With 12 weeks down, I wanted to take some time to talk about season success, playoff implications, and snapshot the league as a whole as opposed to just talking about penalties. I will still include them, but let’s look a bit more in-depth.
In the Western Conference, the playoff picture isn’t completely set, but the Chicago Blues have clinched both a playoff berth AND home field advantage with two weeks still left to play.
Chicago Blues: 8-4 (1st)
PF/A: 212/214 (4th)
Penalty Yards: 542 (3rd)
That PD is NOT a typo. Despite winning twice as many games as they’ve lost, the Blues still have a negative point differential. It’s uncanny. Of their 8 wins, only ONE was by multiple possessions. They play poorly, but things just go their way. I think the best example is in QB play. Chicago leads the league in interceptions thrown with 20 (you’ll see an almost inverse relationship between QB play and success as we go), yet I never see them throw pick sixes. Given how likely offenses are to stall, pick sixes are extremely important in this league. Now, despite giving defenses the most opportunities to score on them, not only have they not suffered the most, they actually LEAD THE LEAGUE in defensive touchdowns! How? How does a team with the 5th most interceptions have the MOST defensive TDs? Great luck. Add to that being in the bottom half of penalty yards and the record HOPEFULLY makes more sense. To give an example on the importance of penalty yards, the Blues and Marshals (currently top 2 teams in the league) played each other twice, once at each location. San Antonio won the combined turnover battle 3 (2 Ints, 1 fumble) to 6 (6 interceptions). Chicago was penalized for 55 yards. San Antonio was penalized for 160. Chicago won both games, both by one possession. Of the SIX interceptions on Strike, the Marshals had a total of 13 return yards, and none of them for touchdowns. Even in what should be a game-changing play, none of those really turned things around. The TWO interceptions the Marshals threw, though? 34 return yards? How the living FUCK? It’s so bad that @Jiggly_333 requested an article to try to explain why his team, which doesn’t update strategies and doesn’t go after waiver claims, is doing so well. I’ll make it simple. It’s pure fucking luck, and I’ve given up on expecting it to run out.
Norfolk SeaWolves: 5-7 (4th)
PF/A: 211/210 (3rd)
Penalty Yards: 624 (4th)
If the Blues are succeeding due to luck, the SeaWolves are failing because of it. Christian Adams is the highest TPE QB in the DSFL, with two above average WR targets all season long. Despite that, he has 12 TDs to 14 INTs. Unlike Chicago, though, he throws pick sixes. What’s amazing is that the SeaWolves are still the #1 offense in yardage by a LARGE margin, as they are 1st in passing yards and 2nd in rushing. The 1st place team in rushing yards, by the way, is FIFTH in passing. Hell, their defense is 2nd in yards allowed. Really, this team should be doing very well, and in truth, they aren’t out of it yet. Their next two games include a home game against Kansas City (which should be a win), and what will likely be an in-season playoff game against Portland with the winner moving onto the postseason. No matter what happens, though, this team is not losing a lot of talent in the offseason, and holds the most draft capital going in to next season. Don’t feel too sorry for them.
Portland Pythons: 4-8 (6th)
PF/A: 170/199 (5th)
Penalty Yards: 513 (2nd)
Despite being the worst-ranked team in the league, Portland actually has around the third-best chance of being the inaugural season Relicum Trophy holder. It makes little sense at first glance, but Portland has three VERY important things in their favor. 1) They have active players who are getting better. 2) Both of their remaining games are home games. 3) Both of their remaining games are conference games. That’s right, their next two games are against Chicago and Norfolk, and both will be played in Portland. That means that the smart money is on Portland AND Norfolk finishing the season 6-8, but Portland advancing to the playoffs based on conference record. That scenario would leave Norfolk as the only team in the West with a positive point differential and the only team not moving on. How wonderfully appropriate an ending.
All right, now let’s look at a slightly more competitive conference.
San Antonio Marshals: 7-5 (2nd)
PF/A: 197/161 (2nd)
Penalty Yards: 745 (6th)
The Marshals have had to overcome a lot of adversity in their inaugural season. Not only did they have the most damage done to them due to penalties, but they also had to start the league’s worst QB for 4 games. In fact, the Marshals are now on their third and fortunately best QB so far this year. Let’s take a moment and compare them and see if you can figure out which one I think was flaming garbage.
Aaron Rasheed: 128 att, 703 yds, 0 TD, 8 INT
Vincent Draxel: 116 att, 659 yds, 1 TD, 6 INT
Jameis Christ: 115 att, 654 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
The fact that the Marshals went 2-2 with Rasheed as their starter should be enough to give them the damn trophy by itself. While the Marshals offense is improving though, it’s been the defense that really carried this team, as the Marshals have allowed the fewest points and forced the most turnovers. By leading the league in rushing TDs, San Antonio has been able to score just enough to squeak out wins. Despite currently sitting atop the East, the Marshals are at high risk of losing home field advantage, as Kansas City has the same overall record. In addition, the last two games the Marshals play are on the road against Kansas City and Tijuana, both conference opponents. If they lose to Kansas City, then the Coyotes, who strongly hold the tiebreaker in points for, will take the conference. Basically, though, San Antonio potentially has TWO chances to beat KC on the road, and they only need to succeed once. Is that likely? Read below.
Kansas City Coyotes: 7-5 (3rd)
PF/A: 230-183 (1st)
Penalty Yards: 731 (5th)
@124715 and @WinstonKodogo deserve two things from DSFL fans, laughter at not applying “call-up risk” in their draft board, and applause at working wonderfully with what they have. Despite being the most damaged team by call-ups, the Coyotes just keep winning big games, including 3 on the road (tied for the best). Two of those road wins were conference games, too, giving them a minor advantage going in to the last two games. They face Norfolk on the road in week 13, and they will likely lose, but that game is completely unimportant. If they beat San Antonio in KC week 14, they automatically win the conference. Can they do it? Well, they have managed to beat the Marshals on the road…but they’ve also lost to them at home. While home field does still give them an advantage, I would say that is more than cancelled out by loss of kicker/punter Joseph Lombardi, who will play his final two games in the NSFL. Lombardi has placed the most kicks inside the 20 in the DSFL, and has made the second-most FGs in the league, including the only 50+ yarder. Losing him means taking on a TOUGH opponent without the benefit of being able to play a field position game or taking long field goal attempts. I’d say that lowers their odds. And while most teams can count on penalties to beat the Marshals, the Coyotes have been just as unlucky, averaging about 1 yard less per game, hardly a meaningful advantage. I’m going to give them a slight edge to beat the Marshals once, but I don’t see it happening twice in a row now that the Marshals have a competent QB. They are definitely going to try though, because next year they won’t have a second round pick to improve with.
Tijuana Luchadores: 5-7 (5th)
PF/A: 184-237 (6th)
Penalty Yards: 438 (1st)
If there is one team that can argue they were hardest hit by call-ups, it is definitely Tijuana. Losing both Connor Tanner and Big Bot meant the league’s best defensive player by a WIDE margin as well as the second-best TE. This team has been getting destroyed since their loss, though some of that is likely due to lack of strategy. The Luchadores have NEVER looked at a player and thought “nah, he doesn’t fit my scheme.” I wonder if they know what their scheme is. On top of being hurt so badly, their star offensive player and kick returner Rich Gucci retires at the end of the year, meaning this team will only get worse.
Here are my final predictions:
West
Chicago: 9-5 (win conference, make it to championship)
Norfolk: 7-7
Portland: 5-9
East:
San Antonio/Kansas City: 8-6 (San Antonio makes it to championship)
Tijuana: 6-8
GRADED
In the Western Conference, the playoff picture isn’t completely set, but the Chicago Blues have clinched both a playoff berth AND home field advantage with two weeks still left to play.
Chicago Blues: 8-4 (1st)
PF/A: 212/214 (4th)
Penalty Yards: 542 (3rd)
That PD is NOT a typo. Despite winning twice as many games as they’ve lost, the Blues still have a negative point differential. It’s uncanny. Of their 8 wins, only ONE was by multiple possessions. They play poorly, but things just go their way. I think the best example is in QB play. Chicago leads the league in interceptions thrown with 20 (you’ll see an almost inverse relationship between QB play and success as we go), yet I never see them throw pick sixes. Given how likely offenses are to stall, pick sixes are extremely important in this league. Now, despite giving defenses the most opportunities to score on them, not only have they not suffered the most, they actually LEAD THE LEAGUE in defensive touchdowns! How? How does a team with the 5th most interceptions have the MOST defensive TDs? Great luck. Add to that being in the bottom half of penalty yards and the record HOPEFULLY makes more sense. To give an example on the importance of penalty yards, the Blues and Marshals (currently top 2 teams in the league) played each other twice, once at each location. San Antonio won the combined turnover battle 3 (2 Ints, 1 fumble) to 6 (6 interceptions). Chicago was penalized for 55 yards. San Antonio was penalized for 160. Chicago won both games, both by one possession. Of the SIX interceptions on Strike, the Marshals had a total of 13 return yards, and none of them for touchdowns. Even in what should be a game-changing play, none of those really turned things around. The TWO interceptions the Marshals threw, though? 34 return yards? How the living FUCK? It’s so bad that @Jiggly_333 requested an article to try to explain why his team, which doesn’t update strategies and doesn’t go after waiver claims, is doing so well. I’ll make it simple. It’s pure fucking luck, and I’ve given up on expecting it to run out.
Norfolk SeaWolves: 5-7 (4th)
PF/A: 211/210 (3rd)
Penalty Yards: 624 (4th)
If the Blues are succeeding due to luck, the SeaWolves are failing because of it. Christian Adams is the highest TPE QB in the DSFL, with two above average WR targets all season long. Despite that, he has 12 TDs to 14 INTs. Unlike Chicago, though, he throws pick sixes. What’s amazing is that the SeaWolves are still the #1 offense in yardage by a LARGE margin, as they are 1st in passing yards and 2nd in rushing. The 1st place team in rushing yards, by the way, is FIFTH in passing. Hell, their defense is 2nd in yards allowed. Really, this team should be doing very well, and in truth, they aren’t out of it yet. Their next two games include a home game against Kansas City (which should be a win), and what will likely be an in-season playoff game against Portland with the winner moving onto the postseason. No matter what happens, though, this team is not losing a lot of talent in the offseason, and holds the most draft capital going in to next season. Don’t feel too sorry for them.
Portland Pythons: 4-8 (6th)
PF/A: 170/199 (5th)
Penalty Yards: 513 (2nd)
Despite being the worst-ranked team in the league, Portland actually has around the third-best chance of being the inaugural season Relicum Trophy holder. It makes little sense at first glance, but Portland has three VERY important things in their favor. 1) They have active players who are getting better. 2) Both of their remaining games are home games. 3) Both of their remaining games are conference games. That’s right, their next two games are against Chicago and Norfolk, and both will be played in Portland. That means that the smart money is on Portland AND Norfolk finishing the season 6-8, but Portland advancing to the playoffs based on conference record. That scenario would leave Norfolk as the only team in the West with a positive point differential and the only team not moving on. How wonderfully appropriate an ending.
All right, now let’s look at a slightly more competitive conference.
San Antonio Marshals: 7-5 (2nd)
PF/A: 197/161 (2nd)
Penalty Yards: 745 (6th)
The Marshals have had to overcome a lot of adversity in their inaugural season. Not only did they have the most damage done to them due to penalties, but they also had to start the league’s worst QB for 4 games. In fact, the Marshals are now on their third and fortunately best QB so far this year. Let’s take a moment and compare them and see if you can figure out which one I think was flaming garbage.
Aaron Rasheed: 128 att, 703 yds, 0 TD, 8 INT
Vincent Draxel: 116 att, 659 yds, 1 TD, 6 INT
Jameis Christ: 115 att, 654 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
The fact that the Marshals went 2-2 with Rasheed as their starter should be enough to give them the damn trophy by itself. While the Marshals offense is improving though, it’s been the defense that really carried this team, as the Marshals have allowed the fewest points and forced the most turnovers. By leading the league in rushing TDs, San Antonio has been able to score just enough to squeak out wins. Despite currently sitting atop the East, the Marshals are at high risk of losing home field advantage, as Kansas City has the same overall record. In addition, the last two games the Marshals play are on the road against Kansas City and Tijuana, both conference opponents. If they lose to Kansas City, then the Coyotes, who strongly hold the tiebreaker in points for, will take the conference. Basically, though, San Antonio potentially has TWO chances to beat KC on the road, and they only need to succeed once. Is that likely? Read below.
Kansas City Coyotes: 7-5 (3rd)
PF/A: 230-183 (1st)
Penalty Yards: 731 (5th)
@124715 and @WinstonKodogo deserve two things from DSFL fans, laughter at not applying “call-up risk” in their draft board, and applause at working wonderfully with what they have. Despite being the most damaged team by call-ups, the Coyotes just keep winning big games, including 3 on the road (tied for the best). Two of those road wins were conference games, too, giving them a minor advantage going in to the last two games. They face Norfolk on the road in week 13, and they will likely lose, but that game is completely unimportant. If they beat San Antonio in KC week 14, they automatically win the conference. Can they do it? Well, they have managed to beat the Marshals on the road…but they’ve also lost to them at home. While home field does still give them an advantage, I would say that is more than cancelled out by loss of kicker/punter Joseph Lombardi, who will play his final two games in the NSFL. Lombardi has placed the most kicks inside the 20 in the DSFL, and has made the second-most FGs in the league, including the only 50+ yarder. Losing him means taking on a TOUGH opponent without the benefit of being able to play a field position game or taking long field goal attempts. I’d say that lowers their odds. And while most teams can count on penalties to beat the Marshals, the Coyotes have been just as unlucky, averaging about 1 yard less per game, hardly a meaningful advantage. I’m going to give them a slight edge to beat the Marshals once, but I don’t see it happening twice in a row now that the Marshals have a competent QB. They are definitely going to try though, because next year they won’t have a second round pick to improve with.
Tijuana Luchadores: 5-7 (5th)
PF/A: 184-237 (6th)
Penalty Yards: 438 (1st)
If there is one team that can argue they were hardest hit by call-ups, it is definitely Tijuana. Losing both Connor Tanner and Big Bot meant the league’s best defensive player by a WIDE margin as well as the second-best TE. This team has been getting destroyed since their loss, though some of that is likely due to lack of strategy. The Luchadores have NEVER looked at a player and thought “nah, he doesn’t fit my scheme.” I wonder if they know what their scheme is. On top of being hurt so badly, their star offensive player and kick returner Rich Gucci retires at the end of the year, meaning this team will only get worse.
Here are my final predictions:
West
Chicago: 9-5 (win conference, make it to championship)
Norfolk: 7-7
Portland: 5-9
East:
San Antonio/Kansas City: 8-6 (San Antonio makes it to championship)
Tijuana: 6-8
GRADED