the Silverbacks turned it around in the second half. Fast forward and Outlaws are down 27-28, on their own 6 with 2:27 left on the clock. Winters’ pass to Aguilera gets picked off, game over. Silverbacks win.
Week 13, Yellowknife Wraiths
This was a must win game for the Outlaws and fortunately the Wraiths were a middling team, with 5-7 heading into the week. Unfortunately Arizona failed to capitalize on this opportunity and once again the game was dangerously close. Arizona scored a go-ahead touchdown with 1:47 left in the fourth but Yellowknife made fun of the defense as they ended up right in front of the Arizona goal line in just over a minute. Wraiths score the go-ahead field goal. Wraiths win.
Losing three games in a row with a total of five points totally killed all the momentum they had. They would go 2-1 in their remaining three games, but it was too little too late as they finished the season 9-7 and missed out on the playoffs. Now, was this series of events actually a “Sim gonna sim” moment, or was it just regression to the mean? Arizona head into S45 with some big questions regarding their aging roster.
613 words!!
The date is December 7th, 2059. The Arizona Outlaws just claimed their tenth victory of the season after a back and forth shootout against the New Orleans Second Line. Morale is at an all time high. Sitting at 7-3, Arizona is second place in the ASFC, with impressive wins over contenders such as Cape Town and New York. It’s looking like the Outlaws are going to smash the 9.5 Over that was set at the beginning of the season. For some, playoffs are already on their mind. A chance to redeem themselves and steer the franchise back to their championship ways after their heart-breaking loss in the ASFC Championship game the previous season. All that’s left is six more weeks of football against a healthy mix of playoff teams and rebuilding teams.
But not everybody thought that way. Whispers of doubt had been slowly spreading amongst national media during their 7-3 run. Some raised concerns about Winters’ ability to lead the offense. Others, about the inconsistency of the defense and the statistical decline from years past. Words like ‘fluke’ and ‘lucky’ were oft repeated in power rankings.
Week 11, vs Colorado Yeti
This game was an ugly one for both the offense and defense. The defense was getting chunked for big play after big play-but had miraculously held the Yeti offense to ‘just’ 21 points. The offense struggled in the red zone. But a touchdown from Danny Nedelko and a 50 yarder from Jay-Jamison just managed to get them to 19 points heading into the fourth quarter. The score is 19-21, 2:20 left in the game, Outlaws ball. Arizona marches down to the opposing 33 in a nerve wrecking drive including a 4th down conversion. It’s looking like Arizona will narrowly escape with a win when on 4th and 13 on COL 33, they elect to not kick the game winning field goal and decide to pass. Turnover on Downs, Yeti win. A disappointing loss, and certainly a questionable decision by the sim, but there were still five weeks to go.
Week 12, vs New York Silverbacks.
New York is a scary team, but Arizona had beaten them in Week 1 and knew they could do it again. This game had huge playoff implications. The top of the ASFC was very competitive, and a division game like this was a must-win. Arizona took a 17-6 lead at the half after two interceptions-but the game went down to the wire again after the Silverbacks turned it around in the second half. Fast forward and Outlaws are down 27-28, on their own 6 with 2:27 left on the clock. Winters’ pass to Aguilera gets picked off, game over. Silverbacks win.
Week 13, Yellowknife Wraiths
This was a must win game for the Outlaws and fortunately the Wraiths were a middling team, with 5-7 heading into the week. Unfortunately Arizona failed to capitalize on this opportunity and once again the game was dangerously close. Arizona scored a go-ahead touchdown with 1:47 left in the fourth but Yellowknife made fun of the defense as they ended up right in front of the Arizona goal line in just over a minute. Wraiths score the go-ahead field goal. Wraiths win.
Losing three games in a row with a total of five points totally killed all the momentum they had. They would go 2-1 in their remaining three games, but it was too little too late as they finished the season 9-7 and missed out on the playoffs. Now, was this series of events actually a “Sim gonna sim” moment, or was it just regression to the mean? Arizona head into S45 with some big questions regarding their aging roster.
613 words!!