10 TPE Tier: Prompt 5
Who got lucky?
Austin Copperheads
Orange County Otters
The ASFC was a bloodbath; it's a mess with many teams scrapping to get above .500. No team lucked into a full game, but OCO and our Ultimus Champions came the closest. The Expected Wins knock OCO down from 4th in the division to 5th and our reigning champs down from 2nd to 4th. "Ringz" culture makes this irrelevant and further proof that Austin was the team of destiny.
Who got unlucky?
New Orleans Second Line
San Jose SaberCats
Does this change much for their fortunes? No, but it places each of them as a 6 or 7-win team. Further proof that the floor is higher in the ASFC, even the bad teams aren't that bad! It's no wonder that NOLA and SJS stocks are going crazy in Lemon's Stock Market Game; they are teams on the upswing that outplayed their records last season.
Who has the Sim made a powerful enemy with?
New York Silverbacks
Let the Big Apple Agenda begin! 1.2 games below expectation. The sim has it out for Primate Posse, and I won't stand for it. 8-8 on the scoreboard and missing the playoffs, the expected wins have the Silverbacks at 9.2 and placing second in the ASFC. Frank Dux and Co. will no doubt seek revenge against the entropy of the Sim this semester -- and this season will go down as an all-time rig job by the Sim. I will never forget. #NewYorkPosting
Who got lucky?
Colorado Yeti
Berlin Fire Salamanders
The Sim was KIND to the Yeti, snatching two extra games than expected and a relatively 1.3 added games for the Fire Salamanders. The expected win rate really changes the standings of the NSFC, with Baltimore taking the top spot at 8.1 expected wins and Sarasota at 8.5 wins. Does this suggest Sarasota's run to the Ultimus was less fairytale than expected? Maybe! But the Yeti's record seemed a little puffed up according to the formula.
Who got unlucky?
Yellowknife Wraiths
It's sobering to see that the Wraiths may have been cut short in an extra 2.5(!) games! Someone has to lose, and especially in a tough ASFC, the Wraiths getting the brunt of some bad beats may look worse on the win-loss column than it was. After getting the first-round overall pick this season, I expect the Wraiths to get close to 6 wins again.
Cape Town Crash
Their win expectancy put them at 7.7 wins last season: If someone gives you a chance to bet on over 6.5 wins, YOU HAMMER THAT BET.
Sim Giveth and Sim Taketh Away
ISFL Pythagorean Wins Above/Below Expectation
ISFL Pythagorean Wins Above/Below Expectation
Let's go! For those who haven't read Amkalytics, I'm glad you're a healthy and whole person who avoids reading drivel online. The Pythagorean Expectation is a formula created by Bill James for baseball and adapted for football, which I am desecrating for the ISFL. Sometimes things lose by a little, and sometimes teams win by a lot, but the Pythagorean Expectation looks at what a team's season-long Points For/Points against split is. Looking at a team's Points For (PF) and Points Against (PA), the expectation spits out how many wins, based on PF/PA, you'd EXPECT a team to have. As we know, fate and the sim have other plans for teams. Teams with a NEGATIVE value means that they have fewer Scoreboard Wins than Expected Wins - aka -- they got unlucky. Teams with a Positive value have fewer expected wins than scoreboard wins - aka - they got lucky and stole some games.
Does it make sense? Who cares.
Does it make sense? Who cares.
We will take a peek at each conference and think about what COULD have been if teams played up or down to their expectations!
Thanks for grading this!
Who got lucky?
Austin Copperheads
Orange County Otters
The ASFC was a bloodbath; it's a mess with many teams scrapping to get above .500. No team lucked into a full game, but OCO and our Ultimus Champions came the closest. The Expected Wins knock OCO down from 4th in the division to 5th and our reigning champs down from 2nd to 4th. "Ringz" culture makes this irrelevant and further proof that Austin was the team of destiny.
Who got unlucky?
New Orleans Second Line
San Jose SaberCats
Does this change much for their fortunes? No, but it places each of them as a 6 or 7-win team. Further proof that the floor is higher in the ASFC, even the bad teams aren't that bad! It's no wonder that NOLA and SJS stocks are going crazy in Lemon's Stock Market Game; they are teams on the upswing that outplayed their records last season.
Who has the Sim made a powerful enemy with?
New York Silverbacks
Let the Big Apple Agenda begin! 1.2 games below expectation. The sim has it out for Primate Posse, and I won't stand for it. 8-8 on the scoreboard and missing the playoffs, the expected wins have the Silverbacks at 9.2 and placing second in the ASFC. Frank Dux and Co. will no doubt seek revenge against the entropy of the Sim this semester -- and this season will go down as an all-time rig job by the Sim. I will never forget. #NewYorkPosting
Who got lucky?
Colorado Yeti
Berlin Fire Salamanders
The Sim was KIND to the Yeti, snatching two extra games than expected and a relatively 1.3 added games for the Fire Salamanders. The expected win rate really changes the standings of the NSFC, with Baltimore taking the top spot at 8.1 expected wins and Sarasota at 8.5 wins. Does this suggest Sarasota's run to the Ultimus was less fairytale than expected? Maybe! But the Yeti's record seemed a little puffed up according to the formula.
Who got unlucky?
Yellowknife Wraiths
It's sobering to see that the Wraiths may have been cut short in an extra 2.5(!) games! Someone has to lose, and especially in a tough ASFC, the Wraiths getting the brunt of some bad beats may look worse on the win-loss column than it was. After getting the first-round overall pick this season, I expect the Wraiths to get close to 6 wins again.
Cape Town Crash
Their win expectancy put them at 7.7 wins last season: If someone gives you a chance to bet on over 6.5 wins, YOU HAMMER THAT BET.